Latest news with #EJAntoni
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's pick for BLS commissioner floated suspending the monthly jobs report before apparently backing off
EJ Antoni, President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is no longer considering suspending the monthly jobs report — one of the most crucial and historic measurements of US economic activity — after proposing the unprecedented action during an interview that published Tuesday. Antoni will continue to publish monthly jobs numbers if confirmed, Heritage Foundation economist Stephen Moore told CNN Tuesday. Moore said he discussed the issue with Antoni, who has since backed off the notion. Antoni had previously told Fox News Digital that the monthly jobs report should be suspended in favor of quarterly data, claiming the report is unreliable and frequently revised. In an interview with Fox News Digital that was published Tuesday but took place August 4, a week before his nomination, Antoni said the BLS should publish only quarterly data until BLS can ensure its monthly jobs data is more accurate. 'Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data,' he told Fox. 'Major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these numbers, and a lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences.' Moore, who recommended Antoni for the BLS commissioner role, told CNN's Danny Freeman on Tuesday that the nominee changed his mind. 'I think it's a bad idea to do that. In fact I've talked to EJ about it and he's not going to do that. We need monthly numbers,' Moore said. 'Now what he's talking about is we do a quarterly number that's much more accurate than the monthly one and he's saying maybe — but he's backed off that. We're going to continue to do monthly numbers.' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt earlier on Tuesday acknowledged Antoni's suggestion to suspend the monthly jobs report but said the Trump administration intended on continuing to issue jobs numbers every month. 'I believe that is the plan, and that's the hope, and that these monthly reports will be data that the American people can trust,' Leavitt said at a press briefing Tuesday. Trump fired former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer after the July jobs report showed weak growth that month and included revisions for May and June that were historically large. Trump claimed, without evidence, the revisions constituted a 'scam' and a vendetta against his presidency. Antoni told Fox he disagrees with Trump, saying he doesn't believe the BLS intentionally manipulated the jobs data. But Antoni has criticized the BLS' approach to data collection, noting that revisions to monthly jobs reports have been significantly larger since the pandemic. However, the May and June revisions were not unprecedented. May's jobs total was revised lower to 19,000, down from an initial estimate of 139,000 — a total revision of 120,000 jobs. For the June jobs total, the BLS on Friday said the US economy added just 14,000 jobs, down from a preliminary estimate of 147,000 — a revision of 133,000 jobs. The BLS tracks each month's revisions dating back to 1979, but introduced a new probability-based sample design for revisions in 2003. Between 1979 and 2003, the average monthly revision was 61,000 jobs. Since 2003, the average monthly revision is only a slightly more accurate 51,000 jobs. Monthly jobs data is still useful The BLS gathers troves of data from all corners of the economy and produces scores of reports tracking economic activity over varying timeframes. Especially these days, the economy moves fast, and businesses, investors and policymakers crave immediate but also detailed and trustworthy information. However, while high-frequency data like the monthly jobs report provides a more timely look at employment activity, it also comes with some trade-offs: The initial survey-drawn estimates are not as comprehensive other measurements, such as the BLS' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is compiled from quarterly tax reports submitted by businesses to their states. (But, that particular measurement, while more robust, is heavily lagged: On September 9, the BLS will release county-level QCEW data for the first quarter of 2025). Even so, scrapping the monthly jobs report would leave many flying blind as to how the economy is faring on a monthly basis, said Augustine Faucher, chief economist of The PNC Financial Services Group. 'When we look at the jobs report in context; including the revisions, when we look at the industry mix; when we look at what's going on with average hourly earnings and weekly hours and so forth, all of that is very helpful in gauging where the economy is going,' Faucher told CNN Tuesday in a phone interview. 'I don't think the fact that we've had revisions, and even if the ones we got in July were larger than average, I don't think that's justification for not releasing the data on a monthly basis.' He added: 'The solution there is to improve the data, not to stop releasing it.' Mandated by law William Beach, who served as BLS Commissioner during Trump's first term, said methodology can be studied, analyzed and updated for a data series without suspending reports. During his term, the BLS made 31 of 37 recommended changes to the Consumer Price Index without suspending the heavily watched inflation report, he told CNN in an interview Tuesday. Keeping the jobs report running is even more paramount, he said. 'If you shut [the jobs report] down, you would hear a howl around the world,' Beach said, noting that the BLS' monthly Employment Situation report is one of seven principal federal economic indicators required by law. 