Latest news with #BT
Business Times
6 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
US tariffs, trade tensions to slow growth in developing Asia and Pacific: ADB
[MANILA] Higher US tariffs and trade uncertainty have worsened the economic outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report on Wednesday (Jul 23) as it lowered its growth forecasts for the region for this year and next. Domestic demand is expected to weaken as factors including geopolitics, supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices and uncertainty in China's property market buffer the region, the Asian Development Outlook report said. The ADB cut its 2025 growth forecast for the region to 4.7 per cent from an earlier projection of 4.9 per cent made in April. The forecast for 2026 was trimmed to 4.6 per cent, from 4.7 per cent. 'Asia and the Pacific has weathered an increasingly challenging external environment this year. But the economic outlook has weakened amid intensifying risks and global uncertainty,' said ADB chief economist Albert Park. Among the sub regions, South-east Asia was expected to slow the most, with growth now projected at 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026, down from earlier forecasts of 4.7 per cent for both years. 'Economies in the region should continue strengthening their fundamentals and promoting open trade and regional integration to support investment, employment, and growth,' Park said. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The ADB defines developing Asia and the Pacific as 46 economies ranging from China to Georgia to Samoa, and excluding countries such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand. The forecasts were released shortly after US President Donald Trump said that the US and Japan had struck a deal that includes a 15 per cent tariff on Japanese exports, lower than a threatened 25 per cent rate. Trump also announced a new 19 per cent tariff rate for goods from the Philippines, below the threatened 20 per cent levy flagged earlier this month but still above a 17 per cent rate announced in April. He has upended global trade flows with tariffs on nearly every trading partner, with almost all countries facing a 10 per cent tariff that took effect in April and many facing steep additional tariffs from Aug 1. AFP
Business Times
6 hours ago
- Sport
- Business Times
Chinese travellers make the rounds in Asia for high-profile events
[SINGAPORE] Star-studded concerts and international sporting events have gained importance as critical drivers of tourist revenue in South-east Asia and Greater China, as the Chinese travel wave returns in 2025. Cities such as Singapore, Bangkok and Jakarta have emerged as prominent hotspots for large-scale events, owing to their accessibility to international travellers and suitable infrastructure for such events, said senior regional director for South-east Asia, Edmund Ong. Visits centring around such events have become increasingly common in the region, with a notable rise in tourists from mainland China choosing to travel to attend concerts, festivals and sports games. 'As the Chinese outbound wave gains speed, expect events to be the engine driving it,' Ong added. BT takes a look at some of the region's largest events in 2025. Sports events World Artistic Gymnastics Championships 2025 Where and when: A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Jakarta, Indonesia: Oct 19-25 According to bookings on the platform to the Indonesian capital during this period have surged over 150 per cent year on year as sports fans seek to cheer on gymnasts. The event is likely to attract fans from Asian giants Japan and China, who finished second and third in overall medal counts, respectively, during the games' 2023 iteration. 33rd South-east Asian Games Where and when: Bangkok, Chonburi and Songkhla, Thailand: Dec 9-20 With events spanning several cities, the 33rd South-east Asian Games is expected to attract over 500,000 spectators, according to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. Tourists bookings are expected to surge by 93 per cent year on year, noted in a report, as Thailand hopes for a strong end for its tourism sector's quiet year. World Aquatics Championships 2025 Where and when: Singapore: Jul 11 - Aug 3 Inbound travel bookings increased by 31 per cent to Singapore during the period, report noted. The most demand was from Indonesian travellers, with a 36 per cent year on year rise from the previous year, while Chinese visitors surged 24 per cent. Concerts High-profile international musicians have also become large draws for tourists in markets across Asia. 