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The National
2 days ago
- Politics
- The National
This result shows the time has arrived for make-or-break move for SNP
We didn't need Professor Curtice to highlight that SNP fortunes haven't improved since the General Election. It was readily apparent to anyone who followed this SNP leadership contesting Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse as a supposed party of 'independence' and yet not relying on it to garner support. At a time when national polling for independence is reckoned to hover around 54%, Swinney's SNP managed to garner just 12% support from Hamilton's electorate (only 29% of those who actually voted). Doesn't this prove beyond any doubt he and his party are getting it woefully wrong? At a time when the independence movement is straining at the leash for real campaigning political leadership, itching to get the campaign into full swing, hasn't the SNP's campaign chief, Jamie Hepburn, signalled indy being kicked down the road once again when in Laura Pollock's report (June 6) he states: 'Next year, we're going into a General Election for the Scottish Parliament ... the fundamental question will be who's forming the next government ... who's going to be the next first minister ... either John Swinney or Anas Sarwar.' READ MORE: Patrick Harvie: Increased UK defence spending only makes war more likely There we have it. This SNP's clear intention is to just play regional politics, presumably to secure their own positions, rather than fight the 2026 election as the de facto referendum the movement demands and the polls suggest the public desires. I suspect the new strategy SNP may be heading towards claiming that the de facto referendum should be at the next General Election and promising to make it so ... just as long as we elect them to Holyrood next year so they can 'deliver' it. Well, let's head that one off at the pass. If 2026 is ignored as the legitimate platform for Scots to determine their national status, or fail to force the referendum our democratic rights deserve, then who doubts the SNP will be soundly defeated and the independence movement will need to start from scratch to fight for independence without them; trust in the SNP decimated and Scotland's independence prospects truly parked for another generation – victory for the Unionists? If Keir Starmer, as seems likely, is about to scapegoat Rachel Reeves to secure his position, isn't it time for the SNP to scapegoat their current leader and his influencers in order to elect a leader in time for 2026 who has independence at heart, has the drive to deliver it and can persuade 54% and rising of Scots that they can do so? Hasn't the Hamilton election result shown the time has arrived for, if no serious independence leadership and drive for it, then no SNP? Jim Taylor Scotland THE loss of the Hamilton by-election to the risibly inept 'Scottish' Labour – a party so devoid of ideas it could barely muster a coherent manifesto – is not merely a setback. It is a catastrophe of the SNP's own making, a fiasco that reeks of complacency, strategic idiocy and the kind of centrist dithering that has come to define John Swinney's leadership. This was an entirely avoidable humiliation. Instead of seizing the moment – with independence support now at a formidable sum – Swinney, that master of inertia, chose to dither. His response? A pledge to wait until 75% of Scots beg for freedom before lifting a finger. One wonders if he imagines history's great emancipators –Washington, Bolívar, even the wretched Garibaldi – paused to consult focus groups before acting. When Starmer, that most unctuous of Westminster careerists, declared he would block any independence referendum, Swinney's silence was deafening. Not a word of defiance, not a hint of resistance to the colonial farce of Section 30. Instead, he opted to align with Labour – a party whose sole distinction from Reform is a marginally more polished veneer of hypocrisy. Both are Unionist to the core, united in their mission to siphon Scotland's wealth southward while offering nothing but condescension in return. The campaign itself was a masterclass in misdirection. Rather than rallying the independence movement with a bold vision, Swinney fixated on Reform – as if thwarting Nigel Farage's band of reactionary clowns was the defining struggle of Scottish nationalism. The result? A muddled, defensive mess that left voters uninspired and Labour undeservedly triumphant. Worse still, Swinney has perpetuated the worst excesses of the Sturgeon era: the cult of secrecy, the slavish deference to corporate interests (see: Flamingo Land's desecration of Loch Lomond) and the systematic sidelining of anyone with a spine. Sturgeon's legacy was to ensure that no competent successor could emerge – only loyalists and mediocrities, of which Swinney is the apotheosis. The truth is stark: the SNP have no plan for independence. No strategy beyond grovelling to Westminster for permission to hold a vote – a humiliation masquerading as diplomacy. It is a spectacle so pitiful it verges on self-parody. Swinney must go. Not with a whimper, but with the swift, decisive exit his failures demand. The independence movement deserves leaders who grasp that freedom is seized, not negotiated – and who possess the courage to act accordingly. Until then, the SNP's decline will continue, and Scotland's potential will remain shackled by the timid and the unimaginative. Alan Hinnrichs Dundee
Scotsman
2 days ago
- Politics
- Scotsman
Hamilton by-election result: Sir John Curtice's warning for Anas Sarwar and how he rates Reform vote surge
Labour has won the Hamilton by-election - but Professor Sir John Curtice is far from convinced it means Anas Sarwar will become the next first minister. Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... Labour's Davy Russell was victorious in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, coming away with 31.5 per cent of the vote. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad However, this is down from the 33.6 per cent share of the vote the party gained in this constituency back in 2021. In that election, Labour came second. Political scientist Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University. Picture:|Mr Sarwar has already lauded the victory as the first step on the road to electing a Labour government at next year's Scottish Parliament election - a move that would see him becoming first minister. But Prof Curtice has warned of caution in this aspiration, saying the SNP was still likely to be the largest party in Scotland after the 2026 election. Curtice on Labour's fortunes Speaking to the BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Prof Curtice said: 'This was an election for a seat last contested in 2021 and that is frankly now a long time ago. