Latest news with #CharuChanana
Economy ME
30-07-2025
- Business
- Economy ME
Critical week ahead for stocks: What investors need to know
In the current whirlwind of economic changes, investors are grappling with a host of uncertainties as they navigate crucial indicators that could shape market dynamics. With the U.S. Federal Reserve 's next moves hanging in the balance, the potential for interest rate cuts looms large. The upcoming jobs report is set to provide insights into the labor market's health, while ongoing trade negotiations continue to influence sentiments across various sectors. As we anticipate these developments, it's clear that understanding the interplay of economic factors is vital for making informed investment decisions. Whether it's the impact of inflation data, shifts in consumer spending, or the broader implications of tariff policies, the stakes have never been higher. Fed's stance and market reactions With the Federal Reserve's decisions closely watched by investors, the upcoming meetings could significantly influence market dynamics. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist, Saxo Bank, remarked, 'While a July cut is unlikely, the decision is unlikely to be unanimous.' This suggests that dissent among Federal Reserve members, particularly from influential figures like Waller or Bowman, could sway market expectations towards a possible rate cut in September. Such a shift would likely spark a rally in bonds and rate-sensitive equities, while exerting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. The anticipation around the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index also plays a crucial role. Expected to rise by 0.3 percent month-over-month, any downside surprise would reinforce the disinflation narrative, which could further support risk assets. 'A softer-than-expected monthly reading would push the Fed closer to easing, especially if accompanied by weaker labor market signals,' Chanana emphasizes. Labor market insights The upcoming jobs report is another critical indicator. Projections indicate job gains of approximately 107,000 for July, a decline from June's 147,000. This brings the job growth closer to the breakeven pace of about 80,000 necessary to maintain a stable unemployment rate. Should the report reveal job gains below 100,000, particularly with an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent, it could signal a slowdown in momentum. Chanana states, 'Any signs of wage softness could ease inflation fears further.' This observation underscores the potential for a weak overall report to amplify expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting bonds while negatively impacting cyclicals and financials. However, sectors like technology and defensives may fare better under such conditions. Trade uncertainties and their implications The August 1 tariff deadline marks a significant milestone in the ongoing trade saga. Countries yet to secure trade agreements with the U.S. face new tariffs, creating a precarious situation. For those with agreements in principle, such as the EU and Japan, the focus will shift to the interpretation and implementation of these deals. Chanana asserts, 'This round of deals may offer short-term clarity and avoid immediate escalation, but it doesn't resolve the broader structural imbalances.' In the context of U.S.-China negotiations, a 90-day extension of the current tariff pause is expected, which would maintain the fragile status quo. However, a confrontational tone could reignite fears of renewed tariffs, leading to a risk-off sentiment in the markets. U.S. exceptionalism and sector performance Interestingly, the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism is resurfacing. Chanana notes that 'U.S. assets are once again outperforming,' driven by stronger economic data and AI-driven tech momentum. Meanwhile, Europe is losing steam, not due to a fundamental collapse, but because of a shift from policy promises to actual implementation. This divergence could bolster U.S. markets while putting pressure on European equities. As lower yields ease financing conditions, sectors like small caps, REITs, and dividend payers are positioned to benefit from potential rate cuts. Chanana explains that 'if growth isn't a concern—as is the case now—growth stocks like tech can also extend gains.' This suggests a broadening of market participation, which could provide relief to underperforming sectors such as industrials and financials. Read more: Stock markets gain momentum as U.S. indices hit record highs amid mixed investor sentiment Earnings reports and market dynamics The upcoming earnings season will be crucial for assessing consumer strength and corporate resilience. Key reports from companies like Visa, Mastercard, and Booking Holdings will provide insights into spending trends, while reports from industrial giants like Boeing and Ford will shed light on global demand. However, the concentration of market leadership among a few megacap names raises concerns. Chanana warns that 'disappointment from one or two key players could unwind recent gains quickly.' With valuations stretched and macro tailwinds fading, investors will be keenly watching both results and guidance. Dollar and gold: Navigating volatility The medium-term downtrend in the U.S. dollar remains intact, driven by expectations of Fed easing and structural imbalances. Yet, Chanana highlights potential for a short-term reversal due to resilient U.S. data and relative weakness abroad. The dollar's recent strength is further supported by the newly imposed tariffs on the eurozone, which could dampen growth prospects. As for gold, it remains range-bound with critical technical levels to watch. Chanana states, 'A sustained break above the 50-day moving average would open the path toward retesting $3,400.' While short-term pressures exist, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by persistent fiscal deficits and central bank buying.
