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Fast Company
25-07-2025
- Business
- Fast Company
Polymarket is making a big bet on pop culture
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based 'prediction market' best known as a platform for betting on elections, sports, and geopolitical events, is on a winning streak. Earlier this month, the Department of Justice and Commodity Futures Trading Commission dropped investigations into whether Polymarket was allowing U.S. traders access to the platform despite lacking a proper license. This week, the platform announced that it will acquire QCX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, giving it fully legal access to the U.S. market. Meanwhile, Polymarket has increasingly become a venue for betting on an array of cultural and even meme-level current events—such as who will be the next editor of Vogue or whether the 'Coldplaygate' canoodlers will each get a divorce. In the process, Polymarket has ended up surprisingly well positioned to become a pop culture brand itself. There are similar prediction-market competitors, notably Kalshi (where you can also bet on possible Coldplaygate aftereffects), but Polymarket has increasingly become a shorthand fixture for the category, often cited by other media. The platform 'has become synonymous with understanding the probability of current events,' Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan claimed in a statement announcing the QCX acquisition, adding that increasingly mainstream audiences are using Polymarket 'to trade their opinions.' The statement noted that its users have bet some $6 billion on the platform so far in 2025. Founded in 2020, Polymarket uses blockchain technology that enables users to buy and sell 'shares' in possible outcomes of various events. But aside from actual bettor participation, Polymarket and other prediction markets have attracted attention as de facto gauges of probability, applicable to just about any future event, with commentators like popular economics blogger Tyler Cowen regularly dropping references to interesting Polymarket data points. In particular, the platform has attracted attention as a predictor of election results. (Polling guru and gambling expert Nate Silver has been an adviser to Polymarket since 2024.) Today there's an ever-shifting array of events to bet on, whose probability, according to those bets, is neatly quantified as an expression of market sentiment. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire before August? Polymarket says there's a 35% chance. Will Tesla launch a fully driverless, open-to-the-public Robotaxi service before August? The chance is 3%, according to Polymarket. How many times will Elon Musk tweet next week? What will be the highest-grossing movie of 2025? Will the existence of aliens be confirmed this year? (There's a 6% chance—the same odds as Trump getting the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.) New bets are introduced regularly by Polymarket, with suggestions and input from its users. Myriad regulations and laws govern gambling, as well as trading what are essentially options contracts, and until recently, Polymarket's regulatory standing has been murky. In 2022, it agreed to pay a $1.4 million penalty and restrict access to U.S. users. Many bettors in the U.S. seem to have found work-arounds, leading to the renewed scrutiny, but that appears to have been resolved. The next regulatory (and competitive) challenges may focus on sports betting, still heavily restricted in many states. (Rival Kalshi has recently partnered with popular trading app Robinhood on sports-prediction products.) Even so, the rise of Polymarket and its rivals speaks to how culturally accepted gambling has become. Strictly restricted and borderline taboo a decade or two ago, betting is now baked into sports discourse. And it's against that societal backdrop that Polymarket has in effect leaned into the role of marketizing watercooler topics. Its Coldplay-couple market involves a parlay—a gambling term for a multipart bet: For a bettor to win, both of the canoodlers (or their spouses) must announce their intention to divorce by the end of August. Polymarket currently pegs the chances of this happening at 16%. The platform's brand stance is notably more highfalutin, positioning prediction markets as 'more accurate than pundits' by gathering collective knowledge and perspectives into 'a single value that represents the market's view of an event's odds,' as a company statement puts it. 'Markets seek truth.' That said, prediction markets can miss their target—Polymarket gave Robert Francis Prevost only a 1% chance of becoming the new pope. But of course, that's an attraction for bettors: As with any form of gambling, the real money is in outsmarting the wisdom of the crowd. Polymarket is betting that this is part of the appeal that will bring prediction markets into the mainstream, and part of the cultural conversation on just about any topic. And lately, its odds are looking better than ever.
