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Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on August 12, 2025? Here's the outlook
Gold price prediction: Gold is still caught in its nearly 12-week-old range of $3,250-$3,450. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold rates are stuck in a range despite spurts of positive upside. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for: Gold Performance: Spot gold, in the week ending August 8, closed with a gain of around 1.1% at $3397. On August 11, spot gold prices moved between $3,341 and $3,402 as the metal as gold slipped on a stronger US Dollar amid hopes of US-China truce extension and a breakthrough in the US-Russia talks over Ukraine, which are scheduled to take place in Alaska on August 15. Lack of clarity on import duty on gold exports to the US also contributed to weakness in gold to some extent. At the time of writing this article, the shiny metal was changing hands at $3,345, down 1.53% for the day. The MCX October gold contract was noted at Rs 100,318, down nearly 1.50%. Trades and tariffs: US President Trump said that trade deal talks with China are progressing nicely. He urged China to quadruple its soybean orders, saying that it will substantially reduce China's Trade Deficit with the USA. US Treasury Secretary Bessent expects trade issues to be finished by October. Trump confirmed that Nvidia will pay 15% of China chip revenues to the US government. Data roundup: China's inflation numbers (July) were out on August 9. CPI y-o-y was steady as against the expectation of a decline of 0.1%, while PPI y-o-y at -3.6% (forecast -3.3%) showed that factory gate deflation extended to the 34th consecutive month. US Dollar Index and yields: The US Dollar Index gains could be attributed to the upcoming US CPI (July) to be released today, which is likely to show a pickup in inflation pace. The Dollar Index was noted at 98.58, up 0.42% for the day. Two-year and Ten-year US yields at 3.74% and 4.26% were down by almost 2 bps each. CPI data would be followed by PPI (July) and retail sales advanced (July) scheduled to be released on August 13 and August 15 respectively. Gold ETF: As of August 8, total known global gold ETF holdings surged to a new-cycle high of 92.14MOz -- highest since July 2023. New exploration remains muted despite high gold prices: As per a report from S&P Global Commodity Insights, despite gold prices surging to new record highs, exploration activity has remained subdued. In 2024, the gold industry added just 3 deposits to its global database, which raised the reserves from 2.9 billion Ounces to 3 billion Ounces. The industry players are preferring to expand known deposits rather than to bet on new projects. That average size of new deposits has come down from 7.7 million ounces in the previous decades to just 4.4 million ounces since 2020 is also limiting the expansion activities. Fed watch: Fed's Bowman (voter) said that the latest job market data underscores her forecast for three rate cuts this year. Fed Chair list now also includes former St. Louis Fed President Bullard and former George W. Bush adviser Sumerlin. Upcoming data: This week is a data-packed week. Additional major US data on the card this week include industrial production (July), import and export price Indices (July) along with University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (August prel.). Investors will monitor the Eurozone's 2Q (prel.) employment and the secondary reading of 2Q GDP, too. Gold Price Outlook: Gold is still caught in its nearly 12-week-old range of $3,250-$3,450. In the very near term, US CPI and other inflation data, US-China trade truce extension and US-Russia talks over Ukraine will dictate gold prices. Chances of a positive outcome out of the US-Russia meeting in Alaska on Friday are slim. US-China trade truce extension and hot CPI data may pressurize the metal further. In that case, gold may slip further to test support at $3,310 (Rs 99,200). Next major support is at $3,292 (Rs 98,700). Resistance is at $3,375 (Rs 101,200) /$3,410 (Rs 102,300). Gold may stabilize after US-China truce extension and US CPI data as retail sales and the US-Russia talks may not be that positive for risk assets. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays , public holidays , current gold rate and silver price .
