Latest news with #BlendofModels
Yahoo
07-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Wx Worries: Timing of strongest storms this weekend
SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Thunderstorms will return to the ArkLaTex this weekend. Futurecast indicates two main waves of storms. One on Saturday night & Sunday morning, and a second Sunday night into Monday. Sunday night's storms could be the strongest. After a dry day over most of the ArkLatex on Saturday. Scattered storms will move across mainly the northeast half of the area Saturday night. While SPC indicates that we have a slight severe weather risk, hi-res models indicate that we could see the storms remain slightly below severe limits with wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph. Some hail will also be possible. Tornadoes are looking doubtful Saturday night. These storms will likely weaken as they move across NW Louisiana late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Several hi-res models are indicating that we will see a complex of storms develop over NW Texas Saturday afternoon. These storms will likely move into the ArkLaTex sometime late Sunday night. Futurecast indicates that this wave of storms could be stronger and could bring a damaging wind threat as they move across mainly E & NE Texas and NW Louisiana late Sunday night into Monday morning. SPC again has our area's severe storm risk at level 2 or slight. That means any severe weather issues should be somewhat scattered. Based on current information, I'd put my level of worry for Saturday night's storms at 3 out of 10 and 4 out of 10 for the possibly stronger storms late Sunday night into Monday. The threat of scattered storms will likely continue through at least next Friday. The latest run of the Blend of Models shows a big variation in rainfall potential with amounts ranging from around 1.5' over the southern part of the area to over 5' over the NW part of the ArkLaTex. Any Tropical worries? The National Hurricane Center indicates that we will likely not see any tropical development in the Atlantic Basin during the next week. Long-range models show that the tropics could stay quiet for the next two weeks. You might notice a bit of a haze in the air this weekend as some dust from the Saharan Desert moves over the 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
STORMY weather pattern begins late Sunday!
SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – If you have outdoor plans this Memorial Day weekend, I hope they are on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over part of the area on Sunday and likely continue through most of next week. Severe storms will be possible. The threat of strong to severe storms will begin over the northern part of the ArkLaTex on Sunday. The outlook from SPC indicates that the severe threat will probably be highest to the NW of our area, but an isolated severe storm capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible. That severe threat will shift to the south on Memorial Day. SPC indicates a slight risk for the SW half of the ArkLaTex. Damaging winds and large hail will remain the main threats. The tornado risk is still looking very low, but it is not zero. Now that we somewhat clearer view of where the storms could develop on Sunday and Monday, I'd put my level of worry for severe weather at 4 on a 10 scale. Models are still indicating that we could see more rain through the rest of next week, however, additional severe weather issues should be more isolated. Another issue that could develop next week is the potential for some flooding. Yesterday, the Blend of Models showed that we would see anywhere from 3.5 to 6' of rain. The latest outlook hasn't changed much, with amounts of 3.5 to nearly 6″ looking possible. Some models show that some areas could see SEVEN inches! The only good news in next week's rather dismal outlook is that it won't be as hot. Daytime highs will be in the low to middle 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. We should see some sunshine return by next weekend!!!Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
01-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
FLOODING threat to increase late this week
SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Strong to severe storms are looking likely for most of the ArkLaTex. I covered those threats in this article. Flooding will become a growing concern as we move toward the weekend. How much rain? Over the past several days, models have been consistent in showing that parts of the ArkLaTex could get nearly TWO MONTHS worth of rain in the next four days. The Blend of Models shows that rainfall totals will range from two to three inches over East Texas and Northwest Louisiana. This likely won't be enough to worry much about flooding. That will be a different storm further north in SW AR and SE OK. There, rainfall totals of five to as much as nine inches will be possible. Daily rain potential: Above is a look at the 24-hour rain potential for De Queen from the Blend of Models. I chose De Queen because this is one location that could see some of the highest 4-day totals. You can see that some of the heaviest rain could fall on Friday and Saturday. This will fall after getting a decent amount of rain on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the ground will be rather saturated, increasing the flooding threat from heavier downpours. A Flood Watch is in effect for the northern third of the ArkLaTex. What about lakes and rivers? It's a bit early to provide a clear picture of the impact of the expected rain on area lakes and rivers. I don't expect any major issues with the Red River as it is currently flowing at normal levels, and much of this rain will be caught by reservoirs in SE OK, SW AR, and NE TX. Those lakes will likely see a significant rise this late this week and this weekend. We won't know how much until we know how much rain has fallen. Another lake to watch next week will be Lake Bistineau. Much of its water comes from SW AR. 10-Day Forecast: The good news is that once the storms depart late Saturday or Saturday night, we will settle into a dry weather pattern that will last through almost all of next week. The week will begin with highs in the 60s and end with highs in the 70s. Overnight lows next week will be in the 40s and 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
08-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Latest on possible storms late next week
SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – After experiencing below-normal temperatures this weekend, much warmer air will quickly return. With that warm air in place, two disturbances late next week could bring a threat of storms. The majority of models show that the best chance of severe weather will be to the east of the ArkLaTex. Disturbance #1 Wednesday: Not much has changed in the outlook with a disturbance that will bring rain and possibly storms to our area on Wednesday. Most models show showers & t'storms developing right over our area and strengthening as they move east Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Disturbance #2 Friday night: Models have shifted the main upper-level low associated with this disturbance a little further north since yesterday. The majority of models show that the rain with this system could play out very similarly to Wednesday's. Showers and t'storms could develop over us Friday evening and strengthen as they move east Friday night and Saturday. This will be a very strong system, so we will have to stay on top of any changes to the location and timing of where Friday's storms develop. As of right now, it appears that we could dodge a bullet. You can see that reflected in the 10-day rainfall outlook from the Blend of Models. It keeps the total rain during the next ten days below 1'. 10-Day Forecast: Your 10-day forecast shows three disturbances that will bring a chance of rain in the coming week and a half. The first will be on Saturday, the second on Wednesday, and the third next Friday. IF we see any severe weather, it will likely be with the final disturbance late next week. Daytime temperatures by then will likely be in the 70s and low 80s. As of right now, it appears that the best severe weather risk will be to our east. High temperatures will cool to the 50s & 60s this weekend and warm back into the 70s and low 80s next week. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s and 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
18-02-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Winter Wx Advisory: Rain changes to Frz Rain for some
SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Scattered showers have returned to much of the ArkLaTex on Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday night will tumble to near freezing over much of the area. A little freezing rain will be possible for the NE quarter of the area where the cold arrives soonest. Precipitation timing: Futurecast shows scattered showers will continue to move across the area Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Cold air will begin to move into the ArkLaTex from the northeast. This is the part of the area where we will dip below freezing before the rain ends thus allowing it to change to light freezing rain. You can see the areas of pink are where Futurecast shows freezing rain will be possible. The precipitation will end late tonight. Expect a mostly cloudy and windy day on Wednesday How much ice? Fortunately, ice accumulations will be rather light. The latest from the Blend of Models shows that most areas that get freezing rain will see less than 1/10' of accumulations. Power issues usually aren't an issue with this much ice, however, we could see some slick spots, especially on untreated bridges and overpasses. The graphic above displays the expect amount of ice accumulations (green numbers) and the heaviest possible accumulation (red numbers). Cold & windy Wednesday: Temperatures on Wednesday will be colder. Expect lows to settle into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Daytime highs on Wednesday will be in the 30s. The cold combined with a gust north to northeasterly wind will create wind chills in the 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
