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Bloomberg
a day ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance: Tariffs and Debt
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney June 2nd, 2025 Featuring: 1) Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander, joins for an extended conversation on the outlook for the US economy, lower consumer spending, and potential for a shallow recession in the US. Global stocks started the new month under pressure due to a flare-up in global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold is heading for its biggest gain in almost four weeks as geopolitical and trade tensions revived demand for haven assets. 2) Kathy Jones, Chief Investment Strategist, Fixed Income at Charles Schwab, discusses bond market warnings and why the Fed won't be coming to the rescue any time soon. The dollar fell 0.5%, extending a streak of five monthly losses, while Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year rate up four basis points to 4.44% in the early part of the morning as risk appetite dissipates. 3) Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, talks about the House bill "debt fiasco" and why markets haven't fully awaken to the debt and deficit problem in the US. It comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the US "is never going to default" as the deadline for increasing the federal debt ceiling approaches. Bessent declines to specify an "X date" for when the Treasury will run out of cash, but says the goal is to bring the deficit down over the next four years. 4) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, talks about President Trump threatening an increase to steel and aluminum tariffs, how the tax bill could be transformed in the Senate, and other DC headlines. Uncertainty prompted by President Donald Trump's trade agenda picked up after China and the US accused each other of violating a trade deal concluded last month. Trump also said he would double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Meanwhile, Ukraine staged a dramatic series of strikes across Russia, deploying drones hidden in trucks deep inside the country to hit strategic airfields. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT story on Gen Z's interest in chain restaurants and a Business Insider story on AI already taking human jobs.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Charting the Global Economy: US GDP Falls on Larger Trade Hit
(Bloomberg) -- The US economy contracted slightly to start the year, largely reflecting a bigger tariff-related trade hit but also a larger downshift in household spending growth than first estimated. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Where the Wild Children's Museums Are In contrast, an export surge help drive the Canadian economy in the first quarter as businesses accelerated shipments ahead of higher US duties. Gross domestic product in India rose at a stronger-than-forecast 7.4% pace. Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics: US & Canada The US economy shrank at the start of the year, restrained by weaker consumer spending and an even bigger impact from trade than initially reported. The economy's primary growth engine — consumer spending — advanced 1.2%, down from an initial estimate of 1.8% and the weakest pace in almost two years. Meantime, net exports subtracted nearly 5 percentage points from the GDP calculation, slightly more than the first projection and the largest on record. A strong jump in tariff-driven exports fueled Canada's growth at the start of this year, offsetting domestic weakness in other parts of the economy. Preliminary data also suggests some continued momentum at the start of the second quarter, with output rising 0.1% in April, led by mining, oil and gas, and finance industries. Consumer sentiment rebounded in late May from one of the lowest readings on record earlier in the month and long-term inflation expectations retreated as concerns about the economy eased after the rollback of China tariffs. In the wake of Nvidia Corp.'s latest earnings report and upbeat sales forecast, the US government's GDP report also underscored the locomotive power of the artificial intelligence boom. Business investment in computers and other information processing equipment contributed a record 1.01 percentage points to first-quarter GDP. Europe European firms in China are the most pessimistic about growth prospects since 2011, underscoring the challenges of doing business in the world's second-largest economy despite recent government efforts to address some complaints. Some 29% of respondents were downbeat on the outlook for their sector over the next two years, according to an annual report by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.1% in May, slowing less than expected and highlighting lingering risks as the European Central Bank prepares to cut rates again. The data follow reports from Italy and Spain, where inflation eased to just below 2%, supporting the case for borrowing costs to be lowered further. Meanwhile, France said consumer price rose just 0.6% from the previous year. Europe is gradually adding gas to its depleted storage sites despite seasonal works at production facilities across the globe. In addition, overall demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia remains weak, which is a relief for European buyers that compete for the same fuel. Asia For decades, Asia's export powerhouses had a simple financial strategy: Sell goods to the US, then invest the proceeds in American assets. That model is now facing its biggest threat since the 2008 global financial crisis as Donald Trump tries to remake global trade and the US economy — upending the logic behind $7.5 trillion of investments from Asia. Some of the world's biggest money managers say an unwind is just getting started. India's economy grew at a faster pace than analysts expected, driven by some pick up agricultural activity and investments. While India retains its title as the world's fastest-growing major economy, the annual growth rate marks a notable slowdown from the 8% average seen in recent years — the pace needed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to achieve his ambitious goal of making the country a developed nation by 2047. Emerging Markets Brazil's consumer prices rose less than forecast in early May, fueling bets that the central bank will halt its cycle of interest rate hikes while keeping its monetary policy