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Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on June 3, 2025 and in the near-term?
Considering the ongoing US-China tension and weakness in the US Dollar Index, it is advisable to buy the dips with stoploss below $3,325/$3300. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold rates have shown considerable volatility recently, without establishing a definitive trend in either direction. International developments, particularly the trade tariff decisions by Donald Trump and ongoing geopolitical tensions, continue to influence daily gold prices. Given these unpredictable circumstances, investors face uncertainty about their investment strategies. What's the outlook on gold prices in the near term? Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views: Gold Performance: Following a weekly loss of 2.02% in the week ending May 30, spot gold prices are sharply higher this week due to renewed safe haven demand as US-China and other geopolitical concerns come to the fore. On Monday, China accused the US of violating the US-China trade truce as the US imposed further chip technology curbs. Last week, the US said that it will revoke visas for Chinese students who relate to the Chinese Communist Party or are studying in critical fields. The US Administration also barred the export of critical US jet engine parts and technology to China. It plans to broaden restrictions on China's tech sector with new regulations to capture subsidiaries of companies under US curbs as well. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like New Container Houses Morocco (Prices May Surprise You) Container House | Search Ads Search Now Undo China's slow approval for rare earth exports is being cited as the cause behind US's actions against China. Gold Data roundup: US data released Monday were slightly weaker than expected. ISM manufacturing came in at 48.50 Vs the forecast of 49.50 as the manufacturing sector contracted for the third straight month on tariff uncertainties. ISM's Import component slumped to a 16-year low, while the export gauge fell to the lowest level in five years. Contraction spending in April contracted by 0.4% as against the forecast of a 0.2% expansion. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI (May) at 49.40 matched the estimate in its final reading, while the UK's manufacturing PMI at 46.40 beat the estimate of 45.10. Gold ETF: Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 88.508Moz as of May 30. Holdings recorded first weekly inflow after five straight weeks of outflows as holdings are up 6.82% YTD. Upcoming data and events: The European Central Bank will deliver its monetary policy on June 5 wherein the Central Bank is expected to cut the key rates by 25 bps-- its eighth rate cut since the Bank embarked on its rate cutting spree in June 2024. Major US data to be released ahead in this week include JOLTs job openings (April), ADP employment change (May), ISM Services (May), trade balance (April) and nonfarm payroll (May). Investors will also monitor China's manufacturing and services PMIs (May) and Europe's services PMIs (May). Geopolitical watch: The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) carried out a massive drone attack deep inside Russia on June 1, which reportedly hit 41 Russian aircrafts. Both the countries concluded their latest peace talks in Istanbul on June 2; however, peace prospects remain dim. US Dollar Index and yields: At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index was at 98.71, down nearly 0.60% on the day, lowest since April 2022 barring April 2024 --reciprocal tariff sell-off period. Big investments cutting their Dollar Index forecasts is also weighing on the Greenback. Ten-year US yields and 30-year US yields respectively at 4.44% and 4.9781% were up by 0.90% on the day. Gold price Outlook: A close above $3,372 will be quite positive for the metal. Considering the ongoing US-China tension and weakness in the US Dollar Index, it is advisable to buy the dips with stop loss below $3,325/$3300. Worsening geopolitical situation and further weakness in the US Dollar Index may help the yellow metal test the psychological resistance at $3400, followed by possible tests of next resistance levels at $3414/$3435. Traders need to monitor the evolving China-US trade situation to minimize their risks. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on May 27, 2025 and in the near-term?
