Latest news with #AsianDevelopmentOutlook
Fibre2Fashion
29-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US retaliatory tariffs could reduce Bangladesh's GDP growth: ADB
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently cautioned that Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be affected by the proposed 35-per cent US retaliatory tariff. The growth forecast for fiscal 2025-26 (FY26) has been revised downward, primarily due to a slowdown in the export and industrial sectors, as well as the potential effects of the US tariffs, the bank said without specifying a projected growth rate. The ADB recently cautioned that Bangladesh's GDP growth could be hit by the proposed 35-per cent US retaliatory tariff. The growth forecast for FY26 has been revised downward, primarily due to a slowdown in the export and industrial sectors, as well as the potential effects of the US tariffs, the bank said without specifying a projected growth rate. It noted a slight decline in inflation in FY25. On inflation, the July edition of ADB's Asian Development Outlook noted a slight decline in the outgoing fiscal, attributing it to stable global commodity prices and tighter fiscal and monetary policies. For these reasons, the inflation outlook for FY26 has been kept unchanged. In its previous outlook published in April, ADB had projected Bangladesh's GDP growth for FY26 at 5.1 per cent and average inflation to ease to 8 per cent in FY26. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Gulf Today
25-07-2025
- Business
- Gulf Today
Pakistan's economy grows by 2.7% in FY2024-25
Pakistan's economy recorded a growth rate of 2.7% during the fiscal year 2024-25, exceeding earlier projections, according to the latest report issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), titled Asian Development Outlook - July 2025. The report described the country's economic performance as encouraging, attributing the improvement in macroeconomic stability to a steady decline in inflation and lower prices of essential commodities. According to the Associated Press of Pakistan (APP), the report highlighted a consistent decline in inflation over the first eleven months of the fiscal year, leading ADB to maintain its inflation forecast at 5.8%. Better-than-expected performance in the industrial and services sectors, alongside ongoing reforms in agriculture, contributed significantly to the overall economic expansion. Despite global headwinds such as trade uncertainty, elevated tariffs in the United States, geopolitical tensions, and a slowdown in property markets in key economies, Pakistan sustained a positive economic trajectory. ADB credited this resilience to Pakistan's domestic policy reforms, enhanced fiscal discipline, and improved macroeconomic management. Last week, Pakistan's Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif hailed the increase of current account surplus to $2.1 billion in fiscal year 2024-2025. In a statement, he said current account surplus had reached the highest level in last 22 years which was a very positive development. WAM
Fibre2Fashion
24-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
2025 APAC growth projected at 4.7%; India to expand at 6.5%: ADB
Regional growth in Asia and the Pacific (APAC) is projected at 4.7 per cent in 2025—down by 0.2 percentage point (pp) from April—and 4.6 per cent in 2026—down by 0.1 pp, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2025. Inflation across developing APAC is projected to ease, supported by falling oil prices and strong agricultural output. Inflation there is forecast at 2 per cent in 2025 and 2.1 per cent in 2026, down from April's projections of 2.3 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively. China is expected to grow at 4.7 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026, with consumer and industrial stimulus partially offsetting the drag from real estate and export weakness. APAC growth is projected at 4.7 per cent in 2025â€'down by 0.2 pp from Aprilâ€'and 4.6 per cent in 2026â€'down by 0.1 pp, the ADB Asian Development Outlook said. China is expected to grow at 4.7 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026. India is forecast to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2025 and 6.7 per cent in 2026. ADB revised down its forecast for Vietnam's growth to 6.3 per cent in 2025 and 6 per cent in 2026. India is forecast to expand at 6.5 per cent in 2025 and 6.7 per cent in 2026, slightly lower than previous estimates due to trade uncertainty and US tariffs impacting exports and investment. Southeast Asia is anticipated to be hit the hardest, with growth revised down to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026, a 0.5 pp reduction from April's projections. In contrast, Central Asia and the Caucasus are projected to grow faster than previously expected, with growth revised up to 5.5 per cent in 2025 and 5.1 per cent in 2026, driven largely by higher oil production. ADB revised down its forecast for Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 6.3 per cent in 2025 and 6 per cent in 2026, down by 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from its projection made three months back. The downgrade is largely attributed to weaker export prospects amid rising US tariffs and global trade uncertainties, coupled with softening domestic demand, the bank said in the document. Despite short-term challenges, Vietnam's economy will remain resilient this year and the next, ADB experts believe. Strong export and import growth, along with a surge in foreign investment disbursement, drove economic performance in the country in the first half (H1) this year, according to the bank. Foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments rose by 32.6 per cent, while FDI disbursement increased by 8.1 per cent year on year (YoY) during H1 2025 in Vietnam, indicating growing international confidence in the country's economic outlook, ADB noted. Public investment disbursement has also hit its highest level in the country since 2018, meeting 31.7 per cent of the yearly plan in H1 2025—up by 19.8 per cent YoY. However, a recently announced trade agreement with the US in early July imposes significantly higher tariffs on Vietnamese exports, which could reduce demand in H2 2025 and in 2026, ADB noted. The country's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing has witnessed a slowdown since late 2024, suggesting mounting pressure on the industrial sector. Inflation in Vietnam is expected to ease to 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 3.8 per cent in 2026, ADB said. Rising risks to the APAC regional outlook include escalating geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, higher energy prices, and a deeper-than-expected downturn in China's property market. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Business Recorder
24-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
ADB keeps growth outlook unchanged
