28-07-2025
Time for this unnecessary war to end
It was a war everyone saw coming. After weeks of provocations and inflammatory rhetoric across the Thai–Cambodian border since May 28, the failure to de-escalate tensions finally erupted into deadly border skirmishes. Despite diplomatic efforts, no fruitful progress was made. As diplomacy faltered, ultra-nationalism made inroads, and rhetoric gave way to border clashes beginning last Thursday.
The militaries on both sides now face mounting public pressure to defend their respective motherlands. In such a climate, a tit-for-tat escalation was almost inevitable. Talk of a ceasefire has yet to be translated into meaningful action. Thailand has agreed in principle, while Cambodia wants an immediate ceasefire, but no cessation of hostilities has occurred on the ground.
Beyond the battlefields, domestic challenges in both countries have further fueled the conflict. In Thailand, the Pheu Thai-led coalition is struggling to maintain stability. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's political future now hangs in the balance after the Constitutional Court suspended her from office following a leaked, deeply damaging phone conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.
Once seen as a diplomatic asset -- thanks to her father Thaksin's long-standing ties with Hun Sen -- that connection has turned into a liability for the Shinawatra family. Their private feuds have become a public liability that severs diplomatic channels.
In Cambodia, Hun Sen, though no longer prime minister, remains the country's power centre as he backs his son, Prime Minister Hun Manet, much to the chagrin of the ruling Cambodia People's Party's old and young apparatus. But the economic headwinds are more intense. Cambodia faces a potential 36% tariff hike from the United States, reduced from an earlier proposal of 49%. If Phnom Penh fails to secure a deal with the Trump administration by Friday, Hun Sen's legacy and Cambodia's growth prospects will be thrown into jeopardy.
Against this backdrop, President Donald Trump has phoned both Thai and Cambodian leaders, urging them to hold ceasefire talks; otherwise, ongoing trade negotiations with the US will be halted. Once again, Mr Trump is weaponising tariffs as diplomatic leverage, with his team hoping the ultimatum will bring an end to the fighting.
Since Cambodia's independence in 1953, Thailand has always regarded it as a close neighbour and an integral part of the Asean family. Thailand also played an important role in the peace process, nation-building and development through the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements and Cambodia's membership in Asean in 1999.
At the special private meeting of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) last week, the two countries brought their cases for all to see. For many council members, the speed and ferocity of the conflict -- given the relatively stable ties that followed the 2011 border clashes -- came as a big surprise. That period, particularly during the Prayut Chan-o-cha government, had been marked by cordial relations and personal rapport between leaders.
However, relations gradually turned sour after Pheu Thai returned to power in 2023. Initially, optimism prevailed. When Ms Paetongtarn assumed office in September 2024, it signalled a fresh chapter with Cambodia's new premier, Hun Manet. Both leaders, bolstered by the backing of domineering influential fathers, promised deeper ties. That hope vanished after their fallout over the leaked private phone call between Hun Sen and Ms Paetongtarn. Tensions rose further after Thaksin proposed cuts to the defence budget, arguing the military had consumed too much public funding.
Then came Thursday. According to Thai officials, Cambodian artillery shells struck civilian areas in Thailand's Surin province early that morning, hitting community areas and a hospital. The attacks killed more than a dozen villagers. The Thai military quickly retaliated with precision airstrikes on military targets by deploying F-16s to target military installations across the border.
Thailand's response was formally outlined by Ambassador Cherdchai Chaivaivid, its Permanent Representative to the UN, during the UNSC briefing. He emphasised that Thailand was the victim of Cambodia's "indiscriminate attacks" on civilians, and that its retaliation was defensive, proportionate, and limited to military targets. In a related move, Thailand submitted letters to the United Nations Children's Fund and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, urging them to condemn Cambodia's strikes that endangered civilian lives, especially children.
As Thai armed forces mobilise further, nationalist sentiment is intensifying. With over 130,000 civilians evacuated and artillery still falling on Surin and nearby provinces, a real ceasefire appears remote. Given the current public sentiment, the Thai military is unlikely to agree to any truce unless Cambodia halts all attacks on civilians and commits to negotiations in good faith.
At the global level, Cambodia utilised its diplomatic adroit skills to internationalise the conflict further. Phnom Penh made a pre-emptive request for a UN Security Council meeting within hours after launching its dawn assault. It was a calculated attempt to shift the blame to Thailand. Finally, the UNSC meeting was held and concluded without a resolution. Overall, the council members expressed concerns, but some of them deemed the armed clashes as not yet a threat to international peace and security. As such, the issue was neither placed on the UNSC agenda nor referred to the International Court of Justice for further action, as Cambodia had demanded.
While Thailand has consistently said it prefers bilateral resolution, it has not completely rejected third-party facilitation.
Asean Chair Malaysia, under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, has offered a potential path forward. Mr Anwar, seen as a neutral and principled actor, is well-positioned to serve as an honest broker who can create an environment in which Asean members can begin to mend ties.
As of this writing, Thai and Cambodian delegations were set to meet in Kuala Lumpur on Monday to negotiate a ceasefire under the Asean chair, as host and observer. It is hoped that the two sides will agree to return to the conditions that existed before May 2025. The ceasefire must also cover the protection of civilians, cultural heritage and humanitarian access. Most importantly, they have to adhere to international humanitarian law.
Another critical element is preventing and stopping information warfare against one another. The information operation, both offline and online, has already sown the seeds of mutual hostile feelings for generations to come.
In the longer term, the revival of existing bilateral mechanisms will be essential. These frameworks, which have been used in the past to ease tensions and foster cooperation, can help restore trust. But with blood already spilt, reconciliation will not be quick.
Ending this unnecessary war must now be at the top of the agenda. Both sides must ensure that such unwarranted armed conflict does not recur for the sake of the well-being of Thais and Cambodians.
