Latest news with #CentreforInternationalandDefencePolicy
Kuwait Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- Kuwait Times
Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia shake up conflict
PARIS: Ukraine managed to not only humiliate the Kremlin by boasting of taking out more than a third of all Russian missile carriers in a spectacular drone attack but also to rewrite the rules of modern warfare, analysts say. Despite being outnumbered and outgunned, Kyiv used inexpensive drones at the weekend to destroy Russian nuclear-capable bombers worth billions of dollars in an operation carried out after months of planning. 'Spider's Web' dealt a blow to Russia more than three years after its invasion of Ukraine, and the operation will now be studied closely by militaries around the world as a new strategy in asymmetric warfare. Ukraine said it destroyed $7 billion worth of Russian aircraft parked at airbases thousands of kilometers across the border, mainly Tu-95 and Tu-22 long-range strategic bombers. While the attacks at Belaya deep in Siberia and Olenya on the Kola Peninsula in the Arctic circle are unlikely to change to course of the war, they will limit Moscow's ability to launch long-range missile strikes against Ukraine. Yohann Michel, a researcher at the French university Lyon-3, said the loss of the aircraft was 'a serious blow to Russian offensive capabilities'. 'The main impact could be felt in several weeks' time with a reduction in the number of sorties by the rest of the fleet' due to difficulties in finding spare parts for the Soviet-era planes, which are no longer in production, he told AFP. Maxim Starchak, a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University in Canada, said it would take Russia a long time to replace the lost aircraft. 'Russia is extremely slow and inefficient in developing new aircraft for its nuclear forces,' he told AFP. New way of waging war The drones, launched from trucks in the immediate vicinity of air bases deep inside Russia, destroyed or damaged aircraft parked in the open. Congratulating Ukraine's security service chief Vasyl Malyuk, President Volodymyr Zelensky said it had taken 18 months of preparation for the 117 drones to be concealed inside trucks close to the airbases, and that all the Ukrainian agents had safely left Russia. Michael Shurkin, a former CIA officer, said Ukraine's operation was likely to have struck fear into militaries across the world, adding that potential targets for such drone attacks could include refineries, ballistic missile silos or military bases. 'This technology is akin to stealth technology: The threat is difficult to detect both because it emerges near the target and is too small and too low to be picked up by sensors designed to catch aircraft or missiles,' said Shurkin, director of global programs for the consultancy 14 North Strategies. Ukrainian military analyst Oleksii Kopytko said anyone delivering a pizza or driving a horse-drawn cart could present a danger. 'The organizers and main perpetrators are essentially untraceable,' he said. A French arms manufacturing executive said Ukraine could even have trained AI algorithms to recognize aircraft or guide the drones in case of jamming. 'New tools are forcing us to completely rethink defense systems and how they are produced,' said the executive, who asked not to be named. 'It opens up possibilities that we hadn't even imagined.' Zelensky 'just proved that he and Ukraine are more than able to pull aces out of their combat fatigue sleeves,' said Timothy Ash, an emerging market economist focused on Russia. The attacks exposed Russia's air base vulnerabilities, in a massive morale boost for Kyiv after months on the backfoot in the conflict. 'The protection of military air bases does not meet security requirements,' said Starchak. 'The dispersal of military aircraft across different airfields did not help either.' Russia's vast size is also a disadvantage here. 'Usually, the vastness of Russia's territory is an advantage; you can hide your bombers thousands of kilometres away where they would be safe,' said Michel. 'The problem is that this means you have to monitor thousands of square kilometers, which is simply impossible.' The attacks dealt a blow to Moscow's nuclear triad of ground, sea and air-launched missiles, said Starchak. If it was possible to target an airbase it is also possible to hit bases hosting nuclear submarines, Starchak said. 'An attack on long-range aircraft bases is a potential threat to the entire nuclear triad, which can be easily hit, thereby weakening it to the point that it cannot respond with a nuclear strike.' John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, said that Ukraine's operation gave US President Donald Trump leverage against Russia's Vladimir Putin in search of a settlement. 'It is a strong counter to the dubious 'common wisdom' that the war is moving inevitably in Moscow's favor,' wrote the former US ambassador to Ukraine. — AFP
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
'Aces up the sleeve': Ukraine drone attacks in Russia shake up conflict
