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Calgary Herald
2 days ago
- Politics
- Calgary Herald
As separatist talk simmers in Alberta and Quebec, Canadians say breaking up will be hard to do: poll
Article content Against a backdrop of fresh talk of Alberta separation and the constant spectre of Quebec's sovereignty movement, a new national opinion poll found that most Canadians say breaking up will be hard to do. Article content A large majority of respondents nationally said any secession by one province would require negotiation with all provinces and must be supported by a clear majority of voters in the province, and most said separation cannot be a unilateral decision, and it should require approval by the federal House of Commons. Article content Article content Article content A national opinion survey, conducted by Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies and provided to Postmedia, was designed to probe Canadians attitudes about the process for separation, rather than their views on separation itself, and what should follow a successful provincial leave referendum. Article content Article content 'The bottom line is that Canadians across the country envision the process as much more complex than a simple majority vote on a referendum question,' said Jack Jedwab, president of the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies. Article content Public discussion about Alberta separating from Canada drew more mainstream attention in May, after the federal election returned the Liberal Party to government and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith tabled provincial legislation to make it easier for Albertans to trigger a referendum on the province leaving the rest of Canada. Smith said she would hold such a referendum if a citizen petition called for it. Article content Article content Separatists in Quebec hope the renewed discourse on separation will boost their long-standing desire for independent statehood, which twice went to provincial referendum which failed to support sovereignty, in 1980 and 1995. The Parti Québécois plans another provincial sovereignty referendum in the years ahead. Article content That creates plenty of secessionist talk and debate, but it has been 30 years since Canada has seen an actual separation referendum. Article content 'Many Canadians of voting age and, of course, most immigrants didn't experience the last referendum 30 years ago, but there is a growing consensus that the rest of the country would want a say in the process and secession would not be simple,' said Jedwab. Article content The poll asked 1,537 people across Canada a series of questions on the mechanism of a possible separation. Article content Article content A majority of Canadians said any referendum question regarding provincial separation from Canada must be unambiguous, with 59 per cent of respondents agreeing with that, with only 11 per cent disagreeing, and 30 per cent saying they don't know or declined to answer.
Vancouver Sun
2 days ago
- Politics
- Vancouver Sun
As separatist talk simmers in Alberta and Quebec, Canadians say breaking up will be hard to do: poll
Against a backdrop of fresh talk of Alberta separation and the constant spectre of Quebec's sovereignty movement, a new national opinion poll found that most Canadians say breaking up will be hard to do. A large majority of respondents nationally said any secession by one province would require negotiation with all provinces and must be supported by a clear majority of voters in the province, and most said separation cannot be a unilateral decision, and it should require approval by the federal House of Commons. A national opinion survey , conducted by Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies and provided to Postmedia, was designed to probe Canadians attitudes about the process for separation, rather than their views on separation itself, and what should follow a successful provincial leave referendum. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. 'The bottom line is that Canadians across the country envision the process as much more complex than a simple majority vote on a referendum question,' said Jack Jedwab, president of the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies. Public discussion about Alberta separating from Canada drew more mainstream attention in May, after the federal election returned the Liberal Party to government and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith tabled provincial legislation to make it easier for Albertans to trigger a referendum on the province leaving the rest of Canada. Smith said she would hold such a referendum if a citizen petition called for it. Separatists in Quebec hope the renewed discourse on separation will boost their long-standing desire for independent statehood, which twice went to provincial referendum which failed to support sovereignty, in 1980 and 1995. The Parti Québécois plans another provincial sovereignty referendum in the years ahead. That creates plenty of secessionist talk and debate, but it has been 30 years since Canada has seen an actual separation referendum. 