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New York Times
26-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Making the call on Edmonton Oilers' reaction and recovery to offer-sheet blindside
The Edmonton Oilers were slammed by offer sheet hell last summer, and made the decision not to match. New general manager Stan Bowman quickly checked down and made two deals to address the situation. How has it worked out? How much did the Oilers surrender in allowing Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to sign offer sheets with the St. Louis Blues? Advertisement The sample is always a worry when making claims about trade results, but we are deep into the season. New Oilers Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin have both had an opportunity to prove themselves in Edmonton. What's the story? Podkolzin has emerged as a useful player with the Oilers and received a push from the coaching staff that landed him on the No. 2 line with Leon Draisaitl. Playing with the big man at centre, Podkolzin has played 465 minutes, posting 2.19 points per 60 and a goal share of 58 percent. That's a major lift. Holloway found an immediate feature role on a line with Brayden Schenn. He's scoring 2.36 points per 60 and is helping his line outscore opponents at an impressive 63 percent clip. Here's a look at the overall scoring numbers for the two men. All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick Holloway is clearly the more productive player, delivering superior offence in a more prominent (two more minutes per game) role. Podkolzin's totals are solid, impressive considering he was a midsummer acquisition by a team willing to give him up for a middle-round selection. It's also true that he has been on Draisaitl's line for over 50 percent of his five-on-five time this season, so those offensive numbers arrived while playing a complementary role. Holloway towers over Podkolzin's production. In fact, Holloway was regarded as a tremendous athlete on his draft day, and the worry surrounded his ability to score in the NHL. It's no longer a worry. Puck IQ separates quality opposition, giving us a chance to not only see the results but also measure them against quality of competition. Against elites, Holloway has played 25 percent of his overall five-on-five minutes against elites (3:30 per game, implying second-line minutes). His goal share (72 percent) and Dangerous Fenwick (50 percent, it's similar to expected goals) indicate his line is a strong one against elites, and has been running luck while also playing well in 2024-25. Advertisement Meanwhile, Podkolzin has been spending 30 percent of his five-on-five time (3:41 per game, also second-line deployment) against the league's best. His goal share (44 percent) is low, and runs counter to his expected share (58 percent Dangerous Fenwick). Podkolzin's line has been unlucky in those minutes, and those numbers should regress as the season reaches its conclusion and the playoffs begin. Podkolzin averages 46 seconds per game on the penalty kill; the Oilers' results in those minutes have been positive compared to other penalty-killing forwards. Holloway spends about 90 seconds per game on the power play and is flourishing. He leads the Blues with 6.7 points per game with the man advantage. On the weekend, Bowman suggested matching both contracts would have forced the team to make deals that would have stripped down the roster in some important places. The gap between Holloway's cap and Podkolzin's this season is around $1.3 million, a manageable sum for a player of Holloway's talent. The reasons for Edmonton allowing Holloway to sign with St. Louis may never be known. It isn't reasonable to suggest that cap room was a deciding issue in this case. Bowman should be credited with finding a capable replacement on short notice and at a low asset cost. Podkolzin aside, the thrust of the Holloway portion of the offer sheet is a clear fail for the Oilers, though. Broberg is playing big minutes for the Blues. Puck IQ has him playing second-pairing this season. Against elites, his Dangerous Fenwick is just over 50 percent, but his goal share (11-1) is a scintillating 91 percent. That includes plenty of good fortune, but Broberg has been present and effective in those minutes. The Blues spent big on Broberg (over $4.5 million AAV), and he was clearly the top target. Management's faith in the player has been repaid handsomely. Advertisement Emberson has been a quality contributor for Edmonton, but at a lower level than Broberg in St. Louis. Looking at Puck IQ's minutes versus elites, Emberson is playing 24 percent of his minutes versus elites. That compares to Broberg's 28 percent. Emberson is third pairing against