Time of India
05-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on August 5, 2025? Here's the outlook
Gold price prediction: Gold is still stuck in its nearly 11-week-old range of $3250-$3450. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold rates are likely to trade with a positive bias though they have been stuck in a range for some time Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for: Gold Performance: On August 1, a weak-looking gold staged a sharp U-turn reversal on an extremely weak US nonfarm payroll report. Gold rally gathered further pace on the US President Trump firing BLS Chief Erika McEntarfer in the wake of the US NFP report as he accused her of political bias. This unfortunate event is giving rise to concerns among investors over the Fed's independence and data quality. As a result of a huge surge of 2.2% on Friday, the shiny metal ended the week ending August 0.7% higher. Gold extended its rally on Monday and rose to $3,385, tough healthy risk appetite in risk assets on the Fed rate cut expectations tempered the gains of the metal. At the time of writing this article, spot gold was changing hands at $3,372, up around 0.30% for the day, while the MCX October gold contract at Rs 101,161 was up by Rs 1.41% as extremely weak Indian Rupee further boosted MCX gold prices. Data roundup: US data released on August 4 were mostly in line with the forecast as factory orders (June) contracted by 4.8% (forecast -4.8%) while durable goods orders (June final) fell 9.4% (forecast -9.3%). The US nonfarm payroll released on August 1 showed that US employers added 73K jobs Vs the forecast of 104K as unemployment rate edged higher from 4.12% to 4.25% despite decline in labour force participation rate. The worst part of the report was a huge downward revision of 258K jobs in the two-month payroll because of which 3-month average nonfarm payrolls change fell from 150K jobs to 35K jobs -- far below 100K jobs required to maintain the unemployment rate stable. Tariff developments: On Monday, the President Trump said that he will substantially hike India's tariffs over Russian oil purchases. The announcement weighed heavily on the domestic currency, and it tumbled nearly 1% from its day's high to fall to a fresh record high of Rs 88/USD in the NDF market. The Swiss government, in response to a steep tariff rate of 39% imposed by the US Administration, as Switzerland has a trade surplus of $50 billion, has come out with a proposal to dissuade the US Administration as Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs also tries to find a way out with its US counterpart. The EU will delay planned US tariffs for six months to engage in trade talks. US Dollar Index and yields: The US Dollar Index, at the time of writing the article, was hovering around 98.75, down 0.40% for the day. Ten-year US yields were steady at 4.22%, while 30-year yields eased by around 2 bps to 4.80%. Two-year US yields, that slumped 27 bps to 3.68% on Friday due to extremely weak non-farm payroll increasing the September rate cut odds to almost certainty, were up by 3 bps. Upcoming data: Today's US data include trade balance (June), S&P global US services and composite PMIs and the crucial ISM services Index (July). Investors will also monitor PMI services and composite data out of China, Japan, the UK and the European Union, too. ETF holdings and COMEX Inventory: As of August 1, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 91.686MOz -- at two-year high. Holdings are up 10.64% YTD. COMEX gold inventory currently at 38.71 MOz are down nearly 14% from the record peak level of 45.07 Moz seen on April 4. Gold Price Outlook: Nonfarm payroll disaster and the President Trump shooting the messenger as he fired the BLS chief on Friday have diminished the bearish pressure on the metal to a great extent. That the US President Donald Trump will have a chance to choose a replacement for Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler following her resignation Friday may intensify the downside pressure on the US Dollar. Today's US ISM services Index data will be crucial. A weak data will add to the upside momentum in the yellow metal. Correction in gold prices on healthy risk appetite and strong US ISM services could be used for buying the dips. Volatility in the Indian Rupee due to tariff news flow carries a huge exchange rate risk for the domestic gold prices. Overall, gold is still stuck in its nearly 11-week-old range of $3250-$3450. In ultra short-term, gold is expected to trade with a positive bias. Nonetheless, tariff news flow should be closely monitored. Support is at $3350 (Rs 100,500)/$3320 (Rs 99,500)/$3292 (Rs 98,700). Resistance is at $3400 (Rs 102,000) /$3450 (Rs 103,500). MCX levels are the INR/USD rate of Rs 87.90. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . Discover stories of India's leading eco-innovators at Ecopreneur Honours 2025
Time of India
29-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on July 29, 2025 & ahead of Donald Trump's tariff deadline?
