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Business Recorder
21-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil prices ease on geopolitical uncertainty
NEW YORK: Oil prices fell on Tuesday due to uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while new government data delivered a cautious outlook for top crude-importer China's economy. Brent futures were down 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $65.12 a barrel at 11:02 a.m. EDT (1502 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 26 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.43. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said US demands that Tehran stop enriching uranium are 'excessive and outrageous,' voicing doubts whether talks on a new nuclear deal will succeed. Iran was the third-biggest crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) group in 2024 behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to US federal energy data. A deal between Iran and the US would allow Iran to raise oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day if sanctions were eased, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. The European Union and Britain announced new sanctions against Russia without waiting for the US to join them, a day after US President Donald Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin without winning a promise for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Ukraine wants the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies to reduce their price cap on Russian seaborne oil to $30 per barrel. The current G7 cap, imposed over Russia's war in Ukraine, is $60. 'An immediate resolution of the Russia/Ukraine war does, however, look unlikely. So while it could lead to more oil from Russia into the market, it is out in time and uncertain as Russia is still bound by its obligation to OPEC+,' said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, a Nordic bank. An agreement to end the war between Russia and Ukraine could allow Moscow to export more oil to the world.
Business Times
20-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Oil prices little changed on geopolitical uncertainty, weak China demand signals
[NEW YORK] Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday (May 20) due to uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while new government data delivered a cautious outlook for top crude importer China's economy. Brent futures slid 16 US cents, or 0.2 per cent, to settle at US$65.38 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 13 US cents, or 0.2 per cent, to settle at US$62.56. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said US demands that Tehran stop enriching uranium are 'excessive and outrageous', voicing doubts whether talks on a new nuclear deal will succeed. A deal between Iran and the US would allow Iran to raise oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day if sanctions were eased, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. Iran was the third-biggest crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) group in 2024 behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to US federal energy data. The European Union and Britain announced new sanctions against Russia without waiting for the US to join them, a day after US President Donald Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin without winning a promise for a ceasefire in Ukraine. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Ukraine wants the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies to reduce their price cap on Russian seaborne oil to US$30 per barrel. The current G7 cap, imposed over Russia's war in Ukraine, is US$60. 'An immediate resolution of the Russia/Ukraine war does, however, look unlikely. So while it could lead to more oil from Russia into the market, it is out in time and uncertain as Russia is still bound by its obligation to Opec+,' said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, a Nordic bank. An agreement to end the war between Russia and Ukraine could allow Moscow to export more oil to the world. Russia is a member of the Opec+ group of countries, which includes Opec and other producers. Russia was the world's second-biggest crude producer behind the US in 2024, according to US federal energy data. Chinese data At least seven Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak on Tuesday. Traders currently expect the US central bank to deliver at least two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts in 2025, with the first expected in September, according to data compiled by financial services firm LSEG. Central banks such as the Fed use interest rates to keep price inflation in check. Lower interest rates can spur economic growth and demand for oil by reducing consumer borrowing costs. Data showing decelerating industrial output growth and retail sales in China piled more pressure on oil prices, with analysts expecting a slowdown in fuel demand from the world's top oil importer. The analysis, however, did not reflect a 90-day pause on tariffs between the US and China, with Goldman Sachs pointing to a pickup in China trade flows late on Monday. In Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil promised swift measures to boost investment amid global trade uncertainty. US oil inventories The American Petroleum Institute trade group and the US Energy Information Administration are due to release US oil inventory data on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Analysts forecast energy firms pulled about 1.2 million barrels of oil from US stockpiles during the week ended May 16. If correct, that would be the third decline in four weeks. There was an increase of 1.8 million barrels during the same week last year, with the average decrease at 3.5 million barrels over the past five years (2020 to 2024). REUTERS
Business Recorder
20-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil steadies as market assesses US-Iran talks, demand signals
LONDON: Oil prices steadied on Tuesday due to uncertainty in U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while new government data delivered a cautious outlook for top crude-importer China's economy. Brent futures for July slipped 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $64.75 a barrel by 0947 GMT. June U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, which expire on Tuesday were flat at $64.8, while the more active July contract was down 5 cents, or around 0.1%, at $62.1 a barrel. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei voiced doubts over whether nuclear talks with the U.S. will lead to an agreement, Mehr News reported, as Tehran reviews a proposal to hold a fifth round of negotiations. Oil steadies as US, China growth concerns weigh A deal between the two countries would allow Iran to raise oil exports by 300,000 barrels to 400,000 barrels per day if sanctions were eased, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. Prices were capped by U.S. President Donald Trump indicating that he was not ready to join Europe with fresh sanctions to pressure Moscow, while President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine would immediately start negotiations for a ceasefire. 'An immediate resolution of the Russia/Ukraine war does however look unlikely. So while it could lead to more oil from Russia into the market, it is out in time and uncertain as Russia is still bound by its obligation to OPEC+,' chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said. Piling more pressure on oil prices was data showing decelerating industrial output growth and retail sales in China, the world's top oil importer, with analysts expecting a slowdown in fuel demand. However, the analysis did not reflect a 90-day pause on tariffs between the U.S. and China, with Goldman Sachs pointing to a pickup in China trade flows late on Monday. Beyond macroeconomics, geopolitics and the current headline-trading environment, it is hard to ascertain when 'the mood would take a handbrake turn,' analyst Tamas Varga wrote to clients.
