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What would a September Fed rate cut mean for mortgage rates?
What would a September Fed rate cut mean for mortgage rates?

Yahoo

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

What would a September Fed rate cut mean for mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are inching lower as jobs data cools and traders price in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Mphasis Digital Risk founder Jeff Taylor explains how that could impact homebuyers and why new builds may offer better value than existing homes. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend. Interest rate traders are price signaling at 25 basis point rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate sits above 6.7% and has remained in that same narrow range for the last month. What could a possible September cut do for mortgage rates? Well, joining me now is Jeff Taylor, founder of Emphasis Digital Risk. Jeff, it is good to see you. So let's get right to that question. Uh Jeff, you know, if the Fed did cut in September, that would mean what for mortgage rates, Jeff? Josh, thank you for having me tonight. Well, let's just take a look at what's happened over the last few days. August 1st, mortgage rates 30 year were about 6.875. Today they're around 6.5. So we already saw 37% percent basis points or 0.375, that is. And why do we see that? We saw that because the job the jobs report came in under an average of 35,000 jobs over the last three months, much lower than what people had expected. So the mortgage market tends to to to basically the mortgage market moves with the bond market as we all know. So we already saw 0.375 without a Fed rate cut. So if we did get a a a rate cut about 25%, then we'd be probably in around 6 and a quarter per 6 and a quarter percent. And I think that's when we could actually start to see uh maybe some refinance value coming in for people who have refinanced over 7%. You know, Jeff, earlier this morning, uh Mohammed El-Erian, so president of course of Queens College, Cambridge, said a bigger rate cut uh could be in play in September. Take a listen. Is it a lock for September? Yes. I think a 25 basis points cut is is a lock. A 50 point basis point cut is a possibility, not yet a probability, it's a possibility. So Jeff, Mohammed there is saying it's a possibility we get a cut by 50 in September. Let's say that happened, Jeff. What would be the effect? What would be the impact on the mortgage market? So, you know, let's go back and look at 2024. So before there was any rate cuts, right? You went from a 7.5 mortgage rate down to 6.17. And then we had four or three rate rate cuts covering 1% and the mortgage market went back up to 7 point and 4%. My point there is the mortgage market sort of moves, it does have move with Fed cut, but it also sort of moves where it thinks inflation and other key economic data factors, such as the jobs are also moving. So again, a Fed cut would help bring it down, but as I I just said, you know, sometimes it can be counter intuitive to the after Fed cuts where actually the mortgage rate market goes again. So we'll see what happens, but right now I wouldn't be surprised to see the mortgage market and mortgage rate somewhere in the about 6 and a quarter six to 6 and a quarter in the course of the next couple of months. Rates are important, Jeff. So is inventory. What what do we see with supply right now? So, you know, supply is actually what I was looking at some data the other day, I haven't seen this in a long time. Right now, the price of a newly built home is 8% lower, $412,000 the medium than existing home at $435,000. Now, a lot of that's because of builder incentives, 62% getting incentives. And the reason they're doing that is because the overall supply market is pretty healthy. Prices are starting to come down a little bit, but they're still pretty, you know, there's pretty pretty good supply out there. Um again, if I'm looking the market right now, I'd really be focusing on the new new homes right now versus the existing existing market for the reason that I just said as far as price affordability and being a little bit cheaper.

What would a September Fed rate cut mean for mortgage rates?
What would a September Fed rate cut mean for mortgage rates?

Yahoo

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

What would a September Fed rate cut mean for mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are inching lower as jobs data cools and traders price in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Mphasis Digital Risk founder Jeff Taylor explains how that could impact homebuyers and why new builds may offer better value than existing homes. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Unity CEO breaks down Q2 beat & video game industry
Unity CEO breaks down Q2 beat & video game industry

Yahoo

time06-08-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Unity CEO breaks down Q2 beat & video game industry

