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Economic Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty awaits trigger as June series kicks off with cautious tone, 25,100 key level: Rahul Ghose
Markets ended the week on a cautious note, marking the second consecutive week of consolidation. This subdued performance came amid ongoing global trade tensions and anticipation surrounding domestic policy developments. ADVERTISEMENT The benchmark indices, the Sensex and the Nifty, witnessed notable volatility through the week, eventually closing lower as investors reacted to uncertainties over U.S. tariff developments. Analyst Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO, Octanom Tech and interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty along with an index strategy for the upcoming series. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat: The Nifty 50 index is currently in a consolidation phase, trading between 24,462 and 25,116, reflecting market indecision. The series of Dojis and spinning tops on the daily and weekly time frame further suggests that markets are likely to stay range-bound in the short to medium term. Key support resides at 24,164-23,935, while resistance is seen at 25,070 to 25,150. The June F&O series begins with elevated open interest (1.26 crore shares) but reduced FII long positions compared to previous months. Historically, June has been favourable, with three positive returns in the last four years. Nifty can head to 25,740, once we see two closings above the 25,100 mark, until then one should only look to be in hedged positions. Bank Nifty is consolidating between 53,500 and 56,000 with a series of indecisive candles. A sustained move above 56,100 (which is the high of the bearish engulfing candle) could trigger a rally toward 56,700. Bank Nifty looks likely to break out. ADVERTISEMENT FIIs reduced Nifty long positions to half of April/May levels, indicating caution. However, their net buying in April-May (Rs 25,841 crore) and focus on the RBI policy (June 6) and monsoon progress suggest potential catalysts for renewed momentum. ADVERTISEMENT The index's rangebound action (24,160–25,100) favours stock-specific opportunities, particularly in sectors like IT and pharma, showing relative strength. Index traders should wait for a confirmed breakout/breakdown. A move below 23,900 levels will open the opportunity for further downside where whereas a move above 25,100 levels would lead to an upside. The bigger time frame price action suggests that, probability of Nifty moving towards the upside is much higher than the downside. ADVERTISEMENT RIL is forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart and is currently testing the upper boundary near Rs 1,440. A breakout above Rs 1,440 with volume confirmation could lead to a move toward Rs 1,530-1,550 levels. The stock is holding above its 50-DMA and showing positive RSI divergence on the hourly chart — a sign of latent strength. Short-term support lies at Rs 1,396-1,390 like RIL, HDFC Bank is trading in a symmetrical triangle formation. A break above 1980 levels with good volumes could lead the stock towards newer highs. Rs 1,980 happens to be a short-term resistance for the stock with a strong engulfing bear candle. As Bank Nifty is expected to remain bullish, HDFC Bank is likely to break out sooner rather than later. ADVERTISEMENT ICICI Bank is slightly overstretched on the monthly & quarterly time frames. The RSI levels on a monthly basis are around 75, and quarterly, around 85. Since structurally it is in a strong uptrend, one should look to enter on a pullback rather than impulsively jumping around the CMP. Rs 1,300-1,320 area would be a good level to stock is in a strong uptrend on all time frames. However, considering the vertical rally in the stock recently, buying in a staggered manner would be a better approach. The bigger time frame charts of Suzlon are bullish and the stock could continue to trade with a strong momentum. The weekly and monthly RSI levels of Suzlon are above 60, suggesting a strong uptrend. Friday closed with a Gravestone DOJI candle after a strong gap up, signalling the stock could pull back in the short term. A pullback towards 58-60 would be a good opportunity for re-entry. Ola continues to make lower tops and lower bottoms on a daily and weekly time frame. The buying structure is clearly not visible on price charts. Such stocks are better entered when the stock breaks out post some sort of base formation, like it happened in Nyka or Zomato. Currently, this is not visible in Ola. Technically, Mazdock is extremely strong and all pullbacks will be potential buying opportunities. With the recent rally, the indicators have obviously entered an overbought territory, which means traders should only look to enter such stocks on a pullback. On charts,a pullback to the levels of Rs 2,800-2,900 would be a good point to enter. This level has a confluence with the 50 DMA & offers a good reward to risk ratio. Bajaj Auto is currently trading around the monthly 20 EMA & has been consolidating around that level for 2-3 months. The stock might continue to hover around this range before moving up again. Overall, technically, the stock looks positive. Among the sectors, Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty