Latest news with #ChrisStokes
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Scientists issue warning over crisis that will force millions from their homes: 'We're starting to see some of the worst-case scenarios play out'
Sea level rise has long been seen as a distant consequence of our planet's overheating. But new research reveals it's accelerating faster than expected — and we may be approaching a point where even our best efforts won't be enough to hold back the tide. A new study published in the Communications Earth & Environment journal warns that rising seas — fueled by melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica — are on track to trigger "catastrophic inland migration" worldwide. Even if global heating remains below 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), sea level rise could still reach a rate of one centimeter per year by 2100 — faster than most nations can build coastal defenses. That's bad news for the 230 million people who live just three feet above sea level — and the one billion who live within 30 feet. The study notes that even a modest eight inches (20 centimeters) of sea rise by 2050 could cause $1 trillion in flood damages annually across 136 major cities. "We're starting to see some of the worst-case scenarios play out almost in front of us," said professor Chris Stokes, the study's lead author. This isn't just a coastal problem. Sea level rise threatens homes, livelihoods, food systems, and clean water access. As the ocean creeps inland, saltwater infiltrates farmland and drinking water supplies. Flood-prone communities face mounting physical and financial strain. And when local infrastructure can't keep up, people are forced to relocate — sometimes permanently. This risk is especially dire for lower-income nations like Bangladesh, where protective systems are limited. But even wealthier places like the UK could lose large swaths of land, such as the Fens and Humberside, with just three feet of sea level rise. The root cause? Heat-trapping pollution from dirty energy sources like coal, oil, and gas. These fuels warm the atmosphere, accelerate ice melt, and lock in long-term environmental changes, including sea level rise that can't be undone for thousands of years, even if pollution stops. The saving grace? Every fraction of a degree we prevent makes a difference. Slashing planet-overheating pollution can slow the rate of sea level rise, buying us time to prepare and adapt. Governments are investing in smarter defenses, like floating cities in the Maldives and "smart reefs" that reduce storm surge risks. On an individual level, actions can be undertaken to reduce reliance on dirty energy. Installing solar panels paired with battery systems is a big way to lower energy bills while making your home more resilient against flooding and power outages. EnergySage makes it easy to compare quotes from vetted local installers and save up to $10,000 on solar. Sea level rise may be inevitable, but mass displacement doesn't have to be. With smart policy, community planning, and individual action, we can hold the line and protect the places we call home. Do you think your house could withstand a hurricane? No way Maybe a weak one I'm not sure It definitely could Click your choice to see results and speak your mind. Join our free newsletter for good news and useful tips, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.
Asharq Al-Awsat
26-05-2025
- Science
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Sea Level Rise Expected to Accelerate
Rising seas will severely test humanity's resilience in the second half of the 21st century and beyond, even if nations defy the odds and cap global warming at the ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius target, researchers said last week. The pace at which global oceans are rising has doubled in three decades, and on current trends will double again by 2100 to about one centimeter per year, they reported in a study. 'Limiting global warming to 1.5C would be a major achievement' and avoid many dire climate impacts, lead author Chris Stokes, a professor at Durham University in England, told AFP on Saturday. 'But even if this target is met,' he added, 'sea level rise is likely to accelerate to rates that are very difficult to adapt to.' Absent protective measures such as sea walls, an additional 20 centimeters (7.8 inches) of sea level rise—the width of a letter-size sheet of paper—by 2050 would cause some $1 trillion in flood damage annually in the world's 136 largest coastal cities, earlier research has shown. Some 230 million people live on land within one meter (3.2 feet) of sea level, and more than a billion reside within 10 meters. Sea level rise is driven in roughly equal measure by the disintegration of ice sheets and mountain glaciers, as well as the expansion of warming oceans, which absorb more than 90% of the excess heat due to climate change. Averaged across 20 years, Earth's surface temperature is currently 1.2C above pre-industrial levels, already enough to lift the ocean watermark by several meters over the coming centuries, Stokes and colleagues noted in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. The world is on track to see temperatures rise 2.7C above that benchmark by the end of the century. Tipping points In a review of scientific literature since the last major climate assessment by the UN-mandated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Stokes and his team focused on the growing contribution of ice sheets to rising seas. In 2021, the IPCC projected 'likely' sea level rise of 40 to 80 centimeters by 2100, depending on how quickly humanity draws down greenhouse gas emissions, but left ice sheets out of their calculations due to uncertainty. The picture has become alarmingly more clear since then. 'We are probably heading for the higher numbers within that range, possibly higher,' said Stokes. Satellite data has revealed that ice sheets with enough frozen water to lift oceans some 65 meters are far more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected. The amount of ice melting or breaking off into the ocean from Greenland and West Antarctica, now averaging about 400 billion tons a year, has quadrupled over the last three decades, eclipsing runoff from mountain glaciers. 'We used to think that Greenland wouldn't do anything until the world warmed 3C,' said Stokes. 'Now the consensus for tipping points for Greenland and West Antarctica is about 1.5C.' 'If you want to slow sea level rise from ice sheets, you clearly have to cool back from present-day temperatures,' Stokes told AFP. 'To slow sea level rise from ice sheets to a manageable level requires a long-term temperature goal that is close to +1C, or possibly lower.'
