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Miami Herald
3 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Legendary Wall Street forecaster Bob Doll is having his best year
Stock market prognosticators are wrong so frequently that observers can rightly wonder if they're making forecasts using the oldest soothsaying methods, drawing pebbles from a pile, dropping hot wax into water, using random dots on paper or, of course, trying to find something magical in numbers. Yet at the start of every year – and again at the midpoint – countless market watchers take their crack at divining the future, mixing educated conjecture, informed hunches and the occasional WAG (wild-ass guess). Related: Veteran analyst drops updated stock market forecast Measured just about any way possible, most of those projections are wrong. CXO Advisory Group analyzed more than 6,500 forecasts-using methodologies ranging from fundamental to technical analysis-made by 68 experts on the U.S. stock market from 2005 through 2012. The investigation found that the accuracy of the forecasts was below 47% on average. That loses to a coin flip. Bloomberg/Getty Images Bad calls tend to be forgotten quickly, as soon as a forecast is updated based on new information. Winning picks are lionized and celebrated, even though the expert may have less staying power than a bull market rally. Wall Streeters sometimes call the tendency to place too much trust in a guru who made the most recent good call the "Elaine Garzarelli Effect." Garzarelli made her reputation as a Lehman Brothers investment strategist by urging clients to get out of the stock market the week before the Black Monday crash in 1987. That call made her one of the most widely quoted strategists on the Street, but it was also the pinnacle of her success. Whether it was brilliant prescience or dumb luck may be argued forever, but she never really duplicated that success. Garzarelli failed to generate much interest when she tried running mutual funds and a call on stocks being 25% undervalued late in 2007 as the global financial crisis was looming, further dimmed her star. While old-timers remember her name – she runs Garzarelli Research and her newsletter suggests that she is currently bullish on small- and mid-caps plus transportation stocks – she is like many one-time stars, known more for one right call than for being right consistently over years or decades. One Wall Street analyst who hasn't shied away from forecasts -- and has a stellar track record -- is Bob Doll, chief executive and investment officer at Crossmark Global Investors. In a 40-plus-year career, Doll has also been the top equity strategist at Blackrock, Nuveen, Merrill Lynch, and Oppenheimer Funds; at each of those stops, Doll-a regular guest on CNBC, Fox Business, and seemingly all financial media outlets-has started each year with 10 forecasts for the coming 12 months. Related: Top analyst sends message on pending ugly earnings miss (plus one big beat) Doll holds his picks up to a grader each year and historically has been right 72% of the time. That's roughly where he stood with his 2024 prognostications. He has said that his best years ever put him at just above 80%. Entering 2025, Doll was expecting "fewer tailwinds, but more tail risks." His picks reflected that, calling for "some bumps in the road, but some good news and probably more volatility," in an interview on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe that aired in January. Now, seven months later, Doll is getting the results he expected. Eight of Doll's 10 picks tend to be tied to the economy and stock market, with one tied to politics and a wildcard. This is what Doll was calling for entering 2025, and how it's turning out: Slower economic growth as unemployment rises past 4.5%. The jury is out on this one, but if unemployment hits Doll's target – it's currently just north of 4% -- mark this as a inflation that stays above Fed's 2% target, causing the central bank to cut rates less than expected. Barring a Fed surprise, this one's on track.10-year Treasury yields primarily between 4% and 5% with wider credit spreads. The 10-year Treasury has spent the year in that range; credit spreads were up around the tariff tantrum but have narrowed since. But if there's an economic slowdown, they will widen and this one will be a fail to achieve the market's consensus 14% expectation entering the year, and yet every sector has up earnings. This forecast is virtually a lock at this point, even with Doll expecting a second-half slowdown that could hurt some volatility rises, with the VIX average approaching 20. The VIX averaged 18.5 in the first quarter and 24.4 in the second, so this call –and the VIX has only been this high in two of the last 13 calendar years – might have seemed like a longshot but now looks like a sure experience a 10% correction and price/earnings ratios contract. The correction went on the books in April, and P/E ratios are down and appear likely to stay that way. This can be marked in the win portfolios beat cap-weighted portfolios and value beats growth. Both of these conditions are true at the moment; the question is whether that will hold up through energy and consumer staples outperform healthcare, technology and industrials. This looked like a sure thing into June, when the margin of outperformance shrank. If financials weaken, it could put this one in jeopardy; barring that, it looks like another win."Congress passes the Trump tax cut extension, reduces regulation, but tariffs and deportation are less than