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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Will fall be warm or cool in Texas? What the Farmers' Almanac fall 2025 forecast says
Although triple-digit temperatures arrived about six weeks early, Texas has seen a relatively mild summer overall, with wetter-than-normal conditions for this time of year. But in the coming weeks, the Climate Prediction Center expects a shift. Much of the state is forecast to see consistently warmer weather, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. For at least the next four weeks, above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall are likely across Texas. The center's seasonal outlook for August through October shows continued heat, though it projects equal chances of rainfall for this time of year — a promising sign as September and October are typically wetter months in many parts of the state. If the Farmers' Almanac is accurate, fall may bring gradual relief. Its newly released extended forecast, titled Flirty, Flurry Fall, predicts a dry and 'fair' start to the season, ending on a wetter note. The almanac has been forecasting weather — with varying accuracy — since 1818. What is the Farmers' Almanac predicting for Texas' upcoming summer forecast? "As summer fades and the crispness of autumn settles in, Fall 2025 is shaping up to be a season of contrasts across the United States," the almanac states. "From early chills in the North to lingering warmth in the South, and from stormy skies to tranquil stretches, this fall will keep us on our toes." The almanac's 200-year-old formula — based on mathematical and astronomical patterns — predicts a 'fair, dry start' to fall with a 'wet finish' in the South Central, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas and Louisiana. Throughout the season, the coldest conditions are expected to settle over the North Central states and the interior Northeast, especially from late October into November. In contrast, the Southeast and Southwest are forecast to experience milder, more stable weather — though not without the occasional storm. The wettest regions this fall will likely include the Great Lakes, Northeast, and parts of the Southeast, while the driest conditions are expected across the Southwest and portions of the West Coast, according to the almanac. Already counting down to spooky season? The almanac forecasts 'wet, then clearing skies' from Oct. 28–31 — so you might want to keep an umbrella or raincoat handy this Halloween, just in case. When do temperatures normally cool down in Texas? Across most of Texas, temperatures finally begin to cool in October, with average highs finally dipping below the triple-digit mark. Here's a look at the earliest, latest and average last 100-degree day recorded across the state since 1940, according to data from the National Weather Service. Austin Earliest: June 13 (1942) Latest: Oct. 13 (2024) Average: Aug. 24 Amarillo Earliest: June 14 (2004) Latest: Sept. 19 (2024) Average: Aug. 5 Dallas-Fort Worth Earliest: July 13 (2004) Latest: Oct. 3 (1951) Average: Aug. 29 El Paso Earliest: June 18 (1941) Latest: Sept. 27 (2024) Average: Aug. 11 Houston Earliest: June 13 (2006) Latest: Sept. 27 (2005) Average: Aug. 15 Lubbock Earliest: May 11 (1962) Latest: Oct. 3 (2000) Average: Aug. 2 Midland-Odessa Earliest: June 9 (1988) Latest: Oct. 8 (1979) Average: Aug. 21 San Antonio Earliest: July 4 (1970) Latest: Oct. 4 (2023) Average: Aug. 26 Tyler Earliest: July 12 (1955) Latest: Sept. 26 (2005) Average: Aug. 21 Waco Earliest: July 22 (1971) Latest: Oct. 15 (2024) Average: Aug. 31 Wichita Falls Earliest: June 27 (1950) Latest: Oct. 17 (1972) Average: Sept. 5 This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: When will Texas start to cool? What the Farmers' Almanac says for fall Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Will California get cooler temperatures this fall? What NOAA, Old Farmer's Almanac predict
Californians should brace for a warmer-than-usual autumn this year, with the Old Farmer's Almanac and the National Weather Service both predicting elevated temperatures across the state. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts seasonal weather conditions every year for the United States, and its new 2025 autumn weather forecast shows vast swaths of the country, including California, could experience a warm and dry fall season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is also predicting above-normal temperatures nationwide for the autumn months. From the Central Valley to the Southern Coast, fall 2025 is shaping up to be dry and steamy for California, especially in September, when scattered thunderstorms may briefly interrupt the heat. While Northern California may see some regional showers by October, Southern California is expected to remain largely parched. Here's what to know about predicted conditions in California this fall from the Almanac and the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center: What is the Old Farmer's Almanac prediction for fall 2025 in California? The Old Farmer's Almanac fall 2025 weather forecast for California predicts a warm start