Latest news with #AnanthaNageswaran
Gulf Today
3 days ago
- Business
- Gulf Today
India's economy outperforms peers as it surges 7.4% in Q1
India's economy surged 7.4% in January to March, much faster than forecasts and driven by construction and manufacturing, although uncertainty about US tariffs poses risks to the outlook. Gross domestic product in Asia's third-largest economy was above a forecast year-on-year growth of 6.7% in a Reuters poll, and was up from a revised 6.4% expansion in the previous quarter, official data released on Friday showed. It was the fastest increase in GDP since January-March 2024. 'India's growth is holding up in a growth-scarce environment,' said V. Anantha Nageswaran, India's chief economic adviser, after the release of the data, adding India outshone other large and contemporary economies. They include China, which grew 5.4% in January-March. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects GDP growth of 6.5% in the fiscal year beginning April 1. At that rate, India will remain the fastest growing major economy and could match Japan for size this year at $4.18 trillion, according to projections by the IMF. The gross value added (GVA), seen as a more accurate measure of underlying economic activity, grew 6.8% in the first three months of 2025, compared to a revised expansion of 6.5% in the previous quarter. GVA strips out indirect taxes and government subsidy payouts, which tend to be volatile. Manufacturing output rose 4.8% year-on-year in January-March, the final quarter of India's fiscal year, compared with a revised expansion of 3.6% in the previous quarter, while construction activity jumped 10.8%, up from 7.9% in the previous quarter. 'The GDP print for Q4 is higher than expected. This indicates that the economy has recovered from the slowdown seen in the middle of last year,' said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist, HDFC bank. However, the outlook for the current fiscal year faces challenges given a global slowdown and tariff uncertainties, she said, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes. Trump proposed reciprocal tariffs of 26% on imports from India but they are on hold until July 9 as trade talks continue. Growth in private consumer spending, which accounts for 57% of Indian GDP, eased to 6% year-on-year in January-March, from an upwardly revised 8.1% expansion in the previous quarter, as urban spending weakened whereas rural demand for durables and farm equipment like tractors improved. Retail inflation, which eased to a near six-year low of 3.16% in April, alongside a favourable monsoon forecast, is expected to keep food prices in check and pave the way for the Reserve Bank of India to cut its policy repo rate again next month. Government spending fell 1.8% in the three months through March compared to a revised expansion of 9.3% in the previous quarter, the data showed. Capital spending rose 9.4% in the quarter though private firms are expected to delay investments amid global uncertainties including trade tariffs. Growth for the fiscal year was estimated at 6.5% and the size of the Indian economy rose to 330.68 trillion rupees ($3.87 trillion) as of the end of March. Economists said that while economic growth in the current fiscal year could be affected by global uncertainties weighing on near term investment intentions, a strong monsoon, tax cuts announced by the government and continued interest rate cuts could support domestic demand. New Zealand hails trade talks: New Zealand's deputy prime minister said on Friday that talks over a free trade agreement between his country and India were ongoing, but he didn't provide a timeline for when the two nations could eventually sign a deal. Winston Peters, who is on a two-day visit to India, said that the negotiations were 'going with real meaning now,' calling them 'a breakthrough in our economic relationship.' India and New Zealand began negotiations in March for a trade pact, and had aimed to sign a deal in 60 days. The deal will significantly bolster economic ties between the two countries, but it has faced delays because of differences over tariffs on dairy products. Bilateral trade between India and New Zealand stood at $1.7 billion in the 2023-24 financial year. Talks between India and New Zealand were taking place amid global trade tensions, after US President Donald Trump's decision to impose now-paused reciprocal tariffs on imported goods from several countries, including India. Earlier this month, India and the United Kingdom clinched a trade deal. India is also engaged in trade talks with Washington. Peters, who met with India's Group of 20 emissary, Amitabh Kant, in New Delhi, said that India was New Zealand's 12th-largest partner in trade and 'we are determined that we're going to work to change that.' 'Our strengths, from food and beverage products to agriculture, forestry, horticulture, education and tourism are world class. And our innovation in areas like outer space and renewable energy will find a welcoming partner in India,' he said. Peters said that the relationship between the two countries extended to defense and security, calling it a 'priority for New Zealand in the Indo-Pacific.' Agencies
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Indian economy ‘doing quite well', may grow up to 6.8% in FY26, driven by FDI, urban spending: CEA Nageswaran
Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Anantha Nageswaran said that the Indian economy is performing well and may achieve a growth rate at the upper end of its 6.3-6.8 per cent projection, provided there are continued measures to promote foreign direct investment and an increase in capital investment by the private sector, along with boosted urban consumption. "All in all, given the global environment, our economy is doing quite well," the CEA told reporters on Friday at a virtual press conference after GDP data for 2024-25 and January-March were released. 'And if we continue with the efforts to bring in more foreign direct investment and the private sector, if it continues its increase in capital investment, which we saw in 2024-25 and urban consumption picks up on the back of let's say, better capital formation, hiring and compensation, then we can probably achieve a growth rate which is at the higher end of this range (6.3-6.8 per cent),' he added. The Indian economy grew by 6.5% in real terms for FY25, aligning with expectations. As per the second advance estimates of National Statistical Office (NSO), the Indian economy was projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimated 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25. Notably, India's GDP grew by 9.2 per cent in FY24, while the economy grew 7.2 per cent in FY23 and 8.7 per cent in FY22. The government also released the official GDP growth data for the January-March quarter on Friday. The economy grew 7.4 per cent for the quarter ended on March 31, 2025. Meanwhile, the growth rate of the Indian economy in the April-June, July-September, and October-December 2024 quarters stood at 6.7 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively. Speaking on the impact of the unusual onset of monsoon and its impact on the vegetable prices, Nageswaran said, 'To say there will be a problem as of now, I think every indication is that crop produce will be good and with adequate inventory, the benign food price trends will continue.' Monsoon rainfall is expected to be above normal in India, particularly in India's key rain-fed agricultural belt, as per IMD. Additionally, monsoon arrived early in several states this year. CEA stated that global growth for 2025 and 2026 is expected to be slow amid the global uncertainties. However, the forecast cuts will be smaller for India in the global cuts. Speaking on inflation, he further said that food inflation is likely to remain low due to a good harvest and above normal monsoon. 'Food Inflation remains benign due to good rabi harvest, higher summer sowing, healthy procurement, and above-normal monsoon. Exports remain robust, forex reserves provide 11 months of import cover. Declining crude oil prices will potentially lower import bills, create fiscal space and alleviate external economic pressures,' CEA said. The government maintains its outlook for 2025-26 growth at 6.3-6.8 per cent, driven primarily by private consumption, particularly the rural rebound, and growth in services exports. Various agencies have projected India's growth to fall within the range of 6.3-6.7 per cent for 2025-26. (With inputs from agencies)
Times of Oman
3 days ago
- Business
- Times of Oman
Indian economy doing well, may achieve growth at higher end of 6.3-6.8% projection in FY26: CEA
New Delhi: Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Anantha Nageswaran on Friday affirmed that the Indian economy is doing well and may achieve a growth rate at the higher end of its 6.3-6.8 per cent projection. "All in all, given the global environment, our economy is doing quite well," the CEA told reporters at a virtual press conference, soon after the GDP data for 2024-25 and January-March were released. "And if we continue with the efforts to bring in more foreign direct investment and the private sector, if it continues its increase in capital investment, which we saw in 2024-25 and urban consumption picks up on the back of let's say, better capital formation, hiring and compensation, then we can probably achieve a growth rate which is at the higher end of this range (6.3-6.8 per cent)." As was widely expected, the Indian economy grew by 6.5 per cent in real terms in the recently concluded financial year 2024-25. According to NSO's second advance estimates, the country's economy was projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. The Reserve Bank of India had projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25. In 2023-24, India's GDP grew by an impressive 9.2 per cent, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew 8.7 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively, in 2021-22 and 2022-23. On Friday, the official GDP growth data for the January-March quarter was also released. The economy grew 7.4 per cent during the quarter. During the April-June, July-September, and October-December 2024 quarters, the country's economy experienced real-term growth rates of 6.7 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively. Asked whether unusual monsoon rains will impact vegetable prices, Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran suggested against extrapolating a few weeks of prices and activity. "To say there will be a problem as of now, I think every indication is that crop produce will be good and with adequate inventory, the benign food price trends will continue," he explained. Amidst global uncertainty, the CEA said global growth for 2025 and 2026 is likely to slow, but India faces smaller forecast cuts in global forecasts. He supplemented high-frequency indicators for April 2025, showing strong Industrial and commercial activity in India. "Food Inflation remains benign due to good rabi harvest, higher summer sowing, healthy procurernent, and above-normal monsoon. Exports remain robust, forex reserves provide 11 months of import cover. Declining crude oil prices will potentially lower import bills, create fiscal space and alleviate external economic pressures," he said in a presentation. The government retains its outlook on 2025-26 growth at 6.3-6.8 per cent, with private consumption, especially the rural rebound, and resilient services exports as the key drivers. Multiple agencies have projected India's growth to be in the range of 6.3-6.7 per cent in 2025-26.
