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Business Standard
a day ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Rupee snaps two-month rally; reverses early gains to end lower at 85.36/$
The Indian Rupee closed weaker for the fourth straight day on Friday, paring its early gains, even as the dollar weakened after US President Donald Trump's tariffs were reinstated. The domestic currency ended 6 paise lower at 85.36 against the US dollar, after closing at 85.52 on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. The currency also snapped two months of gains, as it weakened by over 1 per cent in May. The currency ends stronger ahead of the crucial GDP data scheduled to be released later today. A better-than-expected GDP figure could spark a sharp appreciation in the rupee, particularly amid easing crude oil prices and a weakening dollar, according to Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors. On Thursday, the US Court of Appeals granted the Trump administration's request to temporarily pause the trade court's ruling to block 'liberation day' tariffs. The US economy contracted in the March quarter, the first decline in three years. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.31 per cent at 99.58. With See-saw tariff policies continuing to keep investors on edge, the dollar index has fallen 8 per cent this year. The greenback is heading for its fifth straight monthly loss as traders braced for further bouts of uncertainty around trade and fiscal health, experts said. "We continue with the recommendation to sell dollars near 85.70/75 whenever we get the level, while we buy dollars on a cash basis," Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said. "We need to hold hedging imports unless we get a level lower than 85.00 on the dollar rupee pair."
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Business Standard
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Rupee slips for third straight day on Trump tariff ruling; ends at 85.52/$
The Indian Rupee weakened on Thursday but remained range-bound near its opening losses, as the US dollar strengthened following a federal court's decision to block President Donald Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs. The domestic currency closed 16 paise weaker at 85.52 against the US dollar, after ending at 85.36 on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. The currency extended its fall to a third-straight day and is on course to end the month with a depreciation of 1.2 per cent. From a technical standpoint, the dollar-rupee pair remains in a consolidation zone with resistance near 85.70-85.90 levels and strong support of 84.90-85.10 levels, according to Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors. "A breach on either side could pave a sharp movement in that direction." A panel of three judges at the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan issued an order, siding with the view that Trump had wrongfully invoked an emergency law. This led to a strengthening of the dollar index, helping it climb back to the 100 level alongside a rally in the Wall Street equity futures contracts. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.13 per cent at 100.00. With See-saw tariff policies continuing to keep investors on edge, the dollar index has fallen 8 per cent this year. The Dollar also rose after the release of the latest FOMC minutes, which struck a notably cautious tone, according to Pabari. The dollar is expected to face resistance near the 101.50–102.00 zone, while immediate support lies around 99.50, he added. On the economic front, growth in India's industrial production fell to an eight-month low of 2.7 per cent in April from an upwardly revised figure of 3.94 per cent in March. Also Read The market is currently consolidating within a range and is expected to remain so, supported by steady capital inflows into the country and consistent net equity purchases by foreign portfolio investors, according to Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Indian Rupee extends decline to second day; ends slightly lower at 85.36/$
Indian Rupee pared early losses to close slightly weaker on Wednesday, extending its decline to a second day as a revival in the dollar weighed on sentiments. The domestic currency ended 2 paise weaker at 85.36 against the US dollar, after ending at 85.34 on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. The local unit opened 29 paise weaker at 85.63 against the US dollar against the greenback. The currency has depreciated about 1.2 per cent in the month so far, after two straight months of gains. The US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May from a near five-year low, driving global investors into dollar-denominated assets. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.01 per cent at 99.53. Further, the index is down over 8 per cent so far this year on US trade policy uncertainty and fiscal worries. However, long-term dollar weakness driven by rising fiscal deficit concerns, policy instability, rising uncertainty, and weak economic conditions is going to support the emerging markets, including the rupee, analysts said. Meanwhile, participants will also eye India's upcoming industrial and manufacturing production data. Strong surprise data could offer further support to the rupee, but a miss could cause downside risks, according to Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors. According to reports, the currency also faced month-end dollar demand from importers, dragging the rupee lower. Weak equity markets, muted foreign inflows, and a rebound in crude oil prices were adding pressure to the currency, Pabari said. Meanwhile, Indian equity indices ended Wednesday's choppy session in negative territory. The 30-share Sensex closed down by 239.31 points or 0.29 per cent at 81,312.32. The rupee's movement this week will be primarily influenced by foreign fund flows into secondary markets, with several key economic indicators on the horizon, including the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes, first-quarter GDP data, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities. "In the short term, the rupee is likely to trade within a range of 84.80 to 85.75." In commodities, crude oil prices advanced ahead of the OPEC+ committee meeting. Brent crude price was up 0.66 per cent to $64.51 per barrel, while WTI crude prices were 0.74 per cent higher at 61.34, as of 3:45 PM IST.