'Exclusive experiences such as live events provide compelling reasons to travel, often with extended stays and premium bookings,' said Ong. Last March, pop superstar Taylor Swift's six concerts in Singapore were estimated to have boosted the country's tourist revenues by up to S$500 million. Ong noted that the agency had seen a sizeable uptick in interest from China, with events such as Lady Gaga's Singapore concert in May drawing strong international bookings from China. G-Dragon's 'Ubermensch' world tour Where and when: Jakarta, Indonesia: Jul 26 Hong Kong, China: Aug 9 and 10 The K-pop megastar has already held sold-out concerts across the region, with stops in Macau, the Philippines, Taipei, and Kuala Lumpur. However, a planned show in Bangkok in August was cancelled, with organisers citing concerns about a 'heat wave' in the intended open-air stadium. This adds to the continuing wave of struggles that Thailand's tourism sector has experienced in 2025, after an earthquake and the kidnapping of a Chinese actor spooked tourists earlier this year. Tyler, the Creator's 'Chromakopia' world tour Where and when: Bangkok, Thailand: Sep 16 Manila, the Philippines: Sep 20 and 21 Blackpink's 'Deadline' world tour Where and when: Bangkok, Thailand: Oct 24-26 Jakarta, Indonesia: Nov 1-2 Bulacan, the Philippines: Nov 22-23 Singapore: Nov 29-30 Popular K-pop group Blackpink and American rapper Tyler, the Creator's concerts are expected to bring a significant boost in tourism revenues to the four South-east Asian countries they will visit as part of ongoing world tours. In Singapore, OCBC chief economist Selena Ling said in a June note that Blackpink's November concert is likely to 'brighten the tourism landscape' in the country. Such trends in tourism reflect a 'broader evolution in consumer preferences', noted Ong. 'Travel is no longer just about the destination, but also about why they're travelling, and events play a big part in that,' he added. This has further influenced the manner in which tourism boards, travel platforms and event organisers fine-tune their business strategies. 'For example, they are bundling packages, syncing calendars, and strategically placing events in cities like Singapore, Bangkok, and Jakarta,' Ong said.
Business Times
6 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Trump tariff deals bring some clarity for Asia, the world's manufacturing base
[HONG KONG] After months of uncertainty, US President Donald Trump's latest tariff deals are providing clarity on the broad contours of a new trade landscape for the world's biggest manufacturing region. On Tuesday (Jul 22), he announced a deal with Japan that sets tariffs on the nation's imports at 15 per cent, including for autos —– by far the biggest component of the trade deficit between the countries. A separate agreement with the Philippines set a 19 per cent rate, the same level as Indonesia agreed and a percentage point below Vietnam's 20 per cent baseline level, signaling that the bulk of South-east Asia is likely to get a similar rate. 'We live in a new normal where 10 per cent is the new zero and so 15 per cent and 20 per cent doesn't seem so bad if everyone else got it,' said Trinh Nguyen, senior economist for emerging Asia at Natixis. 'At a 15-20 per cent tariff level, it's still profitable for US companies to import from abroad rather than produce similar goods at home, she said. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for a third round of talks aimed at extending a tariff truce and widening the discussions. That suggests a continuing stabilisation in ties between the world's two largest economies after the US recently eased chip curbs and China resumed rare earths exports. 'We are getting along with China very well,' Trump told reporters on Tuesday. 'We have a very good relationship.' BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Throw it all together and a level of predictability is finally emerging after six months of tariff threats that had at one point jacked up tariff levels to 145 per cent on China and near 50 per cent on some smaller Asian exporters. Investors cheered the moves, with Asian shares rising the most in a month and contracts for the S&P 500 up 0.2 per cent. The Nikkei-225 index in Japan jumped 3.2 per cent, with Toyota Motor and other carmakers leading the gains. 'What's been interesting to me is that equity markets still have been fairly rosy about the changes,' said the Asian Development Bank's chief economist Albert Park. 'I'm not sure they have priced in fully all of the effects that are likely to occur from the disruption of higher tariff rates.' Back in April, Trump hit the pause button on the steepest levies after a rare combination of weakening US stocks, bonds and the dollar showed investors were unnerved by his protectionist salvos. That bought time for policymakers from Tokyo, Manila and across the globe to negotiate more palatable deals. Although the latest deals bring some relief, key questions remain. The Trump administration is still considering a range of sectoral tariffs on goods like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals that will be critical for Asian economies including Taiwan and India – both of which have yet to announce tariff agreements with the US. South Korea is also more exposed to sectoral tariffs, even though the Japan deal provides a potential template for new President Lee Jae Myung. As Trump moves quickly on talks with countries accounting for the bulk of the US trade