Latest news with #American-brokered
Politico
3 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Ukraine's big drone gamble
TALKING TURKEY — Russian and Ukrainian diplomats were sitting down today in Istanbul for American-brokered peace talks when the first explosions went off. Using drones launched from disguised cargo trucks, Kyiv's special forces struck military targets deep inside Russia, blowing up billions of dollars-worth of strategic warplanes at airbases as far away as Siberia. As much as a third of the nuclear-capable bomber fleet has been damaged. Now, with President Donald Trump pushing for negotiations to end the war, the daring move could swing momentum back in favor of Ukraine. 'The operation was very timely, there's no doubt about that,' Oleg Ustenko, who served as a top advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy until last year, told POLITICO Nightly. 'You could clearly see from the faces of the Russian delegation in Turkey that they are not so brave or so rude as they once were and it showed the White House and the new president what we can do.' 'Trump said we don't have the cards — this shows we do have the cards, and we can play them.' So far, the Russians have shown no sign of living up to the White House's assessment that the Kremlin is negotiating in good faith, pounding cities across Ukraine with missiles and killing dozens of civilians. Trump has himself voiced frustration at the lack of progress, writing that Russian leader Vladimir Putin 'has gone absolutely CRAZY' and the refusal to do a deal 'will lead to the downfall of Russia!' For the time being, that standstill looks unlikely to change. In a statement issued this evening, Moscow claimed it was ready to sign a ceasefire, but with the improbable condition that Ukraine hand over vast swathes of its territory, including major cities the Russian armed forces have never been able to occupy. The sudden hybrid counter-offensive has left Putin with few ways to respond, according to Oleg Ignatov from Crisis Group. 'The Kremlin's options for escalation beyond its current tactic of wearing down Ukraine are limited and risky,' he said. 'For now, all eyes are on negotiations, present and future — the true targets of both Russia's and Ukraine's military operations.' The head of the Ukrainian president's office, Andriy Yermak, said the brazen refusal to make concessions showed the Russian side is 'doing everything they can to avoid a ceasefire and continue the war.' Now, Trump might have to roll up his sleeves and get involved to try and save the process. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan today offered to hold three-way peace talks with Putin and Zelenskyy, while the White House has said Trump would be 'open' to an invitation. Meanwhile, pro-Ukrainian Republicans are trying to nudge the White House into taking a tougher line. The same day, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Berlin to build support for new sanctions on Russia, with the pair discussing how to put 'further pressure' on Putin, including by further tightening the noose around the Kremlin's oil and gas revenues. With the White House increasingly angry at Russia and Ukraine's allies circling the wagons, Moscow's plans to buy time seem to be leaving it more and more isolated — while the cost of its war rises and some of its most expensive military hardware burns in a Siberian field. 'If we secure a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, we want to have our allies around the table,' said Ustenko. 'The Russians will go alone — we'll be trying to build a team.' Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@ Or contact tonight's author at ggavin@ What'd I Miss? — Trump blames immigration policy for Boulder attack: President Donald Trump blamed an attack in Boulder, Colorado, that injured at least eight people who were demonstrating in support of the release of Israeli hostages on lax U.S. immigration laws. In a post on Truth Social, Trump seized on the attack's implications for immigration policy after a Department of Homeland Security official wrote in a social media post this morning the suspect in the attack had overstayed his visa and was in the country illegally. The FBI is investigating the incident as an act of terror, with local authorities identifying the suspect as 45-year-old Mohamed Sabry Soliman of Colorado Springs. Soliman, who was encountered on the scene, is in custody has been charged with a federal hate crime, according to an FBI affidavit. — Sean Gallagher named interim Capitol Police chief: The U.S. Capitol Police will be led by Assistant Chief Sean Gallagher on an acting basis while a search continues for a new permanent leader, the department confirmed today. Gallagher's appointment by the Capitol Police Board comes after Chief Thomas Manger retired last month after about four years on the job. Gallagher is seen by some in the department as a strong contender for the permanent position after having held a variety of roles within the department over the past two decades. Gallagher, who oversees uniformed operations as one of three assistant chiefs, has been with the department since 2001. — Pentagon to redraw command map to more closely align Greenland with the US: The Pentagon is poised to shift its oversight of Greenland by putting it under U.S. Northern Command, a symbolic gesture that would more closely align the island territory with the U.S. as President Donald Trump continues to show interest in taking control