Latest news with #Bitwise
Crypto Insight
2 days ago
- Business
- Crypto Insight
Bitcoin ‘up year' is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead: Bitwise
Bitcoin's price could see significant upside in 2026, bucking the traditional four-year market cycle, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan. The prediction comes as other analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will stray from its historical pattern or follow the traditional halving cycle and peak in the coming months. Bitcoin may be in for a 'good few years,' says Hougan 'I bet 2026 is an up year,' Hougan said in an X video on Friday. 'I broadly think we're in for a good few years,' Hougan added. Hougan said the four-year halving cycle 'is dead' for several reasons, including the Bitcoin halving becoming 'half as important' every four years, and the interest rate cycle being positive for crypto. Since April, US President Donald Trump has been publicly pressuring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, a potentially bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, as lower rates make traditional assets like bonds and term deposits less appealing to investors. Hougan also said the chances of significant price pullbacks have decreased as the industry gains more clarity on regulations. 'Blow-up risk is attenuated, due to improving regulation and the institutionalization of the space,' Hougan said. He said that given the ongoing regulatory process and the early stage of institutional adoption, Bitcoin likely has more upside in this cycle than historical trends suggests: 'The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic 'four-year cycle' forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year.' Hougan said the most significant 'cyclical-style risk' for Bitcoin is the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies. 'Bears watching and is significant,' Hougan said. Asset manager VanEck recently echoed the same concern, warning that firms accumulating Bitcoin by issuing new stock or taking on debt are particularly vulnerable. VanEck said these companies might be overextended if Bitcoin's price falls sharply. Bitcoin more likely to see a 'sustained steady boom' However, Hougan forecasted that Bitcoin's price rally will be steady rather than aggressive in the short term. 'I think it's more 'sustained steady boom' than super-cycle,' he said. 'I could be wrong, and I'm certain there will be significant volatility,' he added. It comes only days after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory 'is dead.' 'My predictions were based on it — buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds,' Ju said. 'Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought,' Ju added. However, not everyone says the pattern has changed. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently warned that Bitcoin may only have a few months of price expansion left in the cycle, especially if it follows the same historical pattern from 2020. Rekt explained that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market will likely peak in October, which is 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. Source:
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How Bitcoin's boom-bust cycles are changing
Bitcoin price has long followed a familiar rhythm: every four years, a halving slashes the new supply of coins, setting off a bull run. Then, when the price gets too frothy and sentiment a pinch too euphoric, traders take profit and the price nosedives into a bear market. That playbook is now dead, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise. But not everyone agrees with him. 'The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker,' Hougan said on X on Friday. 'The halving is half as important every four years, the interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, and blow-up risk has attenuated.' For Hougan, the structural forces behind Bitcoin's classic boom-and-bust cycles — like the halving's impact on supply — are weakening. Meanwhile, a new macro and regulatory environment is working in Bitcoin's favour. The ETF boom The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024 kicked off a multi-year inflow trend that could reshape the entire asset class, said Hogan. And institutions are only just beginning to pile in. Pension funds, endowments, and national wealth platforms are still onboarding. At the same time, regulation is gaining clarity, Wall Street is laying infrastructure, and billions in capital are entering the space — fuelled by legislative breakthroughs like the Genius Act passed earlier this month. And that's not to mention the frothy Bitcoin treasuries, which have been on a shopping spree like none other. According to in the past 30 days, 22 public companies have joined the 138 that already held Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The total is now 160 and counting. 'The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic 'four-year cycle' forces,' said Hougan, 'and they don't sync with halving cycles.' New territory But some disagree. 'I think the exact opposite is true,' Nick Hansen, CEO of Bitcoin mining outlet Luxor, told DL News. 'When we're in the depths of a bear market, the treasury companies are not going to operate like die-hard bitcoiners that continue to stack bitcoin.' If Bitcoin suffers a 50% drawdown, treasury companies will be hard pressed to find capital like they do today, explained Hansen. They also have operational costs, and could face shareholder pressure to liquidate their holdings if their shares plummet alongside the Bitcoin they hold. And that's not to mention the potential for Bitcoin ETF holders to start selling, which 'would further decimate the price,' he said. The muted loop Some agree with Hougan, but take a more tempered approach. 