Gold may fall further on easing trade tensions following President Trump delaying the European tariff to July 9. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold rates have been fluctuating in the last few weeks and no clear upside or downside is obvious. Global events, such as Donald Trump's tariff moves and geopolitical conflicts are shaping the movement of gold prices on a daily basis. In such uncertain scenarios, what should investors do? What's the outlook on gold prices in the near term? Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views: Gold Performance: Spot gold rallied sharply in the week ending May 23 on soaring safe haven demand due to the rating agency Moody's downgrading the US credit rating on May 17 and heightened economic uncertainty due to the US President imposing a 50% tariff on European goods from June 1. The US President Trump has delayed the 50% EU tariffs to July 9. Last week, US treasuries cratered, and the US Dollar Index slumped on worries over the state of the US economy. Spot gold recorded a huge weekly gain of 4.84% as it closed at $3357; it was up by 1.89% on Friday. Yesterday, the US markets were closed to observe Memorial Day Holiday, while the London market is observing Spring Bank Holiday. Tariff developments: On May 23, President Trump said that he would be imposing a 50% tariff on European goods starting June 1 as he felt that US-Europe talks on trade deals were not going anywhere. Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like コンピュータでゲームをするのが好きなら、この新しいアドベンチャーゲームは必ずプレイすべきです。 アドベンチャーゲーム ゲームをプレイ Undo Trump's tariff threats were not limited to Europe only. In fact, he also threatened Samsung and Apple with a 25% tariff if their products are not made in the US. Later, on May 25, Trump walked back on tariff threats to Europe as he extended the deadline to July 9 citing positive talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen who said that Europe is ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively. US Dollar Index and yields: Deepening concerns over the US economic outlook amid tariff uncertainty have weighed heavily on the US bonds and the Dollar Index. Both ten-year and thirty-year US yields surged past the post-reciprocal tariff levels last week. On May 22, ten-year US yields soared to 4.62%, highest since February 2025 before backing off on Trump calling for a 50% tariff rate for Europe. Similarly, 30-year yields surged to 5.15%, highest since October 2023. Ten-year and thirty-year yields closed at the highest weekly levels since January 1 and October 27 respectively. The US Dollar Index fell nearly 2% last week to end at 99.11, the lowest daily close since April 28, and is currently at 99.03 is down by around 0.07%. The Index is threatening to breach the post reciprocal low of 97.92 reached on April 21. ETF holdings: Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 87.86 MOz as of May 23, down nearly 2% from the peak level of 89.77 MOz seen on April 21; holdings fell for the fifth straight week to the lowest level since April 8. Nonetheless, holdings are still up over 6% YTD. Weekly CFTC gold data: Hedge Fund managers have increased their bullish gold bets by 7,741 bet-long positions to 118,615, the most bullish position in four-weeks, as the short-only total fell to the lowest in eight weeks. Upcoming data and events: Major US data and reports to be released this week include Conference Board Consumer Confidence (May), FOMC minutes (May 7 meeting), GDP (1Q secondary estimate), real personal spending (April), PCE price Index (April) - the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation and University of Michigan Sentiment (May Final) and short-term and long-term inflation expectations. Gold Price Outlook: Gold may fall further on easing trade tensions following President Trump delaying the European tariff to July 9. On Monday, the metal had swung between $3324 and $3358, relatively a narrower range, as New York and London markets were on holiday. Near-term support is seen at $3311/$3292 followed by $3275 and $3250. This week, if no further developments on tariff fronts, is likely to be marked with data driven volatility, as the US economic calendar is quite busy. Easing trade tensions may push the prices further down. Traders may sell with stoploss above $3365-$3371 resistance zone. However, downside may be somewhat limited -- may be up to $3292/$3275 or so, on concerns due to erratic trade policies of the US. A correction in gold prices will then give an opportunity to go long on the yellow metal with stoploss below $3250. On the upside, a breach of $3365-$3371 resistance zone will open the way for $3435. Above $3435, the all-time high of $3500 will come into the focus. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
30-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold rate prediction on Akshaya Tritiya: Where are gold prices headed on April 30, 2025 and in the near-term?