metals look positive on charts, whereas Nifty FMCG & Nifty Auto look negative. Nifty Auto and FMCG are showing signs of consolidation on monthly charts & one needs to be very selective while picking stocks in these sectors. Nifty IT & Nifty metals look to be in strong momentum, trading close to their key averages. Any pullbacks would be an opportunity to IT Picks: Largecaps (Infosys, TCS) for stability; midcaps (Coforge, Persistent) for breakout Bank & Reliance, both heavyweights, look to be on the verge of a breakout on the daily charts. Cummins looks to be a strong momentum play and has huge potential in the short to medium term. The stock has just come out of a base formation on weekly & is showing signs of moving towards Rs 3,700-4,000 levels in the short-term Nifty: Trade the range (24,400–25,100) with stops. Go long above 25,100& short below 23900 levels. Sector – Overweight on Banking & Midcap IT, Underweight on FMCG. Trade with tight stop losses. Be willing to change stance from bullish to bearish and vice-versa if the market breaks key levels on either side (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
10 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Nifty awaits trigger as June series kicks off with cautious tone, 25,100 key level: Rahul Ghose
Markets ended the week on a cautious note, marking the second consecutive week of consolidation. This subdued performance came amid ongoing global trade tensions and anticipation surrounding domestic policy developments. The benchmark indices, the Sensex and the Nifty , witnessed notable volatility through the week, eventually closing lower as investors reacted to uncertainties over U.S. tariff developments. Analyst Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO, Octanom Tech and interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty along with an index strategy for the upcoming series. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat: How is Nifty positioned technically as we step into the June series? The Nifty 50 index is currently in a consolidation phase, trading between 24,462 and 25,116, reflecting market indecision. The series of Dojis and spinning tops on the daily and weekly time frame further suggests that markets are likely to stay range-bound in the short to medium term. Key support resides at 24,164-23,935, while resistance is seen at 25,070 to 25,150. The June F&O series begins with elevated open interest (1.26 crore shares) but reduced FII long positions compared to previous months. Historically, June has been favourable, with three positive returns in the last four years. Nifty can head to 25,740, once we see two closings above the 25,100 mark, until then one should only look to be in hedged positions. Live Events Bank Nifty was eyeing its all-time high recently — how does the setup look now? Bank Nifty is consolidating between 53,500 and 56,000 with a series of indecisive candles. A sustained move above 56,100 (which is the high of the bearish engulfing candle) could trigger a rally toward 56,700. Bank Nifty looks likely to break out. What signals are you getting from recent FII activity? FIIs reduced Nifty long positions to half of April/May levels, indicating caution. However, their net buying in April-May (Rs 25,841 crore) and focus on the RBI policy (June 6) and monsoon progress suggest potential catalysts for renewed momentum. Given the current structure, is there more clarity in trading the index or individual stocks? The index's rangebound action (24,160–25,100) favours stock-specific opportunities, particularly in sectors like IT and pharma, showing relative strength. Index traders should wait for a confirmed breakout/breakdown. A move below 23,900 levels will open the opportunity for further downside where whereas a move above 25,100 levels would lead to an upside. The bigger time frame price action suggests that, probability of Nifty moving towards the upside is much higher than the downside. Let's talk about some heavyweights — what's the technical setup for RIL right now? RIL is forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart and is currently testing the upper boundary near Rs 1,440. A breakout above Rs 1,440 with volume confirmation could lead to a move toward Rs 1,530-1,550 levels. The stock is holding above its 50-DMA and showing positive RSI divergence on the hourly chart — a sign of latent strength. Short-term support lies at Rs 1,396-1,390 levels. How does HDFC Bank look on the charts? Just like RIL, HDFC Bank is trading in a symmetrical triangle formation. A break above 1980 levels with good volumes could lead the stock towards newer highs. Rs 1,980 happens to be a short-term resistance for the stock with a strong engulfing bear candle. As Bank Nifty is expected to remain bullish, HDFC Bank is likely to break out sooner rather than later. What's your technical view on ICICI Bank? ICICI Bank is slightly overstretched on the monthly & quarterly time frames. The RSI levels on a monthly basis are around 75, and quarterly, around 85. Since structurally it is in a strong uptrend, one should look to enter on a pullback rather than impulsively jumping around the CMP. Rs 1,300-1,320 area would be a good level to enter. How is Bharti Airtel trading technically? The