Latest news with #Dotcom
Newsroom
29-07-2025
- Business
- Newsroom
Liquidator hopes to close the book on Kim Dotcom's Bitcache
It's looking increasingly unlikely that anything meaningful will be recovered from Kim Dotcom's failed cryptocurrency venture, with the liquidator hoping to wrap things up by the end of the year. Bitcache, a crypto platform Dotcom pitched as a coup for how content creators would be paid, was put into liquidation in July 2023 at the request of the company's former director and lawyer.
NZ Herald
15-07-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
How investors can stack the odds in their favour in uncertain times
Despite all this, global share markets remain remarkably resilient – hovering at, or near all-time highs. Investor optimism has been fuelled by fiscal stimulus in Europe (mainly Germany) and the unstoppable rise of artificial intelligence, which just saw Nvidia become the first company to be valued at US$4 trillion. With a constant barrage of headlines and a wall of worry to climb, yet equity markets near all-time highs, investing in the share market can feel a bit like a gamble. Much like a roulette wheel – black you win, red you lose. But is this really true? Is the share market a casino? While it's tempting to see markets as games of chance, the evidence tells a very different story. Unlike the casino, where there is only one winner, the share market is not a zero-sum game. History suggests that patient, long-term investors – rather than lucky punters – stand to win, as share markets tend to rise over time. The house always wins Casino games are typically win or lose affairs, with the probabilities skewed in favour of the house. That's why they say, 'the house always wins'. Take roulette, for example. The wheel, in most instances, has 38 numbers: 1 to 36 in either red or black, plus 0 and 00 in green. The dealer spins the wheel and the ball falls on one of the numbers. The simplest bet is on whether the ball will fall on a red or black number, which has odds just over 47%. If you put $5 on red, and the ball lands on black or green, you lose your entire $5. The win-win game In contrast, for patient investors, the share market tends to be a win-win game. History has shown that share markets have risen through time. $100 invested in the US at the beginning of this century – just before the Dotcom bust – would now be worth around $580, despite the global financial crisis and the Covid pandemic. Data from J.P. Morgan Asset Management underscores the power of a long-term mindset. The worst drop in the US S&P500 stock market index over any year since 1950 is -37%. Yet for those who stayed invested, the lowest annualised return over any 20-year rolling period since then was still +6% a year. All about the long-term Investors should avoid treating the share market like a casino by trying to predict what will happen in the next week, month or even year. Shifting away from long-term investing into short-term speculation pushes investors closer to gambling. Even if an investor could accurately predict an event, they would still need to anticipate how other investors might react. Sometimes bad news is already priced in, causing markets to rise rather than fall. Then comes the challenge of timing both entries and exits to maximise returns. That is four decisions to get consistently right to generate healthy returns – even before considering random or unforeseeable shocks like Covid – an almost impossible feat. Click to trade, easy to gamble As it has become easier to trade shares in companies, more people are approaching investing with a short-term mindset, blurring the lines between stock market investing and gambling. In the 1950s, the average holding period for US shares was around eight years. By the 1980s, that fell to two to three years. Today, the average holding period for retail investors is just six months or even less. It can be hard to sit on your hands and do nothing during volatile times, even though that is exactly the right approach to take, according to history. But please, don't just take my word for it. Listen to Warren Buffett, recently retired, and arguably the greatest investor of all time. 'If you own your stocks as an investment – just like you'd own an apartment, house or a farm – look at them as a business,' he says. 'If you're going to try to buy and sell them based on news or something your neighbour tells you, you're not going to do well. Find a good bunch of businesses and hold them.' Long-term investing is just the opposite of gambling. May the odds be always in your favour.