'I'm somebody who thinks it's intact, but it's going to be muted,' James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence said on the Kyle Chasse podcast on July 24. 'If you think of it like a rollercoaster, the amplitude won't be as bad.' The hallmark boom-and-bust swings — like Bitcoin's 80% crash in 2018, or its post-all-time-high dive in 2022 — are now being tempered by a maturing investor base, a growing roster of institutional allocators, and a more permanent class of buyers. Indeed, traditional volatility cycles, driven by speculative hype and harsh corrections, are being dampened by new forms of capital. 'Institutions are coming in, more stable money, more forced buyers like Bitcoin treasuries,' he said. 'Instead of 80% drawdowns, maybe we see 50%.' One open tap? Financial advisors buying Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Bitcoin ETFs buyers are relentless, even in the face of geopolitical tension. These now hold 1.2 million Bitcoin worth about $147 billion, according to a Dune Analytics dashboard. Seyffart explained that these wealth managers make up the bulk of spot ETF buyers, and have been allocating up to 5% of client portfolios. But those weights can balloon fast. What happens when Bitcoin's price rises and their allocations swell to 10%? 'Maybe they're not ready for that,' he said. 'They're going to sell.' Supercycle theory Talk of Bitcoin escaping its boom-and-bust fate isn't entirely new. In fact, former Kraken executive and long-time Bitcoiner Dan Held has been championing a 'super cycle' thesis since 2020. That's the idea that Bitcoin would eventually break free from its four-year halving rhythm and enter a prolonged, parabolic expansion driven by unprecedented global demand. Held argued that a unique mix of macro conditions — institutional interest, rampant money printing, global instability, and rising distrust in fiat — would combine to create a once-in-a-generation bull run with no dramatic bust on the other side. 'Never before has Bitcoin had so many tailwinds at once,' Held wrote at the time. 'This cycle could be the one that breaks the pattern.' But that theory hasn't fully materialised. Bitcoin peaked in late 2021, then collapsed more than 75% during the 2022 bear market, mirroring previous cycles almost exactly. Still, even believers in the four-year cycle reckon the Bitcoin economy is evolving. Fast. 'The funnel for institutional capital is completely full right now with more trying to get in,' Hansen told DL News. 'Where we go from here is new territory, for sure.' Pedro Solimano is DL News' Buenos Aires-based markets correspondent. Got at a tip? Email him atpsolimano@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
SEC Stays Bitwise Crypto ETF Launch Despite Approval
The Securities and Exchange Commission placed a stay on the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund conversion to an exchange-traded fund despite approving the fund Tuesday, preventing the crypto product from launching until further notice. The stay creates uncertainty around when the second diversified crypto ETF will reach U.S. markets, with the delay mirroring actions the SEC took against Grayscale Investment Trust's Digital Large Cap Fund earlier this month. Read More: SEC Delays Grayscale Crypto ETF Launch Despite Approval The Bitwise fund tracks the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index and holds Bitcoin at a 78.7% weighting, followed by Ethereum at 11.1%, according to Bitwise. The fund manages $1.4 billion in assets across 10 crypto holdings with a 2.5% expense ratio. Regulatory Framework Questions The SEC granted accelerated approval for the Bitwise fund to convert to an ETF trading on NYSE Arca, according to the filing. However, Assistant Secretary Sherry Haywood notified the exchange in a separate letter that the Commission will review the delegated action, automatically triggering a stay under Rule 431 of the Commission's Rules of Practice. The fund currently trades over-the-counter under the ticker BITW and has operated as a trust since November 2017, according to Bitwise. Public quotation began in December 2020 through the OTCQX market. Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, the fund holds smaller positions in XRP at 5%, Solana at 3% and Cardano at 0.8%, according to the fact sheet. Additional holdings include SUI at 0.4%, Chainlink at 0.3%, Avalanche at 0.3%, Litecoin at 0.2% and Polkadot at 0.2%. The approval order shows the fund must maintain at least 85% of its holdings in commodities that underlie Commission-approved exchange-traded products, with no more than 15% in other assets, according to the SEC filing. This structure mirrors requirements imposed on other crypto ETF approvals. The stay prevents trading until the SEC orders otherwise, according to the letter from Haywood. The Office of the Secretary will notify the exchange of any action taken by the agency. The delay follows a similar pattern to Grayscale's Digital Large Cap Fund, which received approval and an immediate stay earlier this month. That fund tracks the CoinDesk 5 Index and holds $774.8 million in assets under | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
$332 Million To Minus $85 Million: Why Are Ethereum ETFs Suddenly More Popular Than Bitcoin ETFs?
