Latest news with #CharlieMorris
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Tops $111K, on Brink of Breaking Record High; Ether's 6% Jump Leads Major Cryptos
Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of its recent very tight trading range during U.S. Wednesday afternoon hours, threatening to topple its May record of $112,000. The largest crypto briefly notched a new record in U.S. dollar terms on some exchanges including Binance, Coinbase and Bitstamp, before retreating towards $111,000. However, price data aggregators including CoinDesk, CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap show that BTC remained just below its May 22 peak. The move came amid a broader crypto rally that also saw Ethereum's ether (ETH) surge 6% to $2,760, its highest level in a month. Bitcoin itself was ahead 2.4% at $111,400 at press time. During today's swift move higher, some $425 million in leveraged short positions were liquidated across all crypto derivatives, CoinGlass data shows. For BTC, the area around the $110,000 level has been a significant barrier over the past several weeks with investors taking profits and shorts piling each time the price neared that level. Checking crypto-related stocks, Strategy (MSTR) is higher by 4.4% and at $414, only a few dollars shy of its highest level of 2025 (though still well below its record high of $543 set late last year). Coinbase (COIN) is ahead 5%. Bitcoin miners MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up roughly 6%. Still, market watchers noted that the slow, quiet buildup could be a bullish setup. "Crypto feels so quiet, [while] bitcoin is ready to move," wrote Charlie Morris, chief investment officer at ByteTree, in a report. Morris pointed out that bitcoin's volatility has steadily declined, a pattern that historically preceded large upward moves. "The setup for the next one is looking good," he said. "As I keep on saying, the quiet bulls are the best." Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, pointed to ether's strength above key technical support levels and growing demand from long-only institutions betting on its future role in settlement infrastructure and asset tokenization. That view was echoed by digital asset manager Bitwise's analysts, who named ETH as one of the "cleanest" token plays to bet on the red-hot tokenization trend, The Block reported. UPDATE (July 9, 2025, 20:30 UTC): Adds more details throughout the story. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's $4.5 trillion tax cuts risk making bond markets ‘puke'
'This is a fate worse than death,' bemoaned Charlie Morris on Wednesday, as the founder of investment advisory firm ByteTree was caught up in the Bloomberg blackout. Confronted by a blank screen as he sat at his terminal, Morris was one of countless City traders unable to access data or execute trades as Britain's Debt Management Office (DMO) was about to auction £4.25bn of UK government bonds. The DMO, which is charged with raising money for the Government, was forced to extend the length of its auction while a fix was found. The drama ultimately proved to be just a temporary hiccup, as the auction letter attracted bids of £11.6bn. However, the same could not be said across the Atlantic, where bond markets were suffering more serious convulsions. The US Treasury Department revealed on Wednesday that it had attracted tepid demand for a $16bn (£12bn) sale of 20-year bonds. This pushed the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds – the benchmark for the cost of long-term US government borrowing – to an 18-month high. It remained above 5pc on Thursday. 'The move reflects a change in the perceptions of investors around the safe-haven value of holding long-dated US paper,' says Joseph Brusuelas, US chief economist at RSM. 'Investors are growing increasingly concerned about the intersection of government spending, taxes, trade, inflation and growth.' The bond auction was the first since Moody's last week became the last of the three major credit rating agencies to strip the US of its prized triple-A status. Moody's said the decision was a result of America's mountainous debts, which it said are on track to reach 134pc of GDP by 2035. Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, says: 'It's not a magic money tree in the traditional way, but certainly the US has been able to run deficits that no other developed country would get away with. 'It is a far larger deficit that is far longer than any other country would do, and that's because there's almost an infinite demand for US assets.' The debt market, however, is going through a regime change, says Pugh, as the end of the low interest rate era pushes up borrowing costs. And that is before you throw in the effects of Donald Trump, Pugh adds, as the US president is trying to borrow vast sums to finance a package of sweeping tax cuts. 'That is adding to this risk premium effect, where, if you're locking up your money for 10-20 years, there is now a lot more uncertainty on that timeframe than there was three to six months ago,' he says. Initially, the market reaction to the Moody's downgrade was muted, with a brief rise in yields on Monday petering out by Tuesday. But by the end of the week, that had all changed, with yields moving higher amid lacklustre demand for 20-year Treasuries. Concerns rose further after signs of distress also appeared in other parts of the world. In Japan, an auction of 20-year notes on Tuesday attracted the weakest demand in more than a decade, taking the country's 30-year yield to the highest level since records began in 1999. 