Latest news with #BloombergEconomics
Time of India
4 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
China's factory activity contraction eases after trade war truce
China 's factory activity contracted at a slower rate in May after a reprieve in the tariff war with the US unclogged trade flows, even as weak domestic demand continues to weigh on the economy. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.5, versus 49 in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said Saturday. That matched the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The non-manufacturing measure of activity in construction and services fell to 50.3 from 50.4 in April, the statistics office said. That compares with a forecast of 50.5. The composite index rose to 50.4. The PMI figures are the first official data available each month to provide a snapshot of the health of the Chinese economy. The latest readings capture the initial aftermath of the trade truce, after Beijing and Washington agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days beginning May 14. The strength of manufacturing in the months ahead is still in question given an uncertain export outlook, and especially as tensions rise again in recent days with Washington. Although the US lowered the average rate of tariffs to roughly 40% following talks in Geneva, that level is still enough to reduce American imports from China by around 70% over the medium term, according to estimates from Bloomberg Economics. Live Events Even so, the reprieve on tariffs has sent trade between China and the US surging. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg lifted forecasts for growth and exports this year following the agreement in Geneva, but still expect deflationary pressures to get worse in China, which has already seen economy-wide prices fall for two straight years. Gross domestic product is forecast to expand 4.5% this year, based on a Bloomberg survey conducted in late May, still significantly lower than the around 5% target set by Chinese policy makers. Economists expect exports will grow 1.1% in 2025 versus a year ago, an upgrade from the 1% contraction they expected in April.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's Tariff Empire Under Fire -- Court Ruling Could Flip Global Trade on Its Head
Trump's favorite tariff tool just got slapped down in courtand while the appeals bench hit pause on that decision, the damage could already be done. A federal trade court ruled Trump overstepped by using emergency powers under IEEPA to push broad levies on U.S. allies and rivals. If the ruling sticks, it could roll back two-thirds of those tariffs and sink the effective U.S. tariff rate from nearly 27% to under 6%, according to Bloomberg Economics. That's not just a legal blowit's a blow to the core of Trump's trade leverage heading into election season. The White House isn't out of options, but none of them are quick or clean. Trump could fall back on older laws like Section 232 or 301, which allow for tariffs on national security or unfair trade groundsbut those come with long timelines, more paperwork, and tighter restrictions. Yes, he can pivot, said Capital Alpha's James Lucier. But he's running out of time to make it count before the midterms. Trade advisor Peter Navarro insists the tariff agenda is alive and well, but any new approach will likely take monthsnot daysto materialize. That uncertainty alone could rattle global supply chains that have already been stretched thin. For companies exposed to cross-border tariffs, this isn't just noiseit's strategy-altering. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which relies heavily on complex global sourcing, could face new cost risks if tariffs return through different legal doors. And industries like steel, autos, and semiconductorssome already caught in prior Section 232 probesmight get pulled back into the spotlight. With a court-imposed June 9 deadline looming and the Supreme Court now in the mix, investors should expect this legal fight to shape not just headlines, but actual trade flows and margin forecasts heading into the second half of 2025. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
The National
3 days ago
- Business
- The National
Labour migration crackdown to shrink UK economy, expert analysis finds
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Keir Starmer drew furious comparisons to the racist 20th-century Tory politician Enoch Powell after he claimed the UK was becoming an 'island of strangers' in a speech in which he also outlined plans to tighten migration rules. The Labour leader outlined measures including ending all visas for care workers, extending the wait to apply for settlement or citizenship from five years to 10, introducing higher English standard tests, and a cut in the amount of time foreign students at UK universities can stay after graduating. READ MORE: Scottish care sector chief compares Keir Starmer to Enoch Powell in damning comments The Home Office said that the changes could reduce the number of people coming to the UK by up to 100,000 per year – while Starmer dismissed concerns that doing so would negatively impact the UK economy. However, analysis from Bloomberg Economics has now projected that the measures will in fact cut UK GDP by 0.6% by 2029/30. Tax revenues would also drop by around £9 billion per year, the analysis further found. It comes despite Labour having repeatedly made clear that economic growth is their first priority. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said he is aiming to grow the economy before anything elseBloomberg Economics' Ana Andrade said: 'The Government's new migration policy is one more reason to think the autumn statement will be another challenging event for the Chancellor. 'Labour's turn to the right on migration may be seen as politically savvy. In time, it might also ease the demands on housing and public services. 'In the near term, however, the most obvious consequences of tighter migration controls could well be more difficult decisions on tax and spending.' READ MORE: 'You've been learning': Nigel Farage praises Keir Starmer for immigration speech The news comes after First Minister John Swinney said that Labour's immigration stance poses a 'critical economic threat' to Scotland. 'I made this point to the Prime Minister when I met him on Friday – that the changing dynamics of our labour market and the need for us to encourage migration to support our working age population has to be recognised in the approach that is taken to migration in the United Kingdom," the SNP leader said. Earlier in May, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the biggest fall in net migration since the pandemic. The figure stood at an estimated 431,000 in the year ending December 2024, down 49.9% from 860,000 a year earlier. The biggest drop in terms of numbers was seen in non-EU nationals coming to the UK for work – this fell by 108,000, which was a 49% fall in the year ending December 2024. The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said at the time that the 'record-breaking decline' in net migration was possible 'primarily because numbers had previously been so high'. Its director, Dr Madeleine Sumption, said the economic impact of the fall 'is actually likely to be relatively small' because 'the groups that have driven the decline, such as study and work dependants, are neither the highest skilled, highest-paid migrants who make substantial contributions to tax revenues, nor the most disadvantaged groups that require substantial support'.
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Labour's Migration Crackdown Puts Reeves' UK Headroom at Risk
The UK government's move to crack down on migration is set to all but wipe out Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves's budgetary room for maneuver because of a lower tax take, according to analysis from Bloomberg Economics. Prime Minister Keir Starmer earlier this month outlined plans to reduce net migration to the UK through policies including banning the overseas recruitment of care workers and extending the period after which migrants can claim settled status to 10 years from five. The measure will lower net migration by around 100,000 per year, according to the government's estimates.
Jordan News
4 days ago
- Business
- Jordan News
The U.S. Dollar Rises Globally - Jordan News
The U.S. Dollar Rises Globally The U.S. dollar rose on Thursday following a court ruling that prevents President Donald Trump from imposing tariffs on imports from other countries. The decision helped ease currency volatility, which has plagued the dollar this year due to ongoing trade uncertainty. اضافة اعلان According to Bloomberg Economics, the U.S. Dollar Index — which measures the performance of the greenback against six major currencies — surpassed the 100 mark for the first time in a week. However, the index remains down 8 percent since the beginning of the year. The dollar rose 0.72% against the yen to 145.86, and 0.63% against the Swiss franc to 0.8326. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.42% to $1.1245, and the British pound dropped 0.3% to $1.3432. (Petra)