to the season in Northern California, with scattered thunderstorms expected in early and mid-September. As the season progresses into October, the weather is expected to cool down, accompanied by regional showers later in the month. Here are the key highlights: September: Warm with intermittent thunderstorms. October: Average temperature around 76°F, which is near normal. Rainfall is forecasted at 2.5 inches, about 2 inches below normal The Old Farmer's Almanac fall 2025 forecast for Southern California anticipates a warmer-than-normal autumn with below-average rainfall. September: Temperature: Warmer than normal. Precipitation: Below average. October: Temperature: Still above average, though slightly cooler than September. Precipitation: Remains below normal. The Almanac suggests a 'steamy' start to fall, with above-normal hurricane activity nationally, though direct impacts on Southern California are unlikely. What is the National Weather Service's fall forecast? These predictions are essentially in line with those of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. The weather agency's three-month outlook for September, October, and November 2025 indicates that the probability of above-normal temperatures for most of California ranges from 33% to 50%. Chances for above-normal temperatures are greater in eastern California. The agency's rain forecast for the same three-month period indicates "equal chances" of above-normal, below-normal, and near-normal precipitation totals for California. Staying cool when it's hot The National Weather Service recommends that people who are highly sensitive to heat stay hydrated, keep windows open at night, and wear light clothing. Here are some more heat precautions: Immediately move to a cooler place and rest at the first signs of heat illness Go outside during the cooler parts of the day Take a lot of breaks when working outdoors What's the difference between heat exhaustion and heat stroke? People experiencing heat exhaustion may feel dizzy, thirsty, sweat heavily, experience nausea, and feel weak. They may also experience cramps, clammy skin, and a weak pulse. Someone experiencing heat stroke can have a body temperature above 103 degrees, hot and red skin, a fast pulse, and a headache. They also might be confused or have lost consciousness. It's essential to call 911 right away if someone has heat stroke. This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Will California cool down? What the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts Solve the daily Crossword
San Francisco Chronicle
5 days ago
- Climate
- San Francisco Chronicle
This is what is keeping California cool while the rest of the U.S. sizzles
While much of the country has endured a barrage of historic floods and punishing heat and humidity this month, California's summer has been surprisingly tame. The Bay Area is already on track for one of its coolest starts to summer in decades, and forecast data suggest that trend isn't going anywhere. The Climate Prediction Center calls for continued below average temperatures across the state, essentially through the end of the month. The lingering cool trend is a result of a broader atmospheric setup that's been locked in for weeks. East of the Rocky Mountains, a sprawling and stubborn Bermuda high pressure system is pumping in heat, humidity and bouts of heavy rain. But over California, the jet stream has flattened into a fast-moving west-to-east flow of winds, interrupted only occasionally by subtle dips in the upper atmosphere. UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain described this pattern as a ' sticky weak disturbance,' and the setup has been on repeat since early June. The airflow around a stronger than normal North Pacific High continues to stir up cooler water along the West Coast, while driving a surge of warm water across the central Pacific. This sets up a positive feedback loop; cooler coastal waters sharpen the daily temperature and pressure gradients from the ocean to the Central Valley, which enhance onshore winds and reinforce the cloud deck. The result is more marine layer influence, lower high temperatures, especially near the coast. It's not just the coast that's feeling the cooler temperatures. Inland areas that typically bake this time of year like the Central Valley, interior Bay Area and the high deserts, have struggled to mount any multiday heat waves. The kind of prolonged, widespread heat events California saw in July 2024 require a robust high pressure ridge centered closer to California, something that just hasn't materialized so far this summer. The extended 8- to 14-day temperature outlook shows a similar pattern, with continued cool conditions across California. Still, the state won't avoid the heat altogether. Brief surges into the triple digits remain likely in places like Redding, Fresno and Palm Springs. But those hot spells will be short-lived and the marine influence will remain strong along the coast. The cooler temperatures, both daytime and overnight, help tamp down fire weather risks. But as we push deeper into summer and fuels continue to dry, fire activity is still expected to