the league's best, and owns 41 percent goal share and 46 percent Dangerous Fenwick. Broberg is easily the class of this group, with a much wider gap than we see between Holloway and Podkolzin. Broberg is spending 30 seconds a game on the power play and has had some success. He was exceptional in the role with the Bakersfield Condors during his extended AHL time, and that's an area he could grow into as time rolls along. On the penalty kill, Broberg averages more than a minute on a special-teams group that has had its troubles. Emberson's strength with the Oilers is his PK presence. He averages just over two minutes per game on the penalty kill and has delivered strong numbers compared to other Oilers defencemen. It's the single biggest contribution he has made in 2024-25. Emberson's cap hit (under $1 million) is well shy of Broberg's, and Bowman's claim about roster shakeup certainty on matching has some merit in this part of the transaction. The Blues saw a vulnerable organization, took advantage and struck with impressive precision. Broberg was the primary target, Holloway a pleasant bonus. One of the favourite online discussions for Oilers fans is naming the most culpable individual in the lead-up to the offer sheets and eventual trades. The die was cast by December 2023. Daniel Nugent-Bowman's article at The Athletic early that month signaled things had reached a point of no return for Broberg. Ken Holland, general manager at the time, could have dealt the young defenceman and eased any concern about a coming offer sheet. Advertisement Holland once championed Broberg, drafting him as one of his first major moves when arriving in Edmonton. He then proceeded to block the youngster at every available turn. Darnell Nurse was already playing left defence for Edmonton, but Holland acquired Brett Kulak and Mattias Ekholm during the years that followed, effectively leaving Broberg on the outside looking in. Holloway's exit was unnecessary. The club could have matched the money, but chose not to do so. The young winger may have been influenced to sign with St. Louis by the July 1 activity by acting GM Jeff Jackson. Edmonton signed veteran wingers Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, and re-signed centre Adam Henrique, effectively cutting off NHL jobs that could have fallen to Holloway in a fashion similar to Holland's actions with Broberg's possible job options in the NHL. Bowman chose to let both players go, his recent comments suggesting he believed the team would have to be partially dismantled in order to accommodate the two new contracts for Broberg and Holloway. No matter the reasons, it's not a good look for the organization. The Oilers were blindsided, caught unaware by an innovative and progressive organization. There's a lesson here for Edmonton's management. Their actions this coming summer and in the years ahead will inform fans about how these hard lessons impacted the team. Oilers fans should hope the dual offer sheets and eventual loss of two quality players were effective in changing behaviour. (Photo of Vasily Podkolzin: Danny Wild / Imagn Images)
New York Times
17-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
What the Edmonton Oilers can expect from Trent Frederic when he enters lineup
NHL fans look forward to each trade deadline as a chance to add talent to their favourite team. If that club is in a championship window, the expectation is at least one deadline addition and an immediate improvement in that area of the roster. If things work out well, there's a chance the team will sign the incoming player, who is often on an expiring contract. Advertisement Trent Frederic has yet to make an impact on the Edmonton Oilers due to injury. He will soon start ramping up for his first NHL action with his new team. Anticipation is high and there's a good chance his playing style will make him a fan favourite in short order. Frederic is a rugged player who plays with an edge. He's done it from his first NHL game to his last for the Boston Bruins before his trade to Edmonton. Frederic was a mild surprise as a first-round pick for Boston in 2016. The first 30-plus picks are usually reserved for top offensive talents, and Frederic projected as a complementary scorer in his draft season. The Bruins drafted him because the style fit the team's aggressive attitude. Frederic is a big man (6-foot-3, 221 pounds) and he skates well (NHL Edge has him about average, with some nice secondary numbers) for a player his size. He's difficult to play against, plays to the whistle and then some, and isn't hesitant to play in tough areas of the ice. As much as he fit Boston's style in 2016, Frederic's special brand of hitting (he pushes through the check) should