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Yahoo
5 days ago
- Science
- Yahoo
Watch an asteroid the size of an aircraft carrier make a close pass of Earth on June 5
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. A potentially hazardous asteroid roughly the size of an aircraft carrier is due to pass within 2.8 million miles (3.5 million km) of Earth on June 5 and you can watch it happen live online. NASA and its partners have been tracking the potentially hazardous asteroid 2008 DG5 ever since its discovery in (you guessed it) 2008 by the Catalina Sky Survey. The Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) estimates it to have a diameter ranging between 1,049-2,296 ft (320-700 meters) - roughly the equivalent of the length of a Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier. The asteroid will make its closest approach to Earth at 7.59 p.m. ET (2359 GMT) on June 5, at which time it will pass 2,170,309 miles (3,492,787 kilometers) from our planet, over nine times the Earth-moon average orbital distance. At this range 2008 DG5 will be visible as a solitary point of light to powerful Earthbound telescopes. The Virtual Telescope Project will host a livestream of the flyby starting at 6 p.m. ET (2200 GMT) on June 5, featuring real-time views of 2008 DG5 captured by its suite of robotic telescopes. June 3 saw the project release an image of the asteroid captured from a distance of 2.2 million miles (3.6 million km) using the 17-inch PlaneWave telescope located in Manciano, Italy, as the asteroid cruised closer to Earth. 2008 DG5 can be picked out as a bright speck of light, with short star lines acting as a tell-tale sign of its movement against the static starfield beyond, created as the telescope tracked its position over a 120-second exposure. NASA classifies an asteroid as potentially hazardous based on a number of factors including its size and whether it will pass within 0.05 astronomical units of Earth - the equivalent of around 4,650,000 miles (7,480,000 km), according to the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Over 1,784 PHAs are being actively tracked by the CNEOS, none of which are predicted to strike Earth and cause widespread damage in the coming century.
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Earth safe from 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 'That's impact probability zero folks!'
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Time to breathe a sigh of relief. The asteroid that once posed the greatest impact risk to Earth in recorded history now has an effective 0% chance of striking our planet. The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth was reduced to zero thanks to new data collected on Sunday, Feb. 23. Discovered in Dec. 2024, 2024 YR4 quickly climbed to the top of NASA's Sentry Risk table, at one point having a 1 in 32 chance of hitting Earth. This elevated it to Level 3 on the Torino scale, a system used since 1999 to categorize potential Earth impact events. Level 3, which falls within the yellow band of the Torino Scale, is described as: "A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction." "The NASA JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) now lists the 2024 YR4 impact probability as 0.00005 (0.005%) or 1-in-20,000 for its passage by Earth in 2032," Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and creator of the Torino scale exclusively told "That's impact probability zero folks!" This conforms to the second part of the Torino scale level 3 description, which states: "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.""Asteroid 2024 YR4 has now been reassigned to Torino Scale Level Zero, the level for 'No Hazard' as additional tracking of its orbital path has reduced its possibility of intersecting the Earth to below the 1-in-1000 threshold," Binzel continued. "1-in-1000 is the threshold established for downgrading to Level 0 for any object smaller than 100 meters; YR4 has an estimated size of 164 feet (50 meters)." As 2024 YR4 has continued to merit attention from news organizations across the globe, has been consulting with asteroid hunter David Rankin of the Catalina Sky Survey, who found images of the space rock in archival data that was gathered prior to its official discovery. From the outset, Rankin anticipated that 2024 YR4's impact odds would initially rise before dropping dramatically. He explained where this uncertainty originates when tracking an asteroid's trajectory. "Imagine holding a stick that is a few feet long. If you move the stick in your hand a fraction of an inch, you hardly notice any movement on the other end," Rankin said. "Now imagine that stick is many millions of miles long. Moving your hand a fraction of an inch will cause dramatic changes on the other end." That "fraction of an inch" movement is analogous to the tiny uncertainties in the positional measurements of the asteroid from the telescope's imaging the asteroid which arises from small timing errors and minor positional errors. As more observations are collected, these uncertainties begin to be eliminated. Though asteroid 2024 YR4 is likely to now drop from public attention, Binzel rounded up some of the points that we should all remember from the evolution of this story. "As 2024 YR4 fades away from the news cycle, I think there is an overall