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Miami Herald
5 days ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Markets start to gear up for summer drama
Investors have a problem to work through: How to decide how and when to invest or sell - and what all that entails. Stocks had a good week, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rising 1.5% and closing above 6,000 for the first time since Feb. 21. Friday's big rally had some market watchers declare 6,500 on the index a real possibility. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter The other big averages rose at least 1.2% on the week. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index jumped 2.9%. There were lots of winners like: On Semiconductor (ON) , up 19.4%.Quantum Computing (QUBT) , up 21%.Robinhood Markets (HOOD) , up 13.2%.Appliance/electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY) , up 10.2%. And one clear non-winner: Tesla (TSLA) , down more than 14.8% in the wake of CEO Elon Musk's flame-throwing departure from the White House. An important downside: Bond yields moved up. The 10-year Treasury finished Frida with a 4.512% yield. Mortgage rates adjusted nearly to 7%. "I truly find it remarkable that interest rates (the foundation of all discounted dividend/cash flow models) are climbing so rapidly, yet equities are unconcerned," Doug Kass wrote in his Daily Diary on the Street Pro. Related: Scott Galloway sends blunt message to Elon Musk The week ahead offers some important earnings reports, but if you you're thinking of putting money to work, take a breath. This may also be a week in which what happens outside the stock and bond markets may prove more important that what happens. The events start with the meeting scheduled Monday in London between trade representatives from the United States and China to get the tariff negotiations moving. There is an August deadline get to a deal done, and President Donald Trump, not known for patience, may begin to get antsy. Related: Berkshire Hathaway shares sag since Buffett say he's retiring There is a closer deadline: July 9 for all the other trade deals to get done, and one isn't hearing much on that front, either. Markets will start getting nervous over these problems, and it will be tricky then because second-quarter earnings reports will start to come out. In addition, Apple (AAPL) is holding its World Wide Developer Conference this week. News may be committed at the event. Delta Air Lines (DAL) and PepsiCo (PEP) are expected to report the week of July 7. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) says it will report on July 15. Another factor to consider: an expected drop off in foreign travel to the United States. A December estimate for an 8.7% increase in foreign visitors to the U.S. in 2025 has been revised to an 8,7% decline, Bloomberg News reported. Marriott (MAR) has already trimmed its guidance for 2025 because of expected softness in U.S. and Canadian business. NurPhoto/Getty Images So far, 2025 has been a dramatic, nay wild, year for stocks. But a bad year? Not really or yet. The S&P 500 is up 2% on the year, with eight of 11 sectors showing gains. The Nasdaq is up 1.1%. The Nasdaq-100 Index, dominated by big tech stocks, is up 3.6%. Most of the gains have come since the market bottom in April. Industrials are leading the S&P 500 with a 9.7% gain this year, led by Howmet Aerospace (HWM) , which makes components for jet engines, GE Aerospace (GE) , which makes aircraft engines, and GE Vernova (GEV) , which concentrates on power equipment. The weakest sector is Consumer Discretionary, down 6.8%. The group includes Tesla, Caesar Entertainment (CZR) and homebuilders Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) . Information technology, including Microsoft (MSFT) , Apple, Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) , is up 1.1%. More Retail Stocks: Halloween retailer sounds warning consumers need to hearTarget expands same-day delivery to 100s of retailersWalmart makes surprise cuts as it looks at tariff price hikes Oracle (ORCL) has a market capitalization of nearly $500 billion. The shares are up 7.3% this year but up 42% from the April post-tariff announcement low. The earnings estimate is $1.64 a share, up slightly from a year ago's $1.63. The revenue estimate is $15.6 billion, up 9% from a year ago. Adobe (ADBE) is best known for tools to design and produce content. Anyone who has sent a .pdf file to any where has probably used Adobe software. The earnings estimate is $4.97 a share, up 11% from a year. Revenue is estimated at $5.8 billion, up 9.3%. Adobe shares are down 6.2% this year. Mostly that is because valuation is more appropriate. The shares had been at 30 times earnings. That's down to 20. Smucker (SJM) , the Ohio maker of jams, peanut butter (Adams) bought Hostess Brands, makers of no less than Hostess Twinkies, for $4.6 billion. Digesting the acquisition has been hard. The sweet snacks business faces huge headwinds in the demand for healthier snacks. (Can you say Wegovy and Mounjaro?) Smucker shares are up just 0.7% this year. The company took a big write-down in the first quarter. This quarter's report is all about showing progress on the problem. The earnings estimate is $2.25 a share, down from $2.66 a year ago. The revenue forecast is $2.19 billion, down slightly from last year's $2.21 billion. Gamestop (GME) is the world's largest video game, consumer electronics, and gaming merchandise retailer. The revenue estimate is $796.8 million, down 9.6% from a year ago. Earnings may come in a 4 cents a share. Casey's General Stores, (CASY) , Iowa-based operator of convenience stores in the Midwest and South. After Monday's close. Core & Main (CNM) , distributor of water, sewer and fire-protection products. Before Tuesday's open. Online pet-supply retailer Chewy (CHWY) . Before Wednesday's open. Related: Veteran fund manager who predicted April rally updates S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Miami Herald