Ethereum ETFs attracted $332.18 million in net inflows on July 23, marking their fourteenth straight day of positive flows and signaling an intensifying institutional rotation from Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) into Ether (CRYPTO: ETH). What Happened: BlackRock's (NASDAQ:ETHA) led the charge with a $324.63 million single-day net inflow, contributing to a cumulative $8.9 billion since launch. In contrast, Bitcoin spot ETFs posted net outflows of $85.9 million, extending a three-day streak of profit-taking. According to data from SoSoValue, Ethereum ETF net assets now stand at $19.6 billion, roughly 4.57% of the asset's market capitalization. This includes inflows from major sponsors such as Grayscale, Fidelity, VanEck, and Bitwise. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's (NASDAQ:IBIT) and Fidelity's (BATS:FBTC), recorded a cumulative $54.4 billion in net inflows, but recent sessions have seen sentiment cool. Also Read: What Experts Are Saying: Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, says this inflow streak into Ethereum reflects "growing confidence in Ethereum's utility beyond just a store of value." He noted over $2.1 billion in weekly inflows and a record $726 million surge on July 16, framing the shift as tactical rebalancing from Bitcoin, which recently saw 20% monthly gains, to Ethereum, which rallied over 50%. Bitfinex analysts added that Ethereum's unique yield-bearing features, particularly post-upgrade staking, are drawing attention from small-cap corporate treasuries. "This could redefine how such companies are valued," they noted, suggesting a shift toward ETH as a proxy asset. However, they warned that smaller firms may face greater risk due to volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and financial reporting challenges tied to crypto holdings. Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo Dispatch, framed the ETF flows within a broader macro and market context. "Bitcoin held firm above $118,000 in a choppy session, even as momentum slowed," he said. Despite selective pullbacks, the total crypto market cap remains elevated at $3.84 trillion. "Institutional flows and macro cues are playing a bigger role in shaping sentiment," Kalchev added, pointing to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and White House crypto policy report as key catalysts. Ethereum dropped 4% on the day to $3,550 but maintained momentum in ETF markets. "ETH futures now account for 38% of aggregate open interest — their highest level since April 2023," Kalchev noted. He also flagged improving trade sentiment, earnings divergence in equities, and rate decisions in the U.S. and Japan as macro drivers that could impact digital asset flows in the days ahead. With institutional appetite rising and structural adoption accelerating, Ethereum's liquidity, yield mechanics, and increasing derivatives footprint appear to be cementing its status as the next major allocation after Bitcoin. Read Next: Image: Shutterstock Up Next: Transform your trading with Benzinga Edge's one-of-a-kind market trade ideas and tools. Click now to access unique insights that can set you ahead in today's competitive market. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? This article $332 Million To Minus $85 Million: Why Are Ethereum ETFs Suddenly More Popular Than Bitcoin ETFs? originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. Sign in to access your portfolio
Economic Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
XRP sinks 2% again as SEC delays Bitwise crypto ETF — is the dip a red flag or a golden buy signal? Here's the 2025 XRP price prediction you need to see
