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New York Times
5 days ago
- Business
- New York Times
Raptors could make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo, but does it make sense?
The Indiana Pacers finished 11th in the Eastern Conference in 2022-23, winning 35 games. They appeared to be on an upward trajectory with Tyrese Haliburton looking like a potential superstar, Bennedict Mathurin coming off a nice rookie year and another lottery pick coming their way. Optimists might have predicted the Pacers could squeeze into the playoffs the next year. Instead, they made the conference finals in 2023-24 before advancing to the NBA Finals this season. They closed the book on their rebuilding stage when they traded for Pascal Siakam in January 2024. Advertisement Whoa, hey, the Toronto Raptors, who traded Siakam to the Pacers, finished 11th in the East this year, winning 30 games. They might not be as flush with young talent as those Pacers were, but they already made their equivalent of the Siakam trade when they acquired Brandon Ingram in February. (Both forwards were acquired at a discount because they were pending free agents.) Members of the front office have taken pains to avoid saying the rebuild is over, but the Ingram move is evidence that they are no longer slow-playing things. None of next year's projected starting five are on their rookie-scale contracts. When Giannis Antetokounmpo is mentioned as a trade candidate, it is tempting to say the Raptors aren't ready to make that push. However, they are more ready to do it from a financial standpoint than the Pacers were then, if not as convincing of a potential contender as Indiana was then. (The Pacers, again, were not super convincing in that respect.) The Eastern Conference's turbulence makes the future similar to a rearview mirror: Making a legitimate run, maybe even one to the NBA Finals, is closer than it might appear. Over the weekend, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on the Hoop Collective podcast that the Raptors were looking for a 'big fish' in the offseason. Additionally, the Toronto Star mentioned there was 'mutual interest' between the Raptors and Antetokounmpo, with the wild card being the cost. The 'mutual interest' bit isn't new. Before we get into that, let's be clear: Antetokounmpo hasn't asked for a trade out of Milwaukee. There are reasons the Bucks might be better off moving him, and there are reasons Antetokounmpo might want to leave the only franchise he has ever played for, but anything beyond that is speculation for now. Antetokounmpo turns 31 in December and has finished in the top four in MVP voting in seven straight seasons. Of course, the Raptors would do their due diligence should he become available. Albeit with a different core of players, the Raptors were involved in trade talks for Kevin Durant in 2022 and Damian Lillard in 2023. Advertisement Additionally, Antetokounmpo is of Nigerian descent and holds Nigerian citizenship. Raptors president Masai Ujiri was raised in Nigeria, and both participated in the first NBA Africa Game in 2015. The pair has a good relationship, with Ujiri having positioned the Raptors for a potential run at the Bucks star before Antetokounmpo signed an extension in December 2020. It stands to reason they would still be interested, even if you don't think the Raptors are close to contention. The latter point seems like more of a potential concern for Antetokounmpo, who should be able to wield some control over his destination should he want to move. Having an executive he thinks well of isn't likely enough to convince Antetokounmpo to come to Toronto on its own. (How about the city's thriving Greek community, which has always made its presence felt at Raptors games against the Bucks since Antetokounmpo entered the league in 2014? Toronto has more spanakopita options than Milwaukee, is all.) That part isn't in the Raptors' control, but they do have some things going for them in any negotiations. • They own all of their first-round picks, including this year's ninth pick. The Bucks don't have possession of their first-rounder until 2031, so they might want to triangulate a deal that gets them some of their picks back. But a few Raptors picks, especially the ones from seasons following Antetokounmpo's prime, would be valuable. • They have several young players on their rookie deals of varying interest, from Gradey Dick to Ja'Kobe Walter to Ochai Agbaji to Jamal Shead. The Raptors would want to keep some of those players to fill out their roster and surround Antetokounmpo with enough affordable talent, but all four of those guys look like back-end rotation players at the very least. • They have lots of matching salaries. All four of RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Ingram and Scottie Barnes will make more than $27 million next year, giving the Raptors many paths to match Antetokounmpo's $54.1 million salary — and enough to maybe take on undesirable contracts such as those of Kyle Kuzma ($42.8 million