Unity (U) stock falls despite beating second quarter expectations, as guidance came in slightly below forecasts. Unity CEO and president Matt Bromberg joins Asking for a Trend to break down the results but share how the company's new artificial intelligence (AI) ad platform is fueling ad growth. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend. Matt, great to see you on the show. Let let's start with that earnings report, Matt, because you all did report. I did see the stock finish lower today by about uh 6%. I saw analysts at City, uh Matt cited saying the results beat expectations, but they did say the outlook slightly below consensus on a midpoint basis. But but I'm interested to get your thoughts on the report, Matt. Walk us through the results. What what are you seeing in the business? Yeah, I will thank you for having me. It won't surprise you to hear from me that where the stock moves on any given day is not not much of a concern. I think when with the benefit of time, what folks will do when they look back at the second quarter of 2025, is they'll understand that this was really the inflection point for the unit's turnaround. When investments in fundamental investments in in product development and velocity and relationships with our customers really started to show uh financial performance on our top line. Uh and that's mostly what this quarter was about. We we handily beat both on the top and bottom in Q2 and also guided Q3 really aggressively for renewed growth in our advertising business. So in general, we're feeling really terrific. Matt, in terms of those creation tools that you're offering folks, how much do those tools uh cost, Matt? And how much pricing leverage do you have? Could you could you charge more? Yeah, the the vast majority of the of the folks who use Unity pay nothing because we uh invest very much in the support of our broader community so that people can learn to use Unity, so that they can create freely, uh and they can invest their time and creative energies with us. At the high end, large corporate customers who are operating significant businesses with Unity, um do pay uh substantial sums for unity. And um I so we think we've we've priced the of offering fairly. Um, we did have a price increase um earlier this year and uh it seems to be being tolerated and embraced uh really well by customers. So we think we're in a pretty good place. Um, that's and that's sort of how we feel about it. In terms of the you have this new AI powered ad platform, Matt, called Vector. Can you walk us through that product, what it means for your business and the customers and and how you think it it compares and contrasts with what what what uh the competition offers? Yeah, a year ago when we when we began here at Unity, we were fundamentally uncompetitive in the advertising space. And we immediately realized that we were going to have to invest significantly to build a new neural network uh driven engine to power our ad business forward. And so we set to work immediately and over the last 10 weeks since the launch of Unity vector, what we've seen is that those investments are really starting to pay off. Um the Unity ad network grew 15% in the second quarter, expected to grow um mid-single digits in next quarter. And really from a standing start, we've been delivering uh significantly more value and more return to customers. And we think that there's multiple years of runway available for us in this space. Performance advertisers in our world who are buying installs for their uh for their games will spend effectively infinitely up to their return targets. So as we develop um uh better products, we deliver more return to those customers, they will spend more with us and we're feeling great about that over the long term. Matt, I talked to an analyst today who knows your company in the industry and he brought up a question, want to ping it off you. He said, you know, what what if and he was talking about the Apple Epic fight, right? which has dragged on for a long time, as you know, what if he said those developers that ended up they didn't have to pay Apple and it freed up a whole bunch of money. What could that mean for unity? Could that mean, for example, an uptick and ad spend? How do you answer that question? Listen, I think if you're in a business where overnight that business becomes, you know, more compete a more profitable, call it double digit and a double digit amount. Well, you're typically going to see is those game developers will invest a significant portion of that savings in growth. Uh and when they look to do that, they absolutely will come to us. Um and and and that's one of the most exciting things about um about the environment we find ourselves and the environment is so dynamic. Um and there's so much interest in uh in growth and investment and we feel really well positioned to take advantage of it. Broader question, Matt, you know, we got some data points recently which suggests maybe the economy is is showing some weakness here. If the economy were to wobble, Matt, if, you know, the consumer comes under some more pressure, what would that mean potentially for unity? I think by and large over time, the games uh video game business has proven to be pretty recession resistant. Um especially when you're talking about free to play mobile games and 70% of the top mobile games in the world are built on unity. That's a very, very nice price to value uh equation for consumers. free. So, you know, we feel like we're in a really good spot and you know, I'm hopeful that that won't happen to the economy, but uh, you know, we've been through cycles before and and we tend to weather them just fine. Uh you know, you've worked in the video game industry for for a while. I'm curious to get your just your general thoughts on the industry. You know, you got the new the new switch just came out, Grand Theft Auto, that that's on the way, that's on deck. How generally excited, how enthusiastic are you about the industry right now? What do you see ahead? I'm enormously optimistic about the future of our industry. I I know there's from time to time folks will say that growth is slowing and there have been some some games that haven't haven't released well, there've been some layoffs, but I see this as a period of creative destruction um and dynamism. To your point, I've been in this business for a while. I've seen some hardware cycles and right now we're at the end of a hardware cycle and that always tends to be a point of a little bit slower growth. But as you've seen from the release of the switch 2, which is now the fastest growing uh game console in history, there's a lot of dynamism in this market. And when you make hit games, consumers will buy them. We'll have Grand Theft Auto, the Grand Theft Auto coming out. Um we're going to have innovation in the space, um and there will be some changes, but this space will grow and it'll grow durably for many years to come. Related Videos Opendoor's Q2 beat isn't enough: Here's what's holding them back Applovin, DraftKings, E.l.f. Beauty: After-hours trending stocks Fed's Mary Daly says it's time to cut rates Lyft stock tumbles on Q2 earnings miss Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Tariff resiliency, wall of worry, crypto highs: Market takeaways
Tariff resiliency, wall of worry, crypto highs: Market takeaways

Yahoo

time14-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Tariff resiliency, wall of worry, crypto highs: Market takeaways

Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre joins Asking for a Trend with Josh Lipton to go over the main takeaways from the trading day: market resiliency to tariff headlines, the wall of worry investors face and how it's shaping sentiment, and crypto's current rally and overall strong performance this year. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. Sign in to access your portfolio

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