restrictive going forward to tame inflation. World Japan lost its position as the world's largest creditor nation for the first time in 34 years, giving up the title to Germany despite posting a record amount of overseas assets. Japan's status as the world's biggest net-creditor nation was a consequence of decades of current account surpluses that saw Japanese investors and companies load up on holdings abroad. New Zealand lowered rates for sixth straight meeting. South Africa, the Bank of Korea, Mozambique and Eswatini also cut. Hungary, Israel, Uruguay, Guatemala and Tunisia kept borrowing costs unchanged. --With assistance from Nazmul Ahasan, Ruth Carson, Rebecca Choong Wilkins, William Horobin, Masaki Kondo, Diana Li, Lucille Liu, Matthew Malinowski, Elena Mazneva, Prateek Mazumdar, Andrew Rosati, Anup Roy, Augusta Saraiva, Zoe Schneeweiss, Randy Thanthong-Knight, Erica Yokoyama and Jana Randow. YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? How Coach Handbags Became a Gen Z Status Symbol AI Is Helping Executives Tackle the Dreaded Post-Vacation Inbox ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Charting the Global Economy: US GDP Falls on Larger Trade Hit
(Bloomberg) -- The US economy contracted slightly to start the year, largely reflecting a bigger tariff-related trade hit but also a larger downshift in household spending growth than first estimated. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Where the Wild Children's Museums Are In contrast, an export surge help drive the Canadian economy in the first quarter as businesses accelerated shipments ahead of higher US duties. Gross domestic product in India rose at a stronger-than-forecast 7.4% pace. Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics: US & Canada The US economy shrank at the start of the year, restrained by weaker consumer spending and an even bigger impact from trade than initially reported. The economy's primary growth engine — consumer spending — advanced 1.2%, down from an initial estimate of 1.8% and the weakest pace in almost two years. Meantime, net exports subtracted nearly 5 percentage points from the GDP calculation, slightly more than the first projection and the largest on record. A strong jump in tariff-driven exports fueled Canada's growth at the start of this year, offsetting domestic weakness in other parts of the economy. Preliminary data also suggests some continued momentum at the start of the second quarter, with output rising 0.1% in April, led by mining, oil and gas, and finance industries. Consumer sentiment rebounded in late May from one of the lowest readings on record earlier in the month and long-term inflation expectations retreated as concerns about the economy eased after the rollback of China tariffs. In the wake of Nvidia Corp.'s latest earnings report and upbeat sales forecast, the US government's GDP report also underscored the locomotive power of the artificial intelligence boom. Business investment in computers and other information processing equipment contributed a record 1.01 percentage points to first-quarter GDP. Europe European firms in China are the most pessimistic about growth prospects since 2011, underscoring the challenges of doing business in the world's second-largest economy despite recent government efforts to address some complaints. Some 29% of respondents were downbeat on the outlook for their sector over the next two years, according to an annual report by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.1% in May, slowing less than expected and highlighting lingering risks as the European Central Bank prepares to cut rates again. The data follow reports from Italy and Spain, where inflation eased to just below 2%, supporting the case for borrowing costs to be lowered further. Meanwhile, France said consumer price rose just 0.6% from the previous year. Europe is gradually adding gas to its depleted storage sites despite seasonal works at production facilities across the globe. In addition, overall demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia remains weak, which is a relief for European buyers that compete for the same fuel. Asia For decades, Asia's export powerhouses had a simple financial strategy: Sell goods to the US, then invest the proceeds in American assets. That model is now facing its biggest threat since the 2008 global financial crisis as Donald Trump tries to remake global trade and the US economy — upending the logic behind $7.5 trillion of investments from Asia. Some of the world's biggest money managers say an unwind is just getting started. India's economy grew at a faster pace than analysts expected, driven by some pick up agricultural activity and investments. While India retains its title as the world's fastest-growing major economy, the annual growth rate marks a notable slowdown from the 8% average seen in recent years — the pace needed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to achieve his ambitious goal of making the country a developed nation by 2047. Emerging Markets Brazil's consumer prices rose less than forecast in early May, fueling bets that the central bank will halt its cycle of interest rate hikes while keeping its monetary policy restrictive going forward to tame inflation. World Japan lost its position as the world's largest creditor nation for the first time in 34 years, giving up the title to Germany despite posting a record amount of overseas assets. Japan's status as the world's biggest net-creditor nation was a consequence of decades of current account surpluses that saw Japanese investors and companies load up on holdings abroad. New Zealand lowered rates for sixth straight meeting. South Africa, the Bank of Korea, Mozambique and Eswatini also cut. Hungary, Israel, Uruguay, Guatemala and Tunisia kept borrowing costs unchanged. --With assistance from Nazmul Ahasan, Ruth Carson, Rebecca Choong Wilkins, William Horobin, Masaki Kondo, Diana Li, Lucille Liu, Matthew Malinowski, Elena Mazneva, Prateek Mazumdar, Andrew Rosati, Anup Roy, Augusta Saraiva, Zoe Schneeweiss, Randy Thanthong-Knight, Erica Yokoyama and Jana Randow. YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? How Coach Handbags Became a Gen Z Status Symbol AI Is Helping Executives Tackle the Dreaded Post-Vacation Inbox ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Globe and Mail
24-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Is Home Depot or Costco the Better Stock to Buy Right Now With $1,000?