02-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Stock Market Today: Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money
Happy Monday and welcome to June. This year has flown by and will be 50% over in just a few weeks. Perhaps one of the reasons that it's gone by so quickly is the sheer amount of news and volatility that we've had to absorb. It's been anything but dull! Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 0.51%. That's after being down almost 18% year to date and 21% from the high. We're now 22% off the April 7 low. If you've been bullish or bearish, this market has provided the opportunity to make, and lose, money. In May, the S&P 500 gained 6% to finish 4% off that February high. I think heatmaps tell a great visual story, so let's take a look at how S&P 500 constituents did in May. finviz Remember, the performance numbers you're looking at in each block are the gains and losses for the entire month of May. Who did well? The same stocks that have led for the past several years. Big Tech, except for Apple (AAPL) . And honestly Apple is the only one of the Mag 7 that hasn't started to trend higher. Even Tesla (TSLA) , which was cut in half earlier in the year, is trending up. Over on TheStreet Pro, Stephen Guilfoyle shares that earnings season is drawing to a close. He says that "according to FactSet, with about 98% of the S&P 500 having reported, 78% of firms so far have beaten earnings expectations while 64% of firms so far have beaten expectations for revenue generation." He also notes that health-care earnings were strong, showing growth of 43%. Which is so interesting because that's the weakest sector shown above. Doug Kass shared this tweet in his Daily Diary today, and health care may be a place to consider doing more research. So, that's May. But now it's June. Let's take a look at today's futures. ThinkOrSwim Stocks look a little lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures off by 0.31% and 0.45% respectively. Bonds are lower, too, across the yield curve, which will push rates higher. What's doing well? Gold and crude oil. Later this morning we'll receive economic reports on S&P's Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing. These will give us insight into the health of US manufacturing. Related: Economy This Week: Jobs report will show whether tariffs are hitting economy And since I'm an F1 fan and Google- and Mastercard-sponsored McLaren is leading the champsionship, here's a pic of Oscar Piastri to make you feel motivated Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock Market Today: Nvidia beats; some tariffs halted; Salesforce off on big volume
Traders took the opportunity of a strong market open to continue the selling from yesterday's close. The S&P 500 was as high as 5943, or 0.9% above yesterday's close, and has drifted lower by more than 40 points. Stock market leaders are mostly higher today, though Salesforce is lower following the software stalwart's poor forward guidance. Market breadth shows a majority of stocks lower on the day, although among the S&P 500 constituents, breadth appears to be mixed. Which stocks are trading on interesting (higher than normal) volume today? Nvidia, of course, is trading three times normal volume. Salesforce () is hitting eight times normal volume. But so is Uber () , with the ride-share company's shares falling nearly 5%.One tweet I wanted to share today was from our friends at Sentimentrader. While this hardly calls into question the current rally and uptrend off the April lows, their study suggests that the rest of 2025 could be rockier than some hope. And at TheStreet Pro, Doug Kass, a prominent longtime hedge-fund manager, has often said that investors haven't faced the huge number of potential outcomes -- social, political, economic, many more -- as they have in the past year. The latest uncertainty, he says in The Daily Diary, is the implications arising from the tariff ruling. "Will interest rates rise more swiftly, will the Fed pause in 2025, will proposed tax cuts be reduced and/or what will the administration's reaction be (as Trump goes through other channels to produce his intended policy (e.g. Section 122)?" he asks. Happy Thursday! Wednesday brought us surprises that will have broad effect on today's trading. We thought the big news would be Nvidia () , which reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue. The chipmaker also projected $45 billion in sales for Q2, which is better than analysts feared, given $8 billion in lost sales to the Chinese. Investors cheered the news and jumped in, pushing NVDA shares up almost 6%. In premarket trading, NVDA is up just over 5%. Then again, it could be argued that NVDA was the most anticipated news of the day, but not the biggest. What's been the biggest business news of 2025? President Trump's tariffs. And the U.S. Court of International Trade has just ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing tariffs using executive orders