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'The SNP then got nearly half the vote and Labour got little more than a fifth. Last year the Labour Party came first in Scotland, five points ahead of the SNP and the SNP was in trouble. 'If you take in the opinion polls, what's happened in Hamilton, and the ups and downs in Labour and SNP support since 2021, we see Labour at 31 per cent and the SNP at 31 per cent. 'So the contest always looked to be close and that's what's been proven in the end. Labour has done slightly better and the SNP slightly worse, but there is nothing in the result to suggest Labour has turned around the polls. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'But equally what's true is there are no signs in this result that the SNP are making much progress in reversing the losses from last year. 'The recent message from opinion polls are the SNP is running at just over 30 per cent, Labour is around 20 per cent, so it seems a reasonable expectation that such a result would not mean Anas Sarwar is Scotland's next first minister.' Labour candidate Davy Russell wins the by-election and celebrates alongside party leader Anas Sarwar and his deputy Jackie Baillie. | Lisa Ferguson What Curtice says about the result for Reform Prof Curtice said the results also showed Reform UK is 'making political weather north of the Border'. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad The polling expert said the by-election result could not be seen as a victory for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, mainly because of how well Reform UK fared. Writing in The Times, Prof Curtice said: 'Once again it is Reform's political prospects that now look brighter. 'As in the English local elections, so in Hamilton the party outperformed its current standing in the polls, winning as much as 26 per cent of the vote. 'Hitherto politicians in Scotland have comforted themselves with the thought that Nigel Farage could never make the political weather in a country that voted against Brexit and which seems less concerned about immigration. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'However, as in the rest of the UK, that is not a thought that is credible any more.' Mr Farage's party came third in the Hamilton by-election with 26.2 per cent of the vote - well above the 19 per cent they are sitting at in the national polls for Scotland. It is estimated around one in four Conservative voters in Scotland from last year's general election have switched to Reform, along with one in six Labour voters. Prof Curtice said: 'Reform UK is damaging both of the principal unionist parties in Scotland. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad
The National
3 days ago
- Politics
- The National
John Curtice in warning to SNP and Labour after Hamilton by-election
The polling expert was appearing on the BBC after it was announced that Davy Russell had won the by-election for Scottish Labour, becoming the party's 23 MSP with 31.5% of the total vote. The SNP were second, with their candidate Katy Loudon picking up 29.4% of the vote, while Reform UK's Ross Lambie was a close third with 26.2%. Speaking to the BBC, Professor Curtice said that the result had confirmed the 'evidence of the opinion polls', but that Reform's level of support was "a bit of a surprise". READ MORE: Hamilton by-election results – see the full breakdown in charts and graphs He explained: 'The revival of the Labour Party that took place in the two years running up to the General Election has indeed disappeared, the party is indeed more or less back to where it was in 2021. 'But at the same time, with the SNP vote down by 17 points, here is more than ample evidence that indeed the SNP, while it might have steadied the ship psychologically, has still made very little progress in advancing on where it was at last summer.' Curtice said that the vote result showed that there was a 'chunk' of pro-Yes voters who had backed Labour in the 2024 General Election and 'have not returned to the SNP fold'. He added: 'This election confirms very, very clearly that the SNP still have an awful lot of work to do to get those voters back on side, and it does illustrate that indeed, although, given, if this kind of result were to be reflected across the whole of Scotland, we'd still bet about the SNP being the largest party, they are still on relatively fragile ground.' The University of Strathclyde expert further said that Reform UK's vote share had been a 'bit of a surprise given the national polls'. Reform UK candidate Ross Lambie campaigning in the by-election (Image: Gordon Terris) He went on: 'That 26% almost matches their best performance in the Scottish local government by-election [in Clydebank]. It is higher than we would expect given the current polls in Scotland. 'It certainly is very bad news for the Conservative Party, who are frankly being had for breakfast, lunch, and dinner by Reform at the moment, so far as the public is concerned. They're at 18% in the GB-wide polls, they're down to 12% in the Scotland polls. The Conservative Party cannot afford for Reform to gain momentum north of the Border.' However, he went on to issue a warning to the SNP and Labour, saying both parties 'need to think about how are they going to effectively deal with Reform'. Curtice said: 'For all the complaints about Nigel Farage's ad [attacking Anas Sarwar], it is not clear from this result that it did any damage. 'I think I would point out to both the SNP and the Labour Party that what they ended up doing in this by-election campaign was giving an awful lot of publicity to a message that they thought was not a very good idea. 'One of the first rules in politics is to avoid scratching the itch of things you do not like because you simply end up potentially giving them airtime. READ MORE: Angus Robertson tears into BBC coverage of Hamilton by-election count on live TV 'And the truth is that evidently Mr Farage's message was not sufficiently unacceptable for at least a body of people in Hamilton for Reform to record a quite notable share of the vote, and certainly the highest share of the vote won in a parliamentary contest by any anti-EU party in Scotland.' Asked where Reform's vote had come from, Curtice said: 'Around one in four of the people who voted Conservative last year, diminished in number as they were, in Scotland are switching to Reform. 'But Labour also are losing somewhere between one in six and one in five of their voters to Reform of the ones they had last year.' He added that Scottish voters who backed Labour in 2024 are more likely to switch to Reform than English voters, saying that south of the Border Labour 'are losing about 10% of their vote to Reform'.
