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Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Canadian dollar clings to weekly gain
TORONTO: The Canadian dollar steadied against its US counterpart on Friday, holding on to a modest weekly gain, after softer-than-expected domestic jobs data that had only limited impact on expectations for Bank of Canada interest rate cuts. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3745 per US dollar, or 72.75 US cents, after moving in a range of 1.3726 to 1.3762. For the week, the currency was up 0.3%. The Canadian economy shed 40,800 jobs in July, giving back some of the substantial gains seen in the prior month and sending the share of people employed in the population to an eight-month low. Economists expected a gain of 13,500 jobs. 'We are still weeks away from the next (BoC) meeting with more key data in between, which should limit the market reaction,' strategists at TD Securities, including Jayati Bharadwaj, said in a note. 'The trade deal with the US remains the big risk on the horizon, but we do not think that it will be a ground-breaking factor for the economy or for the BoC when the majority of exports are USMCA-compliant, and more and more exporters continue to register as such every month.' About 92% of Canadian exports by value entered the US market on a tariff-free basis in June under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Investors see a 38% chance that the Canadian central bank will lower its benchmark rate from the current level of 2.75% in its September 17 policy announcement, up from 33% before the jobs data. Stocks on Wall Street moved higher and the US dollar fell against a basket of major currencies as President Donald Trump's pick to serve out the final few months of a newly vacant Federal Reserve governor's seat bolstered expectations for rate cuts by the US central bank.
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Canadian dollar clings to weekly gain as rate-cut bets edge up after jobs data
* Canadian dollar trades in a range of 1.3726 to 1.3762 * The loonie on track to add 0.3% for the week * Canada's economy sheds 40,800 jobs in July * Canada-US 10-year yield spread widens by 6.6 basis points By Fergal Smith TORONTO, - The Canadian dollar steadied against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, holding on to a modest weekly gain, after softer-than-expected domestic jobs data that had only limited impact on expectations for Bank of Canada interest rate cuts. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3745 per U.S. dollar, or 72.75 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3726 to 1.3762. For the week, the currency was up 0.3%. The Canadian economy shed 40,800 jobs in July, giving back some of the substantial gains seen in the prior month and sending the share of people employed in the population to an eight-month low. Economists expected a gain of 13,500 jobs. "We are still weeks away from the next meeting with more key data in between, which should limit the market reaction," strategists at TD Securities, including Jayati Bharadwaj, said in a note. "The trade deal with the U.S. remains the big risk on the horizon, but we do not think that it will be a ground-breaking factor for the economy or for the BoC when the majority of exports are USMCA-compliant, and more and more exporters continue to register as such every month." About 92% of Canadian exports by value entered the U.S. market on a tariff-free basis in June under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Investors see a 38% chance that the Canadian central bank will lower its benchmark rate from the current level of 2.75% in its September 17 policy announcement, up from 33% before the jobs data. Stocks on Wall Street moved higher and the U.S. dollar fell against a basket of major currencies as President Donald Trump's pick to serve out the final few months of a newly vacant Federal Reserve governor's seat bolstered expectations for rate cuts by the U.S. central bank. Canadian bond yields eased across the curve. The 10-year was down 2.5 basis points at 3.377%, while it fell 6.6 basis points further below the U.S. equivalent to a gap of about 91 basis points. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
The Market Online
01-08-2025
- Business
- The Market Online