Ukraine managed to not only humiliate the Kremlin by boasting of taking out more than a third of all Russian missile carriers in a spectacular drone attack but also to rewrite the rules of modern warfare, analysts say. Despite being outnumbered and outgunned, Kyiv used inexpensive drones at the weekend to destroy Russian nuclear-capable bombers worth billions of dollars in an operation carried out after months of planning. "Spider's Web" dealt a blow to Russia more than three years after its invasion of Ukraine, and the operation will now be studied closely by militaries around the world as a new strategy in asymmetric warfare. Ukraine said it destroyed $7 billion worth of Russian aircraft parked at airbases thousands of kilometres across the border, mainly Tu-95 and Tu-22 long-range strategic bombers. While the attacks at Belaya deep in Siberia and Olenya on the Kola Peninsula in the Arctic circle are unlikely to change to course of the war, they will limit Moscow's ability to launch long-range missile strikes against Ukraine. Yohann Michel, a researcher at the French university Lyon-3, said the loss of the aircraft was "a serious blow to Russian offensive capabilities". "The main impact could be felt in several weeks' time with a reduction in the number of sorties by the rest of the fleet" due to difficulties in finding spare parts for the Soviet-era planes, which are no longer in production, he told AFP. Maxim Starchak, a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University in Canada, said it would take Russia a long time to replace the lost aircraft. "Russia is extremely slow and inefficient in developing new aircraft for its nuclear forces," he told AFP. - New way of waging war - The drones, launched from trucks in the immediate vicinity of air bases deep inside Russia, destroyed or damaged aircraft parked in the open. Congratulating Ukraine's security service chief Vasyl Malyuk, President Volodymyr Zelensky said it had taken 18 months of preparation for the 117 drones to be concealed inside trucks close to the airbases, and that all the Ukrainian agents had safely left Russia. Michael Shurkin, a former CIA officer, said Ukraine's operation was likely to have struck fear into militaries across the world, adding that potential targets for such drone attacks could include refineries, ballistic missile silos or military bases. "This technology is akin to stealth technology: The threat is difficult to detect both because it emerges near the target and is too small and too low to be picked up by sensors designed to catch aircraft or missiles," said Shurkin, director of global programs for the consultancy 14 North Strategies. Ukrainian military analyst Oleksii Kopytko said anyone delivering a pizza or driving a horse-drawn cart could present a danger. "The organisers and main perpetrators are essentially untraceable," he said. A French arms manufacturing executive said Ukraine could even have trained AI algorithms to recognise aircraft or guide the drones in case of jamming. "New tools are forcing us to completely rethink defence systems and how they are produced," said the executive, who asked not to be named. "It opens up possibilities that we hadn't even imagined." Zelensky "just proved that he and Ukraine are more than able to pull aces out of their combat fatigue sleeves," said Timothy Ash, an emerging market economist focused on Russia. - 'Did not help' - The attacks exposed Russia's air base vulnerabilities, in a massive morale boost for Kyiv after months on the backfoot in the conflict. "The protection of military air bases does not meet security requirements," said Starchak. "The dispersal of military aircraft across different airfields did not help either." Russia's vast size is also a disadvantage here. "Usually, the vastness of Russia's territory is an advantage; you can hide your bombers thousands of kilometres away where they would be safe," said Michel. "The problem is that this means you have to monitor thousands of square kilometres, which is simply impossible." The attacks dealt a blow to Moscow's nuclear triad of ground, sea and air-launched missiles, said Starchak. If it was possible to target an airbase it is also possible to hit bases hosting nuclear submarines, Starchak said. "An attack on long-range aircraft bases is a potential threat to the entire nuclear triad, which can be easily hit, thereby weakening it to the point that it cannot respond with a nuclear strike." John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, said that Ukraine's operation gave US President Donald Trump leverage against Russia's Vladimir Putin in search of a settlement. "It is a strong counter to the dubious 'common wisdom' that the war is moving inevitably in Moscow's favour," wrote the former US ambassador to Ukraine mra-dla-as/sjw/jxb
France 24
4 days ago
- Politics
- France 24
'Aces up the sleeve': Ukraine drone attacks in Russia shake up conflict
Despite being outnumbered and outgunned, Kyiv used inexpensive drones at the weekend to destroy Russian nuclear-capable bombers worth billions of dollars in an operation carried out after months of planning. "Spider's Web" dealt a blow to Russia more than three years after its invasion of Ukraine, and the operation will now be studied closely by militaries around the world as a new strategy in asymmetric warfare. Ukraine said it destroyed $7 billion worth of Russian aircraft parked at airbases thousands of kilometres across the border, mainly Tu-95 and Tu-22 long-range strategic bombers. While the attacks at Belaya deep in Siberia and Olenya on the Kola Peninsula in the Arctic circle are unlikely to change to course of the war, they will limit Moscow's ability to launch long-range missile strikes against Ukraine. Yohann Michel, a researcher at the French university Lyon-3, said the loss of the aircraft was "a serious blow to Russian offensive capabilities". "The main impact could be felt in several weeks' time with a reduction in the number of sorties by the rest of the fleet" due to difficulties in finding spare parts for the Soviet-era planes, which are no longer in production, he told AFP. Maxim Starchak, a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University in Canada, said it would take Russia a long time to replace the lost aircraft. "Russia is extremely slow and inefficient in developing new aircraft for its nuclear forces," he told AFP. - New way of waging war - The drones, launched from trucks in the immediate vicinity of air bases deep inside Russia, destroyed or damaged aircraft parked in the open. Congratulating Ukraine's security service chief Vasyl Malyuk, President Volodymyr Zelensky said it had taken 18 months of preparation for the 117 drones to be concealed inside trucks close to the airbases, and that all the Ukrainian agents had safely left Russia. Michael Shurkin, a former CIA officer, said Ukraine's operation was