Latest news with #BloombergEconomics
Mint
2 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Trump's Brazil Blow-Up Raises Stakes for Leftist Summit in Chile
Fresh off Donald Trump's threat to slap 50% tariffs on Brazil, a summit of leftist leaders risks triggering a broader backlash from the White House. Chilean President Gabriel Boric on Monday will receive Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, along with Colombia's Gustavo Petro, Spain's Pedro Sánchez and Uruguay's Yamandú Orsi for the one-day conference in Santiago. The meeting's goals of fomenting multilateralism and combating disinformation risk provoking a backlash from Trump, who floated tariffs against the BRICS bloc of emerging-market countries when they criticized his levies at a separate gathering earlier this month. Then he trained his rage on host-nation Brazil. This summit now puts a bullseye on leaders like Boric, who has so far evaded Trump's threats, as well as others like Petro, who is navigating souring relations with the US. On July 16, Trump said he will send letters to over 150 countries notifying them of tariffs in the latest sign of his strategy for weaponizing trade. As many nations strive to work together to blunt the effects of protectionism, Trump is showing he won't hesitate to lash out against critics. What Bloomberg Economics Says 'We had a very recent precedent that could repeat itself. We're seeing objectives that are at odds with Trump and also progressive leaders that are teaming up, potentially with a statement that he can feel is also criticism of himself and his policies.' — Jimena Zúñiga, Latin America Geoeconomics Analyst Monday's meeting mirrors growing cooperation in other regions of the world such as the European Union, which is preparing to step up engagement with countries like Canada that have been hit by Trump's tariffs and ultimatums. The gathering in Chile marks the first formal, face-to-face encounter of the group following an online conference in February this year. Participants will advance in their 'shared position in favor of multilateralism, democracy and global cooperation based on social justice,' according to a Chilean government statement. The group's proposals will be presented and developed further at its next meeting on the sidelines of September's United Nations General Assembly. 'These are countries that are not inclined to just bow down and make concessions to Washington, given the very coercive and punitive approach that Washington is taking,' said Kenneth Roberts, a Cornell University professor of government who focuses on Latin American politics. In that context, the summit is a particularly big gamble for Boric as host, given that his government is weak and counts the US as its biggest trading partner after China. 'There are scenarios where the United States could take economic actions, at least in the short term, which would be detrimental to Chile,' Roberts said. Lula presided over July's BRICS conference in Rio de Janeiro which released a declaration criticizing trade protectionism and airstrikes on Iran, both clear swipes at Trump even if it didn't mention him or the US by name. Days later, the US president threatened aggressive tariffs on goods from Latin America's largest economy, heavily citing political reasons. Monday's event in Santiago will end up being quite different from the broader BRICS gathering, which included China, Iran and Saudi Arabia and addressed sensitive issues like dollarization, said Brian Winter, executive vice president of Americas Society and Council of the Americas. As a result, the odds of a response from Trump are lower, he said. The event also gives Boric's team an opportunity to learn from Lula's recent experiences. 'I suspect that the Chilean foreign ministry, which is the host government, will be cautious and try to ensure that whatever collective statements are made are free of inflammatory language,' Winter said. There's scant room for error. In Brazil, polls show more voters rallying around Lula as he stands up against Trump's coercion. In contrast, Boric's and Petro's high disapproval rates mean there's little they can do to reverse public sentiment, said Zúñiga, from Bloomberg Economics. Boric's outgoing administration is already on alert as it awaits details on Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The red metal is Chile's top export product. Any backlash from Trump stands to 'elicit some criticism because some Chileans may say, 'hey Boric, this just happened to Brazil, you should have been more careful,'' Zúñiga said. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Jordan News
5 hours ago
- Business
- Jordan News
Global Gold Prices Hold Steady - Jordan News
Global Gold Prices Hold Steady Gold prices remained stable during early Asian trading on Monday, as investors await further developments in U.S. trade talks and the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming decision on monetary policy later this week. اضافة اعلان According to Bloomberg Economics, spot gold edged up by 0.1% to $3,353.81 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures remained unchanged at $3,360.50 per ounce. As for other precious metals: Silver rose 0.2% to $38.24 per ounce Platinum climbed 0.4% to $1,427.05 Palladium increased 0.6% to $1,248.50 The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.0% during its meeting this week, following a series of rate cuts.
