Latest news with #AnandShah
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
It will be tougher to generate market-beating returns over medium term, says ICICI Pru AMC's Shah
The Indian market is entering a phase of subdued returns over the medium term as it will be tougher to generate alpha or excess returns over an underlying benchmark, according to Anand Shah of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. 'I think the biggest event (ahead) will be the end of the 90-day tariff pause— that remains the key event," said Shah, chief investment officer-portfolio management services and alternative investment funds at India's second-largest asset manager. Also Read | ICICI Prudential: Street is pinning hopes on margin recovery The real challenge for equities is sentiment and behaviour, he said. While corporates and banks remain cautious, markets have priced in overly optimistic global outcomes—risking disappointment, as seen since September 2024, he said. Edited excerpts: How do you interpret the current market volatility? There is noticeable uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies. In the short term, the market will always be volatile on either side. And with every result, you will have a different reaction. The more important aspect is the medium-term. If you look at the period from 2010 to 2020, the GDP growth rate was normal—around 11 to 12% CAGR (compound annual growth rate). However, India Inc. was suffering. So, India Inc.'s profitability from 2010 to 2020 was very low—in the single digits, around 2 to 3% CAGR. Also Read | ICICI Prudential has growth cover in place If I break that down further, the NSE 500 profits-to-GDP fell from 4.7% in 2010 to almost 2.7% in 2018–19, and then to 2% in 2020, which was a Covid year. But that sharp drop in profits-to-GDP meant GDP grew, but profits did not. If I break that down even more, that fall was sustained by the ₹60,000 crore capital-intensive businesses between 2015 and 2019 across about 19 sectors. The profit growth we saw from corporate India in 2020 to 2024, and likely up to March 2025, has been quite strong. And that, too, was led by the cyclical, capital-intensive businesses and the banks. Whereas the defensive sectors—FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods), IT, pharma—were actually beneficiaries of lower commodity prices. They were doing well all the way up to 2020, and even into 2021. But from 2021 till date, they have been big underperformers. They had become very expensive by the end of 2021. Another segment of the market—more cyclical and value-oriented—started to perform better. So that sort of reversal is happening in the market in the medium term. For us, if you see the last four years—2020 to 2024—profit growth has been around 35% CAGR for India. This year also looks strong. So over five years, it should be in the 30%+ CAGR range, which is much higher than what we saw in the previous decade. What about the medium-term expectation? For the next few years, which is the medium term, I believe it will be more subdued. So while we had a 20–25% earnings growth rate in recent years—which benefited the market, plus added alpha—that was because if you were in cyclical, capital-intensive, corporate banks, PSUs, you did extremely well compared to the market. Also Read | Charlie Munger shaped investing strategies beyond numbers writes S Naren If you were in defence, you were in base capital-intensive sectors—everything was at 50%, 60%, 70% discount to book value. You had tons of value, and India was trading below the book value in many areas. So that part of the story is also, I won't say completely done, but has played out to a large extent. And to that extent, going forward, we should expect the earnings growth rate to again normalize, around the nominal growth rate of 10–11%, maybe a bit lesser. Alpha-rich opportunities will also be fewer and far between. It will be tougher to generate alpha going forward. So I think we are entering a new phase of the market—still positive, but the returns will be far more subdued than what you have seen in the last few years. What kind of returns do you expect from Nifty 50? Over the 15-year period from 2010 to 2025, GDP growth has averaged around 11.3%, with NSE 500 earnings growing at about 11.6%. While stock performance has been notably strong in the last four years, over the full period, NSE 500 returns have broadly tracked earnings, averaging close to 11%. So, I think the market's long-term growth links closely to nominal GDP and profit growth. EPS (earnings per share) growth is key, and I expect it to be around 11 to 12% at most, which will be reflected in the broader market. From here, stock-picking becomes crucial. You'll need to focus on select sectors and avoid others to generate alpha. Does that imply investors should consider increasing their exposure to fixed income and precious metals? Investors should consider increasing exposure to fixed income and precious metals for a balanced portfolio. Over the long term, diversification remains essential—balancing equities, fixed income and alternatives. Even if the market delivers 10–12% compounding returns going forward, that is still better than most other asset classes. So, maintain the right equity exposure based on your goals and risk profile. If you are significantly overweight on equities, it may be a good time to review your portfolio and consider reducing your exposure. How do you balance between large-, mid- and small-cap segments, especially given the recent sharp recovery and the broader market correction of 20–30%? With alpha-generating opportunities becoming limited, where do you see the potential now—are large-caps set to lead, or do mid- and small-caps still offer better prospects? We were significantly overweight on mid- and small-caps starting in 2022, but we reduced our exposure shortly after. Post-FY24, mid- and small-caps saw a sharp correction, which made those segments relatively less risky. It had been an unprecedented rally, with almost everything doing well. Looking at the data from late February to early April—when the market bottomed—that period presented a good opportunity to increase our exposure to small-caps. On the way down, we selectively added to our mid- and small-cap positions, remaining stock-specific in our approach. Mid-caps, as a