Latest news with #Bosniaks
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Dodik Is Pushing Bosnia to the Breaking Point—Again
When armed police prevented the arrest of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik on April 23, it marked the latest escalation in a growing crisis afflicting Bosnia, one that some warn could be an existential test for the fragile country. How could police themselves prevent an arrest? The answer lies in Bosnia and Herzegovina's notoriously complicated governing system. The security forces trying to arrest Dodik were from the central state police, SIPA, while those protecting him were from the Republika Srpska, or RS, one of two highly autonomous 'entities' created by the 1995 Dayton Agreement that brought the country's bloody four-year war to a close. The RS is a Serb-dominated region of which Dodik serves as president. The other entity, confusingly named the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is dominated by ethnic Bosniaks and Croats. Despite its complexity and deep flaws, the Dayton system, with subsequent amendments, has persisted for three decades. Arguably, it has preserved peace at the price of functionality. Now Dodik, who has frequently suggested that the RS should secede from Bosnia, threatens to tear even this system to the ground, with potentially drastic consequences. The attempt to arrest him was the latest escalation in an ongoing struggle between Dodik on one hand and state institutions and the representative of the international community on the other. In February, the Serb strongman was sentenced to one year in prison and banned from politics for six years for defying the Office of the High Representative, or OHR, an international body tasked with overseeing the Dayton arrangement. In response, the RS passed laws barring state institutions from operating in the entity and approved a draft constitution proclaiming a right to self-determination, while also announcing plans to create a separate army and judiciary. To get more in-depth news and expert analysis on global affairs from WPR, sign up for our free Daily Review newsletter. Meanwhile, it separately emerged that Dodik and several political allies were under investigation for allegedly attacking Bosnia's constitutional order. His failure to appear for questioning on this case led to the arrest warrant being issued. However, Dodik has continued to move freely in the RS, heavily protected by RS anti-terrorism police, and has even traveled to Russia, Serbia and Israel, in further defiance of the Bosnian state. Dodik is an inveterate brinksman who has often sparred with both Bosnian state institutions and Western powers. In January 2025, the U.S. imposed sanctions on individuals and businesses connected to him. But while he has frequently threatened secession, he has never acted on it. And in pulling back from the brink, he has often extracted concessions where possible from the international community and the Bosnian state. But there is a sense that this time he has crossed a red line. 'It is not an exaggeration to say that this is the ultimate test of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a functional state—indeed, as a state at all,' says Adnan Huskic, a political scientist at the Sarajevo School of Science and Technology. 'Nothing will be the same after this, regardless of the outcome.' In Huskic's best-case scenario, state authorities—including SIPA, the prosecutor's office and the Bosnian courts—will be able to assert themselves to permanently remove from the political scene the man he calls 'the most significant spoiler' of Bosnia's European Union aspirations: 'an outspoken Kremlin agent, a general disruptor and an autocrat who has captured all institutions in Republika Srpska and turned the entity into a financial black hole over nearly 30 years of unchallenged rule.' In the 30 years since the war ended, Bosnia has hobbled along under the Dayton formula, never breaking free of the divisive legacy of the conflict, nor lapsing back into it. But he warns that any weakness shown by the Bosnian state and its EU supporters leading to watered-down charges, or a scenario in which Dodik continues to evade arrest by moving between the RS and friendly countries such as Serbia, Russia and Hungary, could further destabilize Bosnia and the region, encouraging secessionist and irridentist movements elsewhere, at a critical time for Europe's security architecture. Ivana Maric, a Bosnian political analyst, says that this is indeed an opportunity for Bosnian institutions to assert themselves by apprehending Dodik, rather than relying on the OHR, the EU or the U.S., to which domestic leaders have appealed during previous crises. She says it is inevitable that Dodik and his companions will be brought in for questioning. She emphasizes the farcical nature of the situation, with SIPA and other state institutions still operating in the RS, despite the supposed ban. Perhaps more importantly for Dodik, his physical and political room for maneuver are narrowing. He and his party have long retained significant popular support in the RS, and secession has wider appeal among Bosnian Serbs than many international figures would like to admit. He has been feted by populist nationalist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and broadly supported by Serbia. He also talks warmly of his meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. For many—probably most—Serbs in Bosnia, the RS is the protector of their rights and freedoms in a country in which they are outnumbered by Bosniaks. Dodik may also have seen a window of opportunity presented by the return to the White House of U.S. President Donald Trump, who looks more kindly on the likes of Orban and Putin, and is less enthusiastic about engagement with Europe. Yet on March 8, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Dodik of 'dangerous and destabilizing behavior' that is 'undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina's institutions and threatening its security and stability.' Closer to home, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, another populist strongman, has offered limited support, while Bosnian Croat leader Dragan Covic, who has regularly found common cause with Dodik, has condemned his actions and called on him to respect state institutions. Meanwhile, says Maric, the most vocal opposition comes not from Bosniak parties—which Dodik often uses as foils to shore up support, and vice versa—but rather from RS opposition parties, as within the RS, disquiet is rising. 