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Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms a strategic necessity
Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms a strategic necessity

Arab News

time8 hours ago

  • Business
  • Arab News

Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms a strategic necessity

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement, a landmark accord that ended the Bosnian War of 1992-1995 and brought a fragile peace to Bosnia-Herzegovina. On this significant occasion, I had the privilege of hosting a panel of experts in Dayton, Ohio — where the agreement was originally signed — that was titled 'Next Steps After Dayton? Getting to Constitutional Reform in BiH,' referring to Bosnia-Herzegovina. The panel, convened by the New Lines Institute, featured distinguished voices including former US Ambassador to Bosnia Michael Murphy; Ensar Eminovic, minister counselor at the Bosnia-Herzegovina Embassy in Washington; Dr. Miomir Zuzul, senior international policy adviser at Arnold & Porter; and Dr. Jasmin Mujanovic, author of the institute's recent report, 'Dayton Plus: A Policymaker's Guide to Constitutional Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina.' Together, we reflected on Dayton's legacy and the urgent need for reform to secure the country's future. The Dayton Agreement was a monumental achievement, halting a devastating conflict that claimed countless lives and displaced millions. It established a complex constitutional framework under Annex IV, dividing Bosnia-Herzegovina into two entities — the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska — alongside the self-governing Brcko District. However, while Dayton brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress. The agreement's rigid ethnic power-sharing mechanisms, designed to balance the interests of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, have fostered dysfunction, discrimination and stagnation. Today, Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitutional regime is a labyrinth of inefficiency. The tripartite presidency, entity vetoes and sectarian electoral rules exclude approximately 400,000 citizens — particularly those identifying as 'Others' (e.g., Jews, Roma or those who reject ethnic labels) — from meaningful political participation. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly struck down provisions of the constitution as discriminatory, a legal obligation the country is bound to address under its own laws, but progress remains stalled. This de facto constitutional crisis undermines Bosnia-Herzegovina's aspirations for EU and NATO membership, a goal that requires rational governance and accountability — outcomes the current system cannot deliver. The demographic reality in Bosnia-Herzegovina underscores the urgent need for reform. Since the 2013 census, which recorded a population of 3.5 million, estimates suggest that number has plummeted to under 2 million due to mass emigration, particularly among the youth. In Republika Srpska, claims of a 1.4 million population may mask a reality closer to 800,000. This exodus reflects a lack of hope in a system that denies citizens a stake in their future, perpetuating corruption and ethnic division over shared prosperity. Mujanovic outlined a clear case for reform. The current constitution promotes irrational governance, incentivizes sectarian maximalism and allows neighboring states to meddle in Bosnia-Herzegovina's affairs, heightening the risk of renewed conflict. Conversely, constitutional reform could foster accountable governance, ensure equal rights for all citizens and pave a credible path for Euro-Atlantic integration by 2040. The benefits are clear: a shift from zero-sum politics to a system that values individual rights over collective ethnic identities, reduces foreign interference and empowers Bosnia-Herzegovina to stand as a sovereign, democratic state. While the Dayton Agreement brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress Dr. Azeem Ibrahim However, the path to reform is fraught with challenges. Political elites, entrenched in the status quo, resist change, fearing a loss of power. The Office of the High Representative, with its expansive Bonn Powers, has intervened in the past — most notably during the 2022 Bosnia-Herzegovina election — but such external impositions are not sustainable. True reform must come from within, supported by international partners like the US and the EU, which have historically expected irrational systems to yield rational outcomes. This flawed premise has led to repeated policy failures in Bosnia-Herzegovina, as our report notes, unless accompanied by sustained international pressure. 'Dayton Plus' proposes a model for limited constitutional reform that balances pragmatism with ambition. It suggests a single, non-ethnically designated president with ceremonial powers, elected through a two-round system to encourage moderate outcomes. Executive authority would shift to the Council of Ministers, with a redefined entity veto mechanism to prevent abuse. Unicameral legislatures at all levels, caucus-based vital national interest protections and electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting aim to dismantle the winner-takes-all mentality. These changes would not overhaul Bosnia-Herzegovina's structure entirely but would normalize constitutional reform as a routine democratic process, building momentum for future progress. Today, that reform is not just necessary — it is achievable. The original Dayton Agreement proved that, with political will, even the most intractable conflicts can be resolved. Today, the task of amending Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitution in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings is far less daunting than ending a war in 1995. What is needed now is the same determination, coupled with imagination, to chart a new course for Bosnia-Herzegovina. As we look to the future, the Euro-Atlantic community must recommit to Bosnia-Herzegovina's stability. The Western Balkans remains a geopolitical flashpoint, with Russia and China exploiting governance weaknesses to sow discord. Constitutional reform in Bosnia-Herzegovina is not just a domestic imperative but a strategic necessity for regional security. By supporting it in this endeavor, the US and the EU can help complete the vision of a Europe whole and free — a vision Dayton began but cannot fulfill without change. The 30th anniversary of Dayton is a moment to celebrate peace, but also to act. Bosnia-Herzegovina's citizens deserve a system that reflects their shared hopes, not their divided past. Let us work together to make that vision a reality. *Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim

