Latest news with #CitiResearch
Perth Now
4 days ago
- Business
- Perth Now
China unveils childcare subsidies to boost fertility
Chinese authorities have rolled out a childcare subsidy until the age of three as authorities look to spur a flagging birth rate with fewer young people choosing to have children. An annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan (about $A770) will start from this year, with partial subsidies for children under three born prior to 2025, in a policy expected to benefit more than 20 million families of toddlers and infants, the official Xinhua news agency said. The high cost of childcare and education as well as job uncertainty and a slowing economy are among the concerns that have discouraged many young Chinese from getting married and starting a family. The plan is an "important national livelihood policy" and direct cash subsidies would help "reduce the cost of family childbirth and parenting," the National Health Commission said. China's population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, with experts warning of a worsening downturn after decades of falling birth rates following a one-child policy adopted from 1980 to 2015 coupled with rapid urbanisation. In the past two years provinces across the country have started handing out childcare subsidies in amounts that vary considerably, from 1000 yuan a child to up to 100,000 yuan, including housing subsidies. The central government will fund the new policy instead of local authorities, Xinhua said. Citi Research estimates a total lump-sum payout of 117 billion yuan in the second half of this year through the plan, saying the scheme is more meaningful as a consumption policy than as a population policy. "As a population policy, it remains to be seen whether the national program can move the needle on fertility rate," the research house said in a note. Authorities in China unfurled a series of "fertility friendly" measures in 2024 to tackle the coming decade's challenge of the entry into retirement of roughly 300 million people, equivalent to almost the entire US population. A country-wide scheme may offer some co-ordination and signal greater central commitment, said demographer Emma Zhang, a professor at Yale University, but called for greater efforts. "Without sustained structural investment in areas like affordable childcare, parental leave, and job protections for women, the effect on fertility is likely to remain minimal," she added.
Business Times
22-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Thailand's tourism slump and household debt weigh on its lenders
[BANGKOK] Thailand's banks are grappling with weak lending amid high household debt, slowing tourism and sluggish consumer spending that risk dampening their outlook for the rest of the year. The banks are facing lacklustre earnings tied to lower net interest margins – the difference between interest income and paid interest – and muted loan growth as the country endures economic uncertainties, according to a note from Citi Research. Thailand's export and tourism reliant economy has expanded at an average of under 2 per cent over the past decade, trailing other major South-east Asian economies. Gross domestic product will likely grow 1.3 per cent to 2.3 per cent in 2025, constrained by high household debt and slowing tourist arrivals, while the economy is also at risk of a 36 per cent tariff from the US, its largest export market. Thai banks are expected 'to perform worse than their peers elsewhere in major South-east Asian markets through year-end,' said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sarah Jane Mahmud. Weak domestic lending is compounded by a slowdown in global trade and 'high levels of bad debt to be exacerbated as small businesses struggle with fewer than expected tourist arrivals and competition from an influx of cheap goods from China in the new trade war,' she said. TMBThanachart Bank expects the Thai economy to continue slowing in the third quarter on lower consumption and overall investments, it said in its earnings statement on Jul 18. It posted 5 billion baht (S$198.4 million) in second-quarter net income, a 7.2 per cent year-on-year drop. Kasikornbank posted a 3.2 per cent fall year on year in its second-quarter net profit due to a decline in net interest income in line with market conditions, it said. The lender said it remains focused on expansion of quality loans. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up SCB X expects full-year loan growth to fall below the lower end of its 1 to 3 per cent target, though it reported a 27.7 per cent on-year jump in second-quarter net profit supported by higher investment gains. Bangkok Bank posted a 0.3 per cent on-year rise in its second quarter net profit. Subdued inflationary pressure indicates domestic demand 'has not yet fully recovered,' it said in its recent earnings statement. Kasikornbank and SCB X are forecast to see year-on-year declines in net profit for the third quarter from declining net interest margins due to policy rate cuts, according to Krungsri Securities analyst Chayaporn Tocharoen. 'Loans of Thai commercial banks aren't expected to record growth in the third quarter mainly because of a weak export outlook,' Kasikorn Securities analyst Korakot Sawetkruttamat said. Higher non-performing loans are anticipated in the second half because of lower-than-expected registrations for the government's debt relief programme, he said. Meanwhile, exporters may struggle to repay loans if they face high US tariffs, Korakot said. The Thai government in late 2024 put in place debt-relief measures that included a three-year suspension in interest and reduced principal payments. 'Policy measures, however, require time to crystallise and effect a structural shift,' said Deepali Seth Chhabria, a primary credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings. A lower negotiated tariff would give Thai banks some relief, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sarah Jane said. A rise in wealth management activity in Thailand could also 'help boost fee income and support revenue as net interest income wanes,' she said. BLOOMBERG
