Latest news with #DanielaSabinHathorn
Mid East Info
10 hours ago
- Business
- Mid East Info
US labour data could give more context to a stronger-than-expected GDP in Q2 - Middle East Business News and Information
By Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at The July U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due on Friday is expected to show a further cooling in the labour market. Expectations are for an increase of around 110,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in June. This would reflect a broader trend of decelerating job growth, consistent with the Federal Reserve's goal of achieving a more balanced labour market. Some analysts expect even softer gains—closer to 95,000—citing a slowdown in government hiring. Meanwhile, ADP's private payrolls data beat expectations with a 104,000 increase and, even though the correlation between both is usually weak, it could suggest the official report could land close to consensus. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to tick slightly higher to 4.2%, up from 4.1% last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise modestly, with annual wage growth anticipated at around 3.9%. Wage data will be closely watched, as strong wage growth could signal persistent inflationary pressures, while softer wage gains would reinforce the narrative of a cooling economy. Beyond the headline numbers, structural labour constraints remain in focus. Factors such as declining immigration and an aging workforce are contributing to a slower expansion of the labour force. These supply-side constraints could put upward pressure on wages and limit long-term job growth even if demand remains steady. This labour data holds significant implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While most Fed officials currently expect to keep rates steady through the end of 2025, a notably weak jobs report could increase pressure on the Fed to begin cutting rates sooner. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected print could delay those expectations and support the U.S. dollar and bond yields. Reassessing the Q2 GDP surprise: It is also important to factor in the GDP data released on Wednesday. In the second quarter, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, rebounding sharply from a 0.5% contraction in Q1 and beating expectations. However, looking closer at the data we can see that this rebound was heavily driven by a decline in imports—which subtract from GDP—rather than strong domestic demand. Ultimately, the headline 3% figure as partly a mechanical swing tied to tariff-related front loading in Q1. Stripping out trade and inventory effects, underlying domestic activity appears much weaker. The tariff-driven buying frenzies in the beginning of the year have made it difficult to assess the underlying health and direction of the world's largest economy. Businesses drawing from inventories rather than importing new goods gave GDP an artificial boost, obscuring weaker consumer and business spending fundamentals. The strong—but contextually mixed—Q2 GDP print underscores a critical dynamic: the economy is showing signs of resilience, but the strength is uneven and likely to fade if structural weak points persist. Friday's July Non‑Farm Payrolls (NFP) will thus be a key test: it could help clarify whether labour market momentum remains robust enough to support actual demand growth. A soft NFP print, such as around 100,000 new jobs or less, would align with the subdued consumption and investment trends seen in GDP. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected jobs report (above 150k) would suggest the labour market remains firmer than top-line GDP implies and could sustain consumer spending despite broader headwinds. Additionally, wage growth and participation metrics in the NFP report will provide insight into domestic demand strength that the headline GDP number struggled to capture. As for markets, the bullish momentum seems to remain strong in US equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continuously pushing to new highs. The strong GDP data seems to have bolstered sentiment heading into the NFP reading, but S&P 500 traders should watch out for a possible RSI divergence emerging on the daily chart. As the price pushes to new highs, the RSI has failed to mark a new high since the beginning of July. If the index is unable to follow the price and break above 76.75 then buyers may be in for some weakness ahead, with a possible technical correction on the horizon. S&P 500 daily chart: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Mid East Info
a day ago
- Business
- Mid East Info
Silver Outlook: consolidation ahead of FOMC meeting as fundamental drivers remain
By Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Silver XAG/USD has hovered near the $38.00 mark over recent sessions, pausing after a period of strong upward momentum. Friday's sharp selloff unwound part of the recent gains, keeping the price pinned below the 5-day Exponential Moving Average—a short-term resistance level. Despite this setback, the retreat appears to be a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with the bias still skewed to the upside in the short-to-medium term. From a technical perspective, traders should closely monitor the $37.50 level. A sustained break below this threshold may signal further downside potential, while a close above $38.35 could reaffirm bullish momentum. Silver XAG/USD daily chart: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 1. Monetary Policy and Real Yields Silver, like other non-yielding assets, tends to benefit when interest rate expectations shift lower. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to keep rates on hold in the near term—and potentially lay the groundwork for future cuts—silver's appeal has strengthened. Declining real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, making silver an increasingly attractive store of value. 2. Geopolitical and Macro Backdrop Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and shifting trade relationships have enhanced silver's reputation as a safe-haven asset. Yet silver stands apart from gold due to its dual nature—it's both a financial hedge and an essential industrial input. The metal plays a vital role in the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics, making it a beneficiary of both risk-off sentiment and renewed global growth optimism from trade disputes being resolved. 3. Structural Supply Deficit Beyond sentiment, fundamental supply-demand dynamics are also in silver's favour. Strong industrial demand, combined with tighter mine production, has created a structural supply shortfall. This supply imbalance continues to support prices even as some of the macroeconomic drivers wane. Despite the bullish setup, several headwinds could challenge silver's ascent: Hawkish Fed Risk: The most pressing threat lies in the potential for a hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve. If policymakers further delay expected rate cuts or respond aggressively to renewed inflation pressures, the resulting spike in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could dampen silver's appeal. Global Industrial Slowdown: Silver's industrial side makes it highly sensitive to the health of global manufacturing. Any marked slowdown—particularly in China or other key industrial hubs—could weigh on demand expectations and cap price gains. As markets await Wednesday's FOMC meeting, volatility in precious metals may increase. While the Fed is not expected to change its policy stance, any signals on the path of future rate decisions will be closely scrutinized by silver and gold traders alike.