Gold price prediction: Spot gold is expected to trade with a slight bearish tilt unless US-China trade tensions surface up once again. (AI image) Gold price prediction: Gold prices are trading within a range due to fall in demand for safe haven assets. As the Donald Trump administration finalises trade deals, global economic uncertainties are somewhat ebbing, leading to gold prices declining. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for: Gold Price Performance: On July 28, spot gold extended its decline to the fourth straight day as the European Union (EU) and the US announced that a trade deal framework has been reached under which 70% of the EU exports to the US will be subjected to 15% tariffs while reducing tariffs on some American goods to zero. In addition, the EU will buy huge amounts of US military equipment, invest fresh $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion of American energy products. Although the US-EU trade deal has removed some uncertainty in the markets and mitigated risks to the global economy to an extent, some of the EU officials have criticized the deal as a compromise as even a 15% tariff rate will have significant negative consequences for the European economy. Spot gold fell on reduced safe haven demand and a stronger US Dollar as the Euro tumbled on possible negative impacts of the deal on the Bloc's economy. The yellow metal fell nearly 0.35% in the week ending July 25; thus, posting its second straight weekly decline. The shiny metal at the time of writing was changing hands at $3314, down 0.68% for the day. The MCX October gold contract at Rs 98,400 was down around 0.35%. Trade developments: Following the deal with the EU, the effective US tariff rate stands at 16% currently, highest since the 1930s and six times the rate when Trump took office at the start of the year. The US and China began two-day trade negotiation talks in Stockholm Monday. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Bessent will lead their delegations as the agenda is expected to include extension of current tariff truce, fentanyl trafficking and China buying sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. India-US trade deal agreement is yet to be reached. President Trump said that he may impose 15-20% tariffs on the nations which have yet to reach trade agreements. US Dollar and yields: The US Dollar Index extended its rebound for the third consecutive day on Monday as the Euro slumped nearly 1%. At the time of writing this article, the Index was noted at 98.41, up around 0.80% on the day. It is up nearly 1.60% in July, which is turning out to be its best month this year so far. Ten-year US yields that fell around 3 bps last week, were up by 2 bps on Monday as the yields hovered around 4.41%. Thirty-year yields at 4.95% were up 2 bps, too, though 2-year yields were steady at 3.93%. Geopolitics: US President Trump said that shortening his timeline for Russia to reach a truce to reach an agreement with Ukraine, he would make a new deadline of about 10 or 12 days and would announce it by Tuesday. According to defense analysts, the US, to signal Russia its commitment to the Europe' security, has likely moved nuclear weapons to the UK for the first time since 2008. ETF and COMEX gold stocks: As of July 25, total known global gold ETF holdings reached a fresh cycle-high 91.83 MOz -- highest since July 31, 2023-- as ETFs recorded net inflows for the fifth straight day. ETF holdings are up 10.77% YTD. COMEX gold stocks at 37.76 MOz are down over 16% from the record-high level of 45.072 MOz reached on April 4. Upcoming data and events: This week is going to be quite a busy week as a raft of crucial macroeconomic data will be released amid key events like the FOMC monetary policy decision and trade news flow as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches. Major US data on card include JOLTs job openings (June), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (July), ADP employment change (July), Q2 GDP, nonfarm payroll report (July), University of Michigan Sentiment (July final), ISM manufacturing (July) and June's core PCE price Index -- Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. Gold Price Outlook: As per Bloomberg, despite tariff concerns, nearly 82% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported their Q2 earnings so far have beaten profit forecasts, which makes Q2 to be on track for the best quarter in four years. A weaker Indian Rupee offers some support to the domestic gold prices. Downside may be limited ahead of the FOMC's monetary policy decision due on July 30. Concerns over US-Russia relations may lend some support to the metal. The Fed is expected to hold the overnight Fed Fund rate steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%; however, investors look forward to clues on the future path of the policy, more so as the Fed Governor Waller has only recently supported the idea of beginning the rate cuts from July meeting itself. The US Dollar is likely to trade with a slight positive bias in the runup to the FOMC decision as markets digest the near-term implications of the EU-US trade deal . Investors monitor US-China trade talks as well. Spot gold is expected to trade with a slight bearish tilt unless US-China trade tensions surface up once again. Support is noted at $3292 Rs 97,700)/$3282 (Rs 97,400)/$3255 (Rs 96,600)/$3228 (Rs 95,800), while resistance comes in at $3343 (Rs 99,200)/$3375 (Rs 102,000). Selling into rallies with a tight stop-loss is the preferred strategy for very short-term trading. The US and China agreeing to extend their trade deal deadline may push the metal to $3255 in the short-term. Extension of the August 12 deadline is likely in the wake of the trade deals with Japan and the EU, though details of these deals are still awaited. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
08-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on July 8, 2025 and in the near-term amidst Donald Trump's tariff moves?