over two years) or Pat Connaughton ($9.4 million expiring deal). Those bigger Raptors deals run from two more years (Barrett) to five (Barnes), so the Bucks would have to be interested in those players. Opinions on those players and their contract values vary. The math could work easily enough, though. The Bucks, without their picks, don't need to worry about acquiring players who make them too good to tank, either. There is a compelling case for the Raptors not to make the trade. They don't have a player as good as Haliburton was when the Pacers made their big move. Barnes is a versatile and maybe transcendent defender, but he's a pass-first forward with an unproven jumper through four seasons. Ingram's skills compare well to those of Khris Middleton, Antetokounmpo's long-time running mate, but he is constantly injured. Quickley's movement shooting should play perfectly off Antetokounmpo, but he just finished his first season as a full-time starter, and he was injured for half the year. Advertisement The Raptors should assess this in the same way Antetokounmpo would: If the two-time MVP costs them Barnes, Barrett, multiple first-rounders and two of their interesting young players, how good would they be? Would they have the remaining resources to add to their roster after the trade? If remodelling their roster around Antetokounmpo requires another transaction cycle — an additional deadline and offseason — to become a true contender, does that line up with the star going deeper into his 30s? (Some might blanch at including Barnes in this deal, wondering what the point of a trade that moves him out is for the Raptors, who appear to be so far away from contending. However, given how much space is required to maximize Antetokounmpo and Barnes on offence, and given Raptors starting centre Jakob Poeltl is not Brook Lopez, it is tough to envision the Raptors scoring enough with both players to be a finals threat. I could be wrong here, but I believe any move for Antetokounmpo would also end up as a huge bet on Ingram and Quickley.) There are no easy answers here. Even assuming Antetokounmpo would be interested in Toronto and that his preference would limit the cost of a trade, the Raptors don't appear to be one move away from truly competing, even if they were reoriented around Antetokounmpo. They are not as deep with young talent as they were when they traded for Kawhi Leonard in 2018, maintaining enough salary and young players to make a trade for Marc Gasol at the deadline. Even the Pacers already had six players in this finals team's rotation before they traded for Siakam. This would likely be the riskiest trade in franchise history, with the potential of putting them in the same position as the Bucks face now in a few years, without the payoff. This is the Eastern Conference, though, and Ujiri, forever looking to swing hard, is still in charge of the Raptors. All things being equal, the Raptors wouldn't be able to make the Bucks the best offer. That's not how the NBA works, though. If Antetokounmpo and the Bucks choose divorce, the Raptors have a reasonable case to get involved, with enough trade ammunition to be competitive.
New York Times
23-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Raptors mailbag: Why the middle is fine and optimism is optional
It turns out a 53rd loss of the season wasn't enough to sap the energy out of Raptors fans. Despite the team falling from seventh to ninth in last week's draft lottery, you were still very generous with your questions in my call for a mailbag. As a result, we're breaking this up into two pieces. With this missive, I answered some broader questions in a lengthier fashion. Next week, I'll hit you with my version of a lightning round. Advertisement As always, I appreciate your participation. Let's get to it. (Some questions have been edited for length and clarity.) I need the perspective of a Reasonablist, because I'm feeling pretty excited about next season. The starters are all solid if unspectacular. I think Brandon Ingram should provide a nice boost to the offence if he can stay healthy. The majority of the roster are young players who have the potential to continue to develop and they should be able to add a solid prospect in the draft. They're not a serious contender, but it doesn't seem crazy to think they should make a push to make the playoffs and ideally avoid the Play-In. Am I just being too optimistic? — Jack S. I think you're being the right amount of optimistic. Two things you left out: the East potentially cratering and Scottie Barnes rebounding from a career-worst shooting season to be merely OK. It is easy enough to envision a world in which the Raptors are battling for the fifth/sixth seeds. I don't think you can bank on that, though. If you want some counters to your optimism, I've got you covered. • The 'if' is doing a lot of work in 'if he can stay healthy,' re: Ingram. I'd like to see Immanuel Quickley handle the load of a starting guard and play 60-70 games, too. • Beyond Quickley, there are no