increase. Wednesday's weather in the Bay Area will be a continuation of the pattern, with daytime highs running about 10 degrees below normal and marking the coolest day of the week. Wednesday outlook San Francisco: A thick marine layer will generate patches of drizzle in the early morning. And from there, the clouds will be slower to retreat to the coast than yesterday. But retreat they will, leaving a mostly sunny Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will top out in the low 60s west of the Twin Peaks and in the mid-60s downtown and in the Mission. Winds from the southwest pick up during the afternoon and clouds will return after dark, with lows in the mid-50s. North Bay: Pockets of drizzle will develop in Santa Rosa and along the Marin coast in the morning. Cloud cover from the marine layer will extend all the way back to Fairfield, but they will quickly break up by the early afternoon. Despite the sunshine, it's another cool day, with temperatures in the low to mid-70s. More clouds and drizzle overnight with lows in the 50s. East Bay: A thick cloud deck will extend all the way to I-680 in the morning. Things will clear up rather quickly across the interior and south of Oakland, with clouds hanging on a bit longer in Berkeley and Richmond. Temperatures will range from the upper 60s to low 70s in the I-580/I-80 stretch, with highs in the mid-70s to around 80 degrees in Hayward, Concord and Livermore. Mostly cloudy again overnight with lows in the mid- to upper 50s. Pacific Coast and Peninsula: Does the Pacific Coast see the sun this day? It's a tossup. Some sunshine may break through the clouds in the afternoon from Half Moon Bay up to Pacifica with temperatures in the low 60s. The rest of the Peninsula east of Skyline Boulevard will clear up earlier, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in South San Francisco, the low 70s in San Mateo and the mid-70s in Redwood City. The clouds return overnight with pockets of drizzle along the coast and lows in the 50s. South Bay and Santa Cruz: A predominantly southwesterly wind will keep the clouds locked and temperatures muted for a good part of the day in Santa Cruz, where it will be a struggle to hit 70 degrees. The South Bay will once again be the warm spot in the region, with temperature in the low 80s. Mostly cloudy again overnight with lows in the mid-50s.
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Global climate pattern shows signs of shifting. What will happen in the US?
Early signs of a possible La Niña fall and winter are emerging in some climate models, federal forecasters announced July 10. La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region. It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite of the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is at least 0.9 degree warmer than average for three months. La Niña and El Niño typically have minimal impact on summer weather in the United States, other than some effects on hurricanes. Winter is the one season when they have the most impact. A typical La Niña winter in the United States brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the Southern states, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic also tend to see higher-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. Meanwhile, New England and the Upper Midwest, including New York, tend to see lower-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said. More: Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update. The typical impacts of a La Niña winter in North America include a wetter, colder winter in parts of the northern United States and a drier, warmer winter in parts of the southern United States. La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degree Fahrenheit below average for three straight months, a La Niña is declared. "While this may sound like a small change in temperature, it can cause significant changes in the weather patterns around the globe," AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said. In general, La Niña conditions favor hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico. This is because during La Niña, the strong storm-killing winds known as wind shear relax across the Atlantic basin, allowing hurricanes to more easily develop. Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, in a July 10 email to USA TODAY, explained that "while Caribbean shear has been quite strong in June and is likely to remain strong throughout most of July, the potential trend more towards cool neutral (or even weak La Niña) later in the season may result in lower shear in the Caribbean later in the season." The lower the wind shear, the greater the chance for hurricane development in the Atlantic basin. But the status of ENSO is only part of the hurricane puzzle: Twenty years ago, in 2005, for instance, ENSO-neutral conditions also occurred in the Pacific ‒ and that year spawned the infamously destructive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the National Weather Service said in an online report. Right now, it appears to be a toss-up. While so-called "ENSO-neutral" conditions are most likely through the late summer, thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said July 10. In fact, one climate model used by the CPC – the North American Multi-Model Ensemble – "favors the onset of La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall," the CPC said in its monthly update. Japan's weather bureau also announced July 10 that there is a 40% chance of La Niña emerging in the fall. Overall, the CPC said the chances for La Niña remain comparable to the likelihood of ENSO-neutral continuing. ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño (warmer waters) nor La Niña (cooler waters) conditions are dominant in the Pacific. While El Niño and La Niña have expected impacts on global seasonal weather and climate, what about neutral? "ENSO-neutral doesn't mean we expect upcoming seasonal rain, snow, and temperature to be close to average," writes Emily Becker in the CPC's ENSO blog. "Rather, during neutral, we don't have the same predictive information that El Niño and La Niña's atmospheric changes provide, making upcoming patterns harder to predict very far in advance." Contributing: Reuters This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2025 La Niña forecast says major shift may be brewing
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Global climate troublemaker La Niña may arrive later in 2025
Early signs of a possible La Niña fall and winter are emerging in some climate models, federal forecasters announced July 10. La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region. It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite to the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is at least 0.9 degree warmer than average for three months. La Niña and El Niño typically have minimal impact on summer weather in the U.S., other than some effects on hurricanes. Winter is the one season when they have the most impact. A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the Southern states, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic also tend to see higher-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. Meanwhile, New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see lower-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said. More: Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update. The typical impacts of a La Niña winter in North America include a wetter, colder winter in parts of the northern United States and a drier, warmer winter in parts of the southern United States. La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degree Fahrenheit below average for three straight months, a La Niña is declared. "While this may sound like a small change in temperature, it can cause significant changes in the weather patterns around the globe," AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said. In general, La Niña conditions favor hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America. This is because during La Niña, the strong storm-killing winds known as wind shear relax across the Atlantic basin, allowing hurricanes to more easily develop. Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, in a July 10 e-mail to USA TODAY, explained that "while Caribbean shear has been quite strong in June and is likely to remain strong throughout most of July, the potential trend more towards cool neutral (or even weak La Niña) later in the season may result in lower shear in the Caribbean later in the season." The lower the wind shear, the greater the chance for hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, as this map shows: But the status of ENSO is only part of the hurricane puzzle: Twenty years ago, in 2005, for instance, ENSO-neutral conditions also occurred in the Pacific ‒ and that year spawned the infamously destructive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the National Weather Service said in an online report. Right now, it appears to be a toss-up. While so-called "ENSO-neutral" conditions are most likely through the late summer 2025, thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said July 10. In fact, one climate model used by the CPC – the North American Multi-Model Ensemble – "favors the onset of La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall," the CPC said in its monthly update. Japan's weather bureau also announced July 10 that there is a 40% chance of La Niña emerging in the fall. Overall, the CPC said the chances for La Niña remain comparable to the likelihood of ENSO-neutral continuing. ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño (warmer waters) nor La Niña (cooler waters) conditions are dominant in the Pacific. While El Niño and La Niña have expected impacts on global seasonal weather and climate, what about neutral? "ENSO-neutral doesn't mean we expect upcoming seasonal rain, snow, and temperature to be close to average," writes Emily Becker in the CPCs' ENSO blog. "Rather, during neutral, we don't have the same predictive information that El Niño and La Niña's atmospheric changes provide, making upcoming patterns harder to predict very far in advance." Contributing: Reuters This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Global climate troublemaker La Niña may be brewing