'People are deeply unsettled,' says Aleksandar Trifunovic, a journalist and commentator based in Banja Luka, the entity's de facto capital. 'Since Dodik's conviction, tensions have risen sharply.' Trifunovic says a new draft RS Constitution that has been announced would, if adopted, 'effectively usher in a dictatorship—and that's putting it mildly.' Luka says Dodik often seeks to create chaos and project the illusion that he is in control as part of his strategy. 'But what makes this moment truly dangerous is that he is not in control,' he adds. 'Not of the situation, nor of its possible outcomes.' Trifunovic says that even Dodik himself does not know his next move. But external actors—namely, the U.S. and EU—are distracted, if they have not given up on the country altogether. 'The international community has for decades now had only one real expectation from Bosnia and Herzegovina: don't start another war. That's it,' he says. 'It's clear that a society which, 30 years after the war, has failed to move toward the European Union—a society trapped in perpetual conflict and one that continues to elect politicians who thrive on division and exclusion—no longer interests anyone.' In these circumstances, one cannot rule out further escalation. Yet in the 30 years since the war ended, Bosnia has hobbled along under the Dayton formula, never breaking free of the divisive legacy of the conflict, nor lapsing back into it. 'The curiosity of Bosnia and Herzegovina is that we have problems that are presented as unsolvable, crises that look like a war will break out tomorrow, conflicts after which you would think that there is no way for these parties and politicians to sit down at the same table again,' says Maric. 'And then everything is solved or forgotten overnight, and everyone pretends that nothing happened.' The current crisis shines a harsh light on the reality that Bosnia's political classes of all ethnicities, as well as the country's international guardians, have failed to both overcome the grim legacy of the war, and reform or replace the structures put in place to end it. After 30 years, what are the chances of them doing so now? 'Bosnia is a persistent problem that constantly threatens to boil over, but never seems to explode,' says James Ker-Lindsay, an academic focusing on Southeast Europe. 'With so many other immediate crises on the agenda, there's just no sense that this is an immediate problem that requires high-level political bandwidth.' With international officials having all but given up, and repeated attempts at internationally brokered reform having stalled, Ker-Lindsay says the country is 'stuck in deep political deadlock.' Those predicting Bosnia's imminent collapse have been proven wrong repeatedly over the past three decades. But this crisis need not be terminal to do real damage to Bosnia, the region and Europe as a whole. Andrew MacDowall is an independent consultant and writer. He is the founding director of the strategic consultancy Toros Advisory and has written extensively for publications including the Financial Times, The Guardian and Politico Europe. The post Dodik Is Pushing Bosnia to the Breaking Point—Again appeared first on World Politics Review.
Euronews
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
Croatia is pushing for Bosnia's EU membership, PM Plenković tells Euronews
ADVERTISEMENT In an exclusive interview with Euronews, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković voiced strong support for Bosnia and Herzegovina's accession to the European Union, while also expressing concern over ongoing political instability in the region. Plenković emphasised that EU enlargement should be a strategic priority, particularly in the Western Balkans. Highlighting Bosnia's importance, he said: "We as Croatia would very much like to see that Bosnia and Herzegovina as our immediate neighbour, a country where Croats are constituent and people with equal rights with Bosniaks and Serbs should towards the dynamics that other countries of the region have and we want to help them." Bosnia has long aspired to join the European Union, but progress has been hindered by internal divisions between the three main ethnic groups — Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats — and a complex political structure created by the 1995 Dayton Agreement, which ended the Bosnian War. The country is divided into two entities or main administrative units: the Bosniak-Croat majority Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) with an umbrella state-level government in Sarajevo. This, and further administrative divisions, have created a system often described as the world's most complex democracy, which remains heavily reliant on consensus by all three main ethnic groups. Plenković expressed particular concern about secessionist rhetoric and actions coming from the RS, led by nationalist Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. "We would very much like that Bosnia and Herzegovina shifts from potential instability. And these tendencies of secession when it comes to the Republika Srpska to a more harmonious and functional situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina where the EU path and reforms which are beneficial to citizens both in economic and social terms are implemented," Plenković explained. He warned that delays in EU integration could allow other global powers to expand their influence in the region. "The more slower the process is, the more influence of other global actors in the region we have, whether it's Russia, whether it is China, whether is some other countries," Plenković explained. "And therefore we are advocating a structured and dynamic process." Plenković wants the issue of Bosnia's EU membership — and the broader future of the Western Balkans — to be on the agenda of the June European Council meeting.