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘Irrational Exuberance' Stock Gauge Sparks Fresh Bubble Worries
(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street speculators have returned in full force: US stocks have snapped back from the throes of April's tariff selloff, hovering near record highs, the pipeline of new SPACs is rebounding and Cathie Wood's flagship fund is on a historic tear. Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Sprawl Is Still Not the Answer California Exempts Building Projects From Environmental Law What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing That's sparked a swift jump in a Barclays Plc measure of the market's 'irrational exuberance' — a phrase coined by former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan for when prices exceed assets' fundamental values. The one-month average on the proprietary gauge has swung back into the double-digits for the first time since February — reaching levels that have signaled extreme frothiness in the past. The bank noted that the measure, which is calculated from derivatives metrics, volatility technicals and sentiment signals inferred from options markets, has historically averaged around 7%, but occasionally it peaks above 10% as during the Dotcom era of the late 1990s, and the meme-stock frenzy of 2021. The gauge currently sits around 10.7%, data compiled by Barclays show. 'Fundamentals have taken a back seat again as stocks with hot narratives are trading like lottery tickets,' said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Investments. He points out sentiment gauges like relative strength readings and valuation multiples are once again looking extended. 'That sets the stage for a sharp air-pocket on the next bad headline.' Animal spirits have been revived on optimism that the US is making progress on reaching trade deals with key partners — or that President Donald Trump will at least postpone his July 9 tariff deadline. There's also speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. The upshot is that stocks set a record high on Friday for the first time since February. Frothy Signals Barclays sees abundant signs of froth, with listings of new blank-check companies in 2025 already surpassing the last two years combined. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) — a proxy for profitless technology firms — posted one of its best rallies in history, second only to the post-Covid surge. In the second quarter, Bitcoin-linked firms rallied 78%, while quantum computing shares climbed 69% and meme stocks advanced 44% — all volatile corners where investors are betting on future returns that may not materialize. A basket of highly shorted securities rallied 29%. 'Elevated readings of the indicator suggest that investors may be overly exuberant, which could lead to increased market volatility,' said Stefano Pascale, head of US equity derivatives strategy at Barclays. Pascale described the exuberance measure, which the firm dubs its Equity Euphoria Indicator, as measuring the proportion of euphoric stocks within a universe of US equities that have liquid options. It correlates with other popular metrics that measure retail investing, such as the net debit position of margin accounts, which shows the amount of borrowed money for a trade. Despite elevated levels, Pascale argues that bubbles are difficult to time and can expand for extended periods before correcting. As such, he recommends riding the wave for now and hedging with options to curb potential losses if things go awry. --With assistance from Jan-Patrick Barnert. SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too How to Steal a House America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Macro strategist explains why it's a good time to own Russell 2000
-- In a note to clients on Monday, Evercore ISI analysts argued that despite recent struggles, "universally unloved Small Caps" are now in a "So Bad, It's Good" tactical position, making it an opportune time to buy the Russell 2000. Small Caps have been particularly impacted by tariffs and uncertainty, suffering as "Price Takers, not Price Makers," said Evercore. They note that the year-to-date performance through May ranks among the weakest since 1990, extending an underperformance streak approaching Dotcom troughs. However, Evercore ISI suggests that with trade uncertainty potentially peaking, the current "cratered sentiment intersects with favorable June seasonality." They explain that historically, the "Small Size reliably outperforms" in June, coinciding with the annual Russell Index Rebalance. This trend is expected to be amplified in 2025, given strong historical reversion in years with similarly weak year-to-date Size factor returns. Beyond this tactical opportunity, the longer-term case for Small Cap outperformance rests on "attractive valuation vs. Large Cap," a "cutting Fed," and "potential Policy (Trade/BBB legislation) catalysts." Evercore ISI recommends buying IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) for broad exposure. Additionally, they screen for "Small Size, Big Alpha" stocks – Russell 2000 companies exhibiting "Strong Sentiment and High Profitability." They also suggest pairing these investments with "Set It and Forget It" SPY Option Hedges ahead of potential summer volatility. The analysts note that a recent rally in stocks following Trump-Xi talks and a solid Jobs report has eased earlier concerns. 'With SPX at 23x 2025e EPS, selectivity (positioning, options hedges) is key,' concludes Evercore. Related articles Macro strategist explains why it's a good time to own Russell 2000 Tesla downgraded as 'uncertainty abounds' Echostar stock sinks amid bankruptcy considerations
CNBC
03-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
53-year-old's career survived the Dotcom tech crash—her advice for people working in AI now: ‘Don't be a fraud'
Growing up, Gabrielle Heyman, 53, did not know what she wanted to do with her life. "I thought that I wanted to be in film when I was younger because I'm from L.A. and I have family in film," she says. "But then when I tried it, I found people were just really mean," especially to those in the assistant positions she was taking. It was while working as an assistant at CBS in 1998 that she decided to apply for a job at the company doing sales for online campaigns. "It was the dawn of the internet," she says, "so they were just building their internet ad sales team." The people were nicer, it turned out, and she found she had a knack for sales. Heyman continued to build her career with roles at Electronic Arts, Yahoo and BuzzFeed. Today, she serves as vice president of global brand sales and partnerships for video game developer Zynga. Despite her eventual success, those early days of the World Wide Web were tenuous. Here's how Heyman survived and her advice for anyone starting in a brand-new field — like today's budding AI. There was a lot of hype around the internet when Heyman started her career. The 1990s saw lots of investment in internet-based companies, but beginning in 2001, when many of those companies ultimately failed and shut down, the Dotcom bubble burst. As many as 168,395 tech jobs were cut that year alone, according to outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "I was sure I was going to be laid off in the Dotcom crash," she says. She was working at Electronic Arts by then, which cut 250 jobs in October 2001. "And I wasn't laid off." Heyman believes what helped her hold onto her job was being both good at and passionate about what she was doing. You have to "know your s---" in these moments, she says. "Don't be a fraud." When industries are the zeitgeist, many people flock to them to try to capitalize on the boom. That includes entrepreneurs creating businesses with no clear path for profitability, she says. The draw is the opportunity to cash in rather than their genuine interest in making something that works, she says. When demand for that field levels out and some of those companies fold, "there's a lot of riff raff cut out," she says of the people who aren't genuinely interested — taking many jobs with them. To survive in a new field — like AI, for example — you have to care about it. That means reading articles, "being up on what clients are doing, playing with the technology yourself," Heyman says. And be discerning about who you're interviewing with. "Look at how the company is investing in long-term talent, infrastructure and leadership," she says, adding that, "it's often easy to spot the difference between companies chasing trends and those building for the future."