context that is the most important takeaway news," the MIT researcher said. "An object the size of YR4 passes harmlessly through the Earth-moon neighborhood as frequently as a few times per year. "The YR4 episode is just the beginning for astronomers gaining the capability to see these objects before they come calling through our neck of the woods." Binzel added that, as with 2024 YR4, some newly discovered asteroids will initially have uncertain miss distances, but follow-up observations will clarify their paths. "But, just like YR4, with a little time and patient tracking, we will be able to rule out entirely any hazard," he continued. "This means that objects with low categories on the Torino Scale are likely to be a common occurrence, of interest to space enthusiasts and astronomers for follow-up, but not particularly newsworthy." Related Stories: — Earth's mini-moon has finally departed. Will it ever return as a 'second moon?' — Asteroid the size of 3 million elephants zooms past Earth — Astronauts could mine asteroids for food someday, scientists say While 2024 YR4 poses no threat, it will still have a major scientific impact when it passes Earth in 2028 and again in 2032. On Dec. 17, the asteroid will come to within 5 million miles of Earth. Then, on Dec.22, 2032, 2024 YR4 will pass within just 167,000 miles of our planet. For context, the moon is 238,855 miles away. While the general public can sleep soundly knowing that 2024 YR4 won't hit Earth, unleashing city-wide devastation, scientists will relish the opportunity to study this space rock in detail."Rather than making anyone anxious, by finding these objects that are already out there and pinning down their orbits, we are becoming more secure in our knowledge that any sizable asteroid is not likely to take us by surprise," Binzel concluded.
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Earth safe from 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 'That's impact probability zero folks!'
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Time to breathe a sigh of relief. The asteroid that once posed the greatest impact risk to Earth in recorded history now has an effective 0% chance of striking our planet. The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth was reduced to zero thanks to new data collected on Sunday, Feb. 23. Discovered in Dec. 2024, 2024 YR4 quickly climbed to the top of NASA's Sentry Risk table, at one point having a 1 in 32 chance of hitting Earth. This elevated it to Level 3 on the Torino scale, a system used since 1999 to categorize potential Earth impact events. Level 3, which falls within the yellow band of the Torino Scale, is described as: "A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction." "The NASA JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) now lists the 2024 YR4 impact probability as 0.00005 (0.005%) or 1-in-20,000 for its passage by Earth in 2032," Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and creator of the Torino scale exclusively told "That's impact probability zero folks!" This conforms to the second part of the Torino scale level 3 description, which states: "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.""Asteroid 2024 YR4 has now been reassigned to Torino Scale Level Zero, the level for 'No Hazard' as additional tracking of its orbital path has reduced its possibility of intersecting the Earth to below the 1-in-1000 threshold," Binzel continued. "1-in-1000 is the threshold established for downgrading to Level 0 for any object smaller than 100 meters; YR4 has an estimated size of 164 feet (50 meters)." As 2024 YR4 has continued to merit attention from news organizations across the globe, has been consulting with asteroid hunter David Rankin of the Catalina Sky Survey, who found images of the space rock in archival data that was gathered prior to its official discovery. From the outset, Rankin anticipated that 2024 YR4's impact odds would initially rise before dropping dramatically. He explained where this uncertainty originates when tracking an asteroid's trajectory. "Imagine holding a stick that is a few feet long. If you move the stick in your hand a fraction of an inch, you hardly notice any movement on the other end," Rankin said. "Now imagine that stick is many millions of miles long. Moving your hand a fraction of an inch will cause dramatic changes on the other end." That "fraction of an inch" movement is analogous to the tiny uncertainties in the positional measurements of the asteroid from the telescope's imaging the asteroid which arises from small timing errors and minor positional errors. As more observations are collected, these uncertainties begin to be eliminated. Though asteroid 2024 YR4 is likely to now drop from public attention, Binzel rounded up some of the points that we should all remember from the evolution of this story. "As 2024 YR4 fades away from the news cycle, I think there is an overall context that is the most important takeaway news," the MIT researcher said. "An object the size of YR4 passes harmlessly through the Earth-moon neighborhood as frequently as a few times per year. "The YR4 episode is just the beginning for astronomers gaining the capability to see these objects before they come calling through our neck of the woods." Binzel added that, as with 2024 YR4, some newly discovered asteroids