Latest news with #EM
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold prices may fall 12-15% in next 2 months, warns Quant Mutual Fund
Quant Mutual Fund warns investors that gold has peaked out and has the potential to correct by 12-15 per cent in dollar terms over the next two months. 'However, our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals,' it added. June is seasonally a bullish month for crude oil and downside is already exhausted, but upside could be meaningful if EM risk-off phase magnifies; a 10-12 per cent move higher will not surprise us, the monthly release said. It further read that with current global uncertainties, Bitcoin would be an ideal investment for high-risk appetite global investors but relative tightening of the global liquidity conditions will affect the crypto currencies in the short term. 'The medium-term and long-term outlook, however, remain constructive for crypto. High-risk appetite from youngsters is essential for sustained rallies in crypto and particularly across all digital assets,' it added. Although the DXY index has corrected quite meaningfully since January highs, it seems to be bottoming out at around current levels and a pullback rally is on the cards. Sharing the outlook of global equities, the fund house said that although the near-term pullback thesis has played out quite well, the medium-term trend is still weak and the next few months will be quite challenging for global equity and US equity in particular. 'Global equity is in a consolidation phase and not in bear market territory as perceived by disheartened investors. For a deep bear market hypothesis, we require tighter global liquidity and currently, global liquidity remains quite strong.' The cash levels have been deployed in select mid and small caps in most schemes, Quant Mutual Fund mentioned in its monthly release. The fund house added that the portfolio remains tilted towards large caps, and overall liquidity of the portfolio is good. The fund house also mentioned that select buying opportunities are visible in certain sectors such as PSU, Infrastructure, Hotels & Hospitality, Pharmaceuticals, Materials, Retail and Telecom. 'As we had been calling out repeatedly over the past few months, our 'Predictive Analytics' models were showing that the corrective phase in Indian equity was close to completion. We reiterate that select buying opportunities are visible in certain sectors, viz. PSU, Infrastructure, Hotels & Hospitality, Pharmaceuticals, Materials, Retail and Telecom,' Quant MF said in its release. It further recommended that, 'Investors worldwide, and in India, should aim to have a healthy mix of assets in their portfolio.' The predictive analysis of the fund house endorses the risk-on for India and risk-off for the US both on absolute and relative basis and global liquidity metrics have started deteriorating and the risk-off phase for the US will continue while liquidity is rising. 'The DM economy is already in recession, but it is now certain that EMs will outperform DMs in the medium-term,' it added. Quant Mutual Fund mentioned that with the right policy support, India stands a good chance of benefiting from global supply chain shifts in the medium-term, driven by higher US tariffs on Chinese goods, likely progress on a US-India trade deal and favourable domestic conditions and India has a large domestic market (as large as China's in 2006-07), which could be key to rapid manufacturing growth in years ahead. According to the release, Quant Mutual Fund is seeing a complete breakdown in the traditional relationships between various asset classes viz. Gold, currencies, yields, and real interest rates, the relevance of global central banks and policy makers is declining, as they are unable to manage rising debt and inflation, despite the rising depth and breadth of the global capital markets. The fund house further informed its investor base of nearly 95 lacs folios that the fund house was the first recipient of SEBI license for the Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) – the Long-Short fund in equity, debt and hybrid categories and this product category is suitable for sophisticated investors who are well-versed with financial markets and possess a relatively high-risk appetite and seeking more evolved investment strategies. 'Going forward, we will be unveiling a separate brand identity, separate website and communication portal specifically for SIFs. Over the coming weeks and months, we will dedicate our efforts towards educating the target audience about these products,' the fund house further hinted.
India Gazette
26-05-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
India among top picks as JP Morgan turns bullish on emerging markets
New Delhi [India] May 26 (ANI): American investment banking firm JP Morgan has turned bullish on emerging market (EM) equities and includes India among its top picks along with Philippines, Brazil, Chile, Greece, Poland, and UAE. 'We upgraded our EM vs DM stance from underweight (UW) to Neutral, and we now move it further up, to overweight (OW)', said the JP Morgan report says emerging markets had four years of weak performance versus the developed markets (DM), lagging cumulatively by 40 per cent since 2021. 'Within EM, our EM strategy team continues to prefer markets with higher domestic exposures (India, Philippines, Brazil, Greece, Poland, and UAE) and strong bottom-up idiosyncratic catalysts (Chile and Korea),' added the report added, this year EMs have traded better than DMs. 'So far this year, EM are trading somewhat better, up mid-single digit vs DM, and up 2% relative ytd ex China. We upgraded EM to Neutral versus DM in March, and now take a step further, upgrading EM to outright OW versus DM,' said the EM, Chinese equities were the worst hit during the post-Liberation Day, and were down 13 per cent in less than a week. Chinese equities, however, recovered most of the losses post its 90-day temporary trade deal with the US. The US lowered tariffs on imports from China to 30 per cent from 145 per cent, while China reduced tariffs on US goods to 10 per cent from 125 per cent, for a duration of 90 days. But JP Morgan believes that 90 days is not enough to negotiate the trade deal between the US and China, and post 90 days if the US adopts aggressive stance EM equities will trade better. 'We recognize that 90 days may not be enough for the China and China to deliver a trade agreement, and the tariffs noise is unlikely to go away, but we do not expect the US to again adopt an aggressive trade stance towards China, which could allow EM equities to trade better.' said the report. On sectoral performances, the report said historically, the Mining sector performs well during periods when EM outperformed DM. The mining sector could find additional support from potential EM equity outperformance.'We reiterate our double upgrade of Mining sector that we did in March, after years of cautious stance.' said the report. (ANI)