BoC and U.S. Fed rate decision: More easing ahead?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.75% The U.S. Federal Reserve also held its rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% in a 9–2 vote following a two-day policy meeting in a 9–2 vote following a two-day policy meeting Brianne Gardner: 'Dividend-paying sectors like utilities, telecom, and real estate stand to benefit most from easing rates—a trend reflected in the Canadian market's relative outperformance so far in 2025.' 'We're not out of the woods yet,' Gardner said. 'But there's opportunity ahead if you know where to look.' The Bank of Canada will announce its next rate decision on September 17. Content for this article is from the above Expert Exchange interview with Brianne Gardner, Senior Wealth Manager at Velocity Investment, Raymond James. She covers the recent BoC and U.S. Fed Rate decisio n, inflation and global trade. This article is a journalistic opinion piece which has been written based on independent research. It is intended to inform investors and should not be taken as a recommendation or financial advice. BoC and U.S. Fed Rate decision The BoC and U.S. Fed have announced their July 2025 rate decisions. Ask ChatGPT Both governments have held their benchmark interest rates steady this week, reinforcing a wait-and-see approach as both economies navigate trade uncertainty, uneven inflation trends, and diverging growth paths. The decisions—widely expected by economists—signal cautious optimism from policymakers, but also highlight growing concerns around global demand. 'The Bank is tilted toward cutting rates further, especially in Canada,' said Gardner. 'They're waiting for clarity on trade negotiations, particularly between Canada and the U.S., before making the next move.' Brianne Gardner, Senior Wealth Manager at Velocity Investment, Raymond James The Bank of Canada's overnight rate remains at 2.75%, with another possible cut on the table later this year if core inflation continues to soften or job losses worsen. Governor Tiff Macklem cited 'clouded' economic conditions, elevated inflation pressures, and trade uncertainty—especially from U.S. tariffs—as influencing the decision. Meanwhile, south of the border, the U.S. Federal Reserve also held its rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% in a 9–2 vote following a two-day policy meeting. While only two governors dissented—the first time since 1993. Global Growth Expectations Dampened by Tariffs Gardner pointed to current tariff conditions as a key factor weighing on global economic momentum, projecting a modest slowdown in global growth to around 2.5% by the end of 2025. 'In the current tariff scenario, we expect GDP growth to stabilize in the second half of the year, and potentially rebound heading into 2026 and 2027.' Brianne Gardner, Senior Wealth Manager at Velocity Investment, Raymond James If trade tensions ease, that rebound could come sooner, with exports and household spending acting as growth drivers. Markets React Cautiously to BoC and U.S. Fed Rate decision For investors, the hold in rates has mixed implications. Higher rates tend to pressure stock valuations, especially in capital-intensive sectors, while lower rates typically support earnings growth and boost equity markets. 'When borrowing costs come down, businesses find it easier to grow and expand,' Gardner explained. 'That helps increase future earnings potential and lifts stock prices.' She noted that dividend-paying sectors like utilities, telecom, and real estate stand to benefit most from easing rates—a trend reflected in the Canadian market's relative outperformance so far in 2025. Inflation Still a Watchpoint While inflation has come down from pandemic highs, Gardner said the Bank of Canada remains cautious, especially as core CPI ticked up to 1.9% in June, and 2.5% when excluding taxes. 'The market is currently pricing in two more cuts in 2025, but it all hinges on inflation,' she said. 'We're in a bit of a wait-and-see mode.' Brianne Gardner, Senior Wealth Manager at Velocity Investment, Raymond James When asked about her thoughts on the BOC's message, Gardner replied, 'The Fed's language shifted from describing economic activity as expanding at a 'solid pace' to 'moderating,' which some analysts view as a dovish sign.' She noted that markets are paying close attention to these linguistic changes, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains noncommittal ahead of the next rate decision in September. The next BoC and U.S. Fed rate decision will be set September 17. Trade Policy Driving Long-Term Risk Beyond monetary policy, Gardner warned that trade developments will likely dictate the pace and direction of future rate moves. While Canadian exports and consumer spending have recently stabilized, economic slack may persist well into 2026 if tariffs remain elevated. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is showing signs of resilience, with GDP growing at 3% annually in the April–June quarter—up from a contraction in Q1. 'There's a strong case for rate cuts in the U.S. as well,' said Gardner. 'We're seeing inflation contained and domestic demand softening, despite solid headline numbers.' She added that import surges driven by tariff concerns continue to distort quarterly data, and companies are still working to reposition supply chains accordingly. Rate Outlook As of mid-year, both central banks appear hesitant to move too quickly amid global uncertainty. For investors, the key takeaways are clear: monitor inflation data, track trade developments, and look to interest-sensitive sectors for potential upside. 'We're not out of the woods yet,' Gardner said. 'But there's opportunity ahead if you know where to look.' For more from Brianne Gardner, check out her 2025 companies of interest. Join the discussion: Find out what the Bullboards are saying at Stockhouse's stock forums and message boards. Stockhouse does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment decisions should be made based on your own research and consultation with a registered investment professional. The issuer is solely responsible for the accuracy of the information contained herein. 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GMA Network