Mid East Info
3 days ago
- Business
- Mid East Info
Market Mondays: Tariff Deals, Tech Earnings and Fed Signals
By Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at With a wave of international trade agreements taking shape and key economic data on the horizon, global markets are recalibrating their expectations. While tariff concerns have eased for now, attention has turned to earnings season and the Federal Reserve's next move. Trade Tensions Subside, but Unease Remains Recent trade agreements between the United States and key partners, including the European Union and Japan, have reduced immediate risks for global markets. Although these deals remove some uncertainty, they leave important questions unanswered—particularly around enforcement and long-term viability. Despite agreements to limit tariffs to around 15%—a far cry from the earlier threats of 30% to 50%—concerns linger over the uneven terms of these deals. The EU, for example, has committed to purchasing approximately $750 billion in U.S. energy and making additional investments worth $600 billion. Meanwhile, certain sectors, such as aluminium and steel, remain subject to higher tariffs. Markets initially responded positively, particularly during the Asian open, with European equity futures pointing higher. However, these gains proved short-lived, as investors took a closer look at the underlying terms of the deals. The perception that the U.S. has come out ahead, while others have made larger concessions, may be fuelling scepticism—especially in European markets. Monetary Policy Outlook: No Cut Expected Yet As the dust settles on trade negotiations, attention is turning toward the Federal Reserve and upcoming economic data. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady in its upcoming meeting. There is little urgency to cut, especially with inflation still hovering at uncomfortable levels and economic data showing continued resilience. Second-quarter GDP growth is projected to come in around 2.4%, according to forecasts. This would mark a significant rebound from the previous quarter and reinforce the strength of the U.S. economy relative to other developed nations. Meanwhile, consumer inflation has shown modest increases, with some businesses beginning to pass on higher input costs due to tariffs. A key data point—the PCE price index—will help inform the Fed's path forward. Labour market data is also expected to show stable conditions, with only a slight uptick in the unemployment rate anticipated. Markets are currently pricing in one to two rate cuts before the end of the year, but this may prove optimistic unless there is a clear downturn in either inflation or labour market strength. The Federal Reserve appears poised to wait for more conclusive evidence before adjusting its policy stance. Corporate Earnings in Focus: AI, Capex, and Economic Health This week marks a critical phase of earnings season, with tech giants Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft reporting results. These companies are under close scrutiny for their ability to convert artificial intelligence investments into actual revenue, as well as their discipline on capital expenditure. Last week, Alphabet posted robust results, beating expectations across the board. Although a higher-than-expected capex figure caused brief market jitters, the strength of its earnings helped reinforce investor confidence. The takeaway: markets appear more tolerant of increased spending—so long as there is visible progress on AI monetization and profitability. Apple, in contrast, is seen as more vulnerable due to its limited AI positioning and slowing growth in key markets like China, where domestic competitors are gaining ground. The performance of these tech leaders will likely set the tone for the rest of the quarter. Despite earlier concerns about profit margins, a strong majority—approximately 84%—of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have exceeded earnings expectations. This is the best showing in several years and suggests that corporate America remains resilient. Outlook: Optimism with a Note of Caution Equity markets continue to hover near record highs, supported by strong earnings, easing trade tensions, and solid economic data. However, there are signs of stretched valuations and low implied volatility, leaving room for sharper reactions if future data or earnings disappoint. For now, the prevailing sentiment remains constructive. With major risks seemingly neutralized and economic indicators holding up, the path of least resistance appears to be upward. That said, any unexpected weakness—whether in earnings, inflation, or labour – could introduce volatility in an otherwise optimistic landscape.
