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The Hill
01-08-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Harris opens door to presidential run by declining California bid
Former Vice President Kamala Harris's decision not to run for California governor next year opens the door for her to enter what is already expected to be a crowded field for Democratic presidential candidates in 2028. Democrats — from operatives to donors and lawmakers — were particularly interested in Harris's decision as speculation mounts about which Democrats will run in 2028. And while Harris was the Democratic nominee just last year, political observers say the party's nomination is not necessarily hers for the taking. 'We live in a world where I don't think anybody getting into a race is going to stop anybody from getting into a race,' said Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who ran former President Obama's Florida operation in 2008. 'I don't think her entrance into the race changes anybody's calculus.' The 2028 race for the White House will not include an incumbent president, the first time that has happened since 2016. The battle for the Democratic nomination looks wide open, and many expect it to be the most crowded field in decades, with as many as 30 candidates considering a run. Some Democrats are already testing the waters. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has visited New Hampshire, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has plans to be in Michigan in October, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom launched a podcast where he invites not just Democrats but Republicans to talk politics. Harris is writing a book, which will be watched with great anticipation. Democrats are sure to be curious about her thoughts on the 2024 race, and how former President Biden affected her candidacy. Harris will enter the race as a front-runner given she won the nomination and had to ramp up her candidacy in a tight period of time after Biden's decision to drop out of the race in July 2024. But some caution that Democrats should not get too attached to Harris. 'It's in the Democrats' best interest … to make sure that no one appears to be elevated to the role of Democratic nominee,' said Democratic strategist Basil Smikle. 'People want to see a process and a debate about the future of the party. Make it robust. Make it passionate. And somebody will emerge.' 'Primaries can be very healthy for being able to sharpen the message and the messenger,' he added. Early polling on potential 2028 candidates suggest that while Harris is one front-runner, so far Buttigieg, Newsom and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.), a progressive leader, are also in the mix. All have spent time in the national spotlight in recent months. Other top potential Democratic candidates include Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. One McLaughlin poll in mid-July showed Harris leading the field with support from 25 percent of those surveyed. Another AtlasIntel poll in mid-July showed Harris with support from 14 percent of those surveyed. Buttigieg had 27 percent support, Ocasio-Cortez 19 percent and Newsom 16 percent. The outlines of the race come as the Democratic Party finds itself in the midst of an identity crisis. While there's energy on the left, some Democrats have made the argument that the party needs to find its way back to the middle in order to attract independents and even some Republicans. The fact that Harris lost the 2024 contest to President Trump will be a huge factor if she runs again in 2028, and some critics in the party already think Democrats should move in a different direction. 'Honestly, it's a mistake,' one Democratic donor said. 'We can't turn the page and have the same people run again.' 'She tried hard. She did a great job, but this doesn't mesh with the whole 'fresh faces, fresh ideas' narrative that we've all been kicking around since November's loss,' the donor said. 'We Democrats tend to do best in these presidential races when we put up a fresh face,' said longtime Democratic strategist Garry South, referring to former Presidents Obama, Clinton, and Carter. 'I mean, you can go all the way back to John F. Kennedy in 1960.' South added that right now, Democrats are looking for someone to 'bail them out' from their rudderless state, and 'I don't think they're going to see Kamala Harris in that light,' he said. In a Wednesday interview on CNN, Democratic strategist David Axelrod, who served as a strategist for Obama, said Harris will begin 'as the polling leader in any race for president' since she was the 2024 nominee. But Axelrod noted that 'a lot of Democrats want to turn the page on all of that and look forward, and so it's not going to be easy for her,' he said. Some strategists predict that if Harris were to run, a frequent talking point for the competition would be her performance as vice president under Biden. 'I think her time as vice president was unimpressive, at least neutral and maybe detrimental to a presidential run,' said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. 'So that will give all of her competitors the sense that while she has that vice presidential White House experience, which creates a real breadth of understanding that a senator or a governor just doesn't have, they'll also feel that she is vulnerable and the nomination is up for grabs.' But Harris allies maintain that the former vice president not only ran a good race in 2024 — having inherited it with only 107 days left in the campaign — but that she also came close to winning. And Harris has told allies that she would have won the race if she'd only had more time. 'She feels like she had the momentum and she came so close, so why wouldn't she run again?' one ally said. 'Only in this party would we reject someone who came within a yard of victory.' Harris's strengths could be enough for her to win the nomination again in 2028. 'The nomination still runs through Black women and the South,' Schale said, adding that Harris is, 'dare I say, probably even a front-runner' in the race — at least so far. 'It would be crazy to underestimate her,' he said.