Gold price outlook (AI image) Gold rate prediction : Buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya is considered auspicious according to Indian traditions. But what's the outlook for gold and what factors will drive gold prices in the coming days? Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views: Gold Performance: On April 29, spot gold swung between $3,299 and $3,349 and was changing hands at $3,322, down around 0.65% on the day, at the time of writing. MCX June contract at Rs 95,640 was down by nearly 0.40%. Notwithstanding disappointing data out of the US, spot gold was slightly lower as US President Trump signed orders to remove tariffs on some auto imports. In addition, investors are still hopeful that US-China trade tension may ease further. Data roundup: US data released Tuesday were disappointing as advance trade balance (March) came in at record -$162 billion Vs the estimate of -$145b as imports surged to beat tariff deadlines. Larger than expected US trade deficit would reduce Q1 GDP as imports would get subtracted from the GDP figure. As per a Bloomberg estimate, trade may reduce close to 3% points from top-line GDP growth on a surge in consumer goods imports, though gold imports need to be excluded from this calculation. JOLTs job openings (March) at 7192K were well short of 7500K estimate and prior data of 7568K was revised lower. JOLTs openings have fallen to the lowest since January 2021 barring September 2024 data. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Free P2,000 GCash eGift UnionBank Credit Card Apply Now Undo JOLTs job opening rate fell from 4.5% to 4.3% and trailed the forecast of 4.5%. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April) fell from 93.90 (revised higher from 92.90) to 86, lowest since May 2020, as expectations deteriorated the most since May 2011. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession as expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years. The details indicate that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. Elsewhere, European Central Bank's 1-year and 3-year expectations (March) at 2.9% and 3.3% were hotter than respective expected data of 2.5% and 2.3%. The ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said that the Central Bank should be cautious on further rate cuts due to uncertain global economic environment. It is possible that the ECB may halt its rate cuts temporarily after a 25-bps cut at the next meeting. US Dollar Index and yields: Ten-year US yields slid nearly 1% to 4.16%, lowest since April 7 as weak US economic indicators boosted rate cut bets. Similarly, two-year yields eased about 1% to 3.65%, lowest since April 9. Despite lower yields, the US Dollar Index at 99.03 was slightly higher as hopes concerning tariffs supported the greenback. Upcoming data: Major US data on tap on April 30 include ADP employment change (April), 1Q Advance GDP annualized, personal consumption (1Q Advance), Employment cost Index (1Q) and real personal spending (March). Investors will also monitor Germany's PPI and CPI (April prel.) along with China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMIs and Caixin China manufacturing (all April). ETF: Total known global gold ETF holdings as of April 28 stood at 89.072MOz, lowest since April 14, as holdings fell for the fifth straight day as investors booked profits. Nonetheless, ETF holdings are up nearly 7.5% YTD. COMEX gold inventory: COMEX gold inventory was noted to be 41.619MOz on April 28, down over 7% from the record high inventory of 45.072MOz recorded on April 4. COMEX gold inventory may be coming down on reversal of gold flow; thus, gold going back from New York to London. US-China trade standoff: On April 28, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that it is up to China to take the first step to de-escalate trade tensions. However, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a BRICs meeting on Monday urged countries to stand firm and resist 'bully' Trump. The Foreign Ministry has vowed that Beijing won't budge. However, investors remain hopeful that China will eventually de-escalate as Beijing suspended tariffs on some of US imports including medical equipment, plane leases and at least eight semiconductor-related products. US President Trump is expected to sign orders to exempt some auto foreign parts for cars and trucks made inside the US and give imported automobiles a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel. Gold Price Outlook: Major focus of investors is on US-China trade developments. Unless both the countries come together to sort out their differences, gold is likely to be well supported, though reversal of gold flow from New York to London is somewhat negative for the metal. US data continues to disappoint. Weaker than expected JOLTs opening and a multi-year low Conference Board consumer confidence data reflect a weakening economy, which would weaken further as trade war continues. Conference Board consumer confidence data fell for the fifth straight month. China choosing not to respond to US to initiate trade talks means trade friction between world's two largest economies is likely to continue in at least near-term, which will keep the yellow metal supported. If there is no major positive development on trade issues, dip buying is the preferred strategy. The metal may test $3372-$3400 resistance zone. Upside is likely to be capped at $3400 in the short-term. Support is at $3260 (MCX Gold June contract Rs 93,800). Resistance is at $3350 (Rs 96,500)/$3372 (Rs 97,000). Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . Master Value & Valuation with ET! Learn to invest smartly & decode financials. Limited seats at 33% off – Enroll now!