Observer
23-04-2025
- Politics
- Observer
Bosnia's peace teeters as Dodik defies authority
The recent sentencing of Milorad Dodik, the leader of Republika Srpska (RS), to a year in prison and a six-year ban from public office has seriously shaken Bosnia's already fragile political system. A seasoned provocateur, Dodik has built his career on defying state institutions and pushing for secession. For more than two decades, he has chipped away at Bosnia's tenuous postwar consensus. Though his legal defeat might seem like a win for the rule of law, it could ultimately deepen the instability that has long haunted the country's peace. Since the verdict, Dodik has disregarded summonses, travelled to Serbia and Israel, and cheekily challenged the authorities to arrest him - and this has compelled Bosnia's state court to put out an international warrant. His defiance could spark armed fighting between loyalist militias and state police, further fuelling concerns of renewed conflict and violence. At the heart of Bosnia's dysfunction is the Dayton Peace Accord, a 1995 agreement that ended the brutal Yugoslav wars. Dayton was required to end the war but it inversely consolidated ethnic divides by establishing a zero-sum rivalry political culture for the nationalist elites. Bosnia was divided into two autonomously ruled entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which accommodated the majority of Bosniaks and Croats, and Republika Srpska (RS). This framework, intended to maintain peace, has rather promoted a political culture that prizes discord over consensus. Dodik has mastered this regime. Once viewed as a reformer in the post-Dayton era, he has transformed into a nationalist demagogue, regularly taunting Sarajevo and the West. His defiance of the Constitutional Court, his creation of parallel institutions in Republika Srpska, and his flirtation with secession have all undermined the legitimacy of Bosnia's central institutions. President of Republika Srpska (Serb Republic) Milorad Dodik waves as he attends Serb Republic national holiday. - Reuters file photo More alarmingly, Republika Srpska's National Assembly has now adopted a controversial draft constitution that directly challenges Bosnia's federal judiciary and security institutions - a brazen violation of the Dayton Agreement. Simultaneously, RS has passed laws barring state-level police and courts from operating on its territory, effectively declaring them illegitimate. Dodik's proposals to create an autonomous Republika Srpska army and border police mark a dangerous escalation. Though Bosnia's state court issued an international arrest warrant for him, Interpol remains inactive, and Dodik enjoys protection from allies like Hungary's Viktor Orbán, who has hinted at sending support to RS authorities. Geopolitical stakes have never been greater. Dodik's recent visit to Moscow amid mounting judicial pressure indicates that he remains a Kremlin tool meant to destabilise Bosnia, thwart Nato aspirations and decelerate European integration. His conviction has been loudly denounced as "political persecution" by Russia while Serbia's President Vučić walked a thin line - while avoiding outright confrontation with the West, offering Dodik rhetorical support only. The West's response to Dodik's provocations has been inconsistent. The United States has sanctioned him and had extremely strong condemnations, but the European Union's response has been much milder. But there are some signs of change: the EU has sent more EUFOR soldiers into Bosnia, and Austria and Germany have also imposed entry bans on Dodik and other RS officials. Brussels is now confronted with the choice of whether to support its rhetoric with tangible action - such as freezing assets on RS or increasing sanctions against its leadership. The cost of inaction is achingly clear. Republika Srpska street protests aren't just about loyalty to Dodik - they are manifestations of Bosnia's deep-seated vulnerabilities. Civic identity remains eclipsed by ethnic identity, leaving the Dayton system vulnerable to manipulation by nationalist elites. Beneath the political kabuki, there simmers a chronic crisis: government stalemate, economic stagnation and widespread despair. The promises of Dayton - peace, prosperity and European integration - remain largely unfulfilled, and for many Bosnians, they seem increasingly unrealistic. This crisis cannot be ignored. If the West is serious about preserving Bosnia's fragile peace, it must urgently reassess its strategy. The rule of law must be enforced without compromise. Dodik's conviction cannot be treated as a mere symbolic victory - it must be the beginning of a broader effort to isolate and sanction leaders who flout Bosnia's institutions. Ignoring this would embolden not only Dodik but also his foreign backers in Moscow and Budapest, who see Bosnia as a battleground for undermining Euro-Atlantic unity. While the Dayton framework was essential to ending the war, it has become a hindrance to good governance. Bosnia's constitutional structure needs reform. Redesigning this framework will be politically difficult, but it is necessary if the country is to break free from the deadlock that has paralysed its government for years. Simultaneously, political transformation must be paired with economic renewal.