'Many Canadians of voting age and, of course, most immigrants didn't experience the last referendum 30 years ago, but there is a growing consensus that the rest of the country would want a say in the process and secession would not be simple,' said Jedwab. The poll asked 1,537 people across Canada a series of questions on the mechanism of a possible separation. A majority of Canadians said any referendum question regarding provincial separation from Canada must be unambiguous, with 59 per cent of respondents agreeing with that, with only 11 per cent disagreeing, and 30 per cent saying they don't know or declined to answer. Respondents in Quebec and Alberta showed the strongest support for an unambiguous question, at 71 and 62 per cent, respectively. A clear majority of Canadians, 66 per cent, said there must be a clear majority of voters supporting separation in a separatist referendum for it to be considered — with Quebecers the softest on the issue. The poll showed that 76 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 75 per cent in B.C., 72 per cent in Alberta, 66 per cent in Ontario, and 62 per cent in Manitoba-Saskatchewan agreed that there must be a clear majority of voter support for separation. In Quebec it was 55 per cent, still a majority, with 26 per cent saying it was not necessary, by far the highest in the country. A majority of respondents in every region agreed that a province separating from Canada would require negotiations with all provinces — even respondents in Quebec, although they were the softest on the issue. Nationally, 62 per cent of respondents agreed that negotiation was necessary for provincial separation, with 19 per cent saying it wasn't needed and another 19 per cent saying they didn't know or declined to answer. The age of respondents impacted how strongly that feeling was, with the youngest cohort of 18 to 34 year olds showing a low of 56 per cent agreement, the middle cohort of 35 to 54 year olds rising to 61 per cent agreement, and the oldest cohort, those 55 years old and above, being the strongest in agreement at 67 per cent. The regional breakdown on the need for negotiations was lowest in the two provinces most active with separatist ambition — Alberta at 52 per cent and Quebec at 57. The highest support for the need for negotiation was in Atlantic Canada (67 per cent), followed by Ontario (66), B.C. (65), and Manitoba-Saskatchewan (61). Most Canadians said that even after a favourable provincial vote for separation, a province cannot unilaterally leave Canada, the poll found, although there is a lot of uncertainty about the issue. Canadians will want agreement on the question Nationally, 42 per cent said a province cannot make its own decision to separate from Canada while 22 per cent said such a decision by a province was enough. A large number, 36 per cent, said they didn't know or didn't answer the question. Only respondents in B.C. delivered a majority response dismissing unilateral departure — barely — at 51 per cent. Other regions followed: Ontario (46 per cent), Atlantic Canada (44), Alberta (43), Manitoba-Saskatchewan (42), and Quebec (31). Quebec was the only region with more people embracing unilateral separation than dismissing the idea: 32 per cent said it was OK, while 37 per cent said they weren't sure or didn't answer. While a majority of those in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada, and Ontario said a referendum question on separation should require the approval of the federal House of Commons, most Quebecers and Albertans disagreed. In Alberta, 43 per cent said a referendum question should not require a federal parliamentary vote, while 35 per cent agreed it should. That's even stronger than in Quebec, where 36 per cent said it should not require a federal approval, with 34 per cent saying it should. Those in B.C. showed the strongest support for federal input, at 60 per cent, followed by Atlantic Canada at 58 per cent, and Ontario at 55 per cent. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, pooled together in the poll, 43 per cent agreed there should be parliamentary approval, with 21 per cent saying it shouldn't be required and 36 per cent saying they didn't know or declined to answer. 'Canadians will want agreement on the question and will seemingly not be inclined to allow an outcome that involves a breakup to be established as set out solely by a province that wishes to separate,' said Jedwab. 'Without previous discussion around the process and the desired outcome, the risk is that results will not secure required recognition.' The public opinion survey was conducted online with 1,537 respondents in Canada from May 16 to 18. As a non-probability sample in a panel survey, traditional margins of error do not apply. • Email: ahumphreys@ | Twitter: AD_Humphreys Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
Vancouver Sun
4 days ago
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
Surging Canadian pride in face of Trump's insults sags after Canada's federal election, poll finds
A surge in Canadian pride when Canada's sovereignty and dignity were under assault from U.S. President Donald Trump has slumped back to normal levels after the federal election, according to a public opinion poll. Last year — in May and again in November — 80 per cent of Canadians said they were proud to be Canadian in opinion polls, but patriotism surged this spring, climbing to 86 per cent in early March, during the lead-up to April's federal election call. In the month following the election of Mark Carney and the Liberal Party to a minority government, however, Canadian patriotic fervour has slipped back to its pre-election level, according to a new poll. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. The national opinion survey, conducted by Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies and provided to Postmedia, also reveals significant regional differences in expressing Canadian patriotism. 'The boost in pride in being Canadian arising from the U.S. threat of annexation appears to have worn off, and the level of pride has returned to its pre-campaign levels,' said Jack Jedwab, president of the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies. 