under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. The panel of three judges, two appointed by Republican presidents and one by a Democrat, ruled that it "does not read IEEPA to confer such unbounded authority..." and that an "unlimited delegation of tariff authority would constitute an improper abdication of legislative power to another branch of government." A Trump spokesman said in a widely reported statement, "It is not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency." Where do the tariffs stand now? For one thing, this doesn't block sector-level tariffs on steel and autos. Goldman Sachs analysts say that Trump still has other tools at his disposal to levy tariffs. Between NVDA's strong earnings report and the tariff news, S&P 500 futures were up as much as 1.8% but have been falling since 6am EDT. In economic news today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that GDP for the first quarter decreased at an annual rate of 0.2%. This compares with an annualized gain of 2.4% in fourth-quarter 2024. Otherwise, U.S. Treasuries and gold are trading higher. Crude oil is down. Stock Market Today: Nvidia beats; some tariffs halted; Salesforce off on big volume first appeared on TheStreet on May 29, 2025
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Hedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming Greece
Maybe you forget Grexit, the nickname given to Greece's multi-year financial crisis in the mid-2010s. It had many people, investors and governments worried the small nation would be forced to withdraw from the European Union. It was a big deal at the time. Greece was a financial and economic mess because government spending was far greater tax revenue. It caused financial outlets to devote many, many column inches or many, many broadcast minutes debating what might happen if Greece was tossed from the European Union. 💵💰 💰💵 Solutions were found Greece afloat, and the country so far hasn't tossed from the EU, but its finances remain shaky. The StreetPro columnist Doug Kass hasn't forgotten Grexit. And he's worried the financial condition of the United States is deteriorating into something resembling prompted Kass' thinking came a day after Congress passed President Trump's "beautiful tax bill." The bill would extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts and add tax cuts but doing little to replace lost tax revenue. The event that Kass saw was that the prices of credit default swaps on U.S. government debt (which pay off in event of a default) were nearing the prices now being charged on credit default swaps on Greece's debt. Credit default swaps are basically insurance, and you pay what is basically a premium for the protection. If the debtor defaults on the debt, he pays off the investor. Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management, thinks investors appear blissfully unconcerned with implications of the tax bill. "It appears investors are dancing like 'Zorba the Greek,' while the U.S. spends gluttonously," he wrote. "Zorba the Greek" was Nikos Kazantzakis' 1940s novel and, later, a 1964 film about a Greek working man whose zest for life overshadows all else, often with tragic implications. What shocks Kass: "The bill's debt impact — with a 220% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2055 — reflects the Republican party's ideological shift to the Democratic party's liberal big spending of the past." The underlying assumption being that tax cuts will fuel economic growth and take care of the deficits. Maybe not. The major bond-rating agencies no longer see U.S. debt as AAA rated. Moody's Investors Service downgraded U.S. debt on May 16 to Aaa to did pay attention to the downgrade. It was part of the reason the S&P 500 fell 2.6% this past week. (President Trump also contributed to the decline with new tariff threats and criticism of Apple's () reluctance to move production of iPhones back to the United States. Apple fell 7.6% on the week.) More Economic Analysis: Fed inflation gauge sets up stagflation risks as tariff policies bite U.S. recession risk leaps as GDP shrinks Like it or not, the bond market rules all And the credit default swaps market sees U.S. debt facing more downgrades, maybe down to BBB+, not much above BB-. That's Standard & Poors' minimum rating for an investment-grade bond. To real solution to fixing the problem, Kass thinks, "is cutting expenses, and biting the bullet that way, but neither party seems willing to do that."Today's expanding debt crisis may be similar to 2007, Kass says, when the subprime mortgage crisis was starting to emerge. At the time, Chuck Prince, then CEO of banking giant Citigroup () , famously said. "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." To Doug Kass, it sounds like Zorba the manager sees U.S. becoming Greece first appeared on TheStreet on May 25, 2025 Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Veteran fund manager who predicted the S&P 500 rally updates forecast after Fed, China news