It's likely that most consumers, at least in the U.S., have shopped at both a Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and a Costco (NASDAQ: COST) location at least once in their lives. The former is a leader in the home improvement space, while the latter excels at selling general merchandise. Combined, they generate hundreds of billions of dollars in annual revenue. Shares of both businesses trade below their all-time high prices. But which of these top retail stocks is the better buy right now with $1,000? Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More » Short-term struggles, long-term optimism Home Depot reported revenue of $39.9 billion in Q1 2025 (ended May 4), which exceeded Wall Street forecasts and represented a 9.4% year-over-year gain. However, investors shouldn't let the top-line figure take their attention away from the company's ongoing struggles. High mortgage rates, coupled with an uncertain macro backdrop, don't bode well for Home Depot. Same-store sales (SSS) declined 0.3% in the fiscal 2025 first quarter. This follows a 1.8% drop in fiscal 2024 and a 3.2% fall in fiscal 2023. It makes sense that when households are worried about the economy, they will hesitate to spend on expensive home improvements. There are reasons to be optimistic about the long term. The home improvement industry is massive, estimated to be worth $1 trillion. Home Depot commands just 16% market share. It should be able to win customers over from smaller stores that don't have the same inventory availability or omnichannel capabilities. The leadership team calls out the trillions of dollars of untapped home equity that has been built up since the start of the pandemic. This should create pent-up demand for Home Depot should macro conditions ease up. Homes in this country are also getting older. "The housing stock is aging, and 55% of homes are 40 years or older," CEO Ted Decker said on the Q1 2025 earnings call. "And we know that as homes get older, they require more maintenance and updates." This supports revenue growth for Home Depot in the future. As steady as they come Costco shines bright when viewed next to Home Depot. The company continues to report positive SSS growth, showcasing the durable demand it experiences. Even in difficult economic times, consumers should flock to Costco to buy whatever they need at low prices and in bulk quantities. The business has a tremendous scale advantage that gives it a leg up against rivals. The average Costco location carries just 4,000 different stock-keeping units, about 13% of what the average supermarket sells. Given that the company raked in $62.5 billion in net sales in Q2 2025 (ended Feb. 16), it has unmatched buying power over its suppliers. This allows Costco to obtain very favorable pricing on the merchandise it purchases from vendors, which leads to ongoing savings for shoppers who visit its warehouses. Low prices on high-quality goods should keep customers loyal. Costco drives even more loyalty by running a membership model. This brings in a high-margin, recurring revenue stream. In the U.S. and Canada, memberships typically carry a 92% or above renewal rate, demonstrating how popular they are among households. Producing a consistently rising earnings stream isn't an issue for the leadership team. This supports a quarterly dividend payout of $1.30. While that yields just 0.51% today, Costco boosts shareholder returns by shelling out one-time special dividends, the last one being a $15 dividend in January 2024. Investors can expect these to continue every few years. Better business or better stock In the past five years, Costco's stock price has climbed an impressive 236%, while Home Depot's is up just 56%. I believe this is a clear indication that the market appreciates the former's ongoing financial success, pointing to Costco as the higher-quality business of these two. But the valuation is far from cheap. As of this writing, Costco shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.9. This is 140% more expensive than Home Depot's 24.9 multiple. Investors who want to own the better company should go with Costco. However, those who prioritize valuation in their decision-making process will find that Home Depot is the better buy right now. Should you invest $1,000 in Costco Wholesale right now? Before you buy stock in Costco Wholesale, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Costco Wholesale wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $639,271!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $804,688!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is957% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to167%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
UK high street in the spotlight as key data and results cap off earnings season