Russia Today
27-03-2025
- Politics
- Russia Today
Interpol considering arrest warrants for Bosnian-Serb leaders
Interpol has reportedly issued international arrest warrants for the president and the parliament speaker of Republika Srpska - a Serb-majority region within Bosnia and Herzegovina - the Serbian 'Politika' newspaper reported on Thursday. According to the outlet, President Milorad Dodik and Speaker Nenad Stevandic have been accused of attacking the constitutional order and violating the Criminal Code of Bosnia and Herzegovina. While the arrest warrants have been distributed to Interpol member states by the organisation's Balkan office, they have not been approved by the Interpol General Secretariat, Politika noted. Following a brutal civil war Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided into two self-governing entities, the ethnically Serbian Republika Srpska and a federation run by Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) and Croats, under the US-brokered 1995 Dayton Agreement. The country is ruled by a three-member presidency – a Bosniak, a Serb, and a Croat. Earlier this month, Bosnian prosecutors issued arrest warrants for Dodik, Stevandic as well as Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic, accusing them of launching an 'attack on the constitutional order' by enacting laws that restrict the operations of Bosnia's state-level judiciary and law enforcement agencies. A Sarajevo-based court sentenced Dodik to one year in prison last month for obstructing decisions made by Bosnia's constitutional court and defying the authority of international envoy, German national Christian Schmidt. READ MORE: Orban blasts conviction of Bosnian Serb leader Dodik has claimed that the charges against him are politically motivated and said he would reject the court's decision and prohibit the enforcement of its rulings on the territory of Republika Srpska. The cases against Dodik have also sparked a backlash in neighboring Serbia, whose Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin asserted that Belgrade would prevent the detention of Republika Srpska's top officials and described Sarajevo's moves as a 'continuous attempt at revenge' against Dodik and the Serbian people. Moscow has also denounced Dodik's conviction, calling it an 'absolutely political' decision by the Bosnia and Herzegovina judiciary based on a 'pseudo-law' pushed through by Schmidt. 'These actions could lead to destabilization,' Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned, stressing that such steps could have 'very negative consequences not just for Bosnia and Herzegovina, but for the Balkans as a whole.'
Euronews
12-03-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
China slams US tariffs: 'There are no winners in a trade war'
By Euronews The Bosnian Serb leader enacted laws to ban state-level security and judicial bodies in one part of the country's territory, following his controversial sentencing last Wednesday. ADVERTISEMENT The president of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Serb-majority entity of the Republika Srpska (RS), Milorad Dodik, has introduced new laws meant to ban the operation of state-level security and judicial institutions in what comprises about half of the Western Balkan country's territory. The acts, which were previously adopted by the RS' National Assembly, came in response to the first-instance verdict by the state-level Court of BiH against Dodik issued last Wednesday, causing a major political crisis in the EU membership hopeful. The Sarajevo-based court sentenced the Bosnian Serb leader to one year in prison and barred him from politics for six years for going against the decisions of the international community's peace envoy, German diplomat Christian Schmidt, which constitutes a criminal act. The verdict is not final, and Dodik can appeal it. In Bosnia, the High Representative acts as the chief arbiter in high-profile disputes and the key figure overseeing the implementation of the Dayton Agreement, signed in 1995 to stop the war in the country. The agreement brought about the end of the war between the country's three main ethnic groups — Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats — that began in 1992 during the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia, deemed as the bloodiest conflict on European soil since World War II. The peace deal, parts of which act as the country's constitution, split the country into two main administrative units, or entities: the Serb-majority RS and the Bosniak-Croat Federation of BiH (FBiH), partially overseen by an umbrella state-level government. Meant to appease the former belligerents, it created a complicated system of checks and balances, said to be the world's most complex democracy. On Thursday, Dodik — who has rejected the verdict as instigated by Bosniaks, as well as High Representative Schmidt's legitimacy — asked the Bosnian citizens for calm, blaming Bosniak politicians for what he said was warmongering and 'revenge against the Serbs'. 'They believe that they should eliminate in the political sense every Serb who does not correspond to their political projections,' Dodik added. Neighbouring Serbia's President Aleksandar Vučić said he had insisted Dodik go to the capital for talks after the verdict, but there was no response 'apart from a barrage of insults'. 'I have always considered that any conversation is better, more beneficial and more important than any display of strength, power and force,' Vučić emphasised. Meanwhile, one of the members of the three-way Bosnian Presidency, Denis Bećirović, said that he has filed a request with the country's Constitutional Court over the constitutionality of the latest set of laws. Apart from Bećirović, the speakers of the state-level Parliamentary Assembly's two chambers, Denis Zvizdić and Kemal Ademović, stated they would do the same.