'The most important swings in pride were in Quebec and Alberta, where election spikes in pride have returned to lower levels post-election, and that is especially the case in Alberta,' he said. Atlantic Canada displayed the most patriotism in the past, with 93 per cent of respondents saying they were proud to be Canadian a year ago. That was the highest level in the country at any time in the last year of polling. With the approach of a federal election — called after the resignation of unpopular prime minister Justin Trudeau — patriotic support in the Atlantic provinces dipped to 91 per cent. In the new poll, it deflated even further, down to 83 per cent. British Columbia expressed the least Canadian patriotism a year ago, with 71 per cent saying they were proud to be Canadian, but that level shot up before the election, reaching 90 per cent in early March. For poll respondents in B.C., patriotism had staying power after the election. The latest poll places the province at the national top, with 84 per cent expressing pride. Ontario was the only other region that retained a higher level of patriotism now than last year. In May 2024, 80 per cent in Ontario said they were proud to be Canadian. That rose to a high of 87 per cent this March and has settled in the recent poll at 83 per cent. Alberta also showed a rise in patriotic pride before the election; however, it's a feeling that has significantly soured since the vote. A year ago, 80 per cent in Alberta expressed pride with being Canadian, in line with the Canadian average. That dipped notably to 74 per cent this March, before the election call, but climbed to 96 per cent, slightly above the national average, in early April, after the election call. In the latest poll, taken after the federal election results that re-elected the Liberal Party, expressions of Canadian pride in Alberta sagged dramatically — down to 70 per cent, the lowest in the country, even lower than in Quebec, and 10 points below where it was a year ago. 'The significant fluctuation in Alberta in pride in being Canadian suggests that for some Albertans such pride was conditional on the outcome of the election,' Jedwab said. The surge in pride for Canada in Alberta coincided with polling data showing sky high national support for the Conservative Party, which did not hold by the time of the vote. In Quebec, where pride in Canada has often been more controversial because of the Quebec separatist movement, there weren't dramatic swings, although the new data reflects the province followed a national trend. Expressions of pride in being Canadian by those in Quebec was at 83 per cent a year ago. Notably, that was the second highest in the country, behind only Atlantic Canada. That rose to 86 per cent in early March but has since dropped to 76 per cent in the new poll, the second lowest in the country, behind only Alberta. Manitoba and Saskatchewan, polled together by the pollsters, has seen large fluctuations in its expressions of Canadian pride. A year ago, it stood at 82 per cent, a bit above the national average. After a dip to 77 per cent in November, it jumped to 91 per cent in early April, before falling to 78 per cent in the new polling. Perhaps impacting expressions of national pride, many Canadians in the poll said they identify more strongly with their province or region than with Canada as a country. Nationally, 40 per cent of respondents said their strongest tie is regional or provincial, with 46 per cent saying it was not, and 14 per cent saying they didn't know or declined to answer. Respondents in Quebec, Nova Scotia, and Alberta led the way in the strength of regional bonds: 54 per cent of Quebecers said their provincial tie was stronger than their national; 50 per cent of Nova Scotians and 45 per cent of Albertans said the same thing. In descending order came the remaining provinces: Saskatchewan (38 per cent), New Brunswick (37), Newfoundland (37), Manitoba (34), and Ontario (30). When it comes to how much provinces feel they are respected by the rest of Canada, respondents in Ontario, B.C., and Quebec felt the most like they get the respect they deserve, with 55 per cent agreeing in Ontario, 40 per cent in B.C., and 33 per cent in Quebec. The provinces with the fewest respondents satisfied with the amount of respect from the rest of the country were: Newfoundland (31), Manitoba (31), Alberta (29), Nova Scotia (28), New Brunswick (26), and Saskatchewan (21). There was no data provided for Prince Edward Island or the three northern territories. Almost 75 per cent of those respondents who said they didn't feel respected by the rest of Canada nonetheless said they were proud to be Canadian. Similarly, slightly more than 75 per cent of respondents who identified more strongly with their province or region than with the country also maintained they were proud to be Canadian. The data on people's regional ties and feelings of respect can be important in the context of national unity, regional alienation and separation discussions, said Jedwab. 'While not a new issue, the feeling of regions being disrespected in Canada needs attention and, whereas Quebec was often viewed as most inclined to express such sentiment, Albertans have surpassed Quebec as being more aggrieved. 'And while most Quebecers identify more strongly with their region than they do Canada, Albertans are exhibiting a similar pattern with a significant percentage identifying more with their province. There are also noticeable feelings of disrespect in parts of the Atlantic and the Prairies, but it hasn't translated into diminished identification with Canada,' he said. The public opinion survey was conducted with 1,537 respondents in Canada from May 16 to 18. As a non-probability sample in a panel survey, traditional margins of error do not apply. • Email: ahumphreys@ | Twitter: AD_Humphreys Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
Calgary Herald
4 days ago
- Business
- Calgary Herald
Surging Canadian pride in face of Trump's insults sags after Canada's federal election, poll finds