will initially have uncertain miss distances, but follow-up observations will clarify their paths. "But, just like YR4, with a little time and patient tracking, we will be able to rule out entirely any hazard," he continued. "This means that objects with low categories on the Torino Scale are likely to be a common occurrence, of interest to space enthusiasts and astronomers for follow-up, but not particularly newsworthy." Related Stories: — Earth's mini-moon has finally departed. Will it ever return as a 'second moon?' — Asteroid the size of 3 million elephants zooms past Earth — Astronauts could mine asteroids for food someday, scientists say While 2024 YR4 poses no threat, it will still have a major scientific impact when it passes Earth in 2028 and again in 2032. On Dec. 17, the asteroid will come to within 5 million miles of Earth. Then, on Dec.22, 2032, 2024 YR4 will pass within just 167,000 miles of our planet. For context, the moon is 238,855 miles away. While the general public can sleep soundly knowing that 2024 YR4 won't hit Earth, unleashing city-wide devastation, scientists will relish the opportunity to study this space rock in detail."Rather than making anyone anxious, by finding these objects that are already out there and pinning down their orbits, we are becoming more secure in our knowledge that any sizable asteroid is not likely to take us by surprise," Binzel concluded.
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA lowers impact risk of 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 to 1 in 67 (phew!)
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. If you've been worrying about reports of a possible asteroid impact in 2032, we have very good news! NASA has dropped the probability of an impact from asteroid 2024 YR4 to 1 in 67. NASA announced the reduced impact risk on its X feed at around 5:00 p.m. EST (2200 GMT) on Wednesday (Feb. 19). The updated assessment was based on new orbital data for the asteroid, which is estimated to be around 180 feet (55 meters) wide, collected overnight between the Feb. 18 and Feb. 19. The radical drop in impact risk for 2024 YR4 came just a day after its risk factor was increased to 1 in 32 or 3.1%. This increase saw 2024 YR4 become the most risky asteroid in the history of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Risk Table was introduced. Despite the extreme drop in impact risk, 2024 YR4 still sits at the top of the Sentry table. The next riskiest asteroid on the table is 1950 DA, which has a 0.039% chance of impacting Earth in 2880. Regarding the drop in 2024 YR4's impact risk on Dec. 22, 2032, NASA wrote: "New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%. "Our understanding of the asteroid's path improves with every observation. We'll keep you posted." As NASA dropped the impact risk of 2024 YT4, the European Space Agency (ESA) also reduced the asteroid's risk of impacting Earth in 2032 to 1.38% or around 1 in 73. Of course, this is an opportunity for readers to tell their friends, "I told you so," about a drop in the impact risk of 2024 YR4!We've been talking to asteroid hunter David Rankin, who first "precovered" (short for pre-discovery recovery) asteroid 2024 YR4 in data from the Catalina Sky Survey (meaning he was able to find images of the space rock in archival data that was gathered prior to its official discovery) since it hit the top of the Sentry Risk Table. He's been predicting that it's only a matter of time until the odds of an impact dropped significantly. Rankin has been reassuring readers of all along that the risk of 2024 YR4 would climb rapidly and then begin to decrease as astronomers collect more data about the asteroid. The asteroid hunter from the Catalina Sky Survey previously explained how uncertainty in the path of 2024 YR4 arises with an analogy. "Imagine holding a stick that is a few feet long. If you move the stick in your hand a fraction of an inch, you hardly notice any movement on the other end," the researcher said. "Now imagine that stick is many millions of miles long. Moving your hand a fraction of an inch will cause dramatic changes on the other end." "In this case, that 'fraction of an inch' is tiny uncertainties in the positional measurements of the asteroid from the telescopes' images that can arise from small timing errors and small positional errors," Rankin continued. "It's not possible to get a 'perfect' measurement of the asteroid from any telescope." Even if 2024 YR4 misses Earth in 2032, there remains a small chance, about 1 in 125 or 0.8%, that the asteroid could strike the moon. Of course, by far, the most likely outcome is this asteroid missing Earth and its lunar companion and continuing on its path around the sun. Related Stories: — Earth's mini-moon has finally departed. Will it ever return as a 'second moon?' — Asteroid the size of 3 million elephants zooms past Earth — Astronauts could mine asteroids for food someday, scientists say We might have to wait a while until we have more solid info on 2024 YR4's passage through the inner solar system. The asteroid is currently heading away from Earth, but it is set to swing back toward our planet in 2028, once again becoming visible to ground-based telescopes. Even if 2024 YR4 doesn't impact Earth, its scientific impact, as it offers a chance to see an asteroid up close and personal, is immense.