expected." The tariff forecast here is the one thing where Doll looks like he's wrong and won't recover; by year's end, this one is likely to look half-right, making it the one clear blemish that's efforts make progress but fall far short of $2 trillion in annualized savings. Even Doll acknowledges that this was a softball. In a July 22 interview on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe, Doll acknowledged that he now expects to be right at least 70 percent of the time, "but I wish coming into the year we knew which seven we were going to get right. We could make a lot of money. The problem is you don't know which ones you're going to get right and wrong." As for the rest of 2025, Doll gave three quick assessments for where things stand now: "One, the economy is slowing. We just don't know how much it's going to slow. Two, we're beginning to see tariffs show up in the inflation numbers. We don't know how much. And number three we have this tailwind called [artificial intelligence] which is real and is keeping things moving." Further, Doll said he expects the AI play to broaden out. The tailwind called AI has also been particularly strong at the high end of the market. We all were expecting some measure of breadth this year. Are we going to see the breadth show up at some point? Yeah. Well, it obviously occurred in the first quarter, and then it went away in the second quarter. While Doll noted that tariffs seem to be showing up in slight increases in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, he did not think they would cause a spike in inflation over the rest of the year. "I don't think [the impact of tariffs on inflation] it's going to be horrible," he said. "It's just going to be there. Remember, only 15% approximately of our GDP is from outside the United States. The other 85 is pretty domestic. So it's limited by how much of the economy it really affects. "Now, having said that, remember the Fed saying 'We've got to get inflation down to 2% and they're struggling at 3% and we're not going to get to 2%. And that means all these people who want the Fed to lower rates are going to have to wait a little bit longer." Related: Top analysts say investors are suckers for bad dividend stocks The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Mint
17-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Retail investors are walking the wire. Sebi should let VCs join the show.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) recently found that Wall Street financial firm Jane Street Capital had manipulated the cash and forward markets, fleeced hapless Indian investors, and made millions of dollars. For many, this would evoke images of The Wolf of Wall Street, howling Greed is Good, rebirth of the East India Company, and finance capital, rising, and shimmering, shapeless and threatening, from Lenin's tract on imperialism. It might be more useful to interpret this as India's shoe-shine-boy-offering-stock-tips moment, and remove the restriction on venture capital (VC) funds raising money from the public. The story goes that a stockbroker named Joseph, taking a break from hollering out the names of the stocks at the New York Stock Exchange's trading ring, walked around at Wall Street, and decided to let a lad offering a shine do his shoes, while he reflected on the good times America was going through in the late 1920s. Shining his shoes, the boy offered Joseph some hot tips for the market. If shoeshine boys were offering stock tips, Joseph realized that the market had reached fever-pitch, and it was time to get out. He sold his stocks and shorted the market, that is, sold shares he did not have, borrowing the shares to sell, and, as markets fell, used a fraction of the proceeds to buy back the shares to replace the borrowed shares. He made $150 million as Black Monday and Black Tuesday rolled out in late October 1929. Joseph used the money he made to give a head start to his brood of nine children. Two of them, John (Jack) and Robert (Bobby), subsequently made history. Joseph's surname was Kennedy. If Kennedy were alive today, and he were offered tips by a shoeshine boy on what stock options to buy, he would float a venture fund and list it on the market, regulators permitting. Risk-on mode Jane Street's precise shenanigans are incidental to the discussion here. What matters is the readiness of Indian participants in the futures and options (F&O) segment of the market to lose their shirts. Sebi has found that 91% of F&O players lose their money, while the gainers are high-frequency traders like Jane Street. Those who burn their hands in the F&O market do not retreat in sorrow. They return with more funds and hand them over to the likes of Jane Street. India accounts for approximately 60% of global stock futures and options volume. Its derivatives trade volume is around 350-400X the cash market volume—far exceeding the 5–15X seen in developed markets, according to a 2023 Axis Mutual Fund report. This behaviour is in line with that of investors who pour their life's savings into systematic investment plans (SIPs) of mutual funds—all of whom chase the same set of viable stocks and push up their prices to unrealistic multiples of the underlying companies' earnings, weighted for growth prospects. For Indian savers, mutual funds are what housing was to Chinese savers until recently. A stunted financial sector in China left real estate as the primary vehicle for individual savings, leading people to buy second and third homes. The solution to the dearth of investment-worthy