Latest news with #Biden
The Hill
an hour ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Democrats want an autopsy report on the 2024 election? Here's a free reality check.
As if 2025 has not been brutal enough, the Democratic National Committee has publicly announced it will conduct an ' autopsy ' on its failed 2024 presidential campaign. But cagily, the DNC has decided to limit the discussion, punctiliously avoiding Harris-Walz campaign deficiencies and former President Joe Biden's infirmities. That's like performing John F. Kennedy's autopsy and only examining his feet. Just as athlete's foot didn't kill Kennedy, botched independent expenditures did not sink Kamala Harris. It is laughable that the DNC thinks it can ring-fence any self-examination away from the fundamental problems facing Democrats. But just like the Democratic Party as a whole, the DNC is too dependent on soothing its squabbling factions and defending its sacred shibboleths to conduct any honest assessment. So here is a free autopsy for the Democrats. It all starts with Biden. The over-the-top hagiography spun by the media elites of Biden was always absurd. The fact is, Biden was only the Democrat just palatable enough for most voters in 2020. Tongue-tied for the last four decades and unmoored to principle, Biden's most salient characteristic was his overweening ambition. Then, intoxicated with power, the addled and aged Biden failed to leave when his time was up. That was clearly the Democrats' most glaring issue in 2024. Jake Tapper and the New York/Washington media elites might have been fooled by the White House, but the voters were not. As early as January 2022, just one year after his inauguration, a majority of Democrats did not want Biden to run again, with only 32 percent saying the incumbent president should be on the 2024 ballot. And that poll was not the end of it. Between then and Biden's ignominious departure roughly 30 months later, he faced an unrelenting stream of bad polls and bad news. From 2022 onwards, when YouGov asked voters if Biden should run in 2024, the public fired back an overwhelming 'No!' In their Sept. 19, 2022, benchmark, YouGov found 59 percent of voters rejecting a 2024 Biden run against a mere 19 percent in favor. An overwhelming 64 percent of independents were opposed, as well as majorities in all age and income demographics, men and women. Month after month, majorities said they didn't want Biden to run again. Even when Trump's candidacy became more real and Democratic voters began to rally around Biden, his numbers remained weak. In January 2024, YouGov found voters opposed to Biden running at 58 percent — a number propped up by relatively supportive Democrats. Independents opposed Biden running again by a 55-point margin. The MSNBC gang may have thought Biden was as sharp as ever, but the American public was not deceived. In that same January 2024 poll, 55 percent thought Biden's age 'severely' affected his ability to serve, including 59 percent of independents. Additionally, 73 percent of independents thought Biden was a very weak or somewhat weak leader. So in short, the American public was practically screaming for Biden to quit. The signs were there the whole time. Maybe Democrats could have still won without Biden, had they connected on issues the public cared about. But once again, they ignored voters. Inflation was by far the top issue. In a September 2022 YouGov poll, inflation became the lead issue, with 20 percent of the public and 23 percent of independents naming it their top issue, nearly 10 points ahead of any other. By August 2024, inflation had become even bigger, with 24 percent naming it the top issue (26 percent of independents) and 96 percent of all voters calling it 'very' or 'somewhat' important — far above any other issue. Biden, Harris and the Democrats did nothing but point fingers, and it didn't work. In that same poll, Biden (and by extension, his vice president) had a minus-25 point net approval on his handling of inflation, with independents net-negative by 41 points. Biden, Harris and the D.C. Democrats catered mostly to their own base. Front and center from a policy perspective were abortion and climate change — top issues for Democrats and liberals but not really for anybody else. In issue importance, abortion and climate change ran a mere 1 point behind inflation among Democratic voters, while for liberals climate change was the top issue and abortion tied with inflation. But for independents, abortion and climate change ran 18 points and 19 points behind inflation, respectively. And for Republicans, those issues weren't even on the radar. Inflation is a structural problem for the progressive left. They can't get enough of it. Going back to the days of William Jennings Bryan, easy money has been a hallmark of leftist politics. Bryan was the Bernie Sanders of his day — charismatic, wildly popular with the left and a spectacular loser. For Democrats, all the policy options to fight inflation were closed off by their hardcore liberal base. Prices will fall when you reduce fiscal stimulus and promote efficiency — that translates to lower spending and less regulation. Instead, Biden unleashed an avalanche of spending and a tsunami of rules and regulations. This brings us to the most fundamental problem for the Democratic Party and its various squawking factions: They live in a world of illogic, delusion and denial. The public was telling them what they wanted for more than two years, but Biden, his political and media sycophants, and the D.C. Democrats ignored them. The inability and unwillingness of Team Biden, the Democratic establishment and the New York-Washington media elites to appreciate voters' antipathy toward a Biden reelection is a spectacular failure, bordering on pathological. As long as Democrats only cater to their base — a base not at all in sync with the issue concerns of the majority — they will struggle to win. Building out a better social media infrastructure is pointless if you're selling issues the public won't buy. Having a 'man' strategy won't work if you only talk about abortion, climate change and privilege. For the last nine years, the Democratic Party has been a mass of squabbling factions only unified in their hatred of Trump. They have at most two more elections (2026 and 2028) to run as the 'not Trump' party. If they don't get their act together, the 2029 autopsy might be their last.