'You would have a lot of resistance.' In the absence of a monthly jobs report, the Federal Reserve would be missing data to support one half of its dual mandate (price stability and full employment), which in turn would send shockwaves through financial markets and thoroughly disrupt businesses' abilities to plan. 'I mean, it just goes on and on, right?' he said. 'You can paint a portrait, it not necessarily would be true, but you could paint a portrait of significant economic dislocation just because you didn't have that report.' Why are there revisions? Economic data is frequently revised — especially as more comprehensive information becomes readily available — to provide a clearer, more accurate picture of the dynamics in play. Measuring economic activity, has grown more challenging in recent years, because of the pandemic's seismic impact on global supply chains, US businesses and households and the lingering effects that still continue to this day. To adjust to these economy-shaking shifts, the BLS implemented several methodological changes to help construct its seasonal adjustment models, which smooth out cyclical fluctuations in the economy. Still, one of the most illustrative examples of ongoing revisions is the BLS' labor market data and, specifically, the closely watched jobs report. The numbers in the monthly employment reports (which have a rich history stretching back more than 100 years) will change in the months (and years) to come. Revisiting and refining are just the nature of data collection, statistics and research. 'Revisions are not a bug, they're a feature,' Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, told CNN earlier this year. When the market-moving jobs report (which is composed of two large surveys) is released, that initial estimate is often based on incomplete data and thus will be revised twice further in the two jobs reports that follow, as the BLS receives more information. And in times of economic transitions, revisions are usually more outsized in one way or other, said Beach, the former BLS commissioner. 'We have seen this pattern before of fairly large downward revisions when the economy is slowing, fairly large upward revisions when the economy is growing again,' he said. One part of the substantial downward revisions in May and June are likely due to small businesses responding late to the survey 'because they're just too busy trying to stay alive,' he said. A larger part of the revision was because of seasonal adjustment factors that had to be changed because of a larger-than-typical drop-off in state and local education hiring, he added. 'I didn't see anything that would really alert me that there was an error or mistake,' he said of the critiques made of the BLS' July jobs report tabulations. 'If there was a shortcoming, it was that the BLS didn't immediately put the explanation of what they thought happened on the website.' In addition to the surveying, the BLS also incorporates methodology to try to capture employment activity at new businesses and those that have closed. Even then, the monthly numbers aren't final and fully comprehensive. Every year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts an annual benchmark revision by making a thorough review of the survey-based employment estimates from the monthly jobs report and reconciling those estimates with fuller employment counts measured by the QCEW program. The first part of that process is due out on September 9, when the BLS will publish preliminary benchmark revisions. The final revisions is scheduled to be released in February 2026 alongside the January jobs report. Federal data under siege Federal economic data is considered the 'gold standard,' because of its longstanding reliability, quality, comprehensiveness, history and transparency. However, that critical statistical infrastructure has long been at risk of crumbling. Economists, statisticians and policymakers have sounded the alarm bells for years, stating that federal data is in a precarious state, because of decreased funding, response rates and public trust. Also, measuring economic activity, has grown more challenging in recent years, because of the pandemic's seismic impact on global supply chains, US businesses and households and the lingering effects that still continue to this day. For example, the BLS had to implement several methodological changes to help construct its seasonal adjustment models, which smooth out cyclical fluctuations in the economy. Those warnings have grown even louder this year. Trump, who criticized economic data when not in office, has continued to question the legitimacy of economic metrics during his second term. Additionally, his administration not only has shut down several data-heavy federal programs and websites, but also made funding and employment cuts at statistical agencies. At the BLS, the most clear-cut example has been recent rductions in the price collections that feed into the Consumer Price Index, the most widely used inflation gauge that also is used to adjust Americans' payments (such as Social Security), set wages, and deflate other economic series to adjust for inflation. Those reductions are likely to make the monthly CPI data more volatile and subject to revisions, economists say. 'If you're concerned about the quality of the data, then spend more on data collection efforts to try to improve the response rates for the surveys,' PNC's Faucher said. Beach previously told CNN that surveys, which serve as the backbone for many critical economic databases, 'are dying … and it's not a cold, it's a terminal disease.' Response rates for the monthly jobs survey have tumbled from 60% in January 2020 to under 43% in April 2025. Beach said earlier this year that the poor response rates lead to increased volatility in the data and larger revisions. He suggested that federal statistical agencies, when money is short, could focus on exploring partnerships with universities or other credible research institutions on critical surveys and cutting lesser-used programs. On July 29, a bipartisan group of nearly 90 economists wrote to Congressional chairs, urging them to 'safeguard' the US statistical system by investing in efforts to modernize it. 