companies that are not overvalued is two-fold: channel a portion of savings to markets abroad and their companies, and increase the number of investible companies. India does not save and invest enough at home to export savings without hurting its own growth. The preferable option is to create a new crop of profitable Indian companies. How do we do that? This is where venture capital comes in. Insurmountable spirit India has the talent to create new products and services. It offers vast scope for import substitution in the entire range of electronics, medical equipment, consumer goods, consumer durables, electric automobiles and components, energy transition products, telecom kits, and whatever else we gleefully import from China. A vast and totally new area is opening up in defence related goods and services. India has the talent to produce this. Indians are constrained by collapsing bridges, roads that are unsure whether to self-identify as roads or impromptu swimming pools; thousands of laws that can innocuously be breached to send the violator to prison; deficient access to institutional capital; a tradition that deems risk-taking as illegitimate for all but a tiny group; a culture that discourages new knowledge by holding all knowledge to be finite and contained in the scriptures; a hierarchical social structure that makes the questioning of established authority sacrilege; an education system that privileges rote learning and grades, while shunning critical thinking; and an R&D outlay of just 0.64% of gross domestic product (GDP). Yet, India is home to the world's third-largest herd of unicorns, startups valued at over a billion dollars. Indians do world-class R&D at proliferating global capability centres in the country to create value for multinationals. Indians abroad lead companies and start up big time. The point is to make access to risk capital more prolific. Some of the funded projects would become stellar successes and make enough money to make up for those that fail. Ordinary investors normally shelter from such extreme risk and reward. That is why Sebi bars VC funds from raising capital from the public. Indian investors' appetite for risk is something else. It makes a lot of sense to use that appetite to redirect their funds to create new, exciting companies, instead of inflating the prices of existing companies to unrealistic levels. Sebi should remove its restrictions on VC funds accepting money from the public. Let India be the first country to let shoeshine boys spread the word on hot venture stocks to buy. For more such views, read Mint Snapview.
Wales Online
08-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Wales Online
Ben Fogle pays tribute to late castaway 'who found joy after losing millions'
Ben Fogle pays tribute to late castaway 'who found joy after losing millions' David Glasheen, one of the original castaways who featured in the Channel 5 documentary series New Lives in the Wild, has passed away at the age of 81 Ben Fogle features in hit show New Lives in the Wild (Image: Channel 5 ) Ben Fogle has paid tribute to the late David Glasheen, a former millionaire who became known for his appearance on Channel 5's New Lives in the Wild. The news broke over the weekend that the ex-stockbroker had died at the age of 81, after becoming well-known for his simple way of life. David led a reclusive existence on Restoration Island, off North East Australia, with only his dog Quassi for company until the dingo was tragically killed by a snake bite in 2018. Following the loss of his fortune during the Black Monday stock market crash, which saw the market drop by 22% in just two days, Glasheen moved to the remote island in 1997. Ben Fogle visited David Glasheen in his Channel 5 docu-series (Image: Channel 5 ) Television presenter Ben, 51, has now shared a moving homage to David, conveying his sadness at the passing of the one-time gold mining magnate and real estate tycoon, reports Gloucestershire Live. Article continues below "He was one of the first Wildmen I visited for New Lives in the Wild," Fogle wrote in a caption on Instagram. "He lived alone on Restoration Island in North Eastern Australia with just his beloved dog/dingo cross, Quassi for company. "Dave lost his multi-million pound fortune overnight and on a whim relocated to the secluded Restoration Island where he discovered joy in tranquility and isolation. "He truly was one of a kind and I feel so lucky to have met him a few times and spent time with him on his little Australian paradise." Ben then shared: "It saddens me that so many of the folk I have met over the years are passing away but it is also a reminder of the value and preciousness of life. Martin Clunes travels the globe meeting characters that have formed extraordinary relationships with animals (Image: ITV ) "Make the most of this short time we have. Dave was 81 and lived the richest life I know. Dave found true happiness when he lost his millions and reconnected with nature." He ended his tribute with a green love heart emoji, adding: "Rest in Peace Dave." David had previously made known his wish to die on the isolated island, devoid of modern conveniences like electricity, fresh water, or internet. In a conversation from June 2017, David had stated: 'I want to die here – where else would I? Article continues below "This is my heaven on earth. 'When I came here I was sick of money – money is what makes people sick – and my marriage had broken apart. "But being on your own you do miss intelligent conversation and the physical contact of other people."