likely to have struck fear into militaries across the world, adding that potential targets for such drone attacks could include refineries, ballistic missile silos or military bases. "This technology is akin to stealth technology: The threat is difficult to detect both because it emerges near the target and is too small and too low to be picked up by sensors designed to catch aircraft or missiles," said Shurkin, director of global programs for the consultancy 14 North Strategies. Ukrainian military analyst Oleksii Kopytko said anyone delivering a pizza or driving a horse-drawn cart could present a danger. "The organisers and main perpetrators are essentially untraceable," he said. A French arms manufacturing executive said Ukraine could even have trained AI algorithms to recognise aircraft or guide the drones in case of jamming. "New tools are forcing us to completely rethink defence systems and how they are produced," said the executive, who asked not to be named. "It opens up possibilities that we hadn't even imagined." Zelensky "just proved that he and Ukraine are more than able to pull aces out of their combat fatigue sleeves," said Timothy Ash, an emerging market economist focused on Russia. 'Did not help' The attacks exposed Russia's air base vulnerabilities, in a massive morale boost for Kyiv after months on the backfoot in the conflict. "The protection of military air bases does not meet security requirements," said Starchak. "The dispersal of military aircraft across different airfields did not help either." Russia's vast size is also a disadvantage here. "Usually, the vastness of Russia's territory is an advantage; you can hide your bombers thousands of kilometres away where they would be safe," said Michel. "The problem is that this means you have to monitor thousands of square kilometres, which is simply impossible." The attacks dealt a blow to Moscow's nuclear triad of ground, sea and air-launched missiles, said Starchak. If it was possible to target an airbase it is also possible to hit bases hosting nuclear submarines, Starchak said. "An attack on long-range aircraft bases is a potential threat to the entire nuclear triad, which can be easily hit, thereby weakening it to the point that it cannot respond with a nuclear strike." John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, said that Ukraine's operation gave US President Donald Trump leverage against Russia's Vladimir Putin in search of a settlement. © 2025 AFP
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
'Not interested': Analysts sceptical about US, Russia nuclear talks
The United States and Russia have pledged their readiness to resume nuclear disarmament talks after years of confrontation, but analysts are sceptical that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin can or even want to reach a breakthrough new agreement. Days after returning to the White House for a second term, Trump said he would like to see "denuclearisation" and called for China to join the talks between Russia and the United States, the world's two biggest nuclear powers. The Kremlin immediately confirmed its interest in launching talks "as soon as possible", saying last week that French and British nuclear weapon stockpiles should also be taken into account. But China has indicated it is not interested at this stage, while analysts dismissed the US and Russian statements as posturing. Moscow in particular has no interest in reducing its arsenal of nuclear warheads as its invasion of Ukraine is set to enter its fourth year next month, analysts say, suspecting Putin sees any potential future talks as an attempt to break out of Western isolation and even try to negotiate the fate of Ukraine. The last remaining strategic arms control agreement between Russia and the United States is set to expire in a year. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, an organisation which informs the public about threats to humankind, appears to also be deeply sceptical. The scientists on Tuesday shifted their "doomsday" clock to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been. - 'Redistribution of influence' - "It's hard to imagine China, Russia or the United States undertaking the exacting negotiations required at this point in good faith," said Adam Mount, a nuclear expert at the Federation of American Scientists. "Donald Trump thinks of himself as a deal maker, but historically hasn't had the patience, proficiency, or credibility," he said, adding that most people in the Trump administration are "arms control skeptics". Maxim Starchak, a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University in Canada, said Moscow's statements should not be taken at face value. "Russia is not interested in arms control, it is interested in the redistribution of influence in Europe," Starchak said. "The so-called arms control negotiations are a way for Moscow to achieve negotiations on broad issues of European security," he added. "It is important for Putin to show that he is not against negotiations, and in the end declare that the United States has failed them." Olivier Zajec, director of France's Institute for Strategy and Defence Studies, said he thought it would be in Russia's interest to hold talks on a new agreement. "Nuclear power is the only thing that gives Russians the ability to talk to the Americans on an equal footing in the world," he said. If the last arms control agreement between Russia and the United States is not replaced, Moscow and Washington will find themselves without a bilateral nuclear arms control agreement for the first time since 1972, Zajec added. The last remaining strategic arms control agreement between Russia and the United States -- the New START Treaty -- is set to expire in February 2026. The treaty restricted the former Cold War rivals to a maximum of 1,550 deployed warheads each. Moscow said it was suspending its participation in New START in 2023, a year after Putin's invasion of Ukraine, which has raised fears of Russian use of