The UK retail sector is in focus this week, with high street favourites due to report, while economic data should also shed some light on consumer activity. There have been some brighter spots in UK economic data over the past month, with Office for National Statistics (ONS) data released last week showing stronger-than-expected UK economic growth of 0.7% in the first quarter, versus estimates of 0.6%. This was also a marked improvement on the 0.1% growth recorded in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, separate data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC), also released last week, showed UK total retail sales rose by 7% year-on-year in April, well ahead of the 12-month average growth of 1.4%. The UK retail trade association said the sunniest April on record prompted strong consumer spending, while Easter falling in April this year also helped boost retail sales. "The sun has been shining on the high street in recent months, as the warmer weather has prompted shoppers to spend money entertaining and refresh summer wardrobes," said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. "The British Retail Consortium also noted a trend for DIY and garden focused sales, as people spruced up their outdoor spaces." Read more: Five 'buy' rated European travel stocks She said that the Bank of England's recent 0.25% interest rate cut – which lowered the base rate to 4.25% – was "also likely to have helped sentiment among consumers, and with borrowing costs on a downwards, if slow, trajectory, it could help push sales in the right direction in the months to come." "The trade deals signed with the US, India and the EU may also help restore some confidence about the direction of the UK economy, which could increase consumers' appetite to spend," Streeter added. At the same time, she said: "Higher revenues won't translate automatically into better profits for the retail sector. Rising employer taxes, due to increases in national insurance contributions, are likely to weigh on the bottom line." These are all important factors to consider as more high street names report this week, helping round off this latest earnings season, along with the latest UK inflation print due out on Wednesday and ONS retail sales data on Friday. With that in mind, here's more on what to expect. Before diving into this week's retail earnings, it's worth taking stock of performance from the sector so far this season, as a number of major UK retailers have already reported. This includes supermarkets Tesco (TSCO.L) and Sainsbury's (SBRY.L), which both reported in April. Hargreaves Lansdown's Streeter said that Tesco "issued some weak profit guidance for the current year that disappointed the market but given its huge scale and deep-rooted relationships with suppliers, [it is] still in a highly competitive position." Meanwhile, Sainsbury's has been "punching above its weight in the supermarket sector," she said, delivering a good set of full-year results, with revenues growing nearly 2% to £32.8bn and profit after tax up 76.6% to £242m. "Sainsbury continues to scoop up market share, in large part due to a herculean effort to improve products, value perception and innovation more generally," Streeter said. "This should stand it in good stead if price wars do break out, as has been expected, among grocers." Read more: Eurozone inflation to drop below 2% on US tariffs Elsewhere, Primark-owner Associated British Foods (ABF.L), reported half-year results at the end of April. Streeter said that 1% sales growth to £4.5bn "didn't impress investors ... with a weak performance on home soil only offset with expansion overseas." "But there are some sector wide signs that fortunes may have improved as the seasons evolved," she added. Next (NXT.L) posted a better-than-expected first quarter, in results published earlier in May, with full-prices sales up 11.4%, which was £55m ahead of its forecast for the period. "Warm, dry weather also gave clothing a lift, something noted by Next in its latest trading update, although its boss, Lord Simon Wolfson, suggested the sunshine may have pulled forward some demand from later in the year," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell (AJB.L). Even so, Next raised its guidance for profit before tax for the year by £14m to £1.08bn. Turning to this week's retail releases, Greggs (GRG.L) is due to report on Tuesday morning. While the bakery chain said sales had topped £2bn for the first time and posted record profits in its preliminary annual results in March, the company also reported a further slowdown in sales at the start of the year. "Chief executive Roisin Currie had cited rotten weather in January and February as part of the problem, but that will not stand up this time and Greggs' take on wider high street footfall should be informative," said Mould. "Take-up of the delivery proposition and volumes in the evening will be of particular interest, as will pricing strategies designed to cover wage and input cost inflation in what remains a highly competitive arena, and one where new initiatives such as chicken goujons bring Greggs into areas that are already well served." Much of the market focus this week will be on high street stalwart Marks & Spencer (MKS.L), as it reports in the wake of a cyber attack that left the retailer with some empty shelves in its stores and online orders suspended. Shares in M&S are down 12% over the past month and investors will be keeping a close eye out for any commentary from leadership on how the company is dealing with the fallout of the cyber attack. "M&S looked on track to maintain its hard-won momentum in both food and clothing until the cyber-attack struck," said Mould. "Insurance cover will lessen the immediate financial blow, and management's careful, considered