basket, still look expensive, while small-caps and large-caps appear more reasonably valued. That said, despite high valuations in certain areas, a few select stocks stood out and were added to our portfolio. What are the factors that we need to watch out for? I think the biggest event will be the end of the 90-day tariff pause—that remains the key event. India has signed a UK FTA (free-trade agreement), and we are also looking forward to a potential FTA with the US. Relatively speaking, some developments are already priced in or at least partially expected—for example, the rate cuts anticipated from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). That's the third major factor: policy direction and potential rate cuts. Another important area is commodity prices. You cannot ignore crude prices, especially given our import dependence and energy needs. With crude and other commodities coming off (peaks), that is clearly a positive. We are closely watching developments in Russia, Israel, Iran and the US—all of which are influencing global prices. And last, but not least, government spending is helping drive recovery, and a large part of the slowdown in the domestic economy could be attributed to the cautious fiscal stance around elections. What about private capex? Private capex has started picking up, but not in a significant way. While cash flows are improving and interest rates are easing, companies remain cautious. We are still far from the scale seen between 2004 and 2010, when private investment surged—that kind of momentum is missing. Multiple uncertainties have contributed: Covid, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India's elections, China's slowdown and uncertainty around US policy. All of this is making the private sector hesitant to commit large capital. China plays a key role here. Its excess capacity and export redirection to countries like India are putting pressure on domestic margins, creating further investment hesitation. However, in the medium term, this could present an opportunity. As global supply chains diversify, countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Mexico—and potentially India—stand to benefit. In sectors like textiles, India isn't uncompetitive, but tariff differentials with countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam are a disadvantage. Trade deals like the UK FTA could help address this and spur investment. So while near-term caution remains, some of these headwinds could turn into tailwinds for private capex if global and policy dynamics shift in our favour. Given the recent concerns and the noticeable flight of capital from the US, I wanted to get your perspective on how India is positioned within the broader global investment landscape. From the foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflow point of view, do you see capital moving more aggressively toward China, or do you think the shift will be more balanced — perhaps favouring both India and China equally? Despite the US running a large deficit, the dollar has continued to remain strong. If that were to reverse—if the currency were to weaken from here—financial investors holding US assets, especially equities, could start diversifying out. We're already seeing signs of that. European equities have seen some flows, and in India, while flows are mixed, some have turned positive, with increased interest in Indian equities. China is a more complex story—there's direct uncertainty, and it's hard to say how that will play out. But yes, parts of the markets, like Taiwan, have benefited, and the Taiwanese dollar has appreciated significantly. European currencies like the euro and Germany's economy are also seeing some support. Latin American currencies, too, to some extent, are appreciating, making financial assets there more attractive. If this shift continues, it could support countries like India, helping both the government and RBI stimulate the economy more effectively. Of course, all of this is speculative for now—we're watching closely. The biggest investors remain in US equity and bond markets, and how they react, especially in terms of carry trade positions, will be key. Which sectors are you overweight and underweight on? We continue to be overweight on manufacturing and still like metals. We are also positive on allied businesses like some corporate banks, where we remain overweight. When it comes to the consumption space, we believe it is evolving beyond just products. The data shows that while premium consumption is steady, especially among HNIs (high-net-worth Indians), there is also an emerging class moving up the pyramid. Traditional consumption—like FMCG products such as shampoos and packaged goods—seems to be saturating. Today, discretionary spending is shifting more toward services: financial services, healthcare, travel and organized retail. Even the way people purchase goods is becoming more experience- and status-driven. One thing that you think investors are probably underestimating? I think the biggest risk today is in investor expectations. People have gotten used to a market that hasn't seen any major correction—not even a 10% drop—from June 2022 to September 2024. That's made investors complacent, and that's a bigger risk than any real economic concern. From a macro perspective, India is fine. Economic conditions are stable, the currency is holding up, forex reserves are healthy, and current account deficits are at manageable levels. India remains one of the fastest-growing large economies and the largest democracy, so there are no major structural concerns there. The real challenge for equity markets is sentiment and behaviour. Corporates are being cautious, not overspending, and private capex is still conservative. Banks are also lending carefully, especially for capex-heavy projects. In contrast, market participants have priced in a more optimistic global scenario than what may actually play out—and that can lead to disappointments, as we've seen since September 2024. Minor corrections are not just likely, but healthy. Valuations had become stretched, especially for retail-heavy stocks. Flows have slowed, and if you look at cross-sector investment activity, it has moderated—which is the right thing. The rally of the past four to five years was exceptional, but that can't continue at the same pace.