XRP slipped 1.99% on Tuesday to $3.44, marking its second straight daily decline amid rising investor anxiety over the SEC's decision to delay Bitwise's crypto ETF conversion. The token is now down more than 7% from its recent high of $3.71, erasing a chunk of its July gains. Despite the pullback, analysts remain divided: some see the dip as a short-term shakeout before a rebound toward $4.50, while others warn it could trigger deeper consolidation if ETF approvals continue to stall. XRP price prediction and ETF news: SEC delays Bitwise crypto ETF — XRP is once again in the spotlight as new developments shake up the crypto ETF landscape. The SEC's sudden decision to halt Bitwise's spot crypto ETF conversion is sending waves across the market—impacting not only XRP but also Bitcoin, Solana, and other major altcoins. So, what's happening with XRP right now? And how could the delayed ETF approval change the game for crypto investors in 2025? As of now, XRP is trading around $3.44, marking a slight dip from its recent highs. Despite the short-term pullback, XRP remains up over 220% year-to-date, largely fueled by favorable legal clarity and growing institutional interest. Current price : $3.44 : $3.44 7-day range : $3.42 – $3.65 : $3.42 – $3.65 YTD gain : Over 220% : Over 220% Market cap: ~$185 billion XRP recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern, signaling potential for more upside. Some analysts see a short-term dip to $3.40 as healthy consolidation before a possible rebound toward $4.00 or even $4.50 by Q4 2025. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has temporarily blocked the conversion of Bitwise's 10 Crypto Index Fund into a spot ETF, just hours after approving it. The move has sparked renewed uncertainty around altcoin-based ETFs—particularly those including XRP, Solana, and Cardano. This comes at a time when investors are closely watching XRP ETF developments and the broader outlook for crypto ETFs in 2025. The SEC initially approved Bitwise's plan to convert its popular Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) into a spot-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) on July 22, 2025. This ETF would have offered direct exposure to top cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Cardano, Polygon, and within hours, Assistant Secretary Sherry R. Haywood invoked Rule 431, automatically staying the approval pending a full Commission review. The review halts trading of the ETF until the SEC makes a final stay reflects the SEC's growing caution toward ETFs that include altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Here's why this matters: XRP remains under regulatory scrutiny, with no full legal clarity following the SEC's ongoing case against Ripple. The Commission is working on a new framework for altcoin ETF regulation, especially those involving less liquid or more volatile tokens. Similar ETF conversions—like Grayscale's GDLC, which also includes XRP and SOL—have faced identical roadblocks. These concerns are focused on market manipulation, price volatility, and the lack of standardized oversight across crypto XRP remains a part of Bitwise's fund, this delay underscores the challenges facing spot XRP ETFs in the U.S. market. Here's where things stand: XRP comprises roughly 5% of the BITW index, making it a core altcoin in the ETF mix. The SEC has not approved any spot XRP ETF to date. However, futures-based XRP ETFs—including proposals from ProShares, Volatility Shares, and Tuttle Capital—are under SEC review this July. The REX-Osprey Spot XRP ETF decision is expected by July 25, 2025, which could mark a major turning point. According to Polymarket betting odds, there's an 85% chance an XRP ETF is approved by year-end, showing growing investor optimism. The SEC is likely stalling to establish stricter guidelines before allowing ETFs that hold assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. XRP, Solana, and other altcoins may now face delays in getting dedicated spot ETFs. It signals caution around regulatory clarity, even for tokens like XRP that have resolved their SEC cases. While the Bitwise delay is a setback, XRP is still in a strong position compared to other altcoins. Ripple ended its legal battle with the SEC earlier in 2025, giving XRP a level of regulatory clarity few other tokens have. CME Group is launching XRP futures on May 19, 2025—a clear vote of confidence from traditional finance. on May 