Latest news with #ClimatePredictionCenter

Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Wet and stormy 2nd half of May brings beneficial moisture
ST. JOSEPH, Mo. (News-Press NOW) — Recent weeks have brought beneficial rains across the Mid-Missouri River Valley, watering soils and keeping new vegetation lush and green. May got off to a dry start locally and regionally, with over two weeks of little to no precipitation and above-average temperatures. From May 1 to May 17, only a trace of rain fell in St. Joseph, allowing moderate drought conditions to expand into much of Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas. Nearly two weeks later, the May rainfall deficit has almost disappeared completely, thanks to a wet and stormy pattern. As of 2:00 p.m. on Thursday, May 29, 2025, a total of 4.31 inches of rain has been recorded at St. Joseph's Rosecrans Memorial Airport, just shy of the monthly average of 4.87 inches. In a 24-hour period on May 18–19, 2.72 inches of rain fell — more than half of both the current monthly total and the average. Subsequent bouts of slow and steady rain that made for a less than ideal Memorial Day Weekend added just under 2 inches of additional rainfall to the total. Water levels on the Missouri River and other local waterways have recovered considerably after recent rains, after falling below normal earlier this month. The Missouri River has risen by several feet at the downtown St. Joseph gauge, from its low point of 5.6 feet on May 16, to a high point of 8 feet by May 23rd. As of May 29, levels have settled to around 7.6 feet — a normal figure for this time of year. Aside from river levels, soil moisture and drought conditions have also improved from recent rains. Halfway through May, almost 7% of Missouri was in Moderate drought, — this included the majority of Northwest Missouri from Interstate 35 westward to the Kansas border. As of May 27, that figure is down to 3% with a small patch of moderate drought still present in Holt, and parts of Nodaway and Atchison counties. According to the Climate Prediction Center's extended outlook, the next 6 to 14 days is likely to bring near to just above average precipitation across the Central Plains. A pattern that will likely keep widespread drought development at bay as the first month of meteorological summer begins.

Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Wet and stormy 2nd half of May brings beneficial moisture
ST. JOSEPH, Mo. (News-Press NOW) — Recent weeks have brought beneficial rains across the Mid-Missouri River Valley, watering soils and keeping new vegetation lush and green. May got off to a dry start locally and regionally, with over two weeks of little to no precipitation and above-average temperatures. From May 1 to May 17, only a trace of rain fell in St. Joseph, allowing moderate drought conditions to expand into much of Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas. Nearly two weeks later, the May rainfall deficit has almost disappeared completely, thanks to a wet and stormy pattern. As of 2:00 p.m. on Thursday, May 29, 2025, a total of 4.31 inches of rain has been recorded at St. Joseph's Rosecrans Memorial Airport, just shy of the monthly average of 4.87 inches. In a 24-hour period on May 18–19, 2.72 inches of rain fell — more than half of both the current monthly total and the average. Subsequent bouts of slow and steady rain that made for a less than ideal Memorial Day Weekend added just under 2 inches of additional rainfall to the total. Water levels on the Missouri River and other local waterways have recovered considerably after recent rains, after falling below normal earlier this month. The Missouri River has risen by several feet at the downtown St. Joseph gauge, from its low point of 5.6 feet on May 16, to a high point of 8 feet by May 23rd. As of May 29, levels have settled to around 7.6 feet — a normal figure for this time of year. Aside from river levels, soil moisture and drought conditions have also improved from recent rains. Halfway through May, almost 7% of Missouri was in Moderate drought, — this included the majority of Northwest Missouri from Interstate 35 westward to the Kansas border. As of May 27, that figure is down to 3% with a small patch of moderate drought still present in Holt, and parts of Nodaway and Atchison counties. According to the Climate Prediction Center's extended outlook, the next 6 to 14 days is likely to bring near to just above average precipitation across the Central Plains. A pattern that will likely keep widespread drought development at bay as the first month of meteorological summer begins.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Triple-digit heat in forecast as California braces for scorching summer