handling of the situation means reputational damage is very limited at the stage. Whether boss Stuart Machin feels able to give much guidance is open to question." M&S is due to report on Wednesday, with analysts forecast a 5% increase in total group sales to £1.38bn, according to AJ Bell. Adjusted pre-tax income is expected to come in at £850m, versus £716m a year ago. Sports apparel retailer JD Sports (JD.L) is also due to report full-year results and offer an update on first quarter performance on Wednesday. The retailer, which sells brands such as Nike (NKE) and Adidas ( gave investors a glimpse into what to expect in a trading update in early April. The company said it had generated 5.8% organic revenue growth for the year, while profit before tax and adjusting items was expected to be in line with guidance of £915m to £935m. JD Sports also indicated that the 2026 fiscal year had gotten off to a solid start, as it said trading to the end of March had been in line with expectations. The company said it expected profit before tax and adjusting items to be in line with consensus estimates, but warned its guidance excluded the potential impact from changes to US president Donald Trump's tariffs. Mould said that JD Sports' share price "still feels linked, for better or worse, to that of Nike and the latest dud outlook statement there, plus one from athleisure provider Lululemon (LULU) leaves questions unanswered about the wider market here. "Consensus estimates have leaked lower, to below £900m on an adjusted pre-tax profit basis for the year to January 2026, even though JD Sports had declared itself happy with the prevailing analysts' view of something around £920m to £940m, or flattish against the fiscal 2025 outturn that will be revealed by these full-year results." On the economic data front, the ONS is slated to release the latest UK consumer price index (CPI) reading – a key measure of inflation – on Wednesday morning. CPI rose by 2.6% in the year to March, which was down from 2.8% in February. The gradual easing of inflation back towards central banks' 2% target has helped cement the Bank of England's (BoE) case for lowering interest rates. However, Deutsche Bank ( senior economist Sanjay Raja said in a note on Friday that despite an "encouraging March report, the April inflation will present the biggest test for the MPC [monetary policy committee] so far this year." He pointed to increases in energy and water bills, as well as to vehicle excise duty, social housing costs, council tax bills (for RPI), air passenger duty, communication bill resets and even a later than usual Easter weekend, as adding to price momentum. However, Raja said that "perhaps the biggest test for the MPC will be how the double whammy" of increases to the national living wage and employer national insurance contributions – announced in the government's autumn budget and took effect in early April – impact price momentum." Read more: Have you ever used financial advice for investing? Vote in our poll "We think food, core goods and some services (particularly, hospitality and leisure) prices will be most impacted," he said. As a result, Deutsche Bank expected a "big step up" in price momentum to start the second quarter, estimating that headline CPI would rise to 3.4% in April. Another key data release from the ONS this week is its April retail sales data, which is due out on Friday morning. March figures, published last month, showed retail sales were estimated to have risen by 0.4%, which was down slightly from 0.7% growth in February. The ONS said clothing and outdoor retailers reported that good weather boosted sales but that this was partly offset by falls in supermarket sales. In a note released on Thursday, Barclays' (BARC.L) investment sciences team said that their data indicated UK consumer spending was up 1.5% year-on-year over the four weeks to 2 May. Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio However, they said that the team's machine learning model forecast spending growth to rise by 3.9% year-on-year over the next four weeks. "Across sectors, we forecast digital content, other retail, travel, and leisure to stand out strongest, while motoring (excluding-fuel), hardware & DIY, and home & electronics are forecast to decrease," the Barclays team said. Turning back to the previous month, AJ Bell's Mould said that many consumers may have approached April with "some trepidation, given higher council tax bills, higher water bills and the increased energy price cap. That explains why the GfK consumer confidence reading has largely stalled of late." 'But there is still some good news out there," he added. "The price of oil is weak and that could filter through to the energy price gap come July, while interest rates are slowly coming down and the stronger pound will help put some form of lid on imported inflation. "Increased price competition between the leading supermarkets will be welcome too, while wage growth continues to outstrip inflation quite handily and unemployment remains relatively low." Read more: UK economy grows 0.7% in first quarter of the year Savers making costly 'bad decisions' around pensions as 15 million risk retirement poverty How to tell if you're richError while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
