Latest news with #CarlWeinberg
Axios
5 days ago
- Business
- Axios
U.S. imports see largest plunge on record in April
U.S. goods imports plummeted in April, per data out Thursday, as President Trump's tariff policies rocked the global trade system. Why it matters: The decline is a sharp reversal of the front-loading effect the previous month, when firms raced to import stuff before the tariffs took hold. Zoom in: The monthly drop in imports is the largest on record, per the Commerce Department. Imports were still up from this time last year, however. The big picture: Trade with China fell to its lowest point since a historic pandemic shut the global economy. April imports from China, at $25.4 billion, were the lowest since March 2020 ($19.6 billion). And U.S. exports to the country also fell off a cliff to $8.2 billion — compared to $7.9 billion, as COVID-19 first hit the U.S. What they're saying: "It sure looks as though triple-digit tariff rates made a difference to trade flows, eh?" writes Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, in a note Thursday morning. The data is not really a sign of a weakening economy — unlike in the pandemic, companies stockpiled ahead of the tariff shock, and are now going to be drawing down elevated inventories of goods, he writes.
Sydney Morning Herald
6 days ago
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
ASX set for flat start, Wall Street drifts higher; $A jumps
US stocks are drifting on Wednesday following some potentially discouraging updates on the US economy. The S&P 500 was edging up by 0.2 per cent in afternoon trading, as momentum slowed following a big rally that had brought it back within 2.8 per cent of its all-time high. The Dow Jones was up 26 points, or 0.1 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.5 per cent higher. The Australian sharemarket is set to inch higher, with futures at 5.01am AEST pointing to a rise of 2 points at the open. The ASX rose by 0.9 per cent on Wednesday. The Australian dollar rose 0.6 per cent to 64.98 US cents at 5.19am AEST. In the bond market, Treasury yields fell following a pair of weaker-than-expected reports on the economy. One said that activity contracted for US retailers, finance companies and other businesses in the services industries last month, when economists were expecting to see growth. Businesses told the Institute for Supply Management in its survey that all the uncertainty created by tariffs is making it difficult for them to forecast and plan. A second report suggested US employers outside of the government hired far fewer workers last month than economists expected. The report from ADP said private employers hired just 37,000 more workers than they fired, down from the prior month's 60,000. That could bode ill for Friday's more comprehensive jobs report coming from the US Labor Department, which is one of Wall Street's most anticipated data releases each month. So far, the US job market has remained remarkably resilient despite years of high inflation and now the threat of President Donald Trump's high tariffs. But weakness there could undermine the rest of the economy. To be sure, ADP's report historically has not been a perfect predictor of what the US Labor Department's report will say. Loading 'Whether this report is accurate or not, traders and investors will read today's number as a dark result for trading today,' according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. 'This may be the tip of an iceberg, but it also could be a false start.'
The Age
6 days ago
- Business
- The Age
ASX set for flat start, Wall Street drifts higher; $A jumps
US stocks are drifting on Wednesday following some potentially discouraging updates on the US economy. The S&P 500 was edging up by 0.2 per cent in afternoon trading, as momentum slowed following a big rally that had brought it back within 2.8 per cent of its all-time high. The Dow Jones was up 26 points, or 0.1 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.5 per cent higher. The Australian sharemarket is set to inch higher, with futures at 5.01am AEST pointing to a rise of 2 points at the open. The ASX rose by 0.9 per cent on Wednesday. The Australian dollar rose 0.6 per cent to 64.98 US cents at 5.19am AEST. In the bond market, Treasury yields fell following a pair of weaker-than-expected reports on the economy. One said that activity contracted for US retailers, finance companies and other businesses in the services industries last month, when economists were expecting to see growth. Businesses told the Institute for Supply Management in its survey that all the uncertainty created by tariffs is making it difficult for them to forecast and plan. A second report suggested US employers outside of the government hired far fewer workers last month than economists expected. The report from ADP said private employers hired just 37,000 more workers than they fired, down from the prior month's 60,000. That could bode ill for Friday's more comprehensive jobs report coming from the US Labor Department, which is one of Wall Street's most anticipated data releases each month. So far, the US job market has remained remarkably resilient despite years of high inflation and now the threat of President Donald Trump's high tariffs. But weakness there could undermine the rest of the economy. To be sure, ADP's report historically has not been a perfect predictor of what the US Labor Department's report will say. Loading 'Whether this report is accurate or not, traders and investors will read today's number as a dark result for trading today,' according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. 'This may be the tip of an iceberg, but it also could be a false start.'