Much of California is set for its first heat wave of the season, as weather experts predict several parts of the state could experience record-high temperatures. The surge of warmth is expected to sweep across the state, peaking on Friday, May 30. Temperatures could soar near or above 100 degrees in the warmest deserts and valleys this weekend, said Heather Zehr, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather on May 27. "Really, this is the first widespread heat wave of the season," said Zehr, adding those areas are already under an extreme heat watch. "While there have been some heat cells, a couple of days here and there that's been shorter in duration, but in terms of the scope of the land area, this is the first." In California's Central Valley, triple digits are likely, as some locations could break daily records, according to the National Weather Service in Los Angeles. Redding is forecast to hit up to 109 degrees on May 30, which would tie the city's all-time May record set in 2021, the agency said. Sacramento also could reach a high of 105 degrees on May 30, and Bakersfield could see a high of 106 degrees on May 31, the weather service added. Other cities with the greatest chance of breaking record highs include Paso Robles, Ojai, Palmdale and Lancaster, the weather service said. "There is an increasing chance — 30% to 40% — of Friday's highs approaching or breaking calendar daytime record(s) across some valley and desert areas," the agency said in its May 27 forecast. The triple-digit temps could extend into eastern parts of the San Francisco Bay Area as well. "There's definitely a significant warm-up expected in those areas, especially this Friday and Saturday," said Ryan Kittell, a weather service meteorologist based in Los Angeles. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across most of California by Friday, May 30. However, cooler temps are expected throughout California by next weekend, Kittell said. Hot, hot, hot: Here's what Old Farmer's Almanac is predicting for summer 2025 in California The anticipated post-Memorial Day weekend heat wave in California comes as the weather service's latest three-month outlook on May 15 predicted temperatures in June, July and August will be "above normal" this summer. ''Normal' is based on the average of all temperatures from 1991 to 2020,' the weather service said. Additionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center also predicts that this summer, California and the rest of the contiguous United States will experience above-average temperatures. Meteorological summer starts on June 1. And the astronomical summer, which is marked by the summer solstice, begins on June 20. A primer: All your questions about the 2025 hurricane season answered About 22.7 million Californians were living in areas affected by drought, according to a report released by the National Integrated Drought Information System on May 23. Overall, nearly 40% of California is experiencing drought conditions, with 18.3% classified as abnormally dry, 15.1% in moderate drought, 17.6% in severe drought, 7.0% in extreme drought and 0.1% in exceptional drought, a May 20 report said. "The drought is pretty much focused on the southern part of the state," Kittell said. "Most of California doesn't get much rain during the summer months, so for the vast majority of the state, it will be dry.". Weather Service working with less: First came the weather service staffing cuts. Then came the tornadoes. AccuWeather's Zehr also warns that the combination of intense to extreme heat, low humidity and dry vegetation could also increase the risk of wildfires sparking across the state. California is still recovering from the Palisades and Eaton fires, which swept through the Pacific Palisades and Altadena regions earlier this year, killing at least 29 and burning over 37,000 acres, or 57.8 square miles. The fires were fully contained in early February. They have been ranked as the second and third most destructive wildfires in California history, according to Cal Fire. "There may be an expansion of the short-term drought conditions, including areas with extreme or exceptional drought levels," Zehr said. "There hasn't been widespread, meaningful rainfall in California since mid- to late March, so fuels have had a chance to dry considerably over the past two months." Additionally, Zehr said there will be "a very dry air mass," along with the low relative humidity this weekend. "The high heat will help to make it even drier," Zehr said. "Gusty winds, while not reaching alarming levels, will also contribute to the dryness. These conditions will make it easier for fires to start and spread." (This story has been updated to add more information.) This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: California's first 'widespread' heat wave is coming this weekend


CBS News
4 days ago
- Climate
- CBS News
Recent rain hasn't made a dent in Minnesota's drought, experts say