'Our statistical agencies are outstanding — steadfast and prolific producers of the most consumed and scrutinized economic indicators in the world. The economy is changing rapidly, however,' members of the Economic Innovation Group wrote. 'Without focused and funded efforts to modernize how these essential statistics are collected and produced, the quality and quantity of the system's output are at risk.' They called for Congress to issue flat or increased budget appropriations to statistical agencies. Leavitt said Trump's nomination of Antoni is aimed at improving the data. 'As you know, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has made massive revisions after the last several reports that they have put out, and there has certainly been a decline in the quality and the reliability of data coming from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and there's been an increase in revisions,' Leavitt said. 'And this president and the administration is finally tackling this problem that so many have talked about, and the president is actually doing something about it.' This story has been updated with additional developments and context. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
The Independent
5 hours ago
- Business
- The Independent
Trump's pick to head Bureau of Labor Statistics walks back his earlier plan to scrap monthly jobs reports
President Donald Trump 's pick to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who previously proposed scrapping monthly jobs reports, is now backing off that idea, according to a report. Trump tapped EJ Antoni, the chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, for the role after firing the agency's last commissioner following her release of a poor July jobs report. Antoni proposed suspending the release of the monthly jobs reports in an August 4 Fox Business interview, one week before he was nominated to be the next BLS commissioner. He has since walked back on that proposal, CNN reported. Antoni will continue to issue monthly jobs numbers if confirmed, Heritage Foundation economist Stephen Moore told CNN Tuesday. It's not immediately clear what may have changed his mind. The Independent has reached out to the Heritage Foundation for more information. Moore called Antoni's proposal a 'bad idea' and added the pair discussed the matter. 'He's backed off that,' Moore said. 'We're going to continue to do monthly numbers.' In his Fox Business interview, Antoni slammed the agency for having unreliable data. 'How on earth are businesses supposed to plan – or how is the Fed supposed to conduct monetary policy – when they don't know how many jobs are being added or lost in our economy? It's a serious problem that needs to be fixed immediately," he said. Antoni then suggested releasing data quarterly rather than monthly. "Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data," he continued. Antoni appeared on Fox News days after Trump fired former agency commissioner Erika McEntarfer and criticized the jobs report as inaccurate, which showed the economy added only 73,000 jobs in July. The agency also revised down the reports for May and June, revealing a combined 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. The president fumed about the latest figures, even claiming on CNBC's 'Squawk Box' last week that 'the numbers were rigged.' When announcing the nomination on Monday, Trump said in a Truth Social post that he believes Antoni 'will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE.' Asked on Tuesday if the Bureau of Labor Statistics will continue to issue monthly reports, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said: 'I believe that is the plan, and that's the hope, and that these monthly reports will be data that the American people can trust.'
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's nominee to oversee jobs, inflation data faces shower of criticism
WASHINGTON (AP) — The director of the agency that produces the nation's jobs and inflation data is typically a mild-mannered technocrat, often with extensive experience in statistical agencies, with little public profile. But like so much in President Donald Trump's second administration, this time is different. Trump has selected E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, to be the next commissioner at the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Antoni's nomination was quickly met with a cascade of criticism from other economists, from across the political spectrum. His selection threatens to bring a new level of politicization to what for decades has been a nonpartisan agency widely accepted as a producer of reliable measures of the nation's economic health. While many former Labor Department officials say it it unlikely Antoni will be able to distort or alter the data, particularly in the short run, he could change the currently dry-as-dust way it is presented. Antoni was nominated by Trump after the BLS released a jobs report Aug. 1 that showed that hiring had weakened in July and was much lower in May and June than the agency had previously reported. Trump, without evidence, charged that the data had been 'rigged' for political reasons and fired the then-BLS chair, Erika McEntarfer, much to the dismay of many within the agency. Antoni has been a vocal critic of the government's jobs data in frequent appearances on podcasts and cable TV. His partisan commentary is unusual for someone who may end up leading the BLS. For instance, on Aug. 4 — a week before he was nominated — Antoni said in an interview on Fox News Digital that the Labor Department should stop publishing the monthly jobs reports until its data collection processes improve, and rely on quarterly data based on actual employment filings with state unemployment offices. The monthly employment reports are probably the closest-watched economic data on Wall Street, and can frequently cause swings in stock prices. When asked at Tuesday's White House briefing whether the jobs report would continue to be released, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration hoped it would be. 