Yahoo
23-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Krispy Kreme Is Getting Some Meme Investor Love. How Should You Play DNUT Stock Here?
Krispy Kreme (DNUT) shares opened roughly 40% higher today as meme stock enthusiasts shifted focus from the likes of Opendoor (OPEN) and Kohl's (KSS) to the doughnut company. According to multiple sources, more than 30% of DNUT's float is currently sold short, making it a prime candidate for a short squeeze. More News from Barchart Nvidia Stock Warning: This NVDA Challenger Just Scored a Major Customer Dear Microsoft Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 30 Dear QuantumScape Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 23 Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. While Krispy Kreme stock has pared back some of its intraday gains in recent hours, at one point, it was seen trading well over 100% up versus its year-to-date low set in late June. Why Is It Risky to Chase the Meme Stock Rally in Krispy Kreme Stock? The meme stock frenzy in DNUT shares offered lucrative returns to investors this morning, but chasing that momentum now may prove a textbook case of trying to catch a falling knife, according to Daniela Sabin Hathorn – a analyst. 'The risks are just as stark as the rewards,' she write in a research note today, adding retail driven rallies like the one in Krispy Kreme stock on Wednesday are often 'disconnected from fundamentals' and, therefore, run the risk of reversing just as quickly. In short, Hathorn recommends accepting the ship has already sailed instead of initiating a position in the food company on the pullback – hoping another short squeeze may materialize in it in the coming days. Sinking Revenue Remains an Overhang for DNUT Shares Investors should practice caution in owning Krispy Kreme shares amid ongoing speculation also because the company's financials remain deeply challenged. In its latest reported quarter, the Charlotte-headquartered firm generated roughly $375 million in revenue, down a more-than-expected 15% on a year-over-year basis. Additionally, Krispy Kreme continued to burn cash, losing about $0.05 on a per-share basis in its fiscal Q1. Krispy Kreme Is Trading Well Below the Street's Mean Target Despite thin financials and risks related to the company's newly earned meme stock status, Wall Street analysts believe DNUT shares have significant room to the upside from current levels. While the consensus rating on Krispy Kreme stock sits at 'Hold' only, the mean target of roughly $6.33 indicates potential upside of more than 45% from here. On the date of publication, Wajeeh Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
23-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Shares of Krispy Kreme Are Surging Today
Key Points Krispy Kreme appears to have been chosen as one of the next meme stocks. Short interest in the stock was very high not too long ago. The company has been struggling. 10 stocks we like better than Krispy Kreme › Shares of iconic donut brand Krispy Kreme (NASDAQ: DNUT) traded over 11% higher, as of 11:16 a.m. ET today. The stock had been up close to 39% in pre-market trading and had a big day yesterday as well. It's clear that meme stock investors have added Krispy Kreme to their list. The return of meme stocks While meme stocks never went away, interest has clearly been rejuvenated as the stock market has significantly rebounded from lows in April. Other meme stocks like Opendoor and Kohl's have also blasted higher. "First, retail trading forums and social platforms have once again become engines of crowd momentum," senior market analyst Daniela Sabin Hathorn wrote in a research note, according to MarketWatch. "Second, these stocks are all heavily shorted, setting the stage for violent short squeezes when buying pressure ramps up." Short interest in Krispy Kreme had been as high as roughly 28%, according to MarketWatch. In the first quarter of 2025, Krispy Kreme reported a net loss of over $33 million, while revenue decline about 15% year over year. Invest at your own risk As many retail investors hopefully know by now, investing in meme stocks is incredibly risky, as evidenced already by today's move, because these stocks no longer trade on fundamentals. Many reach dizzying highs, but eventually come down over time. It's not a good sign to see a company reporting higher losses on declining revenue. I would recommend staying away from Krispy Kreme, but if you find investing in meme stocks is a fun kind of thrill, only invest what you can afford to lose. Do the experts think Krispy Kreme is a buy right now? The Motley Fool's expert analyst team, drawing on years of investing experience and deep analysis of thousands of stocks, leverages our proprietary Moneyball AI investing database to uncover top opportunities. They've just revealed their to buy now — did Krispy Kreme make the list? When our Stock Advisor analyst team has a stock recommendation, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is up 1,034% vs. just 180% for the S&P — that is beating the market by 853.75%!* Imagine if you were a Stock Advisor member when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $641,800!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,023,813!* The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025 Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Why Shares of Krispy Kreme Are Surging Today was originally published by The Motley Fool