Bloomberg
15 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Fed Will Keep Trump Waiting Amid a Wave of Global Rate Cuts
Donald Trump is struggling to get the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but policymakers around the world won't need so much convincing. The US president's tariff onslaught is likely to force further measured easing in coming months by most of the 23 central banks featured in this quarterly guide on the global monetary outlook, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Business Times
a day ago
- Business
- Business Times
Trump tariffs to decimate China profits: analysis
Most of China's industries cannot survive US President Donald Trump's tariffs at current levels, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg Economics (BE). Tariffs now set at roughly 40 per cent compare with average industrial profit margins of about 14.8 per cent in 2024. That gap could prompt more intense price cuts, weakening profits, and – in the worst case – layoffs and potentially a wave of bankruptcies and closures, analysts Chang Shu, David Qu and Maeva Cousin found. Among industries most at risk are textiles, IT and communication equipment and furniture manufacturing. Of 33 industrial sectors that analysts considered, only five have margins that are wider than tariff rates. They include pharmaceuticals, tobacco and oil and gas extraction. 'Some companies with a heavy dependence on the US market may not survive,' economists led by Chang Shu wrote in a research note on Thursday (Jul 17). 'Others will scramble to adapt – accepting lower margins, laying off workers, cutting wages, and potentially flooding the domestic and other foreign markets with cut-price goods.' The findings underscore the economic risks that tariffs pose to the world's second-largest economy at a time when domestic consumption remains sluggish. Trade officials continue to negotiate with US counterparts on a bilateral deal to avoid another escalation in levies; earlier this year, tariffs on China soared to 145 per cent. Data last week underscored the Asian giant's reliance on industrial production and exports to fuel growth. While gross domestic product advanced 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, outpacing analysts' estimates, it was helped by shipment frontloading and manufacturers cutting prices, both of which are tough to sustain. Nearly half of China's industrial sectors rely on overseas markets to absorb 10 per cent or more of their output, the BE analysis found, and the US remains the country's largest single-country trading partner. Elevated tariffs could, in the long run, prompt companies in the US to source goods from other countries, the analysts wrote. To be sure, there are factors that could cushion the blow to China's industry, including exports to other countries in which goods do not face the same trade barriers. Some products may also be absorbed by domestic demand. Some sectors have also cornered the global market, making it difficult or impossible for US firms to find needed items elsewhere. China's government could also step in with additional fiscal support. BLOOMBERG
Business Times
a day ago
- Business
- Business Times
Trump tariffs to decimate China profits: Bloomberg Economics
Most of China's industries can't survive US President Donald Trump's tariffs at current levels, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg Economics (BE). Tariffs now set at roughly 40 per cent compare with average industrial profit margins of about 14.8 per cent in 2024. That gap could prompt more intense price cuts, weakening profits, and – in the worst case – layoffs and potentially a wave of bankruptcies and closures, analysts Chang Shu, David Qu and Maeva Cousin found. Among industries most at risk are textiles, IT and communication equipment and furniture manufacturing. Of 33 industrial sectors that analysts considered, only five have margins that are wider than tariff rates. They include pharmaceuticals, tobacco and oil and gas extraction. 'Some companies with a heavy dependence on the US market may not survive,' economists led by Chang Shu wrote in a research note on Thursday (Jul 17). 'Others will scramble to adapt – accepting lower margins, laying off workers, cutting wages, and potentially flooding the domestic and other foreign markets with cut-price goods.' The findings underscore the economic risks that tariffs pose to the world's second-largest economy at a time when domestic consumption remains sluggish. Trade officials continue to negotiate with US counterparts on a bilateral deal to avoid another escalation in levies; earlier this year, tariffs on China soared to 145 per cent. Data last week underscored the Asian giant's reliance on industrial production and exports to fuel growth. While gross domestic product advanced 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, outpacing analysts' estimates, it was helped by shipment frontloading and manufacturers cutting prices, both of which are tough to sustain. Nearly half of China's industrial sectors rely on overseas markets to absorb 10 per cent or more of their output, the BE analysis found, and the US remains the country's largest single-country trading partner. Elevated tariffs could, in the long run, prompt companies in the US to source goods from other countries, the analysts wrote. To be sure, there are factors that could cushion the blow to China's industry, including exports to other countries in which goods don't face the same trade barriers. Some products may also be absorbed by domestic demand. Some sectors have also cornered the global market, making it difficult or impossible for US firms to find needed items elsewhere. China's government could also step in with additional fiscal support. BLOOMBERG