The Star
31-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Lula's approval rises amid tariff dispute with Trump, poll shows
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends a ceremony at the Planalto Palace, in Brasilia, Brazil, July 30, 2025. REUTERS/Adriano Machado/File Photo SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Approval for Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva exceeded disapproval for the first time in nine months, a poll showed on Thursday, against a backdrop of a growing dispute with Washington. Earlier in July, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would slap 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to fight what he has called a "witch hunt" against Lula's right-wing rival, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Those tariffs were formalized on Thursday, albeit with some key sector exemptions. The Trump administration has also imposed sanctions and visa restrictions on the judge overseeing Bolsonaro's trial on charges of plotting a coup. Lula's government has pushed back, calling Trump an unwanted "emperor" and the sanctions "unacceptable." The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed 50.2% approval of Lula's performance, up from 49.7% in the previous poll two weeks ago and marking the first time he has scored greater approval than disapproval since October. The new poll adds to evidence that Trump's tactics may be backfiring in Brazil, rallying public support behind a defiant leftist government. The proportion of respondents who consider Lula's government good or great has also improved, now at 46.6% from 43.4%, although that is still below the 48.2% who consider it bad or awful. If a replay of the 2022 presidential election in Brazil was held this week, 47.8% of those surveyed would vote for Lula and 44.2% for Bolsonaro. Despite being barred from holding public office until 2030, Bolsonaro insists he could run again, while Lula has hinted that he could run for reelection. The poll surveyed 7,334 Brazilian adults online between July 25 and July 28. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point. (Reporting by Isabel Teles in Sao Paulo, editing by Manuela Andreoni and Rosalba O'Brien)
Bloomberg
31-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Lula Got More Popular in Lead-Up to Trump's 50% Tariffs on Brazil
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's popularity rose in the days before Donald Trump was set to kick off a full-blown trade war with Brazil over the treatment of his right-wing ally Jair Bolsonaro. Just over 50% of Brazilians approved of Lula in late July, up from 49.7 two weeks earlier, according to LatAm Pulse, a monthly survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News. His disapproval rating fell to 49.7% from 50.3% over the same time period. AtlasIntel surveyed 7,334 people in Brazil on July 25 to 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
NZ Herald
27-07-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
A boom in homes, cars, and flights contrasts with empty shops and restaurants
On one hand, wealthy and well-educated Argentines are enjoying Milei's economic policies that translated into greater buying power, which in turn led to more trips abroad and big-ticket purchases at home. For others, the story is quite different: spending on food, clothing and dining out is declining and 60% of Argentines anticipate making fewer purchases in the coming months, according to LatAm Pulse, a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News. Those concerns come as unemployment for salaried, formal jobs has hit a four-year high, while wages adjusted for inflation have declined in recent months. A 'For Sale' sign stands outside a house in Buenos Aires. Photo / Erica Canepa, Bloomberg via the Washington Post 'I'm barely making it to the end of the month,' says Valeria Ruiz, a 44-year old single mother-of-two who cleans homes and recently added a travel agency gig to boost her monthly income to 600,000 pesos (US$465), less than what she previously earned in retail with just one salary. In the past year, Ruiz has cut out restaurants. She now hunts for the cheapest brands of milk, pasta and yogurt at the supermarket. 'Things are harder now because the job market isn't like it was before: I always used have a lot of work, but everything has absolutely halted.' Ruiz isn't alone: 84% of the Argentines say they've changed their consumption habits due to the economy, including cutting back on clothing purchases and dining out, according to a survey by pollster Management & Fit. Meanwhile, 67% of them have a negative outlook on the economy, according to AtlasIntel. A survey by Argentina's statistics agency of supermarkets and wholesalers found 27% of store owners have a negative view on the state of business, versus only 7% who say it's positive. So far, voters' economic pessimism hasn't dented Milei's high approval ratings. He's managed to bring down inflation, revive mortgage lending and lift currency controls for individuals - all popular moves across society. But to tame inflation, the President has leaned on a stronger exchange rate that fuels demand for durable goods and favours wealthier Argentines, while making restaurants, local vacations and weekend shopping increasingly expensive for many others. The numbers are impacting Argentina's outlook: Economists in June trimmed forecasts for this year to 5% growth after steadily increasing projections in the five prior months - a solid rebound after two years of contractions. Economic activity in May sputtered though, posting the third negative monthly print of the year, albeit mild. A restaurant prepares for its dinner service in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Photo / Erica Canepa, Bloomberg via the Washington Post Auto sales rose 78% in the first six months of the year compared to the same period in 2024, as purchases of Porsche, Audi and BMW more than doubled, with Toyota and Volkswagen selling the most units. Home sales both in the city and province of Buenos Aires were up about 50% through May, and the number of Argentines travelling abroad rose 64%, according to industry reports and government statistics. Delta, American, Latam Airlines and Aerolineas Argentinas have added or plan to launch Argentina flights to meet rising demand later this year. Meanwhile, spending at restaurants in the city of Buenos Aires dropped in five of the past six months, and supermarkets haven't seen activity bounce back to pre-Milei levels yet. The number of vacant shops in the city rose in the first four months this year to the highest level, 896, since at least 2022. On average, only 43% of hotel rooms nationwide were occupied this year through May, consistently down from the same time span in past years and even lower than pre-pandemic levels. 