have the same impact in Edmonton. Frederic is as his scouting report on draft day suggested: reliant offensively on a linemate who can drive possession and create plays while offering physical play that often upsets opponents. Defensively, he's not ideally suited to playing against elite competition. Using Puck IQ's unique binning (quality of competition splits) we get a view of how much coaches trusted Frederic in Boston. All numbers five-on-five, via Puck IQ This is a player who spent more than 70 percent of his five-on-five NHL time against mid- or low-level competition. The Bruins have been a veteran club and a strong contender during Frederic's Boston career (save for this season), so superior options were available. Advertisement When he did play versus elites, the results were not strong enough for him to push up the depth chart (as shown above). If we mine Puck IQ's assessment of Frederic with Charlie Coyle (his most common linemate) over the last four seasons, we get a more accurate view of the player. DFF percentage is dangerous Fenwick, a measure similar to expected goals. It gives us a clearer view of a line's success when playing against the league's best opponents. Frederic-Coyle posted a strong DFF percentage in 2021-22 (60 percent in 132 minutes, 5-2 goals) in a season the Bruins delivered success (51 wins). The following year, Boston won 65 games, and Frederic-Coyle faced elites 163 minutes, posting a below average Dangerous Fenwick (47 percent) but a stunning 11-2 goal share. That kind of contrary number set can often be credited to goaltending and luck. By 2023-24, the club no longer enjoyed the incredible talents of Patrice Bergeron but won 47 games anyway. Frederic was paired most often with Morgan Geekie (101 minutes) with a galling DFF percentage (35 percent) that resulted in a below par goal (8-10) differential. This season, before his injury and the trade to Edmonton, Frederic was back with Coyle as his most common linemate at five-on-five. The line saw action versus elites for 82 minutes, went 2-4 goals and was dominated by the opposition's best (39 percent Dangerous Fenwick). The Bruins today are not the Bruins of 2022-23. A change of scenery can help complementary forwards, and that could be the case with Frederic. Pat Maroon flourished on a line with Connor McDavid not long after struggling with linemates Rickard Rakell and Corey Perry as a member of the Anaheim Ducks. The Oilers might use Frederic at centre, as the fourth-line pivot chores are being done by natural wingers. A good case can be made for Frederic being at his best on the wing, but if he can handle centre there's a chance his trio will pass the Adam Henrique (No. 3) line during some games. As a scorer, Frederic's output depends quite a lot on his linemates but he's significantly more than a fringe scorer. Here's a quick view of the last three seasons of five-on-five scoring with various linemates. All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick These numbers show Frederic as a fine complementary scorer at five-on-five. They imply he might have more offence than some of the wingers currently being deployed on Edmonton's top two lines. Put another way, if Frederic can deliver 2 points per 60 playing on a line with Coyle, Geekie or Danton Heinen, there's a good chance he can post more offence than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has managed on the McDavid line this season. The same applies for Vasily Podkolzin on the Leon Draisaitl No. 2 line. Advertisement Frederic is a physical winger with skill. He's not a strong playmaker and does not own a massive shot (although NHL Edge tells us he can crank the puck when hitting it flush) that can beat goalies clean from range. This season, he averaged 5.8 shots per 60 at five-on-five, with a 10.8 shooting percentage. That's a low shot total but a productive scoring rate. He averaged 12.8 hits per 60 at five-on-five; that total would rank No. 1 among Edmonton's regular forwards this season. Fans will appreciate Frederic's ability to use hitting effectively. He takes the opponent out of the play for an entire sequence while also delivering a message. He's no shy violet and can handle himself in a battle. A guess would have his best position as left wing on Draisaitl's line. The two big men could turn over pucks, punish defencemen and generally create chaos deep in the opposition zone. Frederic isn't an offensive winger, but rather a throwback to the days when big men patrolled their wing, dished out punishment (and absorbed it too) while scoring enough to stay in the lineup. For an Oilers team with several wingers who can't find the range offensively, Frederic might be a solution in more than one area.