deficit, he has said he may hit around 150 smaller countries with a blanket rate of between 10 per cent and 15 per cent. With some certainty on tariff levels now emerging, businesses with complex supply chains across Asia and still reliant of the US consumer can start to game out how they will shift operations to minimize the hit to sales. Just like the first trade war in 2018, the latest tariff announcements are likely to spur companies to increasingly shift production outside of China. The average tariff rate on the world's second-largest economy remains the highest in the region, and continued White House pressure on the nation's technology and trade ambitions means companies may find more stability elsewhere. Companies and industry groups have been flagging for months that uncertainty is worse than tariffs for investment. The manufacturing sector across the South-east Asian region saw the most notable weakening since August 2021, according to S&P PMI, led by a sharper decrease in new orders, major job cuts and weaker purchasing activity. The front-loading of shipments from Asia to the US to get ahead of the incoming levies will likely slow once the new rates kick in. While there is relief that tariff rates for South-east Asian economies and 15 per cent for Japan are lower than some of Trump's earlier threats, the reality is that they are far higher than they were before he took office in January. The latest deals 'continue the trend of tariff rates gravitating towards the 15-20% range that Trump recently indicated to be his preferred level for the blanket rate instead of 10% currently,' Barclays analysts including Brian Tan wrote in a note. That skews risks to GDP growth forecasts for Asia 'to the downside', they wrote. For US consumers who have so far been spared the tariff ticket shock, economists warn there's likely to be some pass through in the months ahead. Goldman Sachs economists now expect the US baseline 'reciprocal' tariff rate will rise from 10 per cent to 15 per cent – an outcome that threatens to fuel inflation and weigh on economic growth. US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has argued he wants to see where tariffs land and how they filter through the economy before cutting interest rates – much to the annoyance of Trump. For now, Trump is hailing a win on trade, and investors seem overall relieved. 'I just signed the largest trade deal in history – I think maybe the largest deal in history – with Japan,' Trump said at an event at the White House on Tuesday after announcing the deal on social media. 'It's a great deal for everybody.' BLOOMBERG
Business Times
8 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
BOJ sees trade deal as raising chance of meeting inflation goal
[TOKYO] Japan's trade deal with the US has reduced uncertainty surrounding the economy, the central bank's deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said, signalling optimism that conditions for resuming interest rate hikes may start to fall in place. Uchida's remark came hours after US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Tokyo that cuts tariffs on Japan's mainstay automobile imports and spares Tokyo punishing new levies on some other goods. 'It's a very big progress that reduces uncertainty for Japan's economy,' Uchida said on Wednesday (Jul 23), adding that the BOJ will incorporate the deal in its quarterly growth and price projections due at the next policy meeting on July 30-31. 'Given the receding uncertainty, by definition it can be said that the likelihood of Japan durably achieving 2 per cent inflation has heightened,' Uchida told a news conference. BOJ policymakers have repeatedly said they need to be more convinced that inflation will sustainably hit its 2 per cent target before raising interest rates further. While there was still some uncertainty on how the tariffs could affect domestic and overseas economies, the BOJ was looking at both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, Uchida said. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'The BOJ needs to adjust monetary policy to best balance upside and downside risks from the perspective of maintaining economic and price stability,' Uchida said in an earlier speech to business leaders in the southern west city of Kochi. He reiterated the BOJ's resolve to continue raising interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts. Sources have told Reuters the BOJ's next quarterly report will warn of uncertainty over the impact of US tariffs, but may offer a less gloomy view on the near-term hit to the economy than three months ago, when market volatility was at its peak. Uchida said the trade deal would hugely reduce uncertainty for companies and, coupled with intensifying labour shortages, prod them to continue to hike wages. The BOJ expects underlying inflation, or price rises driven by strength in domestic demand, to reach its 2 per cent target around the latter half of fiscal 2026 through 2027, he added. While media reports that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may step down could add to political uncertainty, receding worries about a US-Japan trade deal led some analysts to predict the chance of another rate hike by the end of this year. 'The trade deal with the US announced today removes a key downside risk to Japan's economy,' said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics. 'And while the potential resignation of Ishiba creates political risks, our conviction that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle before the end of the year has risen,' Thieliant said. A Reuters poll showed a majority of economists expect the BOJ to raise its key interest rate again by year-end, though most expect the bank to stand pat at this month's meeting. REUTERS