Three live Northern Ireland internationals in seven days on BBC Sport NI
Three live Northern Ireland internationals in seven days on BBC Sport NI

BBC News

time9 hours ago

  • General
  • BBC News

Three live Northern Ireland internationals in seven days on BBC Sport NI

The Northern Ireland women and men's teams are in action with three games in seven days and BBC Sport NI will have live coverage of all three. Following a setback against Poland last Friday, Tanya Oxtoby's side face a crucial final Nations League group game away to Bosnia-Herzegovina tomorrow evening (Tuesday 03 June). Avoiding defeat in the showdown in Zenica would mean Northern Ireland finish second in the group and secure a promotion play-off place. The game will be live on BBC iPlayer with kick-off at 6pm. The Northern Ireland men's team play two friendly internationals in preparation for their World Cup qualifiers in the autumn. They travel away to face Denmark on Saturday 7 June (kick-off 6pm) before hosting Iceland at home on Tuesday 10 June (kick-off 7.45pm) at the National Stadium at Windsor Park. Both games are live on BBC Two Northern Ireland, BBC iPlayer with live audio commentary on BBC Radio Ulster. KM2 Follow for more

What do Northern Ireland need in the Nations League?
What do Northern Ireland need in the Nations League?

BBC News

time17 hours ago

  • General
  • BBC News

What do Northern Ireland need in the Nations League?

Nations League Group B1: Bosnia & Herzegovina v Northern IrelandVenue: FF BH Football Training Centre, Zenica Date: Tuesday, 3 June Kick-off: 18:00 BSTCoverage: Watch live on BBC iPlayer and follow live text commentary & in-play clips on the BBC Sport website Northern Ireland's hopes of automatic promotion to League A in the Nations League came to an end after Friday's 4-0 defeat by Poland. However, despite the heavy loss in Belfast, they still have a shot at winning promotion from League B for the first time. They take on Bosnia-Herzegovina in a showdown for second place in Group B1 on Tuesday. BBC Sport takes a look at what is at stake in Zenica. How things stand Here's a look at how things stand in Group B1 in the Nations League. With their win in Belfast, Euro 2025-bound Poland secured an automatic return to League A at the first time of asking. That leaves Northern Ireland and Bosnia-Herzegovina in a shootout on Tuesday to determine who will secure the promotion play-off spot in the group books a promotion play-off with a third-placed team in League means a relegation play-off against a League C side in the can still finish on seven points, but due to their head-to-head record against Northern Ireland (something we will get into in a moment) they cannot move past Tanya Oxtoby's side into second place. What do Northern Ireland need? Northern Ireland's fate is still in their own hands heading into the final is largely down to their dramatic 3-2 win over the Bosnians at Inver Park in short, avoiding defeat in Zenica would be enough to secure second place and not bring any further permutations into if Tanya Oxtoby's side were to lose on Tuesday, then we start moving down the checklist of tiebreakers. While in other competitions it is goal difference that splits the sides, in the Nations League there is different criteria. If teams are level on points, the first determining factor is the number of points in the matches between the sides. In the event Bosnia-Herzegovina win, then it would be a victory apiece and goal difference in the two matches would be the determining the Bosnians were to win by a two-goal margin or more then they would leapfrog Northern Ireland. If things are still level after that, it comes down to goals scored in the two the unlikely event the two sides cannot be separated at this point, which would only occur with a 3-2 win by the hosts, then overall goal difference in all six matches comes into currently hold the advantage here on minus three, one better off than Northern we said, the cleanest outcome is Northern Ireland win or draw on Tuesday, but the Nations League is known for its drama and there will be plenty of tension in the game.