Bangkok Post
22-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Thailand's tourism slump and household debt weigh on its lenders
Thailand's banks are grappling with weak lending amid high household debt, slowing tourism and sluggish consumer spending that risk dampening their outlook for the rest of the year. The banks are facing lackluster earnings tied to lower net interest margins — the difference between interest income and paid interest — and muted loan growth as the country endures economic uncertainties, according to a note from Citi Research. Thailand's export and tourism reliant economy has expanded at an average of under 2% over the past decade, trailing other major Southeast Asian economies. Gross domestic product will likely grow 1.3% to 2.3% in 2025, constrained by high household debt and slowing tourist arrivals, while the economy is also at risk of a 36% tariff from the US, its largest export market. Thai banks are expected 'to perform worse than their peers elsewhere in major Southeast Asian markets through year-end,' said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sarah Jane Mahmud. Weak domestic lending is compounded by a slowdown in global trade and 'high levels of bad debt to be exacerbated as small businesses struggle with fewer than expected tourist arrivals and competition from an influx of cheap goods from China in the new trade war,' she said. TMBThanachart Bank expects the Thai economy to continue slowing in the third quarter on lower consumption and overall investments, it said in its earnings statement on July 18. It posted 5 billion baht in second-quarter net income, a 7.2% year-on-year drop. Kasikornbank posted a 3.2% fall year-on-year in its second-quarter net profit due to a decline in net interest income in line with market conditions, it said. The lender said it remains focused on expansion of quality loans. SCB X expects full-year loan growth to fall below the lower end of its 1%-3% target, though it reported a 27.7% on-year jump in second-quarter net profit supported by higher investment gains. Bangkok Bank posted a 0.3% on-year rise in its second quarter net profit. Subdued inflationary pressure indicates domestic demand 'has not yet fully recovered,' it said in its recent earnings statement. Kasikornbank and SCB X are forecast to see year-on-year declines in net profit for the third quarter from declining net interest margins due to policy rate cuts, according to Krungsri Securities analyst Chayaporn Tocharoen. 'Loans of Thai commercial banks aren't expected to record growth in the third quarter mainly because of a weak export outlook,' Kasikorn Securities analyst Korakot Sawetkruttamat said. Higher non-performing loans are anticipated in the second half because of lower-than-expected registrations for the government's debt relief program, he said. Meanwhile, exporters may struggle to repay loans if they face high US tariffs, Mr Korakot said. The Thai government in late 2024 put in place debt-relief measures that included a three-year suspension in interest and reduced principal payments. 'Policy measures, however, require time to crystallise and effect a structural shift,' said Deepali Seth Chhabria, a primary credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings. A lower negotiated tariff would give Thai banks some relief, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sarah Jane said. A rise in wealth management activity in Thailand could also 'help boost fee income and support revenue as net interest income wanes,' she said.
Bloomberg
22-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Thailand's Tourism Slump and Household Debt Weigh on Its Lenders
Thailand's banks are grappling with weak lending amid high household debt, slowing tourism and sluggish consumer spending that risk dampening their outlook for the rest of the year. The banks are facing lackluster earnings tied to lower net interest margins — the difference between interest income and paid interest — and muted loan growth as the country endures economic uncertainties, according to a note from Citi Research.
Wall Street Journal
16-07-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Gold Edges Higher on Possible Position Adjustments
2340 GMT — Gold edges higher in the early Asian session on possible position adjustments. However, diminishing Fed rate-cut expectations spurred by U.S. CPI data released overnight could cap gains. Also, the U.S.' passage of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' and coming trade deals help reduce U.S. growth worries and weigh on gold demand, Citi Research's Kenny Hu says in a research report. 'We continue to highlight our view that we may have seen gold price highs at $3,500/oz as the market deficit is peaking soon, if not already,' the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.2% higher at $3,330.11/oz. (
