Latest news with #Carmignac
Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
'US no longer a safe nation for investment': Why Carmignac chief economist thinks Trump's 'revenge tax' will backfire
Raphael Gallardo, chief economist at French asset manager Carmignac. warned that the United States is no longer a secure destination for foreign investors because of risks stemming from President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill, as reported by Bloomberg. Gallardo is the latest market commentator to speak about the deep concerns over Section 899 of the bill, a provision that would increase tax rates for individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US considers 'discriminatory'. Some have dubbed the measure a 'revenge tax'. During a briefing on the outlook for the second half of the year, Gallardo said, 'The United States is no longer a safe nation for investment.' Carmignac, which had about $39 billion under management at the end of 2024, titled its presentation ''From America First' to Global Financial Anarchy'. Gallardo believes that Trump's unpredictable decisions on trade, along with the concerns around his foreign policy and the rule of law are all prompting traditional allies of the US to reduce their dependence and ties to the world's biggest economy. 'Why de-risk? Because the United States has become a totally unreliable military ally and so, one has to secure supply chains, find new markets,' as reported by Bloomberg. According to Bloomberg data, the Wall Street consensus is that the tax provision would further decrease investors' confidence in US assets, which are already shaken by Trump's trade policies and America's deteriorating fiscal accounts. The tax provision could trigger a 5 per cent fall in the dollar and a 10 per cent selloff across equities, according to Allianz SE chief investment officer Ludovic Subran. Carmignac is diversifying asset allocations from the US to Europe, where Germany's historic fiscal reforms have given a boost to economic growth, reported Bloomberg. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has taken a series of measures to add weight to the country's military capacity, accelerate infrastructure spending and revive the economy through comprehensive corporate tax breaks. 'Trump managed to achieve what no one had managed before, and that's to make the Germans start to spend,' Gallardo said. Bloomberg reported that European equities have emerged as clear winners worldwide this year as concerns over the Trump administration's trade policies encourage investors to reduce holdings of US assets. At the end of May, eight of the world's 10 best-performing stock indexes were European. Carmignac handles a range of funds across equity, fixed income, diversified and alternative asset classes with different geographical focuses and target outcomes. It was among asset managers who predicted the rally in global shares last year, dismissing talk of a bubble in equity markets, as per Bloomberg
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Markets Are No Longer Safe for Investments, Carmignac Says
The US has ceased to be a secure destination for foreign investors because of risks stemming from President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill, according to Raphael Gallardo, chief economist at French asset manager Carmignac. Gallardo is the latest market commentator to voice deep concern about Section 899 of the bill. The provision would increase tax rates for individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems 'discriminatory,' prompting some to dub the measure the 'revenge tax.'
Bloomberg
22-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Yields Likely To Go Higher: Marie-Anne Allier
Carmignac Fund Manager of Fixed Income Marie-Anne Allier gives her outlook on yield. She speaks with Guy Johnson, Kriti Gupta and Anna Edwards on 'The Opening Trade.' (Source: Bloomberg)
Miami Herald
03-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Stocks rise for second week as tariff shock fades: Markets wrap
Wall Street's risk-on brigade pushed the S&P 500 to its longest winning streak in two decades, with scars from April's tariff shock healing on fresh signs of US-China diplomacy. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose more than 1% each on Friday, notching a second straight week of gains. A dollar index dropped. Treasuries slid, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield jumping over 10 basis points to 3.83%. Oil slipped as OPEC+ discussed making another major production increase. With demand for havens fading, gold suffered a second consecutive week of losses. A strong jobs report earlier showed a labor market that's cooling but remaining resilient. That calmed fears about the impact President Donald Trump's would have on the economy. Recent developments also indicate that trade tensions are easing between China and the US. 'We may have reached peak policy uncertainty,' said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac in Paris. 