CBS News
16-05-2025
- Business
- CBS News
Consumer confidence falls to lowest level in 3 years amid inflation fears, U. of Michigan index shows
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. edged down in May for a fifth straight month as Americans increasingly worry that President Trump's trade war will worsen inflation. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's closely watched consumer sentiment index, released Friday, declined 2.7% on a monthly basis to 50.8, the lowest reading since July 2022. Since January, sentiment has tumbled nearly 30%, a sign Americans are worried about the economy and their financial prospects, according to economists. "These survey results suggest that consumer spending may be increasingly restrained by caution under the Trump economic agenda," Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at investor advisory firm High Frequency Economics, said in a research note. Weinberg added that the decline in confidence may cause Americans to hold back on purchasing big-ticket items until they have a clearer picture of what's happening in the economy. "Uncertainty usually foments a feeling in households that more saving is a good idea," he added. Less grim than it looks? Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that the U. of Michigan's initial survey likely failed to capture any improvement in sentiment from the U.S. and China agreeing to ease tariffs earlier this week. "[W]e increasingly suspect that the consumer surveys, and the Michigan survey in particular, are painting an unduly negative picture of the consumer outlook at present," Allen said in a report. "Headline retail sales eked out a further small gain in April, following a 1.7% jump in March, despite the recent plunge in confidence. Moreover, most near-real indicators of consumers' discretionary spending on services are holding up well." Trump in April slapped 145% tariffs on all imports from China, a move that effectively froze trade with the U.S.' third-largest trading partner in goods. But on Monday, the two countries said they agreed to lower U.S. tariffs to 30%, while China would cut its duties on U.S. exports to 10% from 125%. Separately, the U.S. earlier this month reached a trade deal with the United Kingdom, although trade experts said the agreement suggests high tariffs are set to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Mr. Trump on Friday said his administration will send letters that inform other nations of the tariff rates the U.S. will impose on imports. "[W]e have, at the same time, 150 countries that want to make a deal, but you're not able to see that many countries," Mr. Trump said during a Friday business roundtable between the U.S. and United Arab Emirates. Americans have largely taken a sour view about where the economy is headed in the wake of the Trump administration's imposition of huge import duties, which threaten to slow growth and push up prices. In recent weeks, the White House has pulled back on its most draconian policies, though average duties are still high by historical standards. In an April CBS News poll, 44% of Americans approved of Mr. Trump's handling of the economy, down from 51% on March 2.
CBS News
16-05-2025
- Business
- CBS News
Consumer confidence falls to lowest level in 3 years amid inflation fears, survey shows
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. edged down in May for a fifth straight month as Americans increasingly worry that President Trump's trade war will worsen inflation. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's closely watched consumer sentiment index, released Friday, declined 2.7% on a monthly basis to 50.8, the lowest reading since July 2022. Since January, sentiment has tumbled nearly 30%, a sign Americans are worried about the economy and their financial prospects, according to economists. "These survey results suggest that consumer spending may be increasingly restrained by caution under the Trump economic agenda," Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at investor advisory firm High Frequency Economics, said in a research note. Weinberg added that the decline in confidence may cause Americans to hold back on purchasing big-ticket items until they have a clearer picture of what's happening in the economy. "Uncertainty usually foments a feeling in households that more saving is a good idea," he added. Less grim than it looks? Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that the U. of Michigan's initial survey likely failed to capture any improvement in sentiment from the U.S. and China agreeing to ease tariffs earlier this week. "[W]e increasingly suspect that the consumer surveys, and the Michigan survey in particular, are painting an unduly negative picture of the consumer outlook at present," Allen said in a report. "Headline retail sales eked out a further small gain in April, following a 1.7% jump in March, despite the recent plunge in confidence. Moreover, most near-real indicators of consumers' discretionary spending on services are holding up well." Trump in April slapped 145% tariffs on all imports from China, a move that effectively froze trade with the U.S.' third-largest trading partner in goods. But on Monday, the two countries said they agreed to lower U.S. tariffs to 30%, while China would cut its duties on U.S. exports to 10% from 125%. Separately, the U.S. earlier this month reached a trade deal with the United Kingdom, although trade experts said the agreement suggests high tariffs are set to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Mr. Trump on Friday said his administration will send letters that inform other nations of the tariff rates the U.S. will impose on imports. "[W]e have, at the same time, 150 countries that want to make a deal, but you're not able to see that many countries," Mr. Trump said during a Friday business roundtable between the U.S. and United Arab Emirates. Americans have largely taken a sour view about where the economy is headed in the wake of the Trump administration's imposition of huge import duties, which threaten to slow growth and push up prices. In recent weeks, the White House has pulled back on its most draconian policies, though average duties are still high by historical standards. In an April CBS News poll, 44% of Americans approved of Mr. Trump's handling of the economy, down from 51% on March 2.