Updated 4:00 pm EST This article has been updated to include statements regarding the May 7 Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold the Fed Funds Rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes have rallied sharply since April 9, when President Trump announced a pause in his newly proposed reciprocal tariffs pending trade deals. The double-digit gains were welcome news to investors, who had been hit hard since February due to fears of a weakening U.S. economy, sticky inflation, job losses, and tariff threats. From its peak in mid-February to its low on April 8, the S&P 500 retreated 19%, nearly entering bear market territory before rebounding. 💵💰Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter 💰💵 The buy-the-dip crowd has certainly been well rewarded, and optimism for trade deals that may significantly lower proposed tariffs remains. However, plenty of macro risks remain, and a sidelined Federal Reserve isn't keen to ride to the rescue if things worsen. The bull versus bear tug-of-war has surprised many, but veteran hedge fund manager Doug Kass isn't among them. Kass, who has managed money professionally for nearly 50 years, including a stint as director of research for Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors, correctly predicted in December that stocks would retreat, and he wisely bought stocks on the early-April collapse before the oversold rally happened. Given Kass's accurate predictions, investors should consider what he's doing with his money now, especially after news that China and the U.S. plan to start trade negotiations soon. The Fed is entrusted with changing the Fed Funds Rate to maintain low unemployment and interest rates, a massive task this year given the weakening jobs market and inflation risks due to the Fed raises rates, it slows inflation by hitting the brakes on economic activity. Unfortunately, that increases unemployment. When it cuts rates, it boosts employment, but fuels inflation. The difficulty setting Fed monetary policy this year isn't lost on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. 'We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension," said Powell in April. You ain't kidding. Unemployment has increased to 4.2% from 3.4% in 2023, and CPI inflation clocked in at 2.4% in March, above the Fed's 2% inflation target, and unchanged from last September. As a result, the Fed finds itself walking a tightrope, forced to the sidelines amid growing uncertainty. It risks adding more gasoline to the inflationary fire if it cuts rates. If it raises rates, it can nip inflation in the bud, but risks more layoffs and an already looming this reason, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced on May 7 that he was keeping the Fed Funds Rate unchanged for the third consecutive month. The Fed also signaled that stagflation is a growing possibility, writing in its statement, "the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen." "Bottom line, that stagflationary risk highlighted by the FOMC is a handcuff-type acknowledgement that freezes them for now," said economist Peter Bookvar in a note to clients. That acknowledgment suggests little help for companies already retrenching amid tariffs that will likely dent demand and profits and households, which are cutting back spending because of inflation risks. That's bad news for GDP growth and the stock market, prompting investors to rethink their outlooks for sales and profit growth and their willingness to pay up to buy arguably already high-valuation stocks. Kass's long Wall Street career means he navigated the inflation scare in the 1970s, the S&L crisis in the late '80s and early '90s, the Internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, the Covid pandemic, and 2022's bear market. His experience during good and bad markets helped him correctly forecast the S&P 500's sell-off and rally this year. Fund manager buys and sells Fund manager who forecast stock drop and pop talks what's next Fund manager sends blunt message on S&P 500 bear market risk Fund manager resets stock market forecast after oversold rally Unfortunately, after correctly buying the April dip, Kass thinks the stock market is running out of steam and will likely head lower. "The markets are increasingly unpredictable and volatile (VIX remains elevated)," wrote Kass on TheStreet Pro. "It's a good time to have below-average invested positions, given value at risk (VAR) and the potential for more 'tape bombs.' It is also a great backdrop for opportunistic traders — but not so great for the buy-and-hold crowd." The Fed's comments at its May meeting didn't do anything to relieve that uncertainty. "The Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates," wrote Kass. "Prepare for a battle royale between the administration (Trump) and the Fed (Powell)." Furthermore, while the potential for trade deals has increased, and negotiations with China are slated to start this weekend, it may not be the catalyst for stocks many hope. Sure, a deal with China would be good news, given that the current 145% tariffs on Chinese imports have effectively shut down trade between the U.S. and China. However, it isn't clear how trade deals will shake out. If the U.S. and China take hardline approaches, it could create significant market volatility. As a result, Kass says he agrees with iconic hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, who recently said that stocks will retreat even if tariffs on China reset significantly lower. After Bessent announced the negotiations, Kass said he "went to work further on the short side." Kass is betting that stocks will roll over now that they've reached resistance, given that some indicators are starting to flash short-term overbought. How low could the S&P 500 go on a retreat? It could undercut its April low. "I see the market moving irregularly lower all summer, with a bona fide threat of new lows (estimated S&P range 4800-5800)," said in to access your portfolio
