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Scientific American
a day ago
- Climate
- Scientific American
Why This Hurricane Season Has Experts on Edge
June 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean—and once again, the season looks like it will be busy. Though it is impossible to tell this far in advance exactly when storms will form and where they might hit, the presence of hurricane-friendly environmental conditions this season—along with the federal government cuts and policy chaos —have experts worried about the accuracy of forecasts and the resulting safety of communities. Scientific American asked several forecasters and hurricane researchers what they were most concerned about this year. Warm oceans may mean a busy hurricane season On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. Seasonal forecasts—including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's— put the odds in favor of having more storms than average this season, which will last until November 30. NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms, meaning those of tropical storm strength (with winds of 39 to 74 miles per hour) or higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes (with winds of more than 74 mph). And among those hurricanes, three to five are expected to reach major hurricane status—meaning they will have winds that will fall within Category 3 (those of 111 to 129 mph) or a stronger category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The expectations of an active season arise from a combination of a favorable atmospheric environment and abundant ocean heat to fuel storms. For one thing, there's no El Niño in place right now to influence winds in a way that tends to shred storms apart, says Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, whose team releases its own seasonal forecast each year. And waters in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm right now, providing ample fuel for the convection that drives tropical cyclones. 'Over 60 percent of the Gulf is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we've seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era,' says Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami. Warm ocean water in these areas can cause storms to rapidly intensify right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare for the onslaught. This is a major concern for Jill Trepanier, a hurricane researcher at Louisiana State University. 'That is just a devastating situation when it occurs,' she says. It's a situation that has played out many times in recent years, including with Hurricanes Beryl and Milton last season. 'The sticky heat of the Gulf is a worrisome trend that's undoubtedly fueling the spate of big hurricane hits along the Gulf Coast over the past decade or so,' Lowry says. 'This is consistent with recent research that suggests the Gulf has seen a significant increase over the past 42 years in the number of days where it can support high-end hurricanes.' Because of that abundant hurricane fuel, 'I would not be surprised if we see early-season activity well ahead of the peak' of activity in September, says Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia. Several experts noted that this year's conditions have some slight differences from the most recent seasons. For one, 'the waters of the deep tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean—often a bellwether for overall hurricane season activity—are the coolest we've seen them to start a hurricane season since 2021,' Lowry says. But, he adds, they are 'still plenty warm ... and forecast to remain so, which should favor above-average activity.' Though the overall message is that this will be a busier-than-normal season, it is not predicted to be quite as busy as those of the past few years. Klotzbach is worried that could lead to complacency. 'My biggest concern is that, because the seasonal forecasts are a bit less aggressive than last year..., people may tend to let their guard down,' he says. Communities are still recovering Inevitably, each time a new hurricane season begins, some communities are still reeling from storms from the previous year—and often even further back in time. This year 'places in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still recovering from Helene, Milton and Debby,' Shepherd says, citing three of the worst storms of the 2024 season. A National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report released last year warned that the Gulf Coast in particular risked being in 'perpetual disaster recovery' mode. The report noted that seven hurricanes struck the region in 2020 and 2021 alone. It's entirely possible that some of the communities pummeled in recent years could face hurricane peril again this year. 'With projections of average to above-average activity, all it takes is one storm to compound an already bad situation for many people,' Marshall says. NWS and FEMA cuts Piled atop these concerns is the situation within the federal government, with substantial budget and staffing cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 'It remains to be seen what the impacts of reduced staffing across relevant NOAA offices and agencies will be,' says Brian McNoldy, a tropical storm researcher at the University of Miami. 'But any loss of expertise, data collection capabilities and around-the-clock monitoring is troubling during critical, high-impact situations.' Though the National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors the development of tropical storms and hurricanes and produces the main forecasts, local NWS offices still play a crucial role in providing more localized warnings about storm surge, flooding and winds. Many offices in hurricane-prone areas are understaffed, says Jeff Masters, a writer at Yale Climate Connections and a former Hurricane Hunter at NOAA. Among those, the NWS's Houston and Miami offices are suffering the largest staff shortages. The NWS has asked staff from other offices to move into some of these open slots. Lowry and Masters also point out that the cuts have reduced the number of weather balloons launches. Balloon data are crucial for understanding the larger atmospheric patterns that determine where a hurricane will go—and who might need to evacuate or take other precautions. There is one positive note: 'I was very pleased to see the Hurricane Hunters reinstated,' Trepanier says, referring to three of the meteorologists who fly specialized, equipment-laden planes directly into storms to gather data that significantly improve forecasts. 'Though it isn't enough to offset the concern, it is a move in a good direction.' James Franklin, former chief of the NHC's Hurricane Specialist Unit, says he is concerned about trainings for emergency managers that were canceled earlier this year Their absence could leave areas less prepared and less able to know what decisions to make based on forecasts. 'When training has to be cut down…, it just makes those kinds of mistakes on the emergency management side more likely to occur,' he says. Finally, another big worry is simply the government's ability to respond with help for victims when a storm hits. Masters' biggest worry is that FEMA won't 'be capable of managing a major disaster right now.' Reports by CNN and other news outlets have cited internal FEMA memos that report the loss of 30 percent of full-time staff. 'I wrote the plan FEMA uses to respond to hurricanes,' says Lowry, a former employee of both the NHC and FEMA, 'and it's hard to imagine the agency will be able to meet its mission-critical functions this season with such depleted staffing and without a fully revised plan.'