'I believe that is the plan and that's the hope,' Leavitt said. Leavitt also defended Antoni's nomination, calling him an 'economic expert' who has testified before Congress and adding that, 'the president trusts him to lead this important department.' Yet Antoni's TV and podcast appearances have created more of a portrait of a conservative ideologue, instead of a careful economist who considers tradeoffs and prioritizes getting the math correct. 'There's just nothing in his writing or his resume to suggest that he's qualified for the position, besides that he is always manipulating the data to favor Trump in some way,' said Brian Albrecht, chief economist at the International Center for Law and Economics. Antoni wrongly claimed in the last year of Biden's presidency that the economy had been in recession since 2022; called on the entire Federal Reserve board to be fired for not earning a profit on its Treasury securities holdings; and posted a chart on social media that conflated timelines to suggest inflation was headed to 15%. His argument that the U.S. was in a recession rested on a vastly exaggerated measure of housing inflation, based on newly-purchased home prices, to artificially make the nation's gross domestic product appear smaller than it was. 'This is actually maybe the worst Antoni content I've seen yet,' Alan Cole of the center-right Tax Foundation said on social media, referring to his recession claim. On a 2024 podcast, Antoni wanted to sunset Social Security payments for workers paying into the system, saying that 'you'll need a generation of people who pay Social Security taxes but never actually receive any of those benefits.' As head of the BLS, Antoni would oversee the release of the consumer price index by which Social Security payments are adjusted for inflation. Many economists share, to some degree, Antoni's concerns that the government's jobs data has flaws and is threatened by trends such as declining response rates to its surveys. The drop has made the jobs figures more volatile, though not necessarily less accurate over time. 'The stock market moves clearly based on these job numbers, and so people with skin in the game think it's telling them something about the future of their investments,' Albrecht said. 'Could it be improved? Absolutely.' Katharine Abraham, an economist at the University of Maryland who was BLS Commissioner under President Bill Clinton, said updating the jobs report's methods would require at least some initial investment. The government could use more modern data sources, she said, such as figures from payroll processing companies, and fill in gaps with surveys. 'There's an inconsistency between saying you want higher response rates and you want to spend less money,' she said, referring to the administration's proposals to cut BLS funding. Still, Abraham and other former BLS commissioners don't think Antoni, if confirmed, would be able to alter the figures. He could push for changes in the monthly press release and seek to portray the numbers in a more positive light. William Beach, who was appointed BLS commissioner by Trump in his first term and also served under Biden, said he is confident that BLS procedures are strong enough to prevent political meddling. He said he didn't see the figures himself until two days before publication when he served as commissioner. 'The commissioner does not affect the numbers,'' Beach said. 'They don't collect the data. They don't massage the data. They don't organize it." Regarding the odds of rigging the numbers, Beach said, 'I wouldn't put it at complete zero, but I'd put it pretty close to zero.'' It took about six months after McEntarfer was nominated in July 2023 for her to be approved. Antoni will likely face stiff opposition from Democrats, but that may not be enough to derail his appointment. Sen. Patty Murray, a senior Democrat from Washington, on Tuesday slammed Antoni as 'an unqualified right-wing extremist' and demanded that the GOP chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, hold a confirmation hearing for him. ___ Associated Press Staff Writers Paul Wiseman and Stephen Groves contributed to this story. Christopher Rugaber And Josh Boak, The Associated Press
Wall Street Journal
6 hours ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
All E.J. Antoni's Labor Statistics
President Trump did himself no favors by firing the Bureau of Labor Statistics head because he didn't like last month's jobs report. He also did no favors for his nominated BLS replacement, Heritage Foundation chief economist E.J. Antoni, who will now have to overcome public skepticism to show the data can be trusted. Stipulate first that the BLS data has become increasingly volatile in recent years. Last month's jobs report revised down gains by 258,000 for May and June. This suggested that growth stalled this spring. Mr. Trump then claimed without evidence that the numbers were 'RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.'