Business Times
11 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Trump deals bring some clarity for world's manufacturing base
[HONG KONG] After months of uncertainty, US President Donald Trump's latest tariff deals are providing clarity on the broad contours of a new trade landscape for the world's biggest manufacturing region. Trump on Tuesday (Jul 22) announced a deal with Japan that sets tariffs on the nation's imports at 15 per cent, including for autos, by far the biggest component of the trade deficit between the countries. A separate agreement with the Philippines set a 19 per cent rate, the same level as Indonesia agreed and a percentage point below Vietnam's 20 per cent baseline level, signalling that the bulk of South-east Asia is likely to get a similar rate. At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for their third round of talks aimed at extending a tariff truce and widening the discussions. That suggests a continuing stabilisation in ties between the world's two largest economies after the US recently eased chip curbs and China resumed rare earths exports. 'We are getting along with China very well,' Trump told reporters on Tuesday. 'We have a very good relationship.' Throw it all together and a level of predictability is finally emerging after six months of tariff threats that had at one point jacked up tariff levels to 145 per cent on China and nearly 50 per cent on some smaller Asian exporters. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Investors cheered the moves, with Asian shares rising the most in a month and contracts for the S&P 500 up 0.2 per cent. The Nikkei-225 index in Japan jumped 3.2 per cent, with Toyota Motor and other carmakers leading the gains. Back in April, Trump hit the pause button on the steepest levies after a rare combination of weakening US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar showed investors were unnerved by his protectionist salvos. That bought time for policymakers from Tokyo, Manila and across the globe to negotiate more palatable deals. Although the latest deals bring some relief, key questions remain. The Trump administration is still considering a range of sectoral tariffs on goods such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals that will be critical for Asian economies, including Taiwan and India, both of which have yet to announce tariff agreements with the US. South Korea is also more exposed to sectoral tariffs, even though the Japan deal provides a potential template for new President Lee Jae Myung. As Trump moves quickly on talks with countries accounting for the bulk of the US trade deficit, he has said he may hit around 150 smaller countries with a blanket rate of between 10 per cent and 15 per cent. With some certainty on tariff levels now emerging, businesses with complex supply chains across Asia and still reliant of the US consumer can start to game out how they will shift operations to minimise the hit to sales. For US consumers who have so far been spared the tariff ticket shock, economists warn there's likely to be some pass-through in the months ahead. The front-loading of shipments from Asia to the US to get ahead of the incoming levies will likely slow once the new rates kick in. While there's relief that tariff rates for South-east Asian economies and 15 per cent for Japan are lower than some of Trump's earlier threats, the reality is that they are far higher than they were before he took office. The latest deals 'continue the trend of tariff rates gravitating towards the 15 to 20 per cent range that US President Donald Trump recently indicated to be his preferred level for the blanket rate instead of 10 per cent currently', Barclays analysts including Brian Tan wrote in a note. That skews risks to GDP growth forecasts for Asia 'to the downside', they wrote. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has argued he wants to see where tariffs land and how they filter through the economy before cutting interest rates – much to the annoyance of Trump. For now, Trump is hailing a win on trade, and investors seem overall relieved. 'I just signed the largest trade deal in history, I think maybe the largest deal in history, with Japan,' Trump said at an event at the White House on Tuesday after announcing the deal on social media. 'It's a great deal for everybody.' BLOOMBERG