proven high-volume 3-point shooters on the roster. It would be nice for Gradey Dick to get there, but that is still a projection. • On that note, development is not linear for young players, and rookies rarely contribute meaningfully to winning teams. The last ninth selection to contribute two or more win shares in his rookie season? Frank Kaminsky (2015-16) with 3.3. Jakob Poeltl and Rui Hachimura got close. • The Raptors won zero games on the road against teams that finished in the top six of their conferences last year. Just a friendly reminder. Advertisement At this moment, I'm optimistic in the sense that you are, but it is hardly an open-and-shut case. Jamal Shead and Scottie Barnes were the only guys who played 65 or more games last year. Is that strictly correlated to the quest for ping-pong balls, or is it a potential cause for concern going forward? I'm a little worried this can turn into a negative loop cycle if our starters can't build chemistry together because one or more pieces are hurt, resulting in a slow start to the year. Then, once the season gets out of hand, we decide to rest them more often, leaving them with even less time to play together. — Matthew H. This year, 162 players played 65 or more games across the league. That is an average of 5.4 players per team. If not for the liberal resting, Ochai Agbaji (64 games played, five missed games due to 'rest'), RJ Barrett (58, eight) and Jakob Poeltl (57, eight) likely would have gotten there, making the Raptors more or less average. As mentioned, it is fair to have some health questions about Ingram, Quickley and Dick, the latter of whom has not made it through a complete NBA season without a prolonged midseason pause or season-ending injury. Other than that, though? The Raptors aren't especially brittle. They'll have the same considerations other teams have to face in balancing the need to accumulate wins and resting players during a too-long season, but I don't think they're particularly susceptible to that sort of loop. 1. There's a very strong undercurrent of sentiment that if you don't tank, you're getting stuck in the middle 2. The multi-year tanking teams have been shut mostly out of the top pick lately (due to the nature of, you know, it's a lottery). 3. Of the four teams left standing at this point, only one is led by a high draft pick. 4. When the Raptors won the title in 2019, it was after many years of pseudo-contending. We have seen this blueprint work. 5. The new CBA makes it even more difficult to keep teams together as younger players graduate to higher salaries. Given all of that, and while still acknowledging that you'd always rather have the best player available in the draft at No. 1 than any other number, isn't it pretty clear that being in the middle isn't 'being stuck' but rather the best strategy for sustaining success? OKC's collection of assets is an outlier. Philly pioneered that strategy and continues to fail hilariously. There are other examples (in the case of Houston, still too early to say) but the middle is a pretty decent place to be. — Anonymous U. There is no one way to build a sustainable winner. Sometimes, you pick one of the best offensive players of all time with the 41st pick, fill in the rest of the core with mid-lottery picks, trades and free agents, and end up winning at least one playoff series in six of seven seasons, with a championship, too. (Hi, Denver.) Other times, a historically great trade of older players, landing you two high lottery picks, propels you to 17 series wins in nine seasons (Boston). Golden State and Milwaukee drafted foundational players outside the top five, while also notably whiffing on opportunities near the top (James Wiseman and Jabari Parker, respectively). It is all about maximizing your chances to acquire great players, and there are many ways to do that. The most important parts of creating those opportunities: 1) find a centrepiece other players want to play with; 2) build an inviting, positive but serious culture; 3) draft well; 4) constantly reevaluate your team and players, knowing when it makes sense to push your chips in and when patience is necessary. Advertisement Theoretically, you can do those things successfully from any area of the standings. I'll note that Oklahoma City, Indiana and Minnesota also spent three consecutive years in the lottery before beginning their current playoff runs. The Pacers didn't willfully bottom out as the Thunder and Timberwolves did. They are the best current example of 'getting stuck in the middle' — they have won between 35* and 50 games 10 times in the last 11 seasons — and come out as a contender on the other side. (I'm sure some people still don't consider them contenders. They have made the conference finals two years in a row. They are, definitionally, a contender.) * — Indiana went 34-38 in the 72-game season in 2021-22 Of all your points, the new CBA is the most compelling reason to shift away from a multi-year rebuild. Will the Thunder be able to keep all