over the Arctic landmass. The shift in oversight, which could come as soon as this week, could also help the U.S. broaden its Golden Dome missile shield by providing more radars for coverage. Under the plan, Greenland would shift from European Command's jurisdiction to Northern Command, which is responsible for overseeing the security of North America, according to a DOD official and two people familiar with the planning. — Supreme Court to consider reviving case over counting ballots after Election Day: The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a Republican lawmaker's challenge to an Illinois state law requiring election authorities to count mail-in ballots received up to two weeks after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked or certified by the voter as being cast by that date. The lawsuit brought by six-term Rep. Mike Bost is one of a series of cases President Donald Trump's allies have filed seeking to exclude votes received after Election Day from official results. AROUND THE WORLD PUT IT TO A VOTE — Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk intends to call a parliamentary vote of confidence in his government following the victory of opposition-backed Karol Nawrocki in Sunday's presidential election, he said this evening. 'I want everyone to see, including our opponents at home and abroad, that we are ready for this situation, that we understand the gravity of the moment, but that we do not intend to take a single step back,' Tusk said. Nawrocki, a right-wing populist who counts U.S. President Donald Trump among his allies, will aim to use the presidency to block Tusk's domestic agenda. His election victory casts doubt on whether Tusk's government can make meaningful progress on social security reform, restoring the rule of law, or on hot-button issues like allowing same-sex partnerships or loosening Poland's strict abortion rules. COURT ORDERED — A Berlin court ruled today that the German government's push to turn away asylum-seekers at the country's borders is unlawful, upending a key feature of conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz's promised crackdown on migration. 'People who submit an asylum application during border controls on German territory may not be turned back,' the court said in a statement on its decision. The ruling came in response to a complaint by three Somali asylum-seekers who crossed into Germany from Poland in May, but were then returned by German police. The ruling poses a major challenge to Merz, who in the lead up to his conservatives' election victory earlier this year promised to implement an 'effective entry ban' on undocumented migrants and asylum-seekers from his first day in office. Merz made that promise under pressure from the rising far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which ran on an anti-immigration platform and is now the country's strongest opposition party. Nightly Number RADAR SWEEP DATA GOLD MINE — A pioneer in the digital space, Brazil champions a first-of-its-kind data monetization program allowing its citizens to sell their digital data in a skyrocketing, multibillion dollar global data market. The program, named 'dWallet' is the product of a public-private partnership that coincides with the deliberation of a 2023 federal bill designating data as personal property. Advocates acclaim the initiative's potential to empower individuals in the digital market, but critics argue it could target Brazil's most vulnerable rural populations into selling their private information. Gabriel Daros reports for Rest of World from São Paulo, Brazil. Parting Image Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
6 days ago
- Politics
President Trump thinks Gaza ceasefire is close
President Trump says he thinks an American-brokered ceasefire deal is close as the humanitarian crisis continues to grow.
Yahoo
26-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's Black Sea truce plan is a 'gift to Russia' that risks undermining sanctions, analysts warn
The American-brokered deal for a maritime ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine looks little more than a dream Kremlin wish-list and another example of President Donald Trump handing concessions to Vladimir Putin, some Western analysts warned Wednesday. An American delegation has been negotiating separately with Russian and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, in an attempt to fulfill Trump's promise to quickly end the fighting in Eastern Europe. On Tuesday, the White House said it had reached an agreement with both parties for a truce over the Black Sea, a strategic body of water bordering Ukraine, Russia and four other nations including Turkey, a major U.S. ally and NATO member. However, the terms of this tentative deal are enormously favorable for the Kremlin — with few upsides to Ukraine, according to many Russia-watchers in Europe and the United States. 'It is unsurprising that the Americans have agreed to most, if not all, of Russia's demands' because 'the U.S. wants almost any deal,' according to James Nixey, head of the Russia-Eurasia program at the London think-tank Chatham House. Washington 'is no longer an honest broker in these diplomatic negotiations,' he added, 'because it clearly wishes to pursue the normalization of relations with Russia at the expense of Ukraine's demands, ambitions and desires.' NBC News has contacted the White House for comment. The American delegation negotiated separately with the Ukrainian and Russian teams, with the White House releasing different statements afterward corresponding to each round of talks. Its statement relating to Ukraine said they had agreed to a ceasefire over the Black Sea while working toward halting attacks on energy infrastructure. That could stop the nightly fleets of Russian drones pummeling Ukraine's civilian power grid. But Ukrainian officials say it's more likely to benefit Russia by halting Kyiv's campaign of targeting oil refineries fueling the Kremlin's war. 