'These moves in long-dated bond yields, not just in the US but frankly almost everywhere, are getting a little bit scary,' says Riddell. 'If Japanese government bond yields go much higher, then a lot of domestic Japanese investors – life insurance companies – are then incentivised to sell Treasuries, Bunds or gilts and actually repatriate the money back home and switch that into Japanese government bonds.' Such a move poses a huge risk for Trump. Money moving from US bonds means that the US Treasury would be forced to increase the yield it offers to attract demand, pushing up the cost of servicing the government's $36 trillion debt pile. Such an event would come just as the US president has passed the first hurdle in getting his tax-cutting 'big beautiful bill' through the Senate. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a revised version of his 1,000-page tax bill on Thursday by 215 votes to 214, with Democrats staunchly opposed. Should it pass the Senate, it will extend some $4.5 trillion in tax breaks introduced during Trump's first term in 2017. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has pegged the cost of the bill at $3.1 trillion over the next decade – which is about 10pc of this year's GDP. As a result, the Congressional Budget Office now projects deficits near 7pc of GDP in the coming years. 'That's wartime borrowing in a peacetime economy with low unemployment,' says Stefan Koopman, an analyst at Rabobank. 'Perhaps inspired by Moody's downgrade, markets are finally taking notice that the fiscal outlook is completely unhinged. 'There is no serious effort at fiscal consolidation or to reduce the structurally large deficits.' Those outside the sphere of financial markets might ask, what is the problem with the US running huge fiscal deficits? US administrations – and indeed governments around the world – have long run huge budget shortfalls without the world falling over. 'US presidents have been emboldened by the fact that they seem to have ample fiscal space,' says Bill Papadakis, an analyst at bank Lombard Odier, citing the example of Covid. 'They feel they have the space to do that and obviously that's a dangerous dynamic in that, if you keep doing it, at some point, of course those dynamics might change.' Many economists have taken solace from Trump's decision last month to suspend his 'liberation day' tariffs following the upheaval caused in financial markets. 'We did see a little bit of Trump reacting to market conditions that were sending warning signs,' said Papadakis. 'The dollar weakened a bit, Treasury yields went up, people started talking about the end to US exceptionalism and after this event he did seem to walk back on some of the announcements he had made.' But since the tariff onslaught was announced on April 2, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on Wall Street have clawed back all their losses. Riddell warned it could take another drop in stocks for the president to water down his tax cuts, by which time it could be too late. 'Back in February and March, the focus really was all about Doge,' he says. 'It was about Elon Musk. It was about getting the deficit to 3pc and how they were slashing away at the government sector. 'This has massively moved to the back seat now. It is all about corporate tax cuts and the last thing a long-dated bond needs is tax cuts. We need to have higher revenue, not more fiscal easing and this is what makes me nervous. 'It increases the chance of a really violent bond market sell-off at the long end, which will then at some point feed into risk assets and cause a bit of a puke like we saw earlier this year.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Telegraph
23-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Trump's $4.5 trillion tax cuts risk making bond markets ‘puke'
'This is a fate worse than death,' bemoaned Charlie Morris on Wednesday, as the founder of investment advisory firm ByteTree was caught up in the Bloomberg blackout. Confronted by a blank screen as he sat at his terminal, Morris was one of countless City traders unable to access data or execute trades as Britain's Debt Management Office (DMO) was about to auction £4.25bn of UK government bonds. The DMO, which is charged with raising money for the Government, was forced to extend the length of its auction while a fix was found. The drama ultimately proved to be just a temporary hiccup, as the auction letter attracted bids of £11.6bn. However, the same could not be said across the Atlantic, where bond markets were suffering more serious convulsions. The US Treasury Department revealed on Wednesday that it had attracted tepid demand for a $16bn (£12bn) sale of 20-year bonds. This pushed the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds – the benchmark for the cost of long-term US government borrowing – to an 18-month high. It remained above 5pc on Thursday. 'The move reflects a change in the perceptions of investors around the safe-haven value of holding long-dated US paper,' says Joseph Brusuelas, US chief economist at RSM. 'Investors are growing increasingly concerned about the intersection of government spending, taxes, trade, inflation and growth.' 