three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren long-term? Will nailing several picks, both their own and those that they acquired in a trade, in a short span still result in them having to take apart a contender? And is that worse than the alternatives? I've got no great answers. I'm not sure the middle is the best place from which to build a contender. You are correct in saying it doesn't stop you from doing so, though. The Raptors have all their first-round picks and some interesting players. It's a reasonable place to sit, but it will still require a lot of luck and savvy to get to championship contention. What's this team's legit path to championship contention? Is there any hope in the next five years? — K.D. Look at the teams in the final four. Of course there is hope. I could list everything that needs to play out — most notably, Barnes has to round out his offensive game — but the most likely path to contention is via trade. The Quickley contract looks bad at the moment and the Ingram extension makes me nervous, but neither of them is likely to get to the Ben Simmons/Bradley Beal/Zach LaVine vortex of cap sheet killers. (I think the 25-percent max for Barnes is fine. I know some disagree. They're wrong.) They will have movable contracts for salary-matching purposes. The next thing they'll have to do is hit on some picks/young players. Dick, Ja'Kobe Walter, Shead, Jonathan Mogbo, Agbaji and Jonathan Mogbo have all shown flashes of being solid NBA players. Two of those guys will have to establish themselves as rotation-quality players or better. Advertisement As mentioned, the Raptors have all of their first-round picks. In other words, the Raptors have the necessary pieces for another consolidation trade (the Ingram trade was one, although highly discounted given the particulars). Indiana's move for Siakam is the most recent one to turn an OK team into a very good team. The Spurs' move for De'Aaron Fox comes to mind, although we haven't seen the fruit of that deal yet. The Raptors don't have the asset trove of the Rockets, Thunder, Spurs or Nets. They are not out of moves, either. I'm not saying they will pull it off with a Barnes-led (or co-led) version of this team, but it's not impossible to envision. It all starts with coaxing as much individual improvement as they can in the near-term from their young players, and having a season that gets them firmly pointed in the right direction — that is, if they don't make such a move before October. How long can we have this unsustainably low salary cap? The Raptors made solid moves to rebuild on the fly, and they have a solid starting five and good young draft picks and assets. And they're right up against the tax before the offseason even starts. Surely, the league can't want to kill all team building, all retention, and all fun — right? — Will D. I don't think the salary cap is unsustainably low. First of all, the league wants some teams to pay the tax, and even go over the aprons. The idea that teams go 'all in,' but for shorter windows, and then redistribute talent, is part of the NBA's plan for parity that seems to be working pretty well. I don't think the league imagines teams such as the Raptors will be paying the tax too often. However, this was their choice, and their build has not been normal. The Raptors have five players making more than next year's projected midlevel exception, and they acquired three of them when they were pending free agents. In that sense, they are outliers. The Raptors barely got to benefit from the excess value Quickley and Poeltl provided on their previous contracts. (Ingram is the third.) There is a reason my colleague John Hollinger calls it 'the Bird rights trap,' and the trap is especially 'trappy' when teams trade for pending free agents. Moreover, the cap is expected to rise by 10 percent annually over the next few years because of the new American television deals. (That is a mere projection, and that can change.) Year-over-year salaries on non-rookie contracts rise by, at most, eight percent within any given deal. Teams are at an advantage, so long as they limit their mistakes. There is one thing I would love to see to help teams out. If players earn the supermax with the teams that drafted them, they should be eligible to make that amount of money (30 percent of the cap versus 25 percent for players coming off their rookie deals, and 35 percent versus 30 for players coming off their rookie extensions). The teams should have to pay that extra money to the players, but the cap hit should be at the 'normal max.' That way, players are still rewarded for playing well and staying with the teams that drafted them, and teams aren't penalized for drafting too well. Ultimately, we want great cores to stick together, and giving teams that draft well a small advantage seems fair and noble to me. (Photo of Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
New York Times
20-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Submit your Raptors questions for Eric Koreen's offseason mailbag