stock is in a strong uptrend on all time frames. However, considering the vertical rally in the stock recently, buying in a staggered manner would be a better approach. Let's have your view on the companies that have reported their Q4 earnings recently. What are the chart signals saying for Suzlon? The bigger time frame charts of Suzlon are bullish and the stock could continue to trade with a strong momentum. The weekly and monthly RSI levels of Suzlon are above 60, suggesting a strong uptrend. Friday closed with a Gravestone DOJI candle after a strong gap up, signalling the stock could pull back in the short term. A pullback towards 58-60 would be a good opportunity for re-entry. Ola has been in focus — is there a tradable structure visible on the charts? Ola continues to make lower tops and lower bottoms on a daily and weekly time frame. The buying structure is clearly not visible on price charts. Such stocks are better entered when the stock breaks out post some sort of base formation, like it happened in Nyka or Zomato. Currently, this is not visible in Ola. What's the technical outlook for Mazdock right now? Technically, Mazdock is extremely strong and all pullbacks will be potential buying opportunities. With the recent rally, the indicators have obviously entered an overbought territory, which means traders should only look to enter such stocks on a pullback. On charts,a pullback to the levels of Rs 2,800-2,900 would be a good point to enter. This level has a confluence with the 50 DMA & offers a good reward to risk ratio. How is Bajaj Auto positioned technically after its recent moves? Bajaj Auto is currently trading around the monthly 20 EMA & has been consolidating around that level for 2-3 months. The stock might continue to hover around this range before moving up again. Overall, technically, the stock looks positive. With the earnings season largely behind us, how are the key sectoral charts shaping up? Among the sectors, Nifty Bank , Nifty IT and Nifty metals look positive on charts, whereas Nifty FMCG & Nifty Auto look negative. Nifty Auto and FMCG are showing signs of consolidation on monthly charts & one needs to be very selective while picking stocks in these sectors. Nifty IT & Nifty metals look to be in strong momentum, trading close to their key averages. Any pullbacks would be an opportunity to buy. What are your top technical picks in the IT space — both largecaps and midcaps? Top IT Picks: Largecaps (Infosys, TCS) for stability; midcaps (Coforge, Persistent) for breakout potential. Which stocks are currently showing strong technical setups or breakout potential? HDFC Bank & Reliance, both heavyweights, look to be on the verge of a breakout on the daily charts. Cummins looks to be a strong momentum play and has huge potential in the short to medium term. The stock has just come out of a base formation on weekly & is showing signs of moving towards Rs 3,700-4,000 levels in the short-term Finally, what can be a go-to strategy for the tarders to navigate the June series? Nifty : Trade the range (24,400–25,100) with stops. Go long above 25,100& short below 23900 levels. Sector – Overweight on Banking & Midcap IT, Underweight on FMCG. Trade with tight stop losses. Be willing to change stance from bullish to bearish and vice-versa if the market breaks key levels on either side ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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Business Standard
a day ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Market regulator Sebi move to clip HDFC, ICICI wings in Bank Nifty
The latest measures introduced by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for the futures & options (F&O) segment may adversely impact HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank stocks. Market participants anticipate a churn of nearly $1 billion as passive funds tracking the Bank Nifty and Bankex indices adjust to the new regulations. They expect significant selling pressure, particularly on HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. Currently, both banking giants carry a weighting of over 25 per cent each in the 12-member Nifty Bank index, a widely followed benchmark in the derivatives segment. In a move aimed at reducing index concentration and volatility, the markets regulator has now capped the weighting of a single stock in non-benchmark indices at 20 per cent. It has also mandated that such indices must include at least 14 constituents, with the combined weighting of the top three components limited to 45 per cent. Experts said Sebi's move came amid fears that thematic indices run the risk of manipulation due to high concentration of individual stocks. These changes, announced by the markets regulator on Thursday, will be implemented by November 3. Brian Freitas of Periscope Analytics, who publishes research on the Smartkarma platform, expects significant outflows from HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank as a result of the changes. He estimates that HDFC Bank could face selling to the tune of ₹2,140 crore, while ICICI Bank may see ₹1,673 crore in sales, in line with the newly imposed 20 per cent cap on weightings. Conversely, Freitas anticipates the inclusion of Yes Bank and Union Bank of India in the Bank