Yahoo
16-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
'City-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon instead of us, scientists say
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. An asteroid that's big enough to wipe out a city has a 1-in-43 chance of hitting our planet in the year 2032. But according to new calculations, there's an even smaller chance that it might crash into the moon instead. On Feb. 7, NASA scientists increased the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, nearly doubling the odds from 1.2% to 2.3%. The potentially hazardous asteroid measures an estimated 180 feet (55 meters) across — about as wide as Walt Disney World's Cinderella Castle is tall — and is traveling at nearly 30,000 mph (48,000 kph). Although it is too small to end human civilization, 2024 YR4 could still wipe out a major city, releasing about 8 megatons of energy upon impact — more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan. But what if it hurtled into the moon instead? David Rankin, an operations engineer for the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, revealed in a post on Bluesky that the asteroid also has a 0.3% chance of hitting our natural satellite. The effects of this unlucky collision would likely be visible from our planet — although we, ourselves, would probably be unaffected. "There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat," Rankin told New Scientist. That does not mean we wouldn't see it. Rankin told Live Science that, based on current estimates, a collision with the moon could release more energy than 340 Hiroshima bombs. "It would likely be very visible from Earth," he said. However, Gareth Collins, a professor of planetary science at Imperial College London, told New Scientist that "we would be quite safe on Earth." He added that any material ejected from the collision would likely burn up in Earth's atmosphere. Related: How many space rocks hit the moon every year? Throughout its history, the moon has been subject to countless asteroid bombardments, as can be seen by its crater-pocked surface. However, if the moon were to take the hit from 2024 YR4, it would be left with a crater up to 1.2 miles (2 kilometers) across, New Scientist reported. (That's just a pothole compared with the moon's largest crater, the South Pole-Aitken basin, which spans more than 1,500 miles (2,400 km) in diameter.) RELATED STORIES — Watch potential 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 as it hurtles through space — Here's what could happen if asteroid Bennu smashes into Earth in 157 years — Newly discovered near-Earth asteroid isn't an asteroid at all — it's Elon Musk's trashed Tesla The probability of the space rock hitting either Earth or the moon is still very low, and an international team of scientists has been granted emergency use of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to learn more about the space rock's size and trajectory before it leaves Earth's view for the next few years. So far, astronomers have only observed 2024 YR4 using telescopes on Earth, and they've estimated its size by measuring the amount of light that bounces off the asteroid. But this is a fairly imprecise estimate. Instead, JWST will measure the heat emitted from the asteroid itself, which will create a much clearer picture of the asteroid's size and surface composition. "As of now, there is still a 97.9% chance of a miss with respect to Earth," Rankin told Live Science in an email. "When the odds doubled from 1% to 2%, this caused a lot of noise. It's not the same thing as going from 40% to 80% though. This asteroid is nothing to lose sleep over."