Business Recorder
29-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
China stocks rise, HK lower as investors await trade talk details
HONG KONG: China stocks ended higher on Tuesday as a new round of Sino-U.S. trade talks continued, while the Hong Kong benchmark declined with some investors booking profits near the month-end. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index reversed morning session's losses, closing up 0.39% and 0.33%, respectively. Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng dropped 0.34%, while Hang Seng Tech fell 0.35%. Market sentiment cooled slightly as investors awaited details from the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks that started on Monday in Stockholm. China faces an August 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement; both China and U.S. are expected to push for an extension of the trade truce. 'A truce extension would calm markets… a confrontational tone or vague outcomes could reignite fears of renewed tariffs down the line, resulting in a risk-off sentiment,' Charu Chanana, Saxo chief investment strategist, said in a note on Tuesday. Hong Kong stocks struggled for direction in the past few sessions after the Hang Seng hit its highest level since November 2021 last week. China stocks pause rally as investors eye Politburo meeting 'Most likely, people are taking some money off the table before the Hang Seng Index futures that expire tomorrow (to book gains),' said Steven Leung, executive director at broker UOB Kay Hian. Healthcare extended their rally to lead gains, with Hong Kong-listed healthcare stocks jumping 3.8%, biotech companies listed in mainland A-shares advancing 3%. China's announced measures to boost birthrate through an annual childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan (about $500) until age three, but markets reacted relatively mutely. Infant formula maker Beingmate and China Feihe rose 3.5% and 0.4% respectively, while Jinxin Fertility went down 4%. 'As the subsidy is relatively small, we don't think the birth rate will significantly increase in coming years,' Ting Lu, Nomura chief China economist, said in a note. Smaller Shenzhen index ended up 0.46% and the start-up board ChiNext Composite index was higher by 1.862%.
India Today
04-07-2025
- Business
- India Today
Global trading firm Jane Street banned by Sebi from securities market
Sebi has barred US-based trading firm Jane Street Group from participating in the country's securities market. This move comes after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) accused the firm of making unlawful gains through equity derivatives trading."Entities are restrained from accessing the securities market and are further prohibited from buying, selling or otherwise dealing in securities, directly or indirectly," said Sebi in its order pertaining to Jane to an order published on Sebi's website, the regulator has ordered the seizure of Rs 48.4 billion (approximately $570 million), which it claims is the total amount of illegal profit made by Jane Street. Sebi has also directed Indian banks to ensure that no funds can be withdrawn from the firm's accounts without the regulator's approval."The total amount of unlawful gains earned by the JS Group from the alleged violations, as provided in Table 44i.e. Rs 4,843,57,70,168/-(Four Thousand Eight Hundred Forty-Three Crore Fifty Seven Lakh Seventy Thousand One Hundred and Sixty Eight Rupees only), shall be impounded, jointly and severally," said Sebi in its order. SEBI BANS JANE STREET FROM TRADINGSebi's order states that Jane Street Group and its related entities 'are restrained from accessing the securities market and are further prohibited from buying, selling or otherwise dealing in securities, directly or indirectly.'This decision effectively blocks the firm's operations in India's fast-growing equity derivatives market. The regulator did not specify the exact time period during which the alleged trading violations occurred, but the order reflects a significant crackdown on overseas institutional players operating in the MADE $2.3 BILLION IN DERIVATIVE REVENUEJane Street is one of the most active trading firms in the world, operating in equities, bonds, ETFs, and derivatives. The Bloomberg report notes that the firm generated more than $2.3 billion in net revenue from equity derivatives in India last year action is likely to affect not just Jane Street's India operations, but also send a strong message to other foreign entities involved in aggressive trading GROWING MORE WATCHFUL OF FOREIGN PLAYERSSebi has been investigating Jane Street's derivatives activity following complaints from certain market participants, who alleged that the firm's trades amounted to market manipulation. While details of the investigation