'These are really gifts to Russia,' said Oleksii Tsymbalyuk, 50, a sergeant in the Ukrainian armed forces, referring to the terms of the proposed deal. He said it was 'dubious' whether Russia would in fact stop bombing Ukraine's civilian power grid. Russia falsely claims that it has already been honoring an energy-grid ceasefire since March 18. Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said Tuesday that this showed how 'Moscow is a city built on lies' and that 'the Russians are lying even when the truth is obvious.' Arguably an even bigger concession came in the White House statement relating to Russia, saying it would 'restore Russia's access to the world market' for agricultural and fertilizer exports. 'This agreement would basically drive a coach and horses through the present sanctions regime,' Phillips O'Brien, an international relations professor at Scotland's University of St. Andrews, wrote on Substack. 'Any Russian company that claimed to be working in 'agricultural and fertilizer' products would be allowed to ship goods in and out of Russia.' Russia would also benefit far more from the maritime ceasefire itself, many experts say, because it has suffered most from Ukraine drone attacks on its historically powerful Black Sea Fleet. 'As predicted. Trump rushes to give Putin everything he wants for nothing,' Russian chess champion turned democracy campaigner Garry Kasparov wrote on X. 'Nothing for the U.S., nothing for Ukraine, everything for Russia, which is still bombing Ukrainian civilians every day.' Western military experts say that Russia has less incentive to sign a ceasefire than Ukraine, after Moscow's recent gains on the battlefield and its sense that now a more amenable president is in the White House. As has been the case with previous rounds of negotiations, there were indications that the White House and the Kremlin did not share the same understanding of the details of the deal. A Kremlin readout Tuesday suggested that a firm agreement had not yet been reached. It said that the Black Sea truce will go into force after a series of sanctions are lifted. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Russia was 'satisfied with how pragmatically and constructively our dialogue is developing. This time, justice must prevail and we will continue our work with the Americans.' Trump was asked whether Putin was playing for time, in an interview with Newsmax on Tuesday. 'It could be they're dragging their feet,' Trump said, adding that he had 'done it over the years' when 'I don't want to sign a contract' but 'I want to sort of stay in the game.' Ultimately he said, 'I think Russia would like to see it end. And I think Zelenskyy would like to see it end at this point.' It's unclear when the ceasefire might come into force — if it's practically workable at all. The Kremlin readout said it would only begin once international banking restrictions were lifted and it was reconnected to the vital SWIFT global financial payments system. Trump told reporters Tuesday that his team 'will be looking at' these stipulations. But agreeing to lift these sanctions, imposed after Putin invaded Ukraine three years ago, would require the cooperation of Europe. Unlike Trump's warming ties, Europe has remained steadfastly opposed to Putin. That sets up a potential flashpoint between Washington — eager to push through this deal — and Europe — likely resistant to easing sanctions. 'It is essential that Europeans don't fall for this U.S./Russian stitch-up, which will strengthen Russia, weaken Ukraine, and undermine the security of the rest of Europe,' Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think tank, wrote on the Blue Sky social media platform. Zelenskyy said Tuesday evening that the ceasefire would begin immediately. But, he said, 'there is no faith in the Russians' to honor the agreement, and suggested he would ask Trump for additional weapons and sanctions if it was breached. 'We do not trust them. And frankly, the world doesn't trust Russia,' he said. 'They must prove that they are truly ready to end the war, ready to stop lying to the world, stop lying to President Trump and stop lying to America.'This article was originally published on
NBC News
26-03-2025
- Business
- NBC News
Trump's Black Sea truce plan is a ‘gift to Russia' that risks undermining sanctions, analysts warn