NDTV
21-05-2025
- Science
- NDTV
Major Ice Sheets May Already Be Past The Point Of No Return: Study
New Delhi: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting fast, and the process may be impossible to stop, a new study has warned. This could lead to several feet of sea level rise and force millions to leave coastal areas. Even if global warming is capped at the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold agreed upon by world leaders, the melting may continue unabated, scientists added. Published on Tuesday in Nature, the study brings together findings from satellite data, climate models, and paleoclimate records, including ice cores, deep-sea sediments, and even octopus DNA, to determine the "safe limit" of warming for the survival of Earth's largest ice sheets. The results say that even current warming levels of around 1.2 degree C could set off unstoppable ice sheet retreat. And with the world on track for up to 2.9 degree C of warming by 2100 if emissions continue, the situation could become much worse. Together, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets contain enough frozen water to raise global sea levels by approximately 213 feet. While such an outcome is considered extreme, the study says there is a risk of major, multi-foot sea level rise over time. Ice loss from these regions has quadrupled since the 1990s, with around 370 billion tons melting each year, making them the biggest contributors to rising seas. The pace of sea level rise has doubled in the past 30 years. "You don't slow sea level rise to 1.5, in fact, you see quite a rapid acceleration," Chris Stokes, glaciologist and study co-author from Durham University, told CNN. Today, about 230 million people live less than one metre (around 3.2 feet) above sea level. The study warns that even small amounts of ice melting could reshape coastlines, force hundreds of millions to move, and cause damage beyond what many places can handle. By 2100, sea levels could rise by 0.4 inches every year, adding up to around 40 inches over the century. Scientists say it is hard to know exactly when ice sheets will hit a tipping point, but the danger is closer than they thought. Earlier research suggested the Greenland ice sheet would only start collapsing at around 3 degree C of warming. Now, it may happen at just 1.5 degree C. To stop this, global warming would need to be kept closer to 1 degree C, which means cutting fossil fuel use sharply. With countries like the US still using oil, coal, and gas, experts say this goal is unlikely. "There's very little that we are observing that gives us hope here," said Mr Stokes. "The absolute best-case scenario is that sea level rise is slow and steady." Still, the researchers say that staying as close as possible to the 1.5 degree C target remains vital. "Limiting warming to 1.5 will be a major achievement. It should absolutely be our target, but in no sense will it slow or stop sea level rise and melting ice sheets," Mr Stokes added.
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Reason Aussies will no longer be able to visit popular holiday islands: 'Very worrying'
As the weather cools around Australia, tropical islands to the north are the perfect escape. But if you've been putting off travel, then this is the wake-up call you might need to go now rather than later. Ice is melting and sea levels are rising faster than previously thought, and scientists are pretty sure low-lying regions of the South Pacific like Vanuatu, Tuvalu, and Micronesia will be lost over the next century, meaning you won't be able to visit them anymore. Global warming currently sits at 1.2 degrees above temperatures before the world industrialised. The Paris Agreement sets a target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, but even if world leaders and industry slash emissions enough to somehow meet that target, new analysis indicates we won't be able to stop accelerated melting of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. Sea level rises over the next centuries will likely be metres, an international team led by Durham University found, after it reviewed the world's best available data. Lead author and geologist Dr Professor Chris Stokes warned the melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will see 'rates of one centimetre per year not out of the question within the lifetime of our young people'. Speaking with Yahoo News from the UK, Stokes explained the problems aren't something to worry about in the distant future, they're already occurring. Asked if he was 'worried', his answer was blunt. 'I'm very worried,' he said. What he's concerned about is the future of the 230 million people who live in an area vulnerable to one metre of sea level rise. 'If you look at the evidence we've presented in our paper, that means we'll have to move a couple of hundred million people, or spend money on coastal defences. Unfortunately, some of the worst-affected countries are those that can least afford to protect themselves,' he said. Any country with a coastline is potentially vulnerable to these kinds of issues, but even landlocked countries may be impacted by migration. This is happening now, but the higher the warming and the longer it is sustained, the greater the sea level rise will be, and the more it will cost us in the long run to adapt.' Globally, there is cause for concern when it comes to slowing global warming. Under the Trump administration, the United States is withdrawing from commitments to tackle the problem, and doubling down on the extraction of fossil fuels — the primary contributor of man-made climate change. Even countries like Australia, which have net-zero ambitions, are continuing to approve large numbers of new fossil fuel projects. The nation is the third largest exporter of fossil fuels in the world and during the 2023-24 financial year, taxpayers handed over $14.5 billion in subsidies to these projects. 💵 EnergyAustralia apologises to 400,000 customers over now deleted website claims 🏝️ Incredible photos show Aussie tourist town on the beach set to disappear 🏠 Driveway photo shows major shift homeowners are making across Australia As the scientists released their new report, which was published in the journal Communications, Earth and Environment, they urged leaders to pay attention to the 'emergency' that's unfolding. 'If you look at what a definition of an emergency is, it's an existential threat that requires immediate action,' Stokes said. 'Yes, things are moving in the right direction, but from a sea level rise perspective, they are not moving anywhere near quickly enough. There has to be a change in our ambition around the need for rapid and drastic cuts in emissions. 'The issue quickly becomes politicised — climate action is going to cost a lot of money and jobs if we aim for net zero by 2030, 2050, 2070. But it will cost an awful lot more if we don't take action. Sea level rise is not going to go away, this is not something we can push under the carpet, it's going to get worse and worse.' Love Australia's weird and wonderful environment? 🐊🦘😳 Get our new newsletter showcasing the week's best stories.