Scotsman
5 days ago
- General
- Scotsman
Professor Sir John Curtice gives his predictions for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election
Voters go to the polls in the crunch by-election on Thursday. Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... The SNP looks set to win this week's Holyrood by-election, according to polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice. With less than 48 hours to go until the polls open for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, it looks to be a 'close' fight between the SNP and Nigel Farage's Reform UK. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Professor Curtice predicts it will be tight, and the winner might come away with less than a third of the overall votes. Political scientist Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University. Picture:|Speaking on BBC Good Morning Scotland, he said: 'Whoever wins, the SNP are the favourites but there are no polls to anticipate that, but if Hamilton follows evidence of the national polls, it will be a close contest. 'It ought to be close between SNP and Reform, and maybe Reform will do somewhat better than in the national polls. "But we are looking at a winner with less than a third of the vote and winning by a small margin.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Prof Curtice says eyes will be on this week's by-election result to see if it can give an indication of how things will pan out at next year's Holyrood election. The SNP is currently leading the Holyrood polls at 33 per cent, while Scottish Labour has fallen back down to where it was polling in 2021. This comes after Scottish Labour climbed to be neck-and-neck with the SNP in the Holyrood polls last summer. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Prof Curtice said: 'The by-election will tell you where we are in Scotland, but it doesn't set Scotland on a guaranteed path. 'But if the SNP wins Hamilton with a diminished share of the vote, and Labour falls back from where it was in 2021, it will confirm the evidence we have from opinion polls. 'It will also confirm that the mood has changed on Anas Sarwar moving into Bute House and that the SNP looks favourite to remain in office. 'If Labour wins, even though they have not had the easiest of by-election campaigns, they can claim a fair amount of credit, perhaps more than necessary.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad
The Herald Scotland
01-06-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Curtice: Scotland could learn important lesson from Reform
SNP leader John Swinney has declared the contest a two-horse race between the two-parties, accusing Labour of giving up on the by-election. Strathclyde University academic Professor Curtice said Reform were making a political storm in Scotland, aided by the messaging of his political opponents such as Mr Swinney as Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. 'Reform has dominated the campaign in the last week for good or ill,' he told The Herald, adding that the party could come second in Hamilton, if Labour's vote share 'heavily' declines. 'At the moment, the expectation would probably be that SNP are the favourites, albeit probably on a very much diminished share of the vote,' he added. Mr Swinney wrote to constituents in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse through a letter in the Daily Record to accuse Reform of all but stating 'they would roll back on the powers of the Scottish Parliament'. Read more: The First Minister added: 'He is a clear and present danger to our country and must be stopped.' However, Professor Curtice cast doubt on the claim Mr Farage was a threat to Holyrood and devolution. He said: 'It's not obvious why Reform should want to get rid of the devolved structure, particularly of course because the proportional representation list system in Scotland is going to be helpful to it. 'But what would be uncomfortable for people like Swinney and Sarwar, is what might be the consequences of a strong Reform presence for the way in which Reform operates because essentially they will be uncoalitionable - they are a party which whoever is running the government would not want to be doing deals with.' A Survation poll, commissioned by True North Advisors, earlier this month suggested Mr Farage's party could be the main opposition in Holyrood, slightly ahead of Labour with 19% on the constituency vote and 20% on the list. The by-election, however, was thought initially to be a close race between the SNP and Scottish Labour. Senior figures in Scottish Labour have been forced to deny claims their campaign has fell apart, with Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner telling journalists in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse that her party was still 'in it to win it'. Read more: Professor Curtice added: 'If you've got, let's say a dozen to 16 [Reform] MSPs in Holyrood, who are out of the frame, it makes the parliamentary arithmetic and minority governments more difficult. 'The impression that many people in Scotland like to feel, which is that Scotland is a markedly more left-wing country than England and for evidence of that they point to the fact that the Tory party is much weaker, and the representation at Holyrood is dominated by centre-left parties. 'But actually, some of us have been arguing for quite a long time that Scotland is only a wee but more left-wing in England. There are people in Scotland who are not necessarily progressive. '[Reform in Holyrood] would disturb some people's views about the character of the Scottish electorate and the character of Scottish politics. 'Let's be frank, we're still talking about Reform being markedly weaker in Scotland than they are in England. It's just that they are, at the moment, the most popular party as a whole. 'Many people would be learning an important lesson indeed if they were to be surprised [by the result].'