Gold price prediction: Upside in gold may be capped due to extension of tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are likely to continue trading within a broad range as clarity emerges on trade deal related developments. With Donald Trump extending the tariff deadline to August 1, yet announcing reciprocal tariffs on 14 countries, gold as a safe haven is not completely out of favour. Experts believe that it is important to track trade deal related movements to have better clarity on gold rate outlook. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for: Gold Performance: Spot gold traded between $3,296 and $3,343 on July 7. The yellow metal at the time of writing this article was changing hands at $3,330, down around 0.20% on the day. The metal initially fell as the US President extended the reciprocal tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1 and the US Dollar Index firmed up; however, it recouped most of its losses on risk aversion as President Trump planned to announce tariff rates for some of the countries on Monday. The MCX August gold contract was up by 0.21% at Rs 97,198 as the Indian Rupee weakened amid tariff concerns. Spot gold closed at $3,346 with a weekly gain of nearly 2% for the week ending July 4. Despite positive US nonfarm payroll and ISM services data, gold gained due to tariff uncertainty and a weaker US Dollar. Tariff developments: The Trump Administration extended July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline to August 1. However, final and non-negotiable tariff letters are to be sent to 10 or 12 countries on Monday with more to follow. As announced on July 7, 2025, Japan and South Korea will be subjected to a 25% tariff rate (same rate as announced in April) from August 1. This rate is in addition to sectoral tariffs. Trump threatened additional 10% tariff on any countries aligning themselves with the "Anti-American policies" of the BRICS, which held its 17th BRICS summit in Rio De Janeiro on July 6-7 with focus on issues like AI, climate action, global peace and security. Treasury Secretary Bessent expects several trade deals to be announced over the next 48 hours. Data roundup: US nonfarm payroll (June) report, released on July 3, was largely positive as US employers added 147K jobs Vs the expectation of 106K jobs, and the unemployment rate slid from 4.2% to 4.1% Vs the estimate of 4.3%, though decline in the unemployment rate was mainly due to jobseekers leaving the job pool. Average hourly earnings trailed the estimates. ISM services Index was back in expansion zone in June after a month as the Index at 50.80 surpassed the estimate of 50.60. Upcoming data: The current week is light on data. FOMC minutes of June 18 FOMC meeting will be released on July 9. China's PPI and CPI data (June) will be released on July 9. US Dollar Index and yields: The US Dollar Index at 97.58 was up roughly 0.50% on the day. Ten-year US yields rose 3 bps to 4.38%. Gold ETF and COMEX gold inventory: Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 90.52 MOz as of July 4. Although gold ETF holdings fell by 0.11 Moz for the week, holdings are still hovering around nearly 2-year high and are up 9.25% YTD. As of July 4, COMEX gold inventory stood at 36.78 Moz, down over 18% from the record peak of 45.07Moz noted on April 4. Inventories continue to fall on demand for physical delivery. China buys gold for the eighth straight month: China's Central Bank's gold reserves holding increased by 70,000 Ounces in June as the Bank extended its buying streak to the eighth consecutive month. Its gold reserves have increased by around 34.20 tons since the streak began in November. Gold Price Outlook: China extending its gold buying spree and elevated ETF inflows are positive factors for the metal. Trump's tariff announcements for targeted nations may lead gold to trade with a slight positive bias. Domestic prices are likely to be influenced more due to fluctuations in Rupee as emerging market currencies come under pressure. However, upside in gold may be capped due to extension of tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1. In the very short-term, the shiny metal is expected to trade between $3,292 (Rs 96,200) and $3,370 (Rs 98,500). Possibilities of breakthrough in trade deals will weigh on the metal, so traders need to monitor trade deal developments. Selling with tight stop-loss rallies is the preferred strategy in ultra-short term. Next major support and resistance levels are $3,247(Rs 94,800) and $3,400 (Rs 99,400) respectively. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
01-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on July 1, 2025 and in the near-term?