'Magic money tree' The bond auction was the first since Moody's last week became the last of the three major credit rating agencies to strip the US of its prized triple-A status. Moody's said the decision was a result of America's mountainous debts, which it said are on track to reach 134pc of GDP by 2035. Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, says: 'It's not a magic money tree in the traditional way, but certainly the US has been able to run deficits that no other developed country would get away with. 'It is a far larger deficit that is far longer than any other country would do, and that's because there's almost an infinite demand for US assets.' The debt market, however, is going through a regime change, says Pugh, as the end of the low interest rate era pushes up borrowing costs. And that is before you throw in the effects of Donald Trump, Pugh adds, as the US president is trying to borrow vast sums to finance a package of sweeping tax cuts. 'That is adding to this risk premium effect, where, if you're locking up your money for 10-20 years, there is now a lot more uncertainty on that timeframe than there was three to six months ago,' he says. Initially, the market reaction to the Moody's downgrade was muted, with a brief rise in yields on Monday petering out by Tuesday. But by the end of the week, that had all changed, with yields moving higher amid lacklustre demand for 20-year Treasuries. Concerns rose further after signs of distress also appeared in other parts of the world. In Japan, an auction of 20-year notes on Tuesday attracted the weakest demand in more than a decade, taking the country's 30-year yield to the highest level since records began in 1999. 'These moves in long-dated bond yields, not just in the US but frankly almost everywhere, are getting a little bit scary,' says Riddell. 'If Japanese government bond yields go much higher, then a lot of domestic Japanese investors – life insurance companies – are then incentivised to sell Treasuries, Bunds or gilts and actually repatriate the money back home and switch that into Japanese government bonds.' 'Big beautiful bill' Such a move poses a huge risk for Trump. Money moving from US bonds means that the US Treasury would be forced to increase the yield it offers to attract demand, pushing up the cost of servicing the government's $36 trillion debt pile. Such an event would come just as the US president has passed the first hurdle in getting his tax-cutting 'big beautiful bill' through the Senate. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a revised version of his 1,000-page tax bill on Thursday by 215 votes to 214, with Democrats staunchly opposed. Should it pass the Senate, it will extend some $4.5 trillion in tax breaks introduced during Trump's first term in 2017. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has pegged the cost of the bill at $3.1 trillion over the next decade – which is about 10pc of this year's GDP. As a result, the Congressional Budget Office now projects deficits near 7pc of GDP in the coming years. 'That's wartime borrowing in a peacetime economy with low unemployment,' says Stefan Koopman, an analyst at Rabobank. 'Perhaps inspired by Moody's downgrade, markets are finally taking notice that the fiscal outlook is completely unhinged. 'There is no serious effort at fiscal consolidation or to reduce the structurally large deficits.' Those outside the sphere of financial markets might ask, what is the problem with the US running huge fiscal deficits? US administrations – and indeed governments around the world – have long run huge budget shortfalls without the world falling over. 'US presidents have been emboldened by the fact that they seem to have ample fiscal space,' says Bill Papadakis, an analyst at bank Lombard Odier, citing the example of Covid. 'They feel they have the space to do that and obviously that's a dangerous dynamic in that, if you keep doing it, at some point, of course those dynamics might change.' Tariff turmoil Many economists have taken solace from Trump's decision last month to suspend his 'liberation day' tariffs following the upheaval caused in financial markets. 'We did see a little bit of Trump reacting to market conditions that were sending warning signs,' said Papadakis. 'The dollar weakened a bit, Treasury yields went up, people started talking about the end to US exceptionalism and after this event he did seem to walk back on some of the announcements he had made.' But since the tariff onslaught was announced on April 2, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on Wall Street have clawed back all their losses. Riddell warned it could take another drop in stocks for the president to water down his tax cuts, by which time it could be too late. 'Back in February and March, the focus really was all about Doge,' he says. 'It was about Elon Musk. It was about getting the deficit to 3pc and how they were slashing away at the government sector. 'This has massively moved to the back seat now. It is all about corporate tax cuts and the last thing a long-dated bond needs is tax cuts. We need to have higher revenue, not more fiscal easing and this is what makes me nervous. 'It increases the chance of a really violent bond market sell-off at the long end, which will then at some point feed into risk assets and cause a bit of a puke like we saw earlier this year.'