nuclear weapons, though it has kept to the limits set by the agreement. In 2019, the two powers withdrew from the landmark 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty concluded by US president Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which limited the use of medium-range missiles, both conventional and nuclear. - 'Lack of transparency' - Washington has embarked on a costly modernisation of its nuclear triad of air, land and sea-based weapons, estimating that China's nuclear stockpile is expected to increase to about 1,500 warheads by 2035. On Monday, Trump signed an executive order to start planning for an "Iron Dome" air defence system for the United States. China, which is still a long way from achieving nuclear parity with Russia and the United States, has regularly rejected Washington's invitations to join US-Russian nuclear talks. On Tuesday, China called on Washington and Moscow to "further reduce" their nuclear arsenals as a precondition for its participation in negotiations. Zajec said China had no interest in engaging in nuclear arms control talks. "If it did that, even though its arsenal is quantitatively smaller, it would lose the advantage that a certain lack of transparency over its arsenal gives it," he said. mra-as/ah/js
Khaleej Times
30-01-2025
- Politics
- Khaleej Times
'Not interested': Analysts sceptical about US, Russia nuclear talks
The United States and Russia have pledged their readiness to resume nuclear disarmament talks after years of confrontation, but analysts are sceptical that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin can or even want to reach a breakthrough new agreement. Days after returning to the White House for a second term, Trump said he would like to see "denuclearisation" and called for China to join the talks between Russia and the United States, the world's two biggest nuclear powers. The Kremlin immediately confirmed its interest in launching talks "as soon as possible", saying last week that French and British nuclear weapon stockpiles should also be taken into account. But China has indicated it is not interested at this stage, while analysts dismissed the US and Russian statements as posturing. Moscow in particular has no interest in reducing its arsenal of nuclear warheads as its invasion of Ukraine is set to enter its fourth year next month, analysts say, suspecting Putin sees any potential future talks as an attempt to break out of Western isolation and even try to negotiate the fate of Ukraine. The last remaining strategic arms control agreement between Russia and the United States is set to expire in a year. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, an organisation which informs the public about threats to humankind, appears to also be deeply sceptical. The scientists on Tuesday shifted their "doomsday" clock to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been. "It's hard to imagine China, Russia or the United States undertaking the exacting negotiations required at this point in good faith," said Adam Mount, a nuclear expert at the Federation of American Scientists. "Donald Trump thinks of himself as a deal maker, but historically hasn't had the patience, proficiency, or credibility," he said, adding that most people in the Trump administration are "arms control sceptics". Maxim Starchak, a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University in Canada, said Moscow's statements should not be taken at face value. "Russia is not interested in arms control, it is interested in the redistribution of influence in Europe," Starchak said. "The so-called arms control negotiations are a way for Moscow to achieve negotiations on broad issues of European security," he added. "It is important for Putin to show that he is not against negotiations, and in the end declare that the United States has failed them." Olivier Zajec, director of France's Institute for Strategy and Defence Studies, said he thought it would be in Russia's interest to hold talks on a new agreement. "Nuclear power is the only thing that gives Russians the ability to talk to the Americans on an equal footing in the world," he said. If the last arms control agreement between Russia and the United States is not replaced, Moscow and Washington will find themselves without a bilateral nuclear arms control agreement for the first time since 1972, Zajec added. The last remaining strategic arms control agreement between Russia and the United States — the New START Treaty — is set to expire in February 2026. The treaty restricted the former Cold War rivals to a maximum of 1,550 deployed warheads each. Moscow said it was suspending its participation in New START in 2023, a year after Putin's invasion of Ukraine, which has raised fears of Russian use of nuclear weapons, though it has kept to the limits set by the agreement. In 2019, the two powers withdrew from the landmark 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty concluded by US president Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which limited the use of medium-range missiles, both conventional and nuclear. Washington has embarked on a costly modernisation of its nuclear triad of air, land and sea-based weapons, estimating that China's nuclear stockpile is expected to increase to about 1,500 warheads by 2035. On Monday, Trump signed an executive order to start planning for an "Iron Dome" air defence system for the United States. China, which is still a long way from achieving nuclear parity with Russia and the United States, has regularly rejected Washington's invitations to join US-Russian nuclear talks. On Tuesday, China called on Washington and Moscow to "further reduce" their nuclear arsenals as a precondition for its participation in negotiations. Zajec said China had no interest in engaging in nuclear arms control talks. "If it did that, even though its arsenal is quantitatively smaller, it would lose the advantage that a certain lack of transparency over its arsenal gives it," he said.