New York Post
24-07-2025
- Business
- New York Post
Prediction markets forecast socialist landslide for NYC mayor race
Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards for more information. Don't look now, but it appears the controversial candidate is separating himself in the New York City mayoral race. Democratic primary winner Zohran Mamdani is a massive favorite to triumph in the November election, being given a 72 percent chance at victory, according to prediction market Kalshi. Kalshi, a CFTC-licensed derivative market that takes wagers on real-life events, is taking money on this election, with $12,917,756 already wagered on the market as of Thursday morning. Mamdani, while favored, has seen his lead dwindle a bit. He got as high as 94.8 percent in April, so there is some potential that a different candidate could close the gap. 5 Mayor Eric Adams potentially could be replaced in the upcoming election. James Messerschmidt Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo — whom Mamdani defeated in the democratic primary — has a growing chance, according to the money market. He is at 15 percent, significantly higher than the less than two percent chance he had in May. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams has remained steady with a nine percent chance of victory come November. 5 The Post's front page from July 16, 2025. rfaraino 5 NYC Mayor Race Winner market shown on Kalshi. Kzlshi Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is an afterthought, with his odds coming in at just three percent. There had been rumors that Silwa would drop out of the race and one of Cuomo or Adams would take over the republican bid to be the NYC Mayor, but that hasn't happened as the election nears. 5 Democratic socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani, who won the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City. Getty Images 5 Andrew Cuomo speaking into a microphone. John Roca for NY Post The election is scheduled for Nov. 4, and around that time bets will be paid out on Kalshi, which is available in all 50 states. A $10 bet on Cuomo would pay out $67 ($57 profit) if he can overcome Mamdani, while a $10 bet on the favorite would pay out just $14. Why Trust New York Post Betting Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he's showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
New York Post
23-07-2025
- Business
- New York Post
DraftKings' prediction market double down is a bigger picture bet against California tribes
Sports betting giant DraftKings is rumored to be in the process of purchasing prediction market software Railbird, but this potential purchase reveals a much more complex game of 3-D chess being played. As DraftKings and FanDuel have unsuccessfully negotiated with the California Native American tribes, which control all gambling operations in the state, the betting operators are now exploring other options to gain access in the country's largest state (39 million people). 'Online sports betting operators have struggled to find a path into California. And if a path doesn't emerge, prediction markets will become increasingly appealing, especially if DraftKings and FanDuel feel like they're losing ground to Kalshi and Polymarket,' Chris Grove, a sports betting angel investor who is a managing partner at Acies Investments and has a stake in Underdog Fantasy, told The Post. Prediction markets, led by CFTC-licensed operators such as Robinhood, and Kalshi, are now selling futures contracts as if they were stocks on real-world events that are occurring. This new style of betting changes everything for the traditional betting operators, who previously had to buy a sports betting license from individual states at lofty costs. Prediction markets legally operate in 50 states, offer better prices, require just one federal license, and no taxes are raised back to the state. If things continue on under current regulations, online sports betting operators could be in some trouble. Kalshi, in particular, has secured some significant wins in the courts, notably winning Kalshi vs. CFTC in September 2024. This decision allowed prediction markets to offer such products legally as commodity derivatives, thereby helping them gain nationwide legality. They've been taking wagers on all things, including elections, whether the Astronomer CEO would resign after being caught with his alleged mistress at a Coldplay concert and even the projected critic review score of 'Happy Gilmore 2.' Smartphone displaying a Kalshi prediction market about who Trump will pardon in his first 100 days. Bloomberg via Getty Images It leaves DraftKings with one clear question to answer in its attempt to compete with this sleeping giant in the online sports betting world. 'It's largely a question of the legal and regulatory certainty surrounding prediction markets. A company like DraftKings is monitoring that question on a daily basis,' Grove told The Post. 'As the certainty improves, the appeal of prediction markets improves. If you ever got to a point where you had absolute regulatory and legal certainty, it's not unreasonable that prediction markets could effectively displace traditional sports betting.' California is undoubtedly a massive market that sportsbooks would love to offer their product in, but this business is all about control and the tribes want every bit of it and then some. As we saw in Florida, Hard Rock Bet has a monopoly on sports betting in the Sunshine State and they're doing pretty well. Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps California could opt for a similar model or build its own operation from scratch and hope to gain the trust of its clientele that way. We've seen this fail too. Gambet in Washington, D.C. was mostly a disaster as it attempted to run sports betting as a lottery system. That folded rather quickly and was replaced by FanDuel, as Gambet faced criticism for bad odds and clunky interface, among other problems. Sports betting has been highly profitable for states that charge a percentage on profits ranging between 10 and 51 percent. A gambling tax provision was even included in the 'Big Beautiful Bill' that would change how bettors file taxes at the end of the year. Aqua Caliente Tribal Chairman Richard Milanovich at Tribe owned Palm Springs Spa & Casino, September 1, 2000. Getty Images On Wednesday, three federally recognized California tribes — Blue Lake Rancheria, Mu-Wuk Indians and Chukchansi Indian — filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Robinhood for their operations in the state as a form of sports betting. It will be a landmark case with massive stakes both literally and figuratively. And DraftKings, not named in the lawsuit, is certain to be wrapped up in it all. Why Trust New York Post Betting Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he's showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Polymarket reportedly buys exchange to return to U.S.
Polymarket reportedly buys exchange to return to U.S. originally appeared on TheStreet. The crypto-based prediction market platform, Polymarket, is reportedly acquiring the QCX trading exchange to re-enter the U.S. market, Bloomberg reported on July 21. The latest report comes only days after the publication reported that the U.S. Department of Justice and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reportedly told Polymarket that they were closing their probe into the company. Launched in 2020, the New York City-headquartered Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market. It lets traders predict events as diverse as crypto prices, election results, inflation data, and box office numbers by paying with cryptocurrency. On June 6, Polymarket entered into a partnership with Elon Musk-owned X, one of the most popular social media platforms within crypto Polymarket has also released a statement, confirming the acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, for $112 million. The deal paves the way for it to return to the U.S. market as a regulated and compliant platform, it said. Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said, "Demand is greater than ever — not just in user growth and trading volume, but in how mainstream audiences are turning to Polymarket to separate signal from noise, bias, and speculation." He added, "Now, with the acquisition of QCEX, we are laying the foundation to bring Polymarket home — re-entering the US as a fully regulated and compliant platform that will allow Americans to trade their opinions." The crypto-based prediction market gained popularity during the 2024 presidential campaign in the U.S. as users bet millions of dollars on election results. Notably, it was around the same time that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) raided Coplan's penthouse in Manhattan. With Donald Trump winning the election, things have dramatically turned around for Polymarket, as with other crypto-based platforms. Polymarket reportedly buys exchange to return to U.S. first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 21, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 21, 2025, where it first appeared. Sign in to access your portfolio