The American-brokered deal for a maritime ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine looks little more than a dream Kremlin wish-list and another example of President Donald Trump handing concessions to Vladimir Putin, some Western analysts warned Wednesday. An American delegation has been negotiating separately with Russian and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, in an attempt to fulfill Trump's promise to quickly end the fighting in Eastern Europe. On Tuesday, the White House said it had reached an agreement with both parties for a truce over the Black Sea, a strategic body of water bordering Ukraine, Russia and four other nations including Turkey, a major U.S. ally and NATO member. However, the terms of this tentative deal are enormously favorable for the Kremlin — with few upsides to Ukraine, according to many Russia-watchers in Europe and the United States. 'It is unsurprising that the Americans have agreed to most, if not all, of Russia's demands' because 'the U.S. wants almost any deal,' according to James Nixey, head of the Russia-Eurasia program at the London think-tank Chatham House. Washington 'is no longer an honest broker in these diplomatic negotiations,' he added, 'because it clearly wishes to pursue the normalization of relations with Russia at the expense of Ukraine's demands, ambitions and desires.' NBC News has contacted the White House for comment. The American delegation negotiated separately with the Ukrainian and Russian teams, with the White House releasing different statements afterward corresponding to each round of talks. Its statement relating to Ukraine said they had agreed to a ceasefire over the Black Sea while working toward halting attacks on energy infrastructure. That could stop the nightly fleets of Russian drones pummeling Ukraine's civilian power grid. But Ukrainian officials say it's more likely to benefit Russia by halting Kyiv's campaign of targeting oil refineries fueling the Kremlin's war. 'These are really gifts to Russia,' said Oleksii Tsymbalyuk, 50, a sergeant in the Ukrainian armed forces, referring to the terms of the proposed deal. He said it was 'dubious' whether Russia would in fact stop bombing Ukraine's civilian power grid. Russia falsely claims that it has already been honoring an energy-grid ceasefire since March 18. Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said Tuesday that this showed how 'Moscow is a city built on lies' and that 'the Russians are lying even when the truth is obvious.' Arguably an even bigger concession came in the White House statement relating to Russia, saying it would 'restore Russia's access to the world market' for agricultural and fertilizer exports. 'This agreement would basically drive a coach and horses through the present sanctions regime,' Phillips O'Brien, an international relations professor at Scotland's University of St. Andrews, wrote on Substack. 'Any Russian company that claimed to be working in 'agricultural and fertilizer' products would be allowed to ship goods in and out of Russia.' Russia would also benefit far more from the maritime ceasefire itself, many experts say, because it has suffered most from Ukraine drone attacks on its historically powerful Black Sea Fleet. 'As predicted. Trump rushes to give Putin everything he wants for nothing,' Russian chess champion turned democracy campaigner Garry Kasparov wrote on X. 'Nothing for the U.S., nothing for Ukraine, everything for Russia, which is still bombing Ukrainian civilians every day.' Western military experts say that Russia has less incentive to sign a ceasefire than Ukraine, after Moscow's recent gains on the battlefield and its sense that now a more amenable president is in the White House. As has been the case with previous rounds of negotiations, there were indications that the White House and the Kremlin did not share the same understanding of the details of the deal. A Kremlin readout Tuesday suggested that a firm agreement had not yet been reached. It said that the Black Sea truce will go into force after a series of sanctions are lifted. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Russia was 'satisfied with how pragmatically and constructively our dialogue is developing. This time, justice must prevail and we will continue our work with the Americans.' Trump was asked whether Putin was playing for time, in an interview with Newsmax on Tuesday. 'It could be they're dragging their feet,' Trump said, adding that he had 'done it over the years' when 'I don't want to sign a contract' but 'I want to sort of stay in the game.' Ultimately he said, 'I think Russia would like to see it end. And I think Zelenskyy would like to see it end at this point.' It's unclear when the ceasefire might come into force — if it's practically workable at all. The Kremlin readout said it would only begin once international banking restrictions were lifted and it was reconnected to the vital SWIFT global financial payments system. Trump told reporters Tuesday that his team 'will be looking at' these stipulations. But agreeing to lift these sanctions, imposed after Putin invaded Ukraine three years ago, would require the cooperation of Europe. Unlike Trump's warming ties, Europe has remained steadfastly opposed to Putin. That sets up a potential flashpoint between Washington — eager to push through this deal — and Europe — likely resistant to easing sanctions. 'It is essential that Europeans don't fall for this U.S./Russian stitch-up, which will strengthen Russia, weaken Ukraine, and undermine the security of the rest of Europe,' Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think tank, wrote on the Blue Sky social media platform. Zelenskyy said Tuesday evening that the ceasefire would begin immediately. But, he said, 'there is no faith in the Russians' to honor the agreement, and suggested he would ask Trump for additional weapons and sanctions if it was breached. 'We do not trust them. And frankly, the world doesn't trust Russia,' he said. 'They must prove that they are truly ready to end the war, ready to stop lying to the world, stop lying to President Trump and stop lying to America.'