Washington Post
6 hours ago
- Business
- Washington Post
Trump's nominee to oversee jobs, inflation data faces shower of criticism
WASHINGTON — The director of the agency that produces the nation's jobs and inflation data is typically a mild-mannered technocrat, often with extensive experience in statistical agencies, with little public profile. But like so much in President Donald Trump's second administration, this time is different. Trump has selected E.J. Antoni , chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation , to be the next commissioner at the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Antoni's nomination was quickly met with a cascade of criticism from other economists, from across the political spectrum. His selection threatens to bring a new level of politicization to what for decades has been a nonpartisan agency widely accepted as a producer of reliable measures of the nation's economic health. While many former Labor Department officials say it it unlikely Antoni will be able to distort or alter the data, particularly in the short run, he could change the currently dry-as-dust way it is presented. Antoni was nominated by Trump after the BLS released a jobs report Aug. 1 that showed that hiring had weakened in July and was much lower in May and June than the agency had previously reported. Trump, without evidence, charged that the data had been 'rigged' for political reasons and fired the then-BLS chair , Erika McEntarfer , much to the dismay of many within the agency. Antoni has been a vocal critic of the government's jobs data in frequent appearances on podcasts and cable TV. His partisan commentary is unusual for someone who may end up leading the BLS. For instance, on Aug. 4 — a week before he was nominated — Antoni said in an interview on Fox News Digital that the Labor Department should stop publishing the monthly jobs reports until its data collection processes improve, and rely on quarterly data based on actual employment filings with state unemployment offices. The monthly employment reports are probably the closest-watched economic data on Wall Street, and can frequently cause swings in stock prices. When asked at Tuesday's White House briefing whether the jobs report would continue to be released, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration hoped it would be. 'I believe that is the plan and that's the hope,' Leavitt said. Leavitt also defended Antoni's nomination, calling him an 'economic expert' who has testified before Congress and adding that, 'the president trusts him to lead this important department.' Yet Antoni's TV and podcast appearances have created more of a portrait of a conservative ideologue, instead of a careful economist who considers tradeoffs and prioritizes getting the math correct. 'There's just nothing in his writing or his resume to suggest that he's qualified for the position, besides that he is always manipulating the data to favor Trump in some way,' said Brian Albrecht, chief economist at the International Center for Law and Economics. Antoni wrongly claimed in the last year of Biden's presidency that the economy had been in recession since 2022; called on the entire Federal Reserve board to be fired for not earning a profit on its Treasury securities holdings; and posted a chart on social media that conflated timelines to suggest inflation was headed to 15%. His argument that the U.S. was in a recession rested on a vastly exaggerated measure of housing inflation, based on newly-purchased home prices, to artificially make the nation's gross domestic product appear smaller than it was. 'This is actually maybe the worst Antoni content I've seen yet,' Alan Cole of the center-right Tax Foundation said on social media, referring to his recession claim. On a 2024 podcast, Antoni wanted to sunset Social Security payments for workers paying into the system, saying that 'you'll need a generation of people who pay Social Security taxes but never actually receive any of those benefits.' As head of the BLS, Antoni would oversee the release of the consumer price index by which Social Security payments are adjusted for inflation. Many economists share, to some degree, Antoni's concerns that the government's jobs data has flaws and is threatened by trends such as declining response rates to its surveys. The drop has made the jobs figures more volatile, though not necessarily less accurate over time. 'The stock market moves clearly based on these job numbers, and so people with skin in the game think it's telling them something about the future of their investments,' Albrecht said. 'Could it be improved? Absolutely.' Katharine Abraham, an economist at the University of Maryland who was BLS Commissioner under President Bill Clinton, said updating the jobs report's methods would require at least some initial investment. The government could use more modern data sources, she said, such as figures from payroll processing companies, and fill in gaps with surveys. 'There's an inconsistency between saying you want higher response rates and you want to spend less money,' she said, referring to the administration's proposals to cut BLS funding. Still, Abraham and other former BLS commissioners don't think Antoni, if confirmed, would be able to alter the figures. He could push for changes in the monthly press release and seek to portray the numbers in a more positive light. William Beach, who was appointed BLS commissioner by Trump in his first term and also served under Biden, said he is confident that BLS procedures are strong enough to prevent political meddling. He said he didn't see the figures himself until two days before publication when he served as commissioner. 'The commissioner does not affect the numbers,'' Beach said. 'They don't collect the data. They don't massage the data. They don't organize it.' Regarding the odds of rigging the numbers, Beach said, 'I wouldn't put it at complete zero, but I'd put it pretty close to zero.'' It took about six months after McEntarfer was nominated in July 2023 for her to be approved. Antoni will likely face stiff opposition from Democrats, but that may not be enough to derail his appointment. Sen. Patty Murray, a senior Democrat from Washington, on Tuesday slammed Antoni as 'an unqualified right-wing extremist' and demanded that the GOP chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, hold a confirmation hearing for him. ___ Associated Press Staff Writers Paul Wiseman and Stephen Groves contributed to this story.