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wells Fargo says to buy U.S. stocks, avoid EMs
-- Wells Fargo told investors in a note Tuesday that it sees an opportune moment to cut exposure to emerging markets equities following recent outperformance, calling it 'an attractive opportunity' if investors are overallocated to the asset class. Despite a strong start to the year for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which gained 6.9% year to date compared to a 3.3% decline in the S&P 500 Index, Wells Fargo remains unconvinced. 'We are skeptical,' analysts wrote. 'The long-term EM equity track record has been uninspiring. EM earnings have barely budged since 2007, and index levels remain roughly 15% below their pre-global financial crisis highs.' The firm points to structural issues in emerging markets, including 'political and economic instability, corporate governance concerns, variable regulatory risks, as well as China's excessive debt, slumping property sector, and slowing growth.' While Wells Fargo acknowledges the rally was driven by 'modestly better-than-expected EM economic data prints, signs of bottoming consensus earnings expectations, China stimulus measures, and a broadly weaker U.S. dollar,' it warns that 'the EM sentiment pendulum has swung too far positive.' Trade tensions are another concern. 'In our view, trade frictions only add to the headwinds these markets will face,' the note said. Wells Fargo favors developed markets, noting that 'DM have the benefit of a more stable and predictable regulatory environment, while recent news of increased fiscal spending in Europe is likely to remain a tailwind to investor opinion and returns.' 'We favor reallocating to U.S. Large Cap, U.S. Mid Cap, or Developed Market (DM) ex-U.S. Equities to maintain overall equity exposure,' said Wells Fargo. For risk reduction, 'investors could look to Commodities or select fixed-income investments to reduce equity allocations.' Related articles Wells Fargo says to buy U.S. stocks, avoid EMs Morgan Stanley sees 'more risk than reward' for Asana, downgrades stock to sell 'Best of both worlds:' Wells Fargo starts SAP coverage at Buy
CNBC
19-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
JPMorgan upgrades emerging markets. How to play the improved outlook
Emerging market stocks couldn't catch a break the past four years. Now their fortunes may be turning. JPMorgan upgraded emerging markets to overweight from neutral on Monday. Strategist Mislav Matejka cited several reasons for the change, including easing trade tensions and attractive valuations. "De-escalation on U.S.-China trade front reduces one significant headwind for EM equities," Matejka wrote. "Big picture, the [year-to-date] increase in tariffs is still extremely large in a long term context. … We remain concerned about the impact of tariffs on medium term growth in U.S. and elsewhere; however, last week's news is clearly positive, especially for China." China and the U.S. agreed last week to temporarily lower tariffs as part of an attempt to negotiate a broader trade agreement. The news sent the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) higher by 3% last week — its fifth weekly advance in six. The strategist also noted that emerging markets are trading at 12 times forward earnings "and at a bigger than typical discount to" developed markets. The EEM exchange-trade fund is up 10.6% so far in 2025, outperforming the S & P 500's meager 1.3% advance. That's also better than the European Stoxx 600's 7.6% gain. EEM's 2025 advance puts it on pace for its best year since 2020, when it rose 15.2%. This performance also marks a stark contrast from the previous four years, when the EEM lagged both the U.S. and Europe. Check out how the fund — along with the S & P 500 and Stoxx 600 — did between 2021 and 2024: Declines during that time for emerging markets were led in part by China, as the country's economy struggled to recover following strict Covid-related lockdowns. EEM also suffered after President Donald Trump last month announced steep tariffs on dozens of countries. The fund has since recovered, however. Matejka highlighted India and Brazil as potentially notable EM winners. The iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) is up nearly 4% year to date. EWZ , its Brazilian counterpart, has soared 24%.
North Wales Live
06-05-2025
- Entertainment
- North Wales Live
Gousto launches new range inspired by London's street food markets
Recipe box company Gousto has launched Foodtopia, inspired by the flavours of London's street food markets. Each week, customers can explore eight changing dishes across four themed 'market stalls' - 'Load 'Em Up, 'Hot Grill Summer', 'The Big Cheese' and 'Feel The Fusion. Sophie Nahmad, Lead Recipe Developer at Gousto, said: 'We wanted to bottle that electric street food buzz – the smells, the sizzle, the mix of cultures and ideas – and bring it to life in a way that's fun, doable and full of flavour. 't's not just about what's on the plate – it's about the experience. Foodtopia lets you try something new, push your tastebuds, and have a bit of fun in the kitchen.' What's on the menu: LOAD 'EM UP Fries loaded with toppings like chicken tikka tenders, sticky BBQ sauce or spicy masala, and finished with extras. HOT GRILL SUMMER From Korean smash burgers to garlic bread hot dogs and shawarma-stuffed pittas. THE BIG CHEESE Bloody Mary mac 'n' cheese, kimchi toasties, and melt-filled dishes. FEEL THE FUSION Dishes like Thai red curry tacos and jerk-glazed pork belly baos. Many dishes also come with street food-style sides and optional extras – like crispy halloumi fries with dipping sauces. to order now until May 26.