The Toronto Raptors did not get lucky in the NBA Draft lottery, falling from their seventh slot to No. 9. That will help them as they play footsie with the luxury tax threshold. However, they will still be limited in their spending power this offseason, likely only able to use their own Bird rights and minimum salaries to fill out their roster. There is also the whole Scottie Barnes/Brandon Ingram/RJ Barrett swingman logjam, which is either a problem or a strength depending on how you feel about the players in question. With the Eastern Conference potentially opening up near the top, there is a path to the playoffs for the Raptors next year. How they go about this offseason could impact their ability to step into that void. With that in mind, fire away with questions for Raptors writer Eric Koreen to answer in a mailbag. Eric Koreen May 20, 2025 Updated 2:19 pm EDT
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Brandon Ingram Makes Feelings on Raptors Very Clear
The Toronto Raptors had a down season, but the franchise has a bright future. In addition to having a promising core of Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, and Gradey Dick, they also own a lottery pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. The Raptors acquired Ingram on Feb. 6 from the New Orleans Pelicans for Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, a 2026 first-round pick, and a 2031 second-rounder. Then, they signed the former Most Improved Player to a three-year, $120 million extension on Feb. 12. He now has a $41.9 million player option for 2027-28. Advertisement Ingram didn't play for Toronto this season due to an ankle injury, but he still had nothing but good things to say about the team on Monday, via Raptors Updates' Omer Osman. New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram reacts after making a 3-pointer against the Phoenix Suns at Smoothie King Center on Dec. 5, Lew-Imagn Images 'It's a first-class organization,' the 27-year-old said. "It teaches you how to be a professional; time management." 'What I didn't know is how much grit they had on the defensive end," he continued. "They set a standard for every team that comes in here; they know about the Toronto Raptors defense." The Raptors ranked 15th in the league with a 113.6 defensive rating this past season, via NBA Advanced Stats. Advertisement Ingram was drafted No. 2 overall out of Duke by the Los Angeles Lakers in 2016. On July 6, 2019, the Lakers traded him, Josh Hart, Lonzo Ball, the draft rights to De'Andre Hunter, two first-round picks, a first-round pick swap, and cash to the Pelicans for Anthony Davis. Ingram averaged 22.2 points on 46.5 percent shooting (37.4 percent 3 PT) with 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists across 18 games in the 2024-25 campaign. Related: Raptors Get Bad News After Bulls Loss Related: NBA Announces Exciting Bulls News Before Raptors Game
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Raptors' Masai Ujiri Reacts to Unexpected Scottie Barnes Message
The Toronto Raptors have the right ingredients to succeed in the near future. They have a young star in Scottie Barnes, an All-Star veteran in Brandon Ingram, and a lottery pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Additionally, they have a strong supporting cast in RJ Barrett (21.1 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (17.1 PPG), Jakob Poetl (14.5 PPG), and Gradey Dick (14.4 PPG). Other than Poetl (29), none of the aforementioned players are older than 27. Advertisement The Raptors (30-52) missed the playoffs this season and haven't made it since 2022, but Barnes thinks they can make it next season. Team President Masai Ujiri sounded off on his star player's claim on Tuesday, via Raptors Updates' Omer Osman. Feb 12, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) tries to get around San Antonio Spurs forward Jeremy Sochan (10) during the first half at Scotiabank Arena© John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images 'That's what Scottie said? I'll go with what Scottie says. He's the leader of the team,' he said. He also mentioned that he expects the team to "continue to grow" next season. Toronto won the 2019 NBA Finals on the back of Kawhi Leonard, who led the team with 30.5 points per game on 49 percent shooting (37.9 percent 3 PT) with 9.1 rebounds during the playoffs that season. However, the six-time All-Star walked in free agency, and the franchise hasn't returned to the mountaintop since. Advertisement Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, and Pascal Siakam led the Raptors to the second round the following season, losing to the Boston Celtics in seven games. They then went 27-45 the in 2021 before losing to the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2022 Western Conference Quartefinals, their most recent playoff appearance. However, Barnes won Rookie of the Year. Related: Brandon Ingram Sends Scottie Barnes Message After Raptors Season Related: Raptors GM Sends Clear Message Before NBA Draft