Time of India
29-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
ETMarkets PMS Talk: PIPE and Value strategies delivered 30–37% CAGR over 5 years - Anand Shah reveals growth drivers
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Despite the evolving market landscape and bouts of volatility, disciplined investing continues to deliver. In this edition of ETMarkets PMS Talk, we speak with Anand Shah, Chief Investment Officer – PMS & AIF at ICICI Prudential AMC, whose PIPE and Value strategies have clocked an impressive 30–37% CAGR over the last five an exclusive conversation, Shah breaks down the core investment philosophies, highlights key growth drivers, and explains how bottom-up stock selection, valuation discipline, and a long-term mindset have been pivotal in delivering alpha and building investor trust. Edited Excerpts –A) The recent volatility in Indian equity markets is largely driven by a combination of global macro uncertainties and geopolitical it is important to view this in the context of a market that has delivered strong returns over the past few years with relatively fewer degree of consolidation was expected and, arguably, healthy. From a medium- to long-term perspective, we continue to be economic fundamentals remain strong, driven by robust domestic consumption , infrastructure push, and digital believe volatile times offer opportunities for long-term investors to build positions in fundamentally strong businesses at more reasonable valuations.A) The March 2025 quarter has offered a mixed earnings picture. On the positive side, sectors such as banking, capital goods, and consumer services have shown resilience, supported by improving credit growth, operational efficiencies, and healthy balance there have been disappointments too, particularly in pockets of the export and discretionary consumption space, where demand has been more are seeing more divergence in earnings this quarter. This underscores the need for selective, bottom-up investing and a stronger focus on valuation discipline in this environment.A) We remain structurally bullish on Indian equities. Despite near-term global headwinds, India offers a compelling long-term growth story supported by favorable demographics, formalization of the economy, digital adoption, and a strong investment cycle led by both public and private current valuations in some segments, especially in mid and small caps, are elevated compared to historical a diversified portfolio and a disciplined investment approach, will be key to navigating this cycle and generating sustainable wealth.A) We see strong earnings potential in capex-linked sectors over the next few years. Infrastructure, financials, and consumer services are particularly especially large banks, are set to benefit from economic expansion and improving credit demand. Consumer services are seeing tailwinds from rising disposable incomes and evolving consumption infrastructure continues to be a structural theme backed by government push and rising corporate these are not defensive in the traditional sense, their long-term fundamentals and policy support make them relatively more predictable in an otherwise uncertain environment.A) We have had an extended bull run since the pandemic, with very limited drawdowns until recently. A phase of moderation was should recalibrate their return expectations and focus on the fundamentals i.e. proper asset allocation, portfolio diversification, and staying invested through is inherent to equities, but it also presents opportunities.A) The PMS industry is evolving rapidly, driven by the growing need for bespoke investment solutions, rising HNI wealth, and greater awareness of differentiated strategies beyond traditional mutual investors seek alpha in an increasingly mature market, demand for disciplined, transparent, and well-researched portfolio strategies is is also enabling better portfolio access and reporting, while regulation is enhancing credibility with regards to differentiated offerings. All these factors are expected to propel the PMS industry forward meaningfully.A) At ICICI Prudential AMC, the PMS vertical operates like a boutique within an institution—offering niche, research-intensive strategies under the umbrella of institutional one of the top players in the Equity PMS Discretionary segment is a result of our consistent investment philosophy and the trust of our core investment approach is built around the BMV (Business, Management, Valuation) framework. We focus on quality businesses with capable managements and invest at reasonable valuations.A robust research team supports bottom-up stock selection, while our independent risk team ensures portfolio quality and process-driven approach, combined with a long-term wealth creation mindset, has helped us deliver superior outcomes for our investors, which in turn aids the growth of the PMS Prudential PMS' PIPE Strategy has delivered nearly 37% annualised returns over the past five years, while the Value Strategy has also compounded at around 30% CAGR.A) Over the past five years, both our PIPE and Value Strategies have delivered strong performance. This outperformance is rooted in our disciplined, bottom-up investment approach and a sharp focus on intrinsic PIPE Strategy has benefited from the broader re-rating in the mid- and small-cap segments. Our focus has been on identifying emerging leaders with strong economic moats, robust balance sheets, and credible management look for companies at inflection points where capital infusion can act as a catalyst for growth. Valuation comfort remains a non-negotiable criterion in our stock selection our Value Strategy is centered on investing in fundamentally strong businesses trading at a discount to their intrinsic prioritize companies with sustainable earnings profiles, sound capital allocation, and the potential for long-term these are businesses operating in cyclical or contrarian sectors, where patient capital can benefit from mean reversion and structural both these strategies, our commitment to rigorous research has allowed us to consistently identify and invest in resilient businesses with long-term wealth creation potential.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Prospect Park officials demand councilman resign after gambling arrest linked to mob