Yahoo
19-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Success of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine hinges on deterrence
We are at a critical moment for Europe, with continental security hanging in the balance. In late February, the United Kingdom announced plans to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027. U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer also recently suggested he is prepared to send British troops and aircraft to enforce an American-brokered peace deal with Russia, should Ukraine approve it. Starmer has also called on other European leaders to place a greater emphasis on defense. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has criticized these plans, warning that it would mean the 'direct, official, and unveiled involvement of NATO members in the war against Russia.' Since returning to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump has reopened a dialogue with Russia. He has publicly stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin could dictate the terms of any emerging peace deal, given Russia's significant territorial gains since February 2022. As part of his broader effort to restart diplomatic ties with Moscow, Trump believes he can negotiate a deal to end the war. Whatever form this takes, Ukraine must feel that it is beneficial. The U.K. and other European nations must step up; Europe is their continent. They must be prepared to send troops to Ukraine to reassure Kyiv and deter future Russian aggression. However, the key issue is the potential for misunderstanding or neglecting the level of engagement required. The mere presence of peacekeeping troops on the ground in Ukraine, potentially near a contested border, would not be enough to deter the Kremlin. A more robust force is necessary. Ukraine and its allies can only guard against potential Russian aggression if the Kremlin fears the consequences of launching another attack. "The mere presence of peacekeeping troops on the ground in Ukraine, potentially near a contested border, would not be enough to deter the Kremlin." Ideally, the U.S. would serve as the ultimate 'backstop,' as Starmer has requested from Trump. But what if America refuses? This would be a significant setback, but it should not dissuade Europeans from stepping up. They have the means, which could be bolstered with financial support; what they seem to lack is the will. Britain is the country most likely to strengthen their resolve. If European forces are deployed, a mere peacekeeping force would not suffice. Would Russia truly fear lightly armed peacekeepers? Even after three years of war and the depletion of its forces, Moscow would not take such a force seriously. This could even provoke further aggression, potentially leading to a serious crisis down the road. For this reason, nuclear deterrence must be part of the answer. It is the ultimate — and arguably the only — sustainable way to ensure long-term deterrence against Russian belligerence. While the U.K.'s nuclear deterrent is smaller than Russia's, it still has the capacity to devastate Russia's major population centers. If France is willing to help lead the coalition, it would add additional nuclear capability, with both greater firepower and a sub-strategic delivery system. But nuclear deterrence alone is not enough. It must be backed by a sufficient number of forward-deployed conventional forces so that Russia has no illusion that Britain and other European countries would be unable to disengage if it invades again. Moreover, a strong focus on bolstering naval and air capabilities across Europe would enhance the continent's ability to defend itself on multiple fronts and strengthen the reassurance force in Ukraine. Alongside this, there is a need to improve the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to protect their country. Investing in technology, equipment, and strategy will all shape how the forces operate. This is critical for deterring Russia. Narrative projection is also essential. Through clear, resolute, and strong messaging, leaders across Europe can outline the consequences of any future invasion and the restarting of the war. Alongside allies, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Starmer must maintain an unyielding stance. The Kremlin must understand that Europe stands united against any resumption of war on the continent. Finally, Europe needs to outline the escalatory steps it would take if confronted by Russian action. While this should not be too tactical, the Kremlin must not be left with the impression that a new offensive would go unchallenged. Despite tough statements on sanctions, Europe has spent more on Russian energy since February 2022 than it has on Ukrainian aid. As such, British and European threats must remain credible, and nothing should be done to ease pressure on the Russian economy in the near future. How can we achieve this? With investment. The U.K. and European countries must allocate more resources to defense and defense-related infrastructure. European governments must invest in rearming and preparing their armed forces for potential future engagement. The situation is severe, but not insurmountable; bold leadership is required to ensure a strong defense against Russian hostility. The UK, in particular, should aim to fill any leadership void left by the U.S. Spending 2.5% of GDP on defense by 2027 is a welcome first step to ensuring broader European security. But beyond that? The goal should be 3% or even 3.5% by the end of the decade. Russia is not a superpower in the making. The U.K. and Europe possess far greater latent strength. It is time for them to enforce peace on their own continent and rise to the challenge. Editor's Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. 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