'There are talks ongoing, and Trump seems to have watered down some of his policies. If you add in that the earnings season has been fairly positive, the overall backdrop isn't that bad.' Despite the rally, some caution that the worst isn't over. US stocks may be in for another drop that will push gauges to bear market territory in the coming months, said Tom DeMark, a veteran technical strategist. Lawrence Creatura, a fund manager at PRSPCTV Capital LLC, added that it may be too soon to conclude how tariff news is affecting US companies. 'A lot of people - based on Liberation Day and the events since - have forecast economic Armageddon and every time economic Armageddon doesn't happen, it's good news,' Creatura said. 'Maybe it's just too early. A lot of the phenomenon that people fear haven't really had time to sink into the data yet.' He noted that companies are reporting earnings for a period ended March 31 while Trump announced tariffs on April 2. Earlier, China said it's assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US. A report also showed that China has started exempting some US goods from tariffs. Earnings On Friday, stocks shook off lackluster earnings from Apple Inc. and Inc. that came in Thursday after markets closed. Apple received at least two downgrades on Friday after its results reinforced concerns over tariffs and its growth potential. It shares fell 3.7%, bringing its year-to-date drop to 18%. Amazon, meanwhile, said it's bracing for a tougher business climate in the coming months. While it reported a decent first quarter on Thursday, it said operating profit in the current period would be weaker than Wall Street anticipated. Its shares ended the day lower. Some of the main moves in markets: Stocks The S&P 500 rose 1.5% as of 4:01 p.m. New York timeThe Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%The MSCI World Index rose 1.5% Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1305The British pound was unchanged at $1.3278The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 145.01 per dollar Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $96,975.61Ether was little changed at $1,839.07 Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 4.30%Germany's 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.53%Britain's 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.51% Commodities West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $58.48 a barrelSpot gold fell 0.2% to $3,233.16 an ounce With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Julien Ponthus, John Viljoen, Edward Bolingbroke and Lu Wang. Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Zawya
17-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Euro zone government bond yields rise before ECB policy meeting
Euro zone government bond yields rose on Thursday after falling the day before, with investors expecting the European Central Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points later in the session while focusing on possible clues about the rate path. Markets will want to see if the ECB maintains a reference to rates being restrictive, as such a phrase would signal that more policy easing remains the baseline. They will also be looking for any updates on the impact of trade barriers. Germany's 10-year yield, the euro area's benchmark, rose 5.5 basis points (bps) to 2.51% after falling 4 bps the day before. "The potential upward shock to growth of (German chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich) Merz's plan and the supply constraints of tariffs suggest the ECB should maintain rates in tight to neutral territories," said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. Germany's new coalition government recently unveiled economic and tax reforms aimed at bringing Europe's largest economy back to growth. "However, the reality is the pain induced by lower household and corporate confidence induced by (U.S. President Donald) Trump, and (White House trade adviser Peter) Navarro policies will be felt first," he added, arguing that such a backdrop calls for further steepening of the European yield curve. Trump said there was "big progress" in preliminary talks with a Japanese trade delegation in Washington about the barrage of tariffs he has imposed. Analysts expect the yield curve to steepen further, with long-term yields climbing while short-term rates stay linked to what markets anticipate from the ECB. Germany's 2-year yield, more sensitive to expectations for ECB policy rates, rose 5.5 bps to 1.80%. U.S. Treasury yields rose in London trade, with the benchmark 10-year yield up 3.5 bps after falling 4.5 bps the day before as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments stoked concerns about economic growth and inflation. Italian bond yields were up 2.5 bps at 3.72%, with the gap between Italian and German yields -- a market gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold Italian debt -- at 118 bps. Last week, credit rating agency S&P upgraded Italy's long-term ratings to "BBB+" from "BBB". Market pricing for the ECB rate path remained roughly unchanged this week as concerns about the adverse economic impact of U.S. tariffs stalled. Investors are pricing the ECB deposit rate at 1.68% by December, implying three rate cuts from the current 2.5% and about a 30% chance of a fourth easing move. (Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo, editing by Ed Osmond)