PROSPECT PARK — Municipal leaders are calling on the Borough Council president to immediately resign after he was charged last week for his role in mob-tied gambling ring. Anand Shah, 42, in his third term on the all-Democrat council, was arrested and charged with money laundering, racketeering and a slew of gambling-related offenses for his alleged part in a complex operation involving more than three dozen co-conspirators, including members of the Lucchese crime family, authorities said. Meanwhile, he is up for reelection. Municipal government: Clifton poised to hire temporary city manager Mayor Mohamed Khairullah, once a close personal confidant, released a statement Monday asking that Shah reconsider his bid for another term and step down. The statement was made on behalf of multiple 'elected officials,' the mayor said, although it did not list them by name. 'This moment calls for leadership that prioritizes the needs of the people, above all else,' Khairullah wrote on Facebook. 'Stepping down is not an act of abandonment — it's a recognition that the continued focus must remain on serving Prospect Park without disruption. We believe this decision is in the best interests of our community and upholds the values that we're entrusted to represent.' Shah, a native of Clifton and a Subway franchisee, did not return a call placed to his cell phone. Results of a two-year investigation were announced Friday by state Attorney General Matthew Platkin, who said his office was 'bringing every resource available to crack down on violent criminals' — including those in organized crime. Authorities allege that Shah managed an online sportsbook and poker games for the criminal enterprise, whose proceeds exceeded $3 million. Upper management of the gambling ring used functioning businesses and shell corporations to conceal their illicit gains, investigators said. Shah, the chairman of the council committee on economic development and finance, is unopposed in the primary election on June 10. An elections official said Tuesday that it was too late for his name to be removed from the ballot. Philip DeVencentis is a local reporter for For unlimited access to the most important news in your community, please subscribe or activate your digital account today. Email: devencentis@ This article originally appeared on Prospect Park NJ councilman asked to resign after gambling arrest
Express Tribune
12-04-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Indian-origin councillor Anand Shah charged in US mafia-linked gambling probe
Listen to article Anand Shah, an Indian-origin municipal councillor from Prospect Park, New Jersey, has been charged with racketeering, illegal gambling, money laundering, and other offences in connection with a $3 million criminal enterprise tied to the Lucchese crime family. Anand Shah, 42, is serving his second term on the Prospect Park Borough Council, where he holds responsibility for finance, economic development, and insurance. He was among 39 individuals named in charges announced Friday by New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin. The two-year investigation, led by the New Jersey State Police and the Division of Criminal Justice, uncovered a sprawling illegal gambling operation involving underground poker clubs, offshore online sportsbooks, and money laundering networks operating throughout North Jersey. Searches were carried out on 9 April at 12 locations, including four poker clubs located in Totowa, Garfield, and Woodland Park. Some of these clubs were concealed behind operating restaurants. Authorities also searched a business in Paterson believed to house gambling machines and seven private residences linked to individuals managing the operation. Anand Shah is accused of managing illegal poker games and overseeing an online sportsbook as part of his alleged role in the criminal network. Prosecutors say he worked closely with upper-level members of the Lucchese crime family, one of the oldest and most notorious Italian-American organised crime groups in the United States. Another Indian-origin individual, Samir Nadkarni, 48, of Longwood, Florida, was also charged and described as a poker host and sportsbook sub-agent. According to investigators, the criminal enterprise ran gambling activities both in person and online, including social clubs that hosted live poker games, gambling machines, and a sophisticated online sportsbook system. The online platform, hosted on foreign servers, allowed agents and sub-agents to manage bettors, collect debts, and distribute winnings. The gambling network allegedly used shell corporations and legitimate businesses to hide and launder illicit proceeds. The total estimated value of suspected criminal earnings exceeds $3 million. Authorities said that upper management of the ring, including Shah and others, made key decisions, resolved internal disputes, and at times used intimidation tactics to recover outstanding gambling debts. 'Criminal enterprises like this pose a serious threat to the safety and well-being of our communities, driving illegal gambling, money laundering, and racketeering operations that value profit over people,' said Colonel Patrick Callahan, Superintendent of the New Jersey State Police. Attorney General Platkin added that while popular media often romanticises mafia activity, the reality is far from cinematic. 'It's about breaking the laws the rest of us follow, and ultimately it's about money, control, and the threat of violence,' he said. 'The arrest of a sitting council member only adds fuel to the fire of public distrust in elected officials.' Officials emphasised that the investigation is ongoing, and more charges or arrests may follow. Anand Shah has not yet entered a plea. His attorney has not publicly responded to the charges.