CNBC
an hour ago
- Business
- CNBC
Mike Khouw on a hedging strategy with the market at record highs and some threats emerging
Slightly over a year ago, CNN hosted a debate between then-President Joe Biden and Former (and current) President Donald Trump. President Biden's approval rating heading into the debate was already low. The Pew Research Center's survey in April of 2024 showed that the number of U.S. adults who disapproved of his performance as President vastly outnumbered those who approved. Times/Siena polls suggested Trump led Biden by about 3% among likely voters ahead of the debate, and that lead widened to 6% after Biden's poor peformance and ultimately, he bowed to pressure from his own party to withdraw from the race. It was at this point, when the prospect of Trump returning to the White House went from possibility to probability, that economists and investors really began to weigh in on the implications of "Trumponomics" 2.0. Much of what was published at the time expressed significant concerns about some of his proposals, so much so that on July 11th, 2024, the Economist published an opinion piece entitled, "Trumponomics would not be as bad as most expect." The authors taking a fairly balanced view said, "Mr. Trump and his advisers have many rotten ideas. They also have some decent ones." This week marked two milestones. It has been six months since Mr. Trump was once again sworn in as president of the United States, and the S & P 500 just hit another all-time high. We are also kicking off the first earnings season, where publicly traded companies will report a full quarter's worth of operating results under the new administration. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 , 1 year During this period, the markets experienced historic volatility induced by policy proposals. However, did the chaos we observed in stock prices reflect chaos in corporate operating results? Early indications from both economic data and the ~10% of the Russell 3000 that have reported so far since July 1st are actually pretty good. A higher percentage of companies that have reported since July 1st of this year gave a positive revenue surprise, a smaller percentage reported a negative earnings surprise, the percentage above consensus for both revenues and earnings is higher this year, and earnings have averaged 10.9% growth YoY, well above long-term growth rates. So was The Economist right? Here are some points to consider. While tariff threats have been substantial, we still don't know where exactly that will land. The government has benefited from additional tariff revenue, and some price increases are being seen. One potential reason revenues and earnings could rise is that businesses are pricing products in anticipation of tariffs, but due to delays, the impact has not yet been fully felt. Economists warned of another inflationary impact. Cracking down on illegal immigration would increase labor costs. So far, this too does not appear to be creating huge disruptions, but while border crossings have slowed to a trickle, deportations, while causing a bit of a political firestorm in some cities, have a real impact that is muted because, by its own reckoning, the White House claims 100,000 deportations since January 20th. At that pace, the administration won't be able to deport even 10% of those who entered the country illegally under Biden, and because they are (supposedly) focusing on criminals, those deportations are not likely to impact wages paid at legitimate industries (yet). While the White House has been highly critical of Fed rate policy generally and Chairman Jerome Powell specifically, and the next appointee is likely to be more aligned with Trump's rate wishes, FOMC rate policy is still by committee. History has not been kind to political interference in central banking activities, and it's likely that even if the new chairman adopts a more dovish stance, the FOMC will remember the mistakes the Fed made during the Arthur Burns era. If they do vote to cut rates, I believe it will be based on inflation and employment data, not White House rhetoric. Deficits remain a complete disaster. Where in the past the predominant parties would at least pay lip service by either demanding higher taxes or lower spending, that appears to be out the window in DC these days. Valuations in several sectors are well above long-term averages relative to the market and to their own sector history. The most notable exception is healthcare. Time to hedge? Any or all of these factors could reemerge as a threat to equities, and while there are still several weeks until Labor Day, it's worth remembering that September and October are months that have seen significant volatility in past years. With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) just over 15 as I write this, below the 10-year average of 18.6 and in the 39th percentile, now might be a good time to consider adding some hedges, either to high-flying constituents of one's portfolio via put spreads or, more generally, by purchasing some relatively low cost put spreads on an equity market proxy, such as SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). For example, the Sep 30th, month-ending 630/600 put spread, which expires in 67 days costs less than 1% of the underlying. DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . 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Black America Web