Washington Post
21-05-2025
- Science
- Washington Post
Earth may already be too hot for the survival of polar ice sheets
Ten years ago, policymakers and nation states set the world's most important climate goal: limiting planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). If the Earth could stay below that threshold, a climate catastrophe and major rise in sea levels might be staved off. But a group of scientists have demonstrated that if the world stays on course to warm up to 1.5 degrees — or even stays at its current level of 1.2 degrees above preindustrial levels — polar ice sheets will probably continue to quickly melt, causing seas to rise and displacing coastal communities, according to a study published Tuesday in Communications Earth and Environment. 'There was a kind of misunderstanding that 1.5 was going to solve all our problems,' said Chris Stokes, a professor at Durham University in England who focuses on glaciers and ice sheets, and an author of the study. Now, the team surmised that limit is closer to around 1 degree Celsius, though more research is needed to come to an official conclusion. The team focused on Greenland and Antarctica, behemoth ice sheets that together could raise global sea levels by more than 210 feet if they melted. They are losing around 370 billion metric tons of ice each year at a rate that has quadrupled since the 1990s. To come to their analyses, scientists pored over more than 150 research papers and focused on three aspects of sea-level rise: recent observations of rapidly melting ice sheets, modeling that uses equations to predict how temperatures could affect the rates of ice melting and past sea-level change tens of thousands of years ago. To help gauge how high sea levels could rise over the coming centuries, scientists have looked back at what happened the last time the Earth was as warm as it is now: roughly 125,000 years ago, during a period known to scientists as the Last Interglacial. Back then, research shows, a wobble in Earth's orbit had changed how much sunlight hit the northern hemisphere, raising global temperatures. The warmer conditions allowed Neanderthals to venture into northern Europe. Mammoths and giant ground sloths migrated poleward. And the ice caps covering the Arctic and Antarctica began to melt, raising sea levels around the world. A vast array of ancient evidence — including ice cores, fossils, deep sea sediments and even octopus DNA — allowed the researchers to reconstruct how this sea-level rise unfolded. For example, ancient coral reefs found 25 feet above the current sea surface mark where the water once reached. Bits of bedrock uncovered in the middle of the ocean reveal how icebergs calved off disintegrating glaciers and then drifted across the sea. This research into Earth's ancient climate has revealed that ice sheet collapse depends on complex processes and can happen at surprising speed. Pulses of sudden sea-level rise, when the ocean surface may have risen multiple feet in less than a century, indicated that the ice sheets could have crossed temperature thresholds that caused them to shed mass all at once. The scientists then fed their findings into computer models of the Earth system, allowing them to confirm that the models' outputs matched what actually occurred. This gave them confidence in the models' forecasts for the future, and the results were sobering. 'Every fraction of a degree matters,' said Andrea Dutton, a research professor at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, who was a co-author of the study. 'We can't just adapt to this type of sea-level rise. We can't just engineer our way out of this.' Around 230 million people live within about three feet of sea level, the researchers noted. Over the coming centuries, if the Earth stays at the same temperature, the sea could rise several meters, displacing entire cities and even states. Because of gravitational effects, said Stokes, places closer to the equator, including Pacific islands like Micronesia and some Caribbean islands, will experience more sea-level rise. 'It's an existential threat,' he said. 'Some of these entire states are going to be underwater in a few centuries.'