A surge in Canadian pride when Canada's sovereignty and dignity were under assault from U.S. President Donald Trump has slumped back to normal levels after the federal election, according to a public opinion poll. Article content Last year — in May and again in November — 80 per cent of Canadians said they were proud to be Canadian in opinion polls, but patriotism surged this spring, climbing to 86 per cent in early March, during the lead-up to April's federal election call. Article content Article content In the month following the election of Mark Carney and the Liberal Party to a minority government, however, Canadian patriotic fervour has slipped back to its pre-election level, according to a new poll. Article content Article content The national opinion survey, conducted by Leger Marketing for the Association for Canadian Studies and provided to Postmedia, also reveals significant regional differences in expressing Canadian patriotism. Article content 'The boost in pride in being Canadian arising from the U.S. threat of annexation appears to have worn off, and the level of pride has returned to its pre-campaign levels,' said Jack Jedwab, president of the Montreal-based Association for Canadian Studies. Article content 'The most important swings in pride were in Quebec and Alberta, where election spikes in pride have returned to lower levels post-election, and that is especially the case in Alberta,' he said. Article content Article content Atlantic Canada displayed the most patriotism in the past, with 93 per cent of respondents saying they were proud to be Canadian a year ago. That was the highest level in the country at any time in the last year of polling. Article content Article content With the approach of a federal election — called after the resignation of unpopular prime minister Justin Trudeau — patriotic support in the Atlantic provinces dipped to 91 per cent. In the new poll, it deflated even further, down to 83 per cent. Article content British Columbia expressed the least Canadian patriotism a year ago, with 71 per cent saying they were proud to be Canadian, but that level shot up before the election, reaching 90 per cent in early March. For poll respondents in B.C., patriotism had staying power after the election. Article content The latest poll places the province at the national top, with 84 per cent expressing pride. Article content Ontario was the only other region that retained a higher level of patriotism now than last year. In May 2024, 80 per cent in Ontario said they were proud to be Canadian. That rose to a high of 87 per cent this March and has settled in the recent poll at 83 per cent.
Calgary Herald
24-05-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
What the data show about the state of immigration in Canada since cuts were announced
Article content A new analysis of immigration data released by the federal government reveals that while the number of new permanent residents dropped after the federal government announced that it would cut immigration levels, the number of temporary foreign workers actually increased, while other temporary permits declined. Article content Last October, the federal government under then prime minister Justin Trudeau announced it would reduce its permanent immigration targets from 500,000 down to 395,000 in 2025. The government also set a cap for the first time on the intake of temporary residents in both student and worker streams, at 673,650 temporary resident visas for 2025. Article content Article content 'Meeting these targets is not simple given the need to account for regional priorities, pre-existing and other considerations,' says a detailed analysis of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada data done by the Metropolis Institute and the Association for Canadian Studies. Article content Article content The government will also have to take into account population growth, which has slowed since the immigration cuts were announced. During the fourth quarter of 2024, Canada's population grew by 0.2 per cent, the slowest quarterly growth rate since the end of 2020. Article content 'Those declines in population growth, that's an issue that is the object of an important national conversation that we're not really having. We're not meaningfully having that conversation, which is, do we want population growth? Or do we not? We're very dependent on immigration in that regard, and so we're not making that connection,' said Jack Jedwab, president and CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies and the Metropolis Institute. In a follow-up email, Jedwab noted that Prime Minister Mark Carney promised to return 'our overall immigration rates to sustainable levels,' in his mandate letter published on May 21. But that is a term 'that is open to much interpretation,' Jedwab said. Article content Article content According to Statistics Canada data, the overall population reached 41,528,680 on Jan. 1, 2025, up from 41,465,298 on Oct. 1, 2024, an increase of 63,382, the report states. 'By contrast, the population increase between the two previous quarters was 176,699. Immigration level reductions played a critical role in the outcome,' the report states. Article content Article content While the number of new permanent residents in a single quarter declined by 15 per cent, when comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, the largest reduction in newcomers was attributed to temporary residents who came via the International Mobility Program (IMP). The program allows companies to hire temporary foreign workers without the usual Labour Market Impact Assessment. The IMP includes the post-graduate work permits granted to international students, the International Experience Canada stream for workers aged 18 to 35, free trade agreements, company transfers and permits for high-demand occupations, such as software engineers, among other programs.