01-08-2025
- Business
- GMA Network
BOC collects P84.5 billion, exceeds July 2025 target
Bureau of Customs (BoC) Commissioner Ariel Nepomuceno said Friday his office exceeded the collection target for the month of July 2025 after raising P84.5 billion. In a message to GMA News Online, Nepomuceno said, "We already exceeded the DBCC (Development Budget Coordination Committee) target for July. We're already P84.5 B. Target is P84.36 B. Had there been no suspension of work for 4.5 days last week, our collection surplus is higher." Nepomuceno said the collection was higher than June 2025 collection of P77.035 billion, adding that it was higher than July 2024 collection of P80.355 billion. "This is by far the highest collection in a month for this year. Year-on-year, growth is 5.15%, significantly higher than the 1.15% growth for the first semester. This despite the week-long work suspension," Nepomuceno said. At the start of his leadership, Nepomuceno vowed to enforce good governance in the agency, including meeting collection targets. The BOC remains aligned with the directive of President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. to professionalize government operations and intensify efforts against smuggling and revenue leakage, he said. Last year, the bureau collected P931.046 billion in revenues, higher than its 2023 collection of P874.166 billion. — VDV, GMA Integrated News
Yahoo
31-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's GDP shrinks in May, could avoid contraction in second quarter
By Promit Mukherjee OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada's Gross Domestic Product shrank 0.1% in May on a monthly basis as expected but is likely to regain the lost ground in June as some sectors rebound, data showed on Thursday. An advanced estimate showed GDP is likely to have expanded by 0.1% in June, and on an annualized basis it could also post growth of 0.1% for the second quarter, Statistics Canada said. That is in contrast to the more widely held expectation for a second-quarter contraction, and could change when the final June numbers are released next month. In May, the biggest hit to growth came from the retail trade sector which contracted 1.2%, StatsCan said, adding that activity across seven subsectors out of 12 shrank. Retail trade is part of the larger services-producing industries that contribute up to 75% of total GDP. Overall, output from the services-producing group was flat in May as the drop in retail trade was offset by real estate and transportation. Amongst goods-producing industries, which account for 25% of GDP, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector was the main laggard with activity shrinking 1% in the month. Manufacturing expanded 0.7% on a monthly basis, after a 1.8% decline in April, largely as a result of higher inventory accumulation, the statistics agency said. Canada's first quarter GDP expanded 2.2% on an annualized basis as exporters advanced their sales to the United States to beat a barrage of incoming tariffs. But as tariffs took effect from March, exports and industrial output took a hit. The Bank of Canada, after announcing that it would keep rates on hold at 2.75% on Wednesday, said that it expected the economy to contract by 1.5% in the second quarter due to a 25% drop in exports. StatsCan's forecast of even slim Q2 growth could take away the incentive for a rate cut in September, though data on inflation and job growth before the BoC's next meeting will be crucial. Economists expressed doubt on a prospective growth in the second quarter as the data is calculated based on expenditure and income of people, unlike monthly GDP which is based on industry output. "We will need to wait and see next month's quarterly GDP release to know whether the economy is really outperforming the Bank's expectations," Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets wrote in a note. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy for Desjardins Group noted that there was lingering uncertainty about trade policy and domestic headwinds, which will continue to weigh on activity, forcing the central bank to restart cutting rates by September. Money markets are betting around an 89% chance of the BoC holding rates on September 17, up three percentage points from before the GDP data was released. The Canadian dollar dropped 0.11% to 1.3842 to the U.S. dollar, or 72.24 U.S. cents. The U.S. and Canada are currently locked in negotiations to hash out a trade deal by Friday in a bid to reduce tariffs, but negotiators have admitted that it may not happen by the deadline.