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
UK Bond Yields Hit 5.6%, Stirring ‘Memories of 2022 Pension Crisis'
As of Wednesday morning, the yield on the UK's 30-year government bond soared to 5.6%—its highest level since 1998—mirroring a broader climb in U.S. sovereign yields and sparking fresh concerns about financial market stability. Surging global bond yields are exerting significant downward pressure on risk assets. Since the U.S. equity sell-off began last Thursday, the Nasdaq has dropped 10%, while bitcoin (BTC) has fared slightly better, down 8% over the same period. In the same time the U.K. 30-year bond yield is up 8%, while the U.S. 30-year is up 12%. Charlie Morris, founder of ByteTree, believes investors will start to seek diversification into other assets including bitcoin. 'It appears that the UK has been living beyond its means for too long. It hasn't balanced its budget since 2001, the gilt market has had enough', Morris said. 'Investors seeking diversification away from financial assets will not only buy gold, but bitcoin too'. The dramatic spike in yields has revived unsettling memories of the UK's 2022 pension crisis, when a sudden surge in borrowing costs triggered a near-collapse of the financial system and ultimately cost then-Prime Minister Liz Truss her job. This latest bond market turmoil is being driven by escalating uncertainty around global trade, stoked by President Donald Trump's proposed tariff plans. These levies could disrupt global supply chains and increase costs, adding pressure to already jittery markets. 'Alas, in politics you never get what you want by making civil arguments from high principle,' former UK MP Steve Baker told CoinDesk in an exclusive interview. 'President Trump said he was using brute economic force—and he is. It's time to rediscover free trade at home and abroad, fast, before this chaos wrecks our futures.' The recent yield surge echoes the events of 2022, when a surprise mini-budget announcement on Sept. 23 sent gilt yields soaring, crashed the pound, and exposed deep vulnerabilities in the UK pension system. Many defined benefit pension schemes had adopted complex liability-driven investment (LDI) strategies, using leverage and derivatives to match long-term liabilities. But as yields spiked, these funds suffered massive mark-to-market losses and faced margin calls, forcing rapid gilt sales into a thin market and creating a destabilizing "fire sale" feedback loop. At the time, UK pension funds held around 28% of the gilt market. The ensuing chaos, occurring in a modest $1.5 trillion market, was so severe that it required the Bank of England to step in with emergency gilt purchases to halt the downward spiral. A Chicago Fed Letter analyzing the crisis later identified excessive leverage, asset pooling, and the limited depth of the gilt market as key structural weaknesses—particularly in contrast to the much larger $9.9 trillion U.S. Treasury market. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
15-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold's Historic Rally Leaves Bitcoin Behind, But the Trend May Reverse
Spot gold surpassed $3,000 an ounce for the first time before retreating to $2,990. Gold futures for April delivery also broke the $3,000 mark on Thursday. The precious metal is now up over 15% this year, driven by strong ETF inflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and continued concerns over U.S. equities amid ongoing tariff discussions by former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, gold priced in British pounds has yet to reach its all-time high of £2,363, currently sitting around £300 below that level. Charlie Morris, founder of ByTree and manager of the BOLD ETF, which includes both bitcoin and gold, has observed a divergence between gold and bitcoin ETFs and expects this trend to reverse soon. 'In the last 30 days, gold ETFs have seen $10 billion in inflows, while bitcoin ETFs have experienced $5 billion in outflows,' Morris noted. 'Sooner or later, the flows will reverse again—just as they always do.' Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy. Sign in to access your portfolio