'This is what happens with fixed exchange rate regimes - they boost durable goods consumption, appreciate the currency, and bring inflation down quickly,' said Marcos Buscaglia, co-founder of Buenos Aires-based consultancy Alberdi Partners. The parallel market peso has appreciated by 57% in real terms since Milei took office 18 months ago. 'On top of that, you have trade liberalisation pushing dollar prices even lower.' The opening of Argentina's economy allowed Flavio Ortega, a car dealership salesman in the elite Puerto Madero neighbourhood, to fill his showroom with imported cars and start selling volumes he hadn't moved since 2018. Purchases of BMWs more than doubled in the first six months of the year. Photo / Erica Canepa, Bloomberg via the Washington Post For the past five years, tight import restrictions meant the 45-year-old Ortega could barely display two cars at a time - a set-up that discouraged buyers. But auto imports in June alone were up almost 250% from a year ago. 'In 2025, with imports back, we're able to showcase up to 13 vehicles worth as much as $80,000 each - and we've already doubled last year's sales,' he said. Gaston Aybar closed 40% more real estate transactions in the first half of the year compared to same time in 2024. A stronger peso, lower interest rates that made mortgages more accessible and Milei's tax amnesty programme that convinced Argentines to declare dollar-denominated assets late last year are driving sales. The realtor says mortgages are making it possible for middle-class Argentines to buy or upgrade their homes, even though it comes with tighter monthly budgets. 'Today is a moment when people are trying to invest in something that's lasting,' says Aybar, 49. 'People with some basic savings are asking themselves, 'Do I spend it on a car, vacation or do I cut back spending and take out a mortgage?' There's a shift in people's thinking to bet on housing.'
Newsweek
21-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Democrats Get Good News from Most Accurate Pollster About Key Trump Issue
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. American voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on immigration, which has been a key issue for President Donald Trump throughout his political career, according to a new poll from AtlasIntel. Heath Brown, professor of public policy at the City University of New York, told Newsweek in part that "it could come down to the difference between campaign rhetoric and actual governance." Newsweek reached out to the Republican and Democratic national committees for comment via email. Why It Matters Trump, for a decade, has emphasized immigration as his key policy—launching his 2016 presidential campaign with a promise to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, with a focus on mass deportations during his 2024 campaign. Polling suggested immigration was a key issue as to why many of his voters supported him over former Vice President Kamala Harris last November. However, a flurry of recent surveys suggests the GOP's grip on immigration has slipped amid backlash to his mass deportations. This includes the latest survey from AtlasIntel, which was the most accurate pollster during the 2024 election. What to Know The pollster found that Democrats now have an advantage over Republicans on most key political issues, including inflation, healthcare, and foreign policy. It also found that Democrats have chipped away at Republican support on immigration issues. Demonstrators hold up signs outside an immigration court in New York City during the Good Trouble Lives On protests on July 17, 2025. Demonstrators hold up signs outside an immigration court in New York City during the Good Trouble Lives On protests on July 17, 2025. ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images Only 45 percent of respondents said they trusted Republicans more on immigration, while 49 percent said they trusted Democrats more on the matter. Meanwhile, a majority of Americans also disapprove of Trump's handling of immigration, with 53 percent giving him negative marks and only 42 percent approving of his approach, according to the poll. The poll surveyed 1,935 respondents from July 13 to July 18, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Heath Brown, professor of public policy at the City University of New York, told Newsweek that "it could come down to the difference between campaign rhetoric and actual governance." "Vague campaign promises to address immigration policy may have been popular among voters in 2024," he said. "However, faced with the reality of extreme immigration policies that curtail non-US students enrollment at US universities, raid places of work and education, and prohibit due process for deportation cases, a majority of Americans are very much opposed." The poll is a "reflection of the overall dissatisfaction of many Americans with the Trump policy agenda," he said. Throughout Trump's second term in office, there has been an increase of ICE raids across the country that have sparked protests in places like Los Angeles. Thousands of immigrants, including some who are in the country legally, have been arrested. Other measures, like the "Alligator Alcatraz" detention center in Florida's Everglades, are unpopular among most Americans. Proponents of the fast-build center, however, say it is necessary to deal with the number of new beds needed. Supporters of the GOP's immigration policy note that border crossings have decreased under his administration. What People Are Saying Representative Mike Levin, a California Democrat, wrote in an X post Saturday: "Latest Reuters poll shows disapproval for Trump's immigration policy has surged since February. Americans want security AND humanity, not cruelty and chaos. That's why we need bipartisan, common sense reform like our DIGNITY Act, rooted in real solutions." CNN Harry Enten said earlier in July: "The American people have turned against President Donald Trump on what was his best issue. One in which he had a positive net approval rating for most of his term, and arguably the issue that got him, of course, the GOP nomination all the way back in 2016. And one of the issues, of course, he used last year to quite a successful degree." What Happens Next Trump's mass deportations continue across the United States, though parts of his immigration agenda have been held up in court. Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" increased funding for ICE.