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
India's growth remains intact despite global gloom: CEA backs resilient demand, rising consumption
CEA Synopsis Despite a slowdown in full-year economic growth to 6.5%, India's CEA remains optimistic, citing robust Q4 growth of 7.4% driven by strong industrial output and resilient consumption. The nation's steady capital goods imports, infrastructure output, and FDI inflows support a healthy investment climate. India is well-positioned to navigate global turbulence with strong domestic demand. Despite a marked slowdown in full-year economic growth, India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran remains confident in the country's growth trajectory, underlining its resilience in the face of mounting global uncertainties. 'It's not just the growth number but how India's growth is holding up in a difficult global environment that matters,' he stated following the release of the Q4 and FY25 GDP data. ADVERTISEMENT India's GDP growth for FY25 slowed to 6.5%, a four-year low compared to the post-pandemic high of 9.2% in FY24. Yet, Q4 growth surged to 7.4%, exceeding expectations and signaling robust economic momentum driven by strong industrial output and resilient consumption, particularly in rural areas. This quarterly performance helped the economy maintain its status as the fastest-growing major economy globally. 'We are retaining our FY26 growth forecast at 6.3–6.8%,' said Nageswaran, highlighting steady capital goods imports, a rise in infrastructure output, and stable gross FDI inflows as signs of a healthy investment climate. He noted that while global growth is expected to slow, India has seen 'smaller forecast cuts' relative to peers. Private consumption, now at its highest share of GDP since FY04, rose 7.2% year-on-year, buoyed by rural demand and urban income-tax relief. The services sector and exports also continued to show resilience amid global trade tensions and escalating geopolitical risks. Agricultural output provided a surprise upside, with FY25 growth at 4.6%, more than double the previous year.'Urban unemployment is coming down, and both urban and rural demand remain steady,' the CEA added, pointing to signs of a benign growth-inflation environment that could support future rate easing. The external sector, he said, is benefiting from strong services exports and steady merchandise volatile foreign portfolio investment (FPI) trends, Nageswaran emphasised the need to boost FDI inflows further in light of shifting global supply chains. 'We must redouble efforts to attract FDI. Globally, we are in a growth-scarce environment,' he cautioned. ADVERTISEMENT While private investment remains cautious due to global uncertainties, the CEA affirmed that India's domestic demand-driven economy continues to provide a strong foundation for growth. With supportive macroeconomic conditions and sustained consumption momentum, India remains well-positioned to navigate global turbulence. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (Catch all the Business News, Breaking News, Budget 2025 Events and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.) Subscribe to The Economic Times Prime and read the ET ePaper online. NEXT STORY
India Gazette
3 days ago
- Business
- India Gazette
Indian economy doing well, may achieve growth at higher end of 6.3-6.8% projection in FY26: CEA
New Delhi [India], May 30 (ANI): Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Anantha Nageswaran on Friday affirmed that the Indian economy is doing well and may achieve a growth rate at the higher end of its 6.3-6.8 per cent projection. 'All in all, given the global environment, our economy is doing quite well,' the CEA told reporters at a virtual press conference, soon after the GDP data for 2024-25 and January-March were released. 'And if we continue with the efforts to bring in more foreign direct investment and the private sector, if it continues its increase in capital investment, which we saw in 2024-25 and urban consumption picks up on the back of let's say, better capital formation, hiring and compensation, then we can probably achieve a growth rate which is at the higher end of this range (6.3-6.8 per cent).' As was widely expected, the Indian economy grew by 6.5 per cent in real terms in the recently concluded financial year 2024-25. According to NSO's second advance estimates, the country's economy was projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. The Reserve Bank of India had projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25. In 2023-24, India's GDP grew by an impressive 9.2 per cent, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew 8.7 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively, in 2021-22 and 2022-23. Today, the official GDP growth data for the January-March quarter was also released. The economy grew 7.4 per cent during the quarter. During the April-June, July-September, and October-December 2024 quarters, the country's economy experienced real-term growth rates of 6.7 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively. Asked whether unusual monsoon rains will impact vegetable prices, Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran suggested against extrapolating a few weeks of prices and activity. 'To say there will be a problem as of now, I think every indication is that crop produce will be good and with adequate inventory, the benign food price trends will continue,' he explained. Amidst global uncertainty, the CEA said global growth for 2025 and 2026 is likely to slow, but India faces smaller forecast cuts in global forecasts. He supplemented high-frequency indicators for April 2025, showing strong Industrial and commercial activity in India. 'Food Inflation remains benign due to good rabi harvest, higher summer sowing, healthy procurernent, and above-normal monsoon. Exports remain robust, forex reserves provide 11 months of import cover. Declining crude oil prices will potentially lower import bills, create fiscal space and alleviate external economic pressures,' he said in a presentation. The government retains its outlook on 2025-26 growth at 6.3-6.8 per cent, with private consumption, especially the rural rebound, and resilient services exports as the key drivers. Multiple agencies have projected India's growth to be in the range of 6.3-6.7 per cent in 2025-26. (ANI)