Business Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Oil settles up as signs of US-Iran impasse counter economic concerns
[NEW YORK] Oil prices settled marginally higher on Monday as signs of a breakdown in US talks with Iran over its nuclear programme offset a Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. Brent crude futures settled 13 cents higher at US$65.54 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude closed up 20 cents at US$62.69 a barrel. Both contracts rose more than 1 per cent last week. Nuclear talks will lead nowhere if Washington insists that Tehran stop its uranium enrichment activity, Iranian state media quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi as saying on Monday. That remark dented hopes for an agreement, which would have paved the way for the easing of US sanctions and allowed Iran to raise its oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. 'That potential increase looks very unlikely now.' The US sovereign credit downgrade by Moody's raised questions about the economic health of the world's largest oil consuming nation. Pressure also came from news of slowing industrial output growth and retail sales in China, the top oil importer. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'The weaker-than-expected Chinese data is not helping crude oil, although I would describe the setback as modest,' said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Additional pressure came from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs at the rate he threatened last month on trading partners that do not negotiate in 'good faith.' Oil prices are likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future as investors look for updates on the tariffs, US-Iran negotiations, and talks to end the war in Ukraine, said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. Russian President Vladimir Putin, after a call with Trump on Monday, said Moscow was ready to work with Ukraine on a memorandum about a future peace accord and that efforts to end the war were on the right track. An end to the Ukraine war would pave the way for the lifting of some Western sanctions against Moscow's oil sales, potentially boosting global supply and adding more pressure to oil prices, said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. REUTERS
Business Recorder
10-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Oil prices rise on optimism
NEW YORK: Oil prices settled nearly 2% higher on Friday and notched their first weekly gains since mid-April as a US trade deal with the United Kingdom turned investors optimistic ahead of talks between top officials from Washington and Beijing. Brent crude futures rose $1.07, or 1.7%, to settle at $63.91 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced $1.11, or about 1.9%, to settle at $61.02. Week-over-week, both benchmarks gained over 4%. US President Donald Trump on Friday said China should open its market to the US, and that an 80% tariff on Chinese goods 'seems right,' a day after he announced a deal lowering tariffs on British car and steel exports, among other agreements with the United Kingdom. 'Energy markets - as bearish as they've been - are finally shaking off some of the pessimism and catching the broader market optimism that's showing back up as progress on trade relationships has begun,' said Alex Hodes, oil analyst at brokerage StoneX. The UK agreement and Trump's comments on China have raised hopes for similar deals between Washington and Beijing. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was to meet with China's top economic official Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland on May 10. Current US tariffs on Chinese imports stand at 145%. 'While prohibitively high, you can't knock the math ... 80% is substantially less than 145%,' Hodes wrote to clients. Chinese exports rose faster than expected in April while imports narrowed their decline, customs data showed on Friday, giving Beijing some relief ahead of the talks. Rising hostilities in the Middle East also boosted oil prices this week, Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at trading platform Tradu, said. Israel's military said it had intercepted a missile launched from Yemen towards its territory, days after Oman mediated a ceasefire between the US and Yemen's Houthis, who claimed responsibility for Friday's attack.