Minnesota saw some much-needed rain this week, but not over the ongoing fires in the Northland. Experts say the outlook for summer could spell even more trouble. "We've had some tornadoes, we have had wildfires, we've had some heat, but overall, you know, not super memorable," said Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld, looking back at meteorological spring. Compared to last year's major flooding, the last three months have been relatively tame, especially in terms of rainfall. All of the major climate sites have seen three to four inches of precipitation less this year. And though that's closer to average, Minnesota needs more rain given the ongoing drought. And according to the Climate Prediction Center, the outlook for summer isn't looking favorable. "A lot of people don't realize we're almost a monsoon climate with a pronounced wet season. In summertime in Minnesota, you get, depending on where you are, three to five times more precipitation than you get in the winter," Blumenfeld said. In the Twin Cities, we typically see nearly 13 inches of rain across June, July and August. However, this year's oulook says it's more likely we'll be drier than average. "If that happens, we would probably increase our precipitation deficits, making us drier and more prone to drought. So in light of that, we sure would like to see some precipitation in the weeks ahead here, just to kind of put some money in the bank," said Blumenfeld. He said not only does a dry summer favor drought, but it could mean more wildfires come fall. The outlook also says it's more likely we'll be warmer than average, something Blumenfeld agrees with since we've already seen some heat. "When you have hot days in May, 90 degrees or higher, there tends to be a higher-than-normal number of 90 degree days during the summer too. So that's one thing we'll be watching," Blumenfeld said.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Big Country Summer Outlook: It's going to be hot & that's not clickbait!
BIG COUNTRY, Texas () – Heading into summer, especially here in the Big Country, we all know what to expect: hot and dry conditions. However, each month, the Climate Prediction Center releases a seasonal outlook that helps explain why we can expect specific weather patterns and how intense they may become. Let's take a closer look. Abilene records hottest day ever with sweltering 113°F, more record breaking heat ahead First, the Farmers' Almanac, a well-known publication that has been around since the 1800s, uses a combination of tools, including climatological patterns, sunspot activity, lunar tides, and other atmospheric data, to make seasonal predictions. According to the Summer 2025 outlook, it's expected to be hot and dry. Sure, we already had a feeling, but according to them, this summer is shaping up to be a real scorcher. That being said, they aren't expecting things to get out of hand right away. June is forecast to be near normal, which still means it'll be plenty warm around here. But once we head into July and August, that's when they're predicting the heat could really ramp up, possibly even to record-breaking levels. Last summer, we recorded one of the hottest summers on record. Nationwide, temperatures were approximately 2.5 degrees above normal, marking the hottest summer on Earth since global records began in 1880. Unfortunately, this year could be just as intense, if not hotter. As for rainfall, the Farmers' Almanac says precipitation across the country will range from near to slightly below average. For Texas, that doesn't take much. We're typically already running a deficit by the time July rolls around. Beat the Big Country heat, signs and symptoms of dehydration Looking at the Climate Prediction Center's latest outlook, they're forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the Big Country from June through August. This forecast is based on several factors, one of which is the current El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. ENSO is a vital climate phenomenon that influences temperatures and precipitation globally. Right now, we're in what's called an ENSO-neutral phase, meaning there's no strong El Niño or La Niña influence. That leaves the door open for other drivers, such as local soil moisture and sea surface temperatures. One thing the CPC paid close attention to this time was soil moisture. Thanks to recent rains across the Big Country, we've seen some improvement. That added moisture can help limit just how fast temperatures climb early in the season. However, if the dry trend continues, and there's a decent chance it will, it won't take long for hot and dry conditions to return. That raises the risk of worsening drought and triple-digit temperatures, especially later in the summer. How Abilene firefighters battle both fire and 100°+ temperatures Looking even farther out, there's a possibility that La Niña could start to develop by fall. If that happens, we could see the dry pattern shift slightly to the southeast; however, for now, there is still a lot of uncertainty. So, all in all, we're expecting a classic Big Country summer: hot, dry, and potentially even more intense than what we saw last year, especially in July and August when we typically hit peak heat. Make sure to practice heat safety and always be aware of the signs of heat illness. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.