NI 'have to bounce back' against Bosnia
NI 'have to bounce back' against Bosnia

BBC News

time2 days ago

  • General
  • BBC News

NI 'have to bounce back' against Bosnia

Northern Ireland midfielder Joely Andrews said that her side "have to bounce back" against Bosnia-Herzegovina on Tuesday after their disappointing Women's Nations League defeat against Seaview on Friday night Tanya Oxtoby's side suffered a 4-0 loss against Poland, who secured automatic promotion to League A with the win in north are second in the group and will secure that spot and a place in the promotion play-offs if they avoid defeat in Zenica on Tuesday, which Andrews says has to be their aim."If we finish a place higher in this group [NI finished third in their previous Nations League campaign] it will be progress," she said."We are looking for a good performance and ultimately to get three points on Tuesday."Us and Bosnia know each other inside out, we've played each other a few times so it will be tough, but we need to be hard to break down but good on the ball and create chances."The Hearts midfielder added that while Friday night's defeat at Seaview "hurt", their spirited end to the game when they almost scored a consolation goal will give them confidence as they move onto Tuesday's crucial game."We weren't good enough in the first half and there were bits of the game plan we didn't execute but as players we take responsibility for that," she continued."The positive thing is in the second half we got a bit more control and we could create some more chances."

'We get smacked in the face and rebound'
'We get smacked in the face and rebound'

BBC News

time3 days ago

  • General
  • BBC News

'We get smacked in the face and rebound'

"We get smacked in the face a little bit and rebound really well."Head coach Tanya Oxtoby perfectly summed up Northern Ireland's Nations League campaign after Friday's 4-0 home defeat by Poland. Looking at their five games so far, two things stand out: errors and fails to exist without the other and while the former has plagued them and cost them in quite a few games, the latter has offered hope for the at errors first; the two goals conceded in defeat in Gdansk in their first game were the win against Bosnia-Herzegovina, Emina Ekic's solo run and finish came after the Northern Ireland defence stood off less said about Mihaela Ciolacu's equaliser in the 1-1 draw in Romania the better, as she had an easy finish after Ellie Mason and Rachel Dugdale left the clearance to each other and both missed on Friday night, the clinical Ewa Pajor burst between two defenders to prod home the opener, Jackie Burns gifted her a second and Northern Ireland failed to clear their lines to allow Paulina Tomasiak to score a third before Oxtoby's side have shown an ability to react to didn't crumble in Gdansk, they fought back to beat Bosnia and after the frustration in Bucharest, they produced their best display of the campaign to beat Romania 1-0 at hopes her side can once again dip into their reserves of resilience in Tuesday's crucial game against Bosnia in Zenica, where a win would hand NI a promotion play-off place."I don't have any doubt in my mind we'll perform on Tuesday," she said. 'They're not all the same mistakes' The Australian was keen not to dwell too much on the theme of errors throughout the campaign as "they're not all the same mistakes"."It's hard to lob them all into one category, there are individual errors and there are group errors the whole campaign, it's about learning from them," she of the issues for the manager that may be a cause of the high volume of mistakes is an unsettled backline, with chopping and changing occurring in all five games so Rafferty has missed the last three games through injury, her absence keenly felt in the heart of defence, with Oxtoby conceding the Rangers defender is "50-50" to be fit for the game in a dearth of natural centre-backs to fit her system, Nadene Caldwell has played there recently, although naturally a midfielder, whilst Linfield youngster Abi Sweetlove was given her debut at Seaview against Poland, but like the rest of the defence, she struggled against Pajor, who scored two and set up the other two goals. Northern Ireland must 'park' Poland defeat After the dissection of Friday night's mistakes, focus will quickly turn to Tuesday in Zenica, where a win would help Northern Ireland finish second and secure that all important play-off place and mark an improvement on their last Nations League Simone Magill said NI are "hurting" after the Poland loss, but she repeatedly spoke of the need to "park" the result."We were very clear at the start of this campaign about what we wanted to go after, and that's still very much in our hands," she said. "Despite Friday's result that doesn't change for us. We have been on quite a journey, and this is where we want to be. "We want to be back in the mix competing off the back of the last Euros, we didn't want that to be a one off and if we get the result we want, we are right back in the mix."

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