ISLAMABAD: The Asian Development Bank has downgraded the growth outlook for South Asia for FY 2026 slightly but kept the outlook for Pakistan unchanged. According to Asian Development Outlook July 2025, the ADB lowered its growth forecasts for economies in developing Asia and the Pacific this year and next year. The downgrades are driven by expectations of reduced exports amid higher United States (US) tariffs and global trade uncertainty, as well as weaker domestic demand. The growth outlook for South Asia for 2025 is 5.9 percent. Pakistan secures $1 billion financing facility with ADB-backed guarantee In Pakistan, the accelerated decline in food and non-food prices for the first 11 months of FY2025 revised the inflation forecast for FY2025 downward, while the outlook for FY2026 remains unchanged with 5.8 percent and 3 percent GDP growth. The slight downward revisions for GDP growth in India and Sri Lanka in 2025 are primarily due to the effects of US tariff policies, while Bhutan's downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected industry performance in the first quarter of 2025. The growth forecast for the subregion in 2026 is 6.2 percent. South Asia's inflation is forecast at 4.4 percent in 2025, from 4.9 percent in the April 2025 ADO, and retained at 4.5 percent in 2026. India's inflation forecast for FY2025 has been revised downward to 3.8 percent, reflecting faster-than-expected decline in food prices due to better agricultural production, while the FY2026 forecast remains unchanged. Likewise, Bangladesh's actual inflation is marginally lower than forecast for FY2025 amid easing global commodity prices and tighter monetary and fiscal policies, while the outlook keeps the FY2026 forecast the same in anticipation of continued tight policies and moderating global oil prices. The ADB forecasts the region's economies will grow by 4.7percent this year, a 0.2 percentage point decline from the projection issued in April. The forecast for next year has been lowered to 4.6percent from 4.7percent, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2025 released on Wednesday. Prospects for developing Asia and the Pacific could be dented further by an escalation of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions. Other risks include conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt global supply chains and raise energy prices, and a worse-than-expected deterioration in the property market of the People's Republic of China (PRC). 'Asia and the Pacific has weathered an increasingly challenging external environment this year. But the economic outlook has weakened amid intensifying risks and global uncertainty,' said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. 'Economies in the region should continue strengthening their fundamentals and promoting open trade and regional integration to support investment, employment, and growth.' Growth projections for the PRC, the region's largest economy, are maintained at 4.7percent this year and 4.3 percent next year. Policy stimulus for consumption and industrial activity is expected to offset continuing property market weakness and softening exports. India, the region's second-largest economy, is forecast to grow by 6.5percent this year and 6.7 percent next year—down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from April projections—as trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs affect exports and investment. Economies in Southeast Asia will likely be hardest hit by worsened trade conditions and uncertainty. The ADB now predicts the subregion's economies will grow 4.2 percent this year and 4.3 percent next year, down roughly half a percentage point from April forecasts for each year. Bucking the downward trend are economies in Caucasus and Central Asia. The subregion's growth projections have been raised by 0.1 percentage points for both this year and next to 5.5percent and 5.1percent, respectively, largely reflecting an anticipated boost in oil production. Inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific is projected to continue slowing, amid easing oil prices and strong farm output reducing food price pressures. The ADB forecasts regional inflation of 2.0 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year, compared with its April projections of 2.3 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Time of India
23-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Impact of trade war & tariffs: ADB cuts India's FY26 outlook; GDP growth forecast cut to 6.5%
Representative image (ANI) The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for India's GDP growth for FY26 from 6.7 percent to 6.5 percent, citing uncertainty in global trade and the effect of higher US tariffs on Indian exports and investment flows 'This revision is primarily due to the impact of US baseline tariffs and associated policy uncertainty. In addition to the effects of lower global growth and the direct impact of additional US tariffs on Indian exports, heightened policy uncertainty may affect investment flows,' the ADB said in its July edition of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO), as quoted by news agency PTI. India is still one of the major economies with the fastest rates of growth in the world, even with the downward revision. Economic activity is still robust, according to the ADO, and domestic consumption is predicted to increase significantly due to a recovery in rural demand. In the next fiscal year, the agriculture and services sectors are probably going to be the main engines of growth. The agricultural sector, in particular, is expected to benefit from a forecast of above-normal monsoon rains, according to the news agency. The government's economic survey had earlier projected FY26 growth in the range of 6.3 percent to 6.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), too, recently lowered its own growth forecast for the current financial year from 6.7 percent to 6.5 percent. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Why seniors are rushing to get this Internet box – here's why! Techno Mag Learn More Undo India's economy grew by 6.5 percent in FY25, the slowest expansion in four years, down sharply from 9.2 percent in FY24. The ADB said the centre's fiscal position remains robust, bolstered by higher-than-expected dividend payouts from the RBI. Additionally, it looks like the government will reach its goal of reducing the fiscal deficit. Assuming a more stable policy environment and favorable financial conditions, the report forecasts that growth could recover to 6.7 percent in FY27. Anticipated increases in investment, supported by recent cuts to key policy rates, serve as the foundation for this forecast, reported PTI. Since there are indications that inflation is going to continue to decline, the RBI has decided to adopt a neutral monetary stance, which allows it to change policy rates as needed. Since February of this year, the benchmark repo rate has been lowered by 100 basis points by the monetary policy committee (MPC). In its most recent move last month, the RBI delivered a surprise 50 basis point rate cut, its third consecutive reduction, and slashed the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by a full percentage point to 3 percent. The CRR move alone injected around ₹2.5 lakh crore into the banking system, further supporting liquidity as reported by PTI. Additionally, the ADB said the outlook for FY26 and FY27 is supported by baseline expectations of lower crude oil prices, which should help sustain economic momentum. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
