Latest news with #AndrewBoak
Business Recorder
12 hours ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars take collateral damage from Mideast conflict
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars slid on Thursday as concerns the United States was inching closer to striking Iran dampened risk sentiment, while domestic data was too mixed to offer much direction. The Aussie, often used as a proxy for risk assets, lost 0.4% to $0.6482, reversing its overnight bounce from $0.6470. Resistance lies at the recent seven-month top of $0.6552, with major support at $0.6456 and $0.6408. The kiwi dollar eased 0.7% to $0.5988, breaking support at $0.5996 and threatening a retreat to $0.5944. In Australia, data showed employment fell by 2,500 in May, when analysts had looked for a rise of 22,500. Australia, New Zealand dollars attempt to steady after sell-off, Fed decision looms The details were stronger with the jobless rate steady at 4.1%, while full-time jobs and hours worked both jumped. Markets slightly trimmed the chance of a July rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia to 64%, from 70% before the data. A quarter-point reduction in the 3.85% cash rate is still fully priced for August and rates are seen bottoming between 2.85% and 3.10% by early next year. 'In our view, the labour market is no longer 'tight' and isn't contributing to wage pressures or inflation,' said Andrew Boak, an economist at Goldman Sachs. 'We continue to expect the RBA to cut 25bp at its next meeting in July, followed by cuts in August and November to a terminal rate of 3.1%.' In New Zealand, figures showed the economy grew 0.8% in the first quarter, just pipping forecasts of 0.7%, thanks mainly to a rebound in consumer spending after a couple of tough years. That was twice the 0.4% gain projected by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and reinforced the case against a rate cut in July, which is priced at just 17%. 'With the economy regaining its footing sooner than expected after last year's sharp downturn, we continue to expect that the RBNZ will take the opportunity to pause and assess the situation at its July review,' said Michael Gordon, a senior economist at Westpac. The market implies around a 60% chance of a quarter-point cut to 3.0% in August and is fully priced by November, though that is seen as the end of the cycle.
Bloomberg
24-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Goldman Sees Australia's Opposition Running Looser Fiscal Policy
Australia's fiscal policy is likely to be more expansionary under the center-right opposition than the ruling Labor Party, based on campaign pledges ahead of a May 3 election, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Economists led by Andrew Boak estimate annual net spending in the event the Liberal-National coalition wins the vote would be 'somewhat higher' in fiscal 2026 and 2027 than under Labor, as set out in the chart below. This largely reflects Liberal leader Peter Dutton's proposed one-off tax rebate and temporary reduction in the fuel excise rate, he said in a research note.