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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Rupee extends fall as dollar revives; opens 29 paise weaker at 85.63/$
Indian Rupee extended its losses for the second day on Wednesday as the dollar index staged a recovery, after better-than-expected US consumer confidence data. The domestic currency opened 29 paise weaker at 85.63 against the US dollar, after ending at 85.34 on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. The currency has depreciated by 1.4 per cent in the month so far, after two straight months of gains. Indian rupee fell yesterday before regaining composure and closing at 85.33 as exporters lined up orders to sell their receivables, which are within the costing, according to Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. Exporters should consider selling around the 85.50–85.60 level to hedge their receivables, Bhansali said. "Importers, on the other hand, may wait for the rate to fall below 85.00 before buying dollars for near-term hedging purposes." Track LIVE Stock Market Updates Here In cues for the day, all eyes will be on India's upcoming industrial and manufacturing production data. Strong surprise data could offer further support to the rupee, but a miss could cause downside risks, according to Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors. Weak equity markets, muted foreign inflows, and a rebound in crude oil prices were adding pressure to the currency, Pabari said. Meanwhile, the rise in the dollar was driven by Japan's potential cut in bond issuance, which triggered a spike in US Treasury yields. Further, the US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May from a near five-year low, driving global investors into dollar-denominated assets. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.27 per cent at 99.79. Further, the index is down over 8 per cent so far this year on US trade policy uncertainty and fiscal worries. However, long-term dollar weakness driven by rising fiscal deficit concerns, policy instability, rising uncertainty, and weak economic conditions is going to support the emerging markets, including the rupee, Pabari noted. In commodities, crude oil prices advanced ahead of an OPEC+ committee meeting. Brent crude price was up 0.62 per cent to $64.49 per barrel, while WTI crude prices were 0.64 per cent higher at 61.28, as of 9:15 AM IST.
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Business Standard
23-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Rupee sees steepest rise since Nov. 2022; ends 78 paise stronger at 85.22/$
The Indian rupee witnessed its sharpest single-day appreciation since November 2022 on Friday, buoyed by likely foreign inflows, a weaker US dollar, and softening crude oil prices. The domestic currency closed 78 paise stronger, settling at 85.22 against the US dollar, after ending at 86.00 on Thursday. During the session, it had briefly weakened to 86.04 before staging a 1.03 per cent gain, according to Bloomberg. Earlier in the week, the currency had breached the 86 mark for the first time in over a month. The rupee has depreciated 0.85 per cent so far this month. The Indian Rupee's Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) eased to 100.8, falling by 0.7 points from 101.5 in the previous month and down sharply from a recent high of 108.14, indicating that the rupee is now approaching a fair valuation, according to Amit Pabari, managing director of CR Forex Advisors. "This correction is expected to boost the export competitiveness of Indian goods, providing support to the currency amid global uncertainties." Attention now shifts to the Reserve Bank of India as the central bank is expected to transfer a surplus between ₹2.2 trillion and ₹3.1 trillion to the government as a dividend for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25). The US House on Thursday passed a sweeping tax bill that adds $3.8 trillion to the US debt over the next decade, worsening fiscal worries. Despite its recent strength, the Dollar Index is showing signs of fatigue as mounting US fiscal concerns weigh on sentiment, Pabari said. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.6 per cent at 99.36. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) could potentially continue selling due to a narrowing bond yield differential between Indian and US 10-year bonds, Pabari said. This narrowing spread – last seen in July 2004 – is turning India less attractive for carry trades, compounding rupee pressure. In commodities, crude oil prices continued to fall amid reports that OPEC+ is discussing a production increase for July. Brent crude price was down 0.20 per cent to $64.31 per barrel, while WTI crude prices were 0.21 per cent lower at 61.07, as of 3:40 PM IST.