Axios
a day ago
- Climate
- Axios
These names could be remembered for all the wrong reasons
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season starts Sunday, and there's a new list of storm names. Why it matters: A single name on this list could define the season if it's tied to a major disaster. The big picture: The World Meteorological Organization picks the names, which are based on "their familiarity to people" in the region. The lists are reused every six years, with this batch last used in 2019. Dexter is a new addition this year, replacing Dorian, which was retired after the 2019 storm that devastated the Bahamas. Systems are named when they strengthen to at least a tropical storm. The names are: Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy Between the lines: If all the names are used, WMO uses a supplemental list. It previously used the Greek alphabet, but they ended that practice after confusion during the 2020 season. Names are retired if they are associated with a particularly deadly or costly storm. For instance, the names Beryl, Milton and Helene were retired after the 2024 hurricane season. Flashback: Storms weren't named until 1953. Before then, they were tracked by the year and order they occurred that year, according to NOAA. At first, only female names were used. In 1979, male names were added to the mix for storms in the Atlantic basin. What's next: Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through Nov. 30, but storms can form any time.
Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Entertainment
- Miami Herald
44 Percent: Miami Gardens business owner, Best of the Best, Third Horizon Film Festival
The pandemic ushered in a lot of sorrow: Some of us saw loved ones die, others saw the loss of jobs, and some (I'd venture many of us) are still recovering from the aftermath of it. But some, like Syerra Donaldson, were able to reinvent themselves during lockdown. She managed to turn her growing cooking hobby into a thriving catering business. Donaldson's graciousness and humility are evident as she tells the story of her path to business owner and Food Network star to Miami Herald reporter Michael Butler. But what impressed me most was the beautiful community that surrounded and uplifted her on her journey. It's what we all need when it comes to forging our own paths, and I'm hoping as the summer comes we continue to see more of that love spread around. INSIDE THE 305: How a Miami Gardens therapist turned her pandemic hobby into a catering business During the pandemic, some people parlayed their hobbies into a full-fledged business. Syerra Donaldson was no exception. The Miami Gardens therapist is the proud owner of catering company, EasyCookinWithSy, and has seen significant success with a win on the Food Network's 'Supermarket Stakeout' and placing third in the quarter finals of celebrity chef Carla Hall's Favorite Chef contest, Minority Business reporter Michael Butler reported. 'The competition was just there to teach me personal development,' Donaldson said. 'In the beginning I wasn't scared, but I was timid. Now my confidence is higher.' Take a look at the scene at Best of the Best, Miami's celebration of Jamaican music Following a two-year hiatus, Caribbean music festival Best of the Best returned to Miami's Bayfront Park, featuring acts such as Buju Banton, Marcia Griffiths and Beres Hammond, Wayne Wonder and Skinny Fabulous. Miami Herald Haiti correspondent Jacqueline Charles and photographer Sam Navarro shared the sights and songs of the festival, now in its 19th year. OUTSIDE THE 305: After last year's devastating hurricane season, Caribbean nations brace themselves Last year Hurricane Beryl slammed into the Lesser Antilles and Jamaica during another deadly hurricane season. This year Caribbean nations are preparing for what should be another active hurricane season. As Charles reported: Between 17 and 19 named storms are being predicted for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season, according to the Colorado State University early forecast delivered in April and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology. The latter is forecasting that nine of 19 named storms are anticipated to become hurricanes, four of them major, once the season starts on June 1. 'Though these forecasts come with some uncertainty, the region must remain vigilant and prepared, as it only takes one storm to cause a significant impact. The likelihood of storms making landfall along the U.S. coastline and within the Caribbean remains high, so we must take every necessary step to ensure the safety of our communities,' said Elizabeth Riley, the executive director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, CDEMA. Judge delays Miami trial of five men accused of plotting assassination of Haiti's president The trial of five men accused of plotting the assassination of Haiti's president Jovenel Moïse has been pushed back to March 2026. Moïse was killed at his home outside Port-au-Prince in July 2021. As Charles and fellow reporter Jay Weaver wrote: U.S. District Judge Jacqueline Becerra said at a recent hearing that she was not happy about delaying the federal trial, which was originally set for March and then postponed until September of this year. Becerra said she had no choice but to push it back again because of the massive volume of evidence, including more than 2.5 million text messages, emails and other records, that federal prosecutors are still turning over to the defense lawyers — a basic discovery issue that has turned into a sore point for the judge. Harvard agrees to relinquish early photos of enslaved people, ending a legal battle Photographs of enslaved people will be given to the International African American Museum in South Carolina, following a lengthy legal battle. The photos, which are more than 175 years old, had been