an hour ago
- Business
- Black America Web
Student Loan Forgiveness Paused for IBR Borrowers
Source: Deepak Sethi / Getty Millions of student loan borrowers enrolled in a popular repayment plan are now facing uncertainty, as the U.S. Department of Education has temporarily halted loan forgiveness under its Income-Based Repayment (IBR) program. Income-driven repayment plans like IBR aim to ease financial pressure by capping monthly loan payments based on a borrower's income and family size. After 20 years of qualifying payments, borrowers become eligible for loan forgiveness. At the end of 2024, nearly 40% of the 33 million Americans repaying student loans were enrolled in one of the Education Department's four IDR plans, according to federal data. But legal challenges have disrupted all four plans. Three of them, the SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) plan, Income-Contingent Repayment (ICR), and Pay As You Earn (PAYE) were previously blocked by court rulings. And now, the IBR plan has also been affected. As of this week, forgiveness for approximately 2 million borrowers enrolled in IBR has been paused. The Department of Education confirmed the pause Tuesday, citing ongoing court injunctions related to lawsuits against the Biden administration's SAVE plan. 'The Department has temporarily paused discharges for IBR borrowers in order to comply with ongoing court injunctions regarding the Biden Administration's illegal attempts at student loan forgiveness,' said Education Department deputy press secretary Ellen Keast in a statement to CBS MoneyWatch. The lawsuits stem from the Biden administration's implementation of the SAVE plan — a sweeping repayment initiative designed to fix flaws in existing IDR programs. SAVE became highly popular, enrolling nearly 8 million borrowers by the end of 2024. Because the SAVE plan included provisions allowing borrowers to count forbearances and certain non-payments toward loan forgiveness, it also affected forgiveness eligibility in the IBR plan. As a result, the Education Department is now recalculating eligible payment counts and has paused all IBR loan discharges until the process is complete. The Education Department has not provided a specific timeline for when loan forgiveness under the IBR plan will resume. However, Keast said discharges will restart 'as soon as the Department is able to establish the correct payment count.' Are Other IDR Plans Affected? Yes. Forgiveness under the SAVE, ICR, and PAYE plans remains blocked by court decisions that questioned whether the Education Department had the legal authority to offer widespread forgiveness under those programs. However, the IBR plan, created under a different legal authority, is still considered valid, though it is now on pause due to the SAVE plan's entanglement. What Should Borrowers Do? Borrowers enrolled in IBR are encouraged to continue making their monthly payments. Even if their forgiveness is delayed, those who are already eligible will be refunded for any overpayments once discharges resume. 'For any borrower that makes a payment after the date of borrower eligibility, the Department will refund overpayments,' Keast said. Borrowers may also request forbearance through their loan servicer, though doing so may result in interest continuing to accrue on their remaining balance. Income-Based Repayment Forgiveness Delayed; What Borrowers Need to Know was originally published on
New York Post
an hour ago
- Business
- New York Post
Biden sells memoir for millions less than Obamas, Bill Clinton in embarrassing blow
Former President Biden has sold his presidential memoir for a $10 million advance – far less than the lucrative deals won by the Obamas and Bill Clinton, according to a report. Biden, 82, made a deal with Hachette Book Group for an advance of around $10 million, people familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal. The book's publisher, Hachette's Little, Brown & Co., has not yet set a publication date. 3 President Biden delivers his farewell address to the nation from the Oval Office in January. via REUTERS Former President Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama, meanwhile, sold the rights to their memoirs to Penguin Random House for a record-breaking $60 million in 2017. Alfred A. Knopf, which is owned by Penguin Random House's parent firm Bertelsmann, paid $15 million for former President Bill Clinton's 2004 memoir 'My Life.' President Trump did not publish a presidential memoir after his first term. At an event earlier this month, Biden said he was 'working my tail off' to write a memoir. Biden was represented by Creative Artists Agency, which sold Hachette worldwide rights for the book. The agency also represented Biden for his 2017 memoir 'Promise Me, Dad: A Year of Hope, Hardship and Purpose,' which chronicled his last year with his oldest son, Beau, who died from brain cancer in 2015. 