Edinburgh Live
08-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Edinburgh Live
Ben Fogle pays heartfelt tribute to castaway who found joy after losing millions
Our community members are treated to special offers, promotions and adverts from us and our partners. You can check out at any time. More info Ben Fogle has paid tribute to the late David Glasheen, a former millionaire who became known for his appearance on Channel 5's documentary series New Lives in the Wild. This weekend, news broke that the ex-stockbroker had died at the age of 81, after becoming well-known for his simple way of life. David led a reclusive existence on Restoration Island, off the coast of North East Australia, with only his dog Quassi for company until the dingo was tragically killed by a snake bite in 2018. Following the loss of his fortune during the Black Monday stock market crash, which saw the market drop by 22% in just two days, Glasheen moved to the remote island in 1997. (Image: Channel 5) Television presenter Ben, aged 51, has now shared a moving homage to David, sharing his sadness at the passing of the one-time gold mining magnate and real estate tycoon, reports Gloucestershire Live. "He was one of the first Wildmen I visited for New Lives in the Wild," Fogle wrote in an Instagram post. "He lived alone on Restoration Island in North Eastern Australia with just his beloved dog/dingo cross, Quassi for company. "Dave lost his multi-million pound fortune overnight and on a whim relocated to the secluded Restoration Island where he discovered joy in tranquility and isolation. "He truly was one of a kind and I feel so lucky to have met him a few times and spent time with him on his little Australian paradise." Ben then remarked: "It saddens me that so many of the folk I have met over the years are passing away but it is also a reminder of the value and preciousness of life. "Make the most of this short time we have. Dave was 81 and lived the richest life I know. Dave found true happiness when he lost his millions and reconnected with nature." He ended his message with a green love heart emoji, saying: "Rest in Peace Dave." David had previously shared his wish to die on the isolated island, devoid of electricity, fresh water, or internet. (Image: ITV) In a statement from June 2017, David declared: 'I want to die here – where else would I? This is my heaven on earth. 'When I came here I was sick of money – money is what makes people sick – and my marriage had broken down. "But being on your own you do miss intelligent conversation and the physical contact of other people."
Metro
07-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Metro
Ben Fogle honours late castaway who 'found happiness after losing millions'
Ben Fogle has paid tribute to the late castaway and former millionaire David Glasheen after he featured in the Channel 5 docu-series New Lives in the Wild. It was announced over the weekend that the former stockbroker died aged 81, after he made a name for himself for his stripped-back lifestyle. He lived alone on Restoration Island, off North East Australia, with only his dog Quassi for company, until the dingo died in 2018 from a snake bite. Glasheen moved to the remote island in 1997 after losing his fortune in the stock exchange crash Black Monday, when the market fell by 22% in two days. TV presenter Fogle, 51, has now shared a heartfelt statement in tribute to Glasheen, saying he was 'so sad' to hear the former gold mining tycoon and property magnate had died. 'He was one of the first Wildmen I visited for New Lives in the Wild,' wrote Fogle in a caption to a post on Instagram. 'He lived alone on Restoration Island in North Eastern Australia with just his beloved dog/dingo cross, Quassi for company. 'Dave had lost his multi million dollar fortune overnight and on a whim moved to remote Restoration island where he finally found happiness in tranquility and isolation. 'He really was one of a kind and I feel so fortunate to have met him a few times and spent time with him on his little Australian paradise.' Fogle then added: 'It saddens me that so many of the folk I have met over the years are passing away but it is also a reminder of the value and preciousness of life. 'Make the most of this short time we have. Dave was 81 and lived the richest life I know. Dave found true happiness when he lost his millions and reconnected with nature.' He then ended the caption with a green love heart emoji, writing: 'Rest in Peace Dave.' More Trending Glasheen previously shared his plans to die on the remote island, where he had no access to electricity, fresh water or internet. Speaking in June 2017, David said: 'I want to die here – where else would I? This is my heaven on earth. 'When I came here I was sick of money – money is what makes people sick – and my marriage had broken apart. View More » 'But being on your own you do miss intelligent conversation and the physical contact of other people.' Got a story? If you've got a celebrity story, video or pictures get in touch with the entertainment team by emailing us celebtips@ calling 020 3615 2145 or by visiting our Submit Stuff page – we'd love to hear from you. MORE: Netflix fans can now binge all 4 seasons of 'near-perfect' crime series MORE: The completely free streaming service that boasts 10,000 shows and movies MORE: Vanessa Feltz guest apologises after 'disgraceful' remarks spark almost 2,000 complaints