housed at Harvard's Peabody Museum of Archaeology and Ethnology, and are returning to the state where the photographs were taken. Per the Associated Press: The photos of the subjects identified by Tamara Lanier as her great-great-great-grandfather Renty, whom she calls 'Papa Renty,' and his daughter Delia will be transferred from the Peabody Museum of Archaeology and Ethnology to the International African American Museum in South Carolina, the state where they were enslaved in 1850 when the photos were taken, a lawyer for Lanier said Wednesday. The settlement ends a 15-year battle between Lanier and the university to release the 19th-century daguerreotypes, a precursor to modern-day photographs. Lanier's attorney Joshua Koskoff told The Associated Press that the resolution is an 'unprecedented' victory for descendants of those enslaved in the U.S. and praised his client's yearslong determination in pursuing justice for the people she had identified as her ancestors. HIGH CULTURE: Third Horizon Film Festival returns Now in its eighth year, the Third Horizon Film Festival returns to Miami highlighting filmmaking from the Caribbean diaspora. Festivities kick off tonight at the PAMM with 'Koutkekout (At All Kosts)' a documentary set in Haiti that centers on artists holding their own festival as the country faces continued turmoil. An opening reception will follow the screening. Tickets for tonight range from free for children to $18 for adults, tickets for screenings at the Koubek Center Price range from $8 to $15, and festival passes range from $60 to $500.
Newsweek
2 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Map Shows Eight States Under Flood Warnings Amid Thunderstorms
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Weather Service (NWS) issued flood warnings and advisories across eight southern U.S. states on Thursday as severe thunderstorms brought heavy rain and raised the risk of rapid flooding. Official alerts listed Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina as areas currently under a range of flood-related warnings. Why It Matters This wave of flood warnings followed earlier destructive thunderstorms that impacted the South, resulting in widespread property damage, power outages, and at least one death. Those storms are predicted to continue into Friday, with heavy rain and thunderstorms likely from Texas into the southeast. What To Know The NWS has issued flood advisories and warnings for rivers across multiple states as days of heavy rainfall mean they are more likely to break their banks and flood. Vehicles sit in floodwater during Hurricane Beryl on July 8, 2024, in Houston, Texas. Vehicles sit in floodwater during Hurricane Beryl on July 8, 2024, in Houston, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Motorists are advised not to attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars through flooded areas, while pedestrians are warned not to walk alongside rivers in flood warning zones. Lowland areas and farms may also be affected, according to the NWS alert. Officials warned that persistent rainfall and the threat of more thunderstorms could lead to additional flooding in urban centers and rural zones alike. In addition to floods, the thunderstorms are bringing other hazards to the region as well, including "large to very large hail," damaging wind gusts, and tornados, according to a forecast from the NWS. Flooding could remain a concern for several states currently dealing with the excessive rainfall. According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center's six- to 10-day precipitation outlook, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas have a slight chance of above-normal precipitation. Meanwhile, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana are expecting normal precipitation for this time of year during the same period, whereas South Carolina has a chance of below-normal precipitation. What People Are Saying NWS meteorologist Matt Bishop, who works at the Fort Worth office, told Newsweek: "May is definitely one of our more active times of year. In fact, March, April, and May are typically fairly active as far as thunderstorms go, not just here but all throughout the Plains and southern part of the U.S. We've gotten enough rain here recently to where it has caused some river flooding." Bishop added:"Flooding is another one of those hazards that comes along with the active thunderstorm season we have." Most NWS flood warnings said: "Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles." What Happens Next The storms are expected to continue through until the weekend. Rivers can take time to recede, so most flood warnings are in place "until further notice."
San Francisco Chronicle
2 days ago
- Climate
- San Francisco Chronicle
Tropical Storm Alvin forms in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of western Mexico
MIAMI (AP) — A weather system swirling off the coast of western Mexico has developed into the first tropical storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, forecasters said Thursday. Tropical Storm Alvin was located about 670 miles (1,080 kilometers) south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said. Maximum sustained winds were clocked at 40 mph (65 kph). It was moving northwest at 10 mph (17 kph). There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect Thursday morning, the hurricane center said. Alvin was expected to strengthen late Thursday, then weaken late Friday. The eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs May 15 to Nov. 30. The Atlantic hurricane season begins Sunday and also stretches through the end of November, and forecasters are expecting yet another unusually busy Atlantic season. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as 2024, the third-costliest season on record as it spawned killer storms Beryl, Helene and Milton.