remain confidential, the action suggests a deeper scrutiny of high-frequency trading behaviour in the Indian market.'This may signal Sebi's growing vigilance and willingness to assert control over foreign institutional activity making hefty gains in its derivatives market — particularly where such strategies blur the line between smart trading and market distortion,' Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore told DERIVATIVES MARKET UNDER THE SPOTLIGHTIndia is now the world's largest derivatives market by number of contracts traded. It has seen a rapid rise in foreign institutional interest, especially from firms like Citadel Securities, Optiver, and Jane Street. The country's market is also experiencing a surge in retail investor participation, with options premiums having increased 11 times in the past five the booming activity has also raised concerns among regulators about volatility, speculation, and possible manipulation in the market. Sebi's move against Jane Street is being seen as a sign that the regulator is willing to take strict action when it believes the trading environment is being exploited unfairly.- Ends advertisement
Kuwait Times
24-06-2025
- Business
- Kuwait Times
Shares dither, oil spikes as investors mull Iran risks
LONDON: World shares slipped on Monday and oil prices rose towards five-month highs before retracing gains as investors awaited possible retaliation from Iran following US attacks on its nuclear sites, with knock-on risks to global trade and inflation. Equities remained restrained, with the dollar getting a modest safe-haven bid and no sign of a rush to bonds. Oil prices whipsawed, rising to their highest since January during Asia trading, then falling back to flat, and were last up over 1 percent. US futures pointed towards a muted open on Wall Street. S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.1 percent while Nasdaq futures steadied. 'If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, maybe you don't understand the situation,' said Paul Jackson Invesco's global head of asset allocation research. 'Whether a lack of market reaction is naiveté, or a proper assessment of the situation, time will tell,' he said. European shares fell after midday with the pan-European STOXX 600 index down over 0.3 percent. Some market participants hoped Iran might back down, with its nuclear ambitions curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. 'That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively,' said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 km wide at its narrowest point and around a quarter of global oil trade and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas supplies pass through it. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 percent and averaging a 30 percent rise over time. Goldman Sachs warned prices could temporarily touch $110 a barrel should the critical waterway be closed for a month. For now, Brent and US crude were both up over 82 cents to $77.83 and 85 cents to $74.68 a barrel, respectively. Gold also rose 0.4 percent to $3,381 an ounce. Resilience World share markets, especially in Asia, struggled. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9 percent, dragged down by shares in Taiwan which closed 1.42 percent lower, while Chinese blue chips closed higher 0.3 percent and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.1 percent. Japan's manufacturing activity data on Monday showed a return to growth in June after nearly a year of contraction, but demand conditions remain. The main buyers of Iranian oil are Chinese private refiners, some of whom have recently been placed on the US Treasury sanctions list. There is little evidence, however, that this has impacted flows from Iran to China significantly. The dollar firmed 1.25 percent against the yen and was last at 147.885, at its highest since May 15, while the euro dipped 0.5 percent to $1.1466. The dollar index firmed marginally to 99.299. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising about 2 basis points to 4.389 percent. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed Governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy, leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from lawmakers, which will likely cover US tariffs and the attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe. — Reuters
Mid East Info
24-06-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
Making sense of the US–Iran conflict for investors – Saxo Bank MENA - Middle East Business News and Information
Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist, Saxo Bank Markets were jolted this weekend as the US, under President Trump, launched airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites, marking a historic escalation in Middle East tensions. The move came without Congressional approval, raising not just geopolitical risk—but also questions about US institutional stability and global investor confidence in US leadership. While the full scope of Iran's retaliation remains unclear, one key lever is already in focus: the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage controlling roughly 1 in 5 barrels of daily global oil flows. Iran doesn't need to shut it down completely; the threat alone is enough to stir markets, pressure inflation expectations, and ripple through asset classes. Markets now face overlapping risks: energy disruption, inflation shock, delayed rate cuts, and rising global macro uncertainty. Why this is not the time for complacency President Trump's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend casts a shadow over the outlook for equities and other risk-sensitive assets. While the market's initial reaction appears contained, investors should be cautious about becoming complacent. Here's why: Oil markets are under pressure, not relaxed: Monday's oil spike may have faded somewhat intraday, but the broader trend reflects building pressure on global energy supply chains. Even without a direct shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, higher shipping costs and insurance premiums could lift energy prices in a more sustained way. Crude prices + global fragility = macro risk: A sustained rise in oil prices alongside weak global growth could create renewed stagflation fears — a classic headwind for equities and consumer sentiment. Rate cuts could be delayed : Central banks may become more cautious about easing too quickly if rising energy costs drive inflation expectations higher. In the US, that comes on top of already sticky inflation and tariff-related concerns, along with institutional risks with President Trump pushing the Fed to cut rates and raising questions about policy independence. Policy unpredictability is a risk in itself: Trump's abrupt pivot from 'wait and see' to launching strikes reinforces a sense of strategic instability. For businesses and investors, that raises the bar for deploying long-term capital with confidence. What to watch next Iran's response: A direct strike on US forces or the Strait of Hormuz would be an inflection point for markets. Oil price trajectory: A sustained move above $100/bbl would drive inflation shock trades. US bond market reaction: Whether yields fall on haven demand or rise on inflation fears will shape broader asset flows. Dollar dynamics: Watch if this becomes a full-blown short squeeze in the dollar, tightening financial conditions globally. Global equity rotation: Asian and European markets, especially energy importers, may struggle. Defense and energy sectors are likely to be more resilient. Portfolio strategy considerations for investors Not investment advice — just clarity on key exposures and potential implications as uncertainty rises. Energy exposure may provide a hedge Energy producers may benefit from higher oil prices. Energy equity ETFs offer diversified access to oil majors and service companies — without needing to trade crude futures directly. Defense and gold miners can reflect geopolitical uncertainty Defense contractors and gold miners may gain more attention if tensions escalate further. These sectors have historically been sought out during geopolitical flare-ups and rising inflation concerns, and offer resilience in the face of volatility especially if portfolios have more relative cyclical exposure to say tech or consumer discretionary. Gold's classic hedge qualities may, however, come under the scanner if yields rise or dollar strengthens significantly. Be cautious on EM Asia and European exposure Countries with high oil import dependency — such as India, Thailand, the Philippines, and much of Europe — could face multiple headwinds: rising energy costs, weaker currencies, and capital outflows. Growth concerns in these regions may become more pronounced if energy prices remain elevated. By contrast, the U.S., as a net energy exporter, may be relatively more insulated from rising oil prices in economic terms, though not immune to broader market volatility. Review high-growth exposure Sectors sensitive to interest rates and input costs—like high-growth tech or early-stage innovation—could face margin pressure and valuation resets if rate cuts are delayed and inflation expectations rise. This doesn't mean exit, but reflect on your time horizon and risk tolerance — especially if you're highly concentrated. Fixed income for balance Short-duration bond funds or flexible strategies may help reduce interest rate sensitivity while still offering yield, especially if long-end bond markets get whipsawed by competing inflation and haven narratives.