3 Barack Obama's memoir 'A Promised Land.' AP Hachette and CAA did not immediately respond to The Post's requests for comment. In May, a spokesperson for Biden announced that the former president has an 'aggressive' form of prostate cancer, though it 'appears to be hormone-sensitive, which allows for effective management.' It's likely that his health could impact the timeline of his memoir's release. Biden has hinted that the memoir will cover his four years as president. The longtime politician also served eight years as vice president during the Obama administration. He dropped out of the presidential race in late July last year after a disastrous debate performance and freezing episode ramped up accusations that he was mentally unfit to serve. 3 Bill Clinton's memoir 'My Life.' AP Biden's book is set to follow the best-sold presidential memoirs in history. Within its first 24 hours, Barack's memoir 'A Promised Land' sold 890,000 copies in the US and Canada, surpassing Michelle's 'Becoming' at 725,000 first-day copies and Bill Clinton's 'My Life' at 400,000. Just one month after its release in 2020, sales of Barack's memoir had surpassed 3.3 million copies – close to the then-lifetime total of Clinton's and George W. Bush's, at 3.5 million and 4 million copies respectively.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Global Economies Show Resilience Despite Tariff Fears, Surveys Show
Large economies in Europe and Asia continued to show resilience in the face of high levels of uncertainty about the future of trade and international relations, although export orders weakened. The eurozone's composite purchasing managers' index—a measure of activity across the private sector—edged up to 51.0 in July from 50.8 in June. The rise marked the fastest rate of business growth in nearly a year as demand stabilized, and beat expectations of a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Biden Sells Memoir for Roughly $10 Million, Less Than Obama and Clinton The West's Insatiable Demand for Missiles Boosting U.S. Weapons Makers Tesla Profit Falls, Hurt by Plunging EV Sales Why Amazon Wants an AI Bracelet That Records Everything You Say Google Revenue Soars on AI Boom, and Investors Eye Spending Surge Separate surveys for the Japanese and Australian economies pointed to growth despite declines in new export orders received by factories. In contrast, Indian factories reported a continued expansion in overseas orders, which supported rapid economic growth. Global economic output was volatile in the first half of the year, largely due to swings in the U.S. While the world's largest economy contracted in the first three months of the year as businesses built stocks ahead of anticipated increases in tariffs, economists estimate that it rebounded strongly in the second quarter. A reversal of that pattern is likely for those economies that fed the build-up in U.S. inventories, including the eurozone. While total new business in the eurozone stabilized, new export orders declined modestly. In the U.K., goods producers widely reported a negative hit in the wake of U.S. tariff announcements, with shipments delayed, investment decisions postponed and rising competition in international markets. Despite the slow downward trend for exports, much of survey data shows the tariff threat hasn't impacted trade as much as feared when President Trump announced many potential levies in early April. In the eurozone, incoming data is still influenced by U.S. firms stockpiling European goods to frontload ahead of tariffs, but the PMI surveys offer a better sense that the economy is performing 'decently enough', ING economist Carsten Brzeski said in a note to clients. Business growth in the services sector reached a six-month high, the survey said, particularly encouraging given it makes up the largest part of the eurozone economy, Brzeski noted. The renewed fiscal impulse from countries such as Germany, alongside robust stock-market rises in the months since has provided renewed strength in the economy. 'If there's anything good out of the trade shock, it's that there are signs that Europe is waking up,' Swiss Re Chief Economist Jerome Jean Haegeli said. The positive impact of new capital expenditure such as on defense will be structurally more meaningful in Europe than the negative hit from the shock of trade tariffs, he added. The European Union is closing in on an outline trade agreement with the Trump administration for tariffs of 15% on most exports, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. The European Central Bank on Thursday kept its key interest rate on hold, and in its accompanying statement said the eurozone's economy has so far proven resilient in a challenging global environment. 'At the same time, the environment remains exceptionally uncertain, especially because of trade disputes,' it warned. Write to Ed Frankl at and Paul Hannon at Home Prices Hit Record High in June, Dragging Down Sales The Secret to Getting Promoted Quickly at a New Job Lawmakers Subpoena JPMorgan and BofA Over IPO of Chinese Battery Giant NBCU Is Exploring Launching a Sports Cable Network Walmart Taps Instacart Executive to Lead Its AI Ambitions Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