Nifty index, taking the total number of constituents to 14. Their additions are expected to trigger inflows of ₹888 crore and ₹600 crore for the respective stocks. Other Bank Nifty components may see inflows ranging from ₹60 crore to ₹400 crore due to redistribution of capital following the reduced weighting of HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. While the recommendations must be implemented by November 3, it is likely that the index provider will make these changes during the next rebalance in September, according to Freitas. There is a small possibility that the capping changes could be implemented in the June quarter, with the two index inclusions occurring in the September quarter. Alternatively, the capping changes could be rolled out in two phases: The first at the end of June and the second (including the two inclusions) in September, he said. A phased rollout could help in smooth implementation. The churn resulting from the reconstitution of the Bankex will be in addition to this. However, this index is not as widely tracked by passive funds as the Bank Nifty index.
Economic Times
a day ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Any dip towards 24,500-24,700 should be looked at as a buying opportunity: Dharmesh Shah
Live Events You Might Also Like: Stock market update: Nifty Realty index falls 0.64% in a weak market You Might Also Like: CA Rudramurthy BV on crucial Nifty levels to watch; 2 stocks to buy (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel AVP-Technical Analyst,, says the way the market breadth seems to be improving, supported by global setup, Nifty is expected to head towards 25,500 which is the upper band of the channel and should get a breakout above 25,100 and we should look for a target of 25,500 in June. Strong positional support is placed at 24,200- 24,500. Any dip towards 24,500 to 24,700 should be looked at as a buying opportunity The market has been consolidating in this range of 24,200-25,100 in the last few trading sessions, but we should not forget that we had already seen a 14% rally from the bottom of 21,800. We believe this consolidation makes the markets more healthy and we believe such consolidations are always supported by the next leg of way the market breadth seems to be improving, supported by global setup, we expect Nifty to head towards 25,500 which is again the upper band of the channel and should get a breakout above 25,100 and we should look for a target of 25,500 in June. Strong positional support is placed at 24,200- 24,500. Any dip towards 24,500 to 24,700 should be looked at as a buying if you look in the current context, the rallies are getting bigger and the falls are getting smaller and smaller. So, elongation of rallies supported by shallow retracement indicates the robust price structure. We believe any dip towards 24,500 to 24,600 should be looked at as a buying opportunity for a target of 25, you look at the market in the current context, we believe banking as a sector has been consolidating for the last six weeks after a sharp move. It has been consolidating in this range of 53,000 to 55,000. We expect the Bank Nifty should be in focus in the coming week where you also have RBI policy, so more focus towards the rate sensitive sectors.I believe we should be looking for a target of around 57,000 from the Bank Nifty perspective. Apart from banking, auto and real estate which are part of the interest rate sensitive sector should be in focus. So, banking, auto, real estate, metals are the ones where we remain you look at the market broader, when your broader market is also doing good and if you see the individual sectors, you do not see any weakness in much of any of the sectors. So, maybe, it is the only sector where you have lots of news flow floating in terms of global. That is something where you have a very mixed picture where largecaps look more comfortable compared to the midcaps. IT and pharma seem to be impacted by global news flow, and should be avoided. But otherwise one can be positive on most other sectors going Now: Help us with your stock picks. Any particular stock that is standing out for Shah: Yes, inside the metal, we remain positive on metals where HEG remains to be our top pick. If you look at the metal index, again the index is finding a support at the long-term rising trend line in metal index and also if you look particularly inside the metal, HEG remains to be our top pick where again the news flow also remains to be more positive for HEG because if you look at the most of these global players in graphite electrodes, it seems to be the penetration seems to be moving towards the steel making process which is something big for HEG. We believe HEG is one where the stock seems to be finding support at 200-week moving average supported by falling channel breakout. We expect HEG to head towards 575, 580 keeping a stop loss of 467, inside the metal space we remain to be positive from HEG, ELGI Equipment in capital good space is a company with good sets of numbers and the stock has already seen a good correction of almost 40% from the top, forming a strong base above 200-week EMA and with a falling channel breakout, we expect this stock to head towards Rs 575, 580. ELGI Equipment and HEG remain our top picks.
Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
Any dip towards 24,500-24,700 should be looked at as a buying opportunity: Dharmesh Shah
Live Events You Might Also Like: Stock market update: Nifty Realty index falls 0.64% in a weak market You Might Also Like: CA Rudramurthy BV on crucial Nifty levels to watch; 2 stocks to buy (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel AVP-Technical Analyst,, says the way the market breadth seems to be improving, supported by global setup, Nifty is expected to head towards 25,500 which is the upper band of the channel and should get a breakout above 25,100 and we should look for a target of 25,500 in June. Strong positional support is placed at 24,200- 24,500. Any dip towards 24,500 to 24,700 should be looked at as a buying opportunity The market has been consolidating in this range of 24,200-25,100 in the last few trading sessions, but we should not forget that we had already seen a 14% rally from the bottom of 21,800. We believe this consolidation makes the markets more healthy and we believe such consolidations are always supported by the next leg of way the market breadth seems to be improving, supported by global setup, we expect Nifty to head towards 25,500 which is again the upper band of the channel and should get a breakout above 25,100 and we should look for a target of 25,500 in June. Strong positional support is placed at 24,200- 24,500. Any dip towards 24,500 to 24,700 should be looked at as a buying if you look in the current context, the rallies are getting bigger and the falls are getting smaller and smaller. So, elongation of rallies supported by shallow retracement indicates the robust price structure. We believe any dip towards 24,500 to 24,600 should be looked at as a buying opportunity for a target of 25, you look at the market in the current context, we believe banking as a sector has been consolidating for the last six weeks after a sharp move. It has been consolidating in this range of 53,000 to 55,000. We expect the Bank Nifty should be in focus in the coming week where you also have RBI policy, so more focus towards the rate sensitive sectors.I believe we should be looking for a target of around 57,000 from the Bank Nifty perspective. Apart from banking, auto and real estate which are part of the interest rate sensitive sector should be in focus. So, banking, auto, real estate, metals are the ones where we remain you look at the market broader, when your broader market is also doing good and if you see the individual sectors, you do not see any weakness in much of any of the sectors. So, maybe, it is the only sector where you have lots of news flow floating in terms of global. That is something where you have a very mixed picture where largecaps look more comfortable compared to the midcaps. IT and pharma seem to be impacted by global news flow, and should be avoided. But otherwise one can be positive on most other sectors going Now: Help us with your stock picks. Any particular stock that is standing out for Shah: Yes, inside the metal, we remain positive on metals where HEG remains to be our top pick. If you look at the metal index, again the index is finding a support at the long-term rising trend line in metal index and also if you look particularly inside the metal, HEG remains to be our top pick where again the news flow also remains to be more positive for HEG because if you look at the most of these global players in graphite electrodes, it seems to be the penetration seems to be moving towards the steel making process which is something big for HEG. We believe HEG is one where the stock seems to be finding support at 200-week moving average supported by falling channel breakout. We expect HEG to head towards 575, 580 keeping a stop loss of 467, inside the metal space we remain to be positive from HEG, ELGI Equipment in capital good space is a company with good sets of numbers and the stock has already seen a good correction of almost 40% from the top, forming a strong base above 200-week EMA and with a falling channel breakout, we expect this stock to head towards Rs 575, 580. ELGI Equipment and HEG remain our top picks.