19, 2025—a clear vote of confidence from traditional finance. Ripple's global partnerships and cross-border payment integrations continue to grow. Analysts believe XRP's established legal status could fast-track its ETF approval once the SEC finalizes broader crypto rules. Still, a dedicated XRP ETF may not arrive until late 2025 or early 2026, depending on how the SEC navigates broader altcoin regulation. Analysts remain bullish on XRP despite short-term regulatory hiccups. $4.00 – $4.50 by year-end, based on technical patterns and current institutional growth. $5.50 – $6.00 if ETF momentum returns and Bitcoin reclaims $100,000+. Some crypto influencers are predicting $10+ XRP by early 2026, assuming mass ETF adoption and mainstream utility expansion. Peter Brandt, a veteran chartist, recently pointed out a setup that could lead to a 60% rally, pushing XRP past $4.50 in the coming months. The Bitwise ETF pause is more than just an XRP story—it's a signal to the broader crypto market. Spot BTC ETFs are already live and thriving. The Bitwise delay doesn't impact existing Bitcoin products but shows that new ETF approvals are under stricter review. Ethereum ETFs are still under review, but are seen as the next likely candidates to be approved given institutional demand. These tokens now face longer waiting periods for ETF access. The lack of legal clarity (unlike XRP) could push approval timelines into 2026 or beyond. With the crypto market maturing, the SEC is clearly taking a cautious approach toward altcoin ETF approvals. XRP's advantage lies in its legal clarity and growing futures market presence. XRP remains fundamentally strong , even with temporary ETF delays. , even with temporary ETF delays. The price may consolidate between $3.40–$3.65 before the next breakout. before the next breakout. ETF approval delays are a hurdle—but not a roadblock—for XRP's long-term growth. Bitcoin and Ethereum are still the go-to assets for ETF investors—for now. Absolutely—but with a long-term view. If you're looking for a crypto with: Legal clarity Institutional growth Real-world use cases Upcoming futures launch Then XRP deserves a spot on your radar. While ETF headlines might create short-term volatility, the fundamentals remain strong—and if XRP does get its own ETF approval by the end of 2025, it could be one of the biggest altcoin breakout stories of the year. ETF Product Type Decision Deadline Status Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund Spot (multi-asset) TBD Approval stayed under Rule 431 ProShares Ultra XRP ETF Futures Mid-July 2025 Awaiting decision Tuttle XRP 2x ETF Futures Late July 2025 Under SEC review Volatility Shares XRP ETF Futures Late July 2025 Pending REX-Osprey Spot XRP ETF Spot July 25, 2025 Highly anticipated Bitwise Spot XRP ETF Spot October 2025 Long-term decision This regulatory pause reinforces the SEC's cautious stance toward altcoins in ETFs and signals that Bitcoin-only ETFs will likely dominate until new rules are established. For XRP holders, this means: Spot ETF approval remains uncertain in 2025 despite growing demand. Futures ETFs are more likely to gain early approval, offering short-term exposure for institutional and retail traders. The SEC's upcoming decisions on REX-Osprey and Bitwise XRP ETFs could set critical precedents for the future of altcoin ETFs. The SEC's halt on Bitwise's crypto ETF conversion highlights the regulatory roadblocks still facing altcoin exposure, particularly for XRP. While futures-based XRP ETFs may be approved soon, spot XRP ETFs are on hold pending legal clarity and formal rules from the Commission. As crypto markets await these landmark rulings, investors should stay updated on SEC actions and ETF developments through late July and early October. Q1. Why did the SEC halt Bitwise's ETF? The SEC paused it under Rule 431 for further review due to concerns over XRP and other altcoins in the fund. Q2. Will XRP ETFs still launch in 2025? Futures-based XRP ETFs may launch soon, but spot XRP ETFs like REX-Osprey face delays and pending approval.