Gold price prediction: Barring re-eruption of geopolitical jitters and trade frictions, gold is expected to trade with a slight bearish bias. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias, analysts feel, considering the diminishing geopolitical tensions and positive talks of trade deals ahead of US President Donald Trump's tariff deadline. What is the gold price outlook for the coming days? Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for: Gold Performance: On June 30, spot gold traded between $3,248 and $3,300 as the metal took support around $3250 for the second day in a row. The metal fell overnight on reduced safe demand due to the Iran-Israel ceasefire and trade deal optimism. However, the metal recovered in the European session and was stable in the US session on the Fed rate cut notions as US yields eased further. Markets look for more than 50 bps cuts ahead this year as US data, especially job data, are turning out to be disappointing amid somewhat contained inflationary pressure. Earlier, spot gold slumped 2.79% in the week ending June 27 on reduced safe haven demand and healthy risk appetite. Tariff developments: Markets are hopeful that the US will be able to finalize trade deals with several nations ahead of the July 9 deadline as talks with India, Japan and many other nations continue, while reportedly, the US is close to clinching deals with Mexico and Vietnam. In addition, the EU is hopeful of reaching some sort of trade agreement with the US before the deadline. President Trump said that he will not need to extend the pause on tariffs which are to take effect from July 9 as he intends to send a very fair letter to each country regarding their tariff rates. Data roundup: US data released Monday were weaker than expected as MNI Chicago and Dallas Fed manufacturing Activity both trailed the forecast. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 점점 커지는 모공들, 큰돈 쓰지말고 집에서 이렇게 해보세요 미그닥 Undo China's home sales slump continued in June as the value of new-home sales from the 100 largest property companies stood at 339 billion Yuan, a 23% decline from a year ago. China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs (June) came in at 49.70 (forecast 49.60) and 50.50 (forecast 50.30) respectively as composite PMI improved from 50.40 to 50.70. Upcoming data and events: US Senate Republicans are committed to meet the July 4 deadline to pass legislation that contains $3.80 billion tax breaks and spending cuts. The Senate is beginning an all-day session of amendment votes on Monday in which democrats may block any provisions that may increase costs for working families or small businesses as they remain concerned about the possibility of the bill increasing the deficit. The House may vote as soon as Wednesday provided the Senate can pass the bill. Democrats maintain that Trump's tax breaks are adding to the national debt. US data on cards today include ISM manufacturing (June), S&P global US manufacturing PMI, construction spending (May), and JOLTs job openings (May). China's Caixin PMIs (June) will also be in focus. The week is data-packed with crucial US data like ISM manufacturing (June), ADP employment change (June), nonfarm payrolls (June) and ISM Services Index (June). US Treasury Secretary sees rates falling: Treasury Secretary Bessent said it would not make sense to increase sales of longer-term securities at current yields as expects the whole yield curve to shift down as inflation falls. He said that some of the Fed officials already serving at the Federal Reserve are under consideration to head the central bank. US Dollar Index and yields: On June 30, the US Dollar Index fell to 96.85, a fresh cycle low marking the lowest level since February 2022. At the time of writing, the Index was hovering around 96.87, down nearly 0.50% on the day. The ten-year yields at 4.23% were down around 1% as the yields hover around 2-month low. 2-Year yields at 3.72% were down around 3 bps. Gold ETFs: As of June 27, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 90.61MOz, highest since August 2023. ETF holdings are up 9.36% YTD as the ETFs recorded net inflows for the second straight month. ETFs were on track of recording a monthly inflow of more than 2 MOz after a decline of 0.68 MOz in May -- the first monthly decline this year. COMEX gold inventory: COMEX gold inventory stood at 37.048 MOz, which is down around 25% from the record high level of 45.072MOz seen on April 4, as buyers opt for physical delivery. Central Banks' gold reserves approach historic high: In the post-war Bretton Woods era, the stock of gold held by central banks peaked at 38,000 tons in the mid-1960s. Their reserves are approaching the historic high as the reserves reached 36,000 tons in 2024. Gold Price Outlook: In the very short-term, tariff news flows and risk appetite will be the most important factors governing gold prices . As such the yellow metal is well supported on huge ETF inflows, a weakening US Dollar, investors opting for physical delivery, rate cut expectations and a shaky Iran-Israel ceasefire deal. However, presently, investors are focused more on trade deals and expectations of a pickup in corporate earnings as Q2 results will start pouring in soon. In all possibility, the July 9 trade deal deadline will get extended as trade negotiations are likely to extend further. Deadline extension would be a bearish development for the yellow metal. In such a scenario, barring re-eruption of geopolitical jitters and trade frictions, gold is expected to trade with a slight bearish bias. It may decline to $3228 (MCX August gold contract Rs 94,100)/$3200 (Rs 93,300) in the very short-term; however, medium to long term prospects remain quite bright. Interim support is at $3247 (Rs 94,700). Resistance is at $3310 (Rs 96,600)/$3322(Rs 96,900)/$3350 (Rs 97,700).
