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Budapest Times
31-07-2025
- Business
- Budapest Times
Trade balance deteriorates in June
The surplus was EUR 978 million, the balance decreased by EUR 145 million, year-on-year. The volume of export worsened by 0.7% compared to the same period of the previous year, that of import increased by 6.0%. The seasonally and working-day adjusted export volume decreased by 1.4% compared to 2025. May, while that of import improved by 1.6%. In June 2025 the value of export amounted to EUR 12.3 billion (HUF 4,935 billion), that of import was EUR 11.3 billion (HUF 4,541 billion). In June 2025 compared to a year earlier the value of export increased by 0.1% and that of import improved by 1.4% in EUR terms. According to calendar-adjusted data, the volume of export decreased by 0.7%, that of import increased by 5.9%. The HUF price level of the external trade in goods increased by 2.7% in export and decreased by 2.5% in import, compared to the same month of the previous year. The terms of trade improved by 5.3%. The HUF exchange rate depreciated by 1.9% against the EUR and improved by 4.8% against the US dollar. The export volume of machinery and transport equipment decreased by 1.2%, its import volume improved by 6.8%. The aggregate commodity group of machinery and transport equipment hastened the volume decrease in total turnover by 0.7 percentage points on the export side, and contributed to the total volume increase by 3.2 percentage points in imports. The export volume of manufactured goods decreased by 3.8%, while their import volume improved by 3.8%. The aggregate commodity group of manufactured goods contributed to the volume decrease in total export by 1.1 percentage points and contributed to the total volume growth by 1.4 percentage points in import. The export volume of fuels and electric energy increased by 46%, their import volume was 18% higher than one year earlier. The growth in the turnover of fuels and electric energy counteracted the volume decrease in total turnover by 1.6 percentage points in export and hastened the volume increase in total turnover by 1.5 percentage points in imports. The export volume of food, beverages and tobacco lessened by 4.4%, their import volume increased by 1.5%. The volume change realised by the aggregate commodity group hastened the export volume decrease by 0.3 percentage points and contributed to the total turnover volume increase in import by 0.1 percentage points. The volume of export to the EU-27 member states decreased by 2.9%, the import from there increased by 2.2%. Compared to June 2024 the balance of the external trade in goods decreased all in all by EUR 109 million, generating a surplus of EUR 1.2 billion. This group of countries accounted for 75% of exports and 71% of imports. In the extra-EU-27 trade the volume of export increased by 7.1%, that of import improved by 8.8%. The balance of the external trade in goods with these countries worsened by EUR 36 million, showing a deficit of EUR 179 million. In January–June 2025 compared to one year earlier the volume of export increased by 0.7%, that of import grew by 3.7%. The balance of the external trade in goods decreased by EUR 957 million, the surplus was EUR 6.8 billion. The HUF price level of the external trade in goods increased by 4.5% on the export side, and by 3.2% on the import one, compared to the same period of the previous year. The terms of trade improved by 1.3%. The HUF depreciated against the EUR by 3.8% and by 2.9% against the US dollar.
Irish Examiner
27-07-2025
- Business
- Irish Examiner
Jim Power: Budget countdown begins with big promises
The publication of the summer economic statement has set the budgetary process in motion, and the destination will be reached in early October. The two relevant ministers have outlined a budget package of €9.4bn, with a net tax package of €1.5bn, and an expenditure package of €7.9bn. This expenditure package will be comprised of current expenditure increases of €5.9bn or almost 75% of the total; and capital spending of €2bn or just over 25% of the total. Proposed Vat cut On the tax side, the Government has given a commitment to reduce the Vat rate for part of the hospitality sector — the food element — to 9% and this would cost around €580m in foregone taxes. If this is delivered and applies from January 1 next, it means that effectively less than €1bn would be available for personal tax changes. To put this in context, it is estimated that a 1% indexation of the employee tax credit would cost around €230m in a full year, so to index for projected inflation in 2026 would cost somewhere in the region of €460m; or a 1% decrease in the 40% tax rate would cost around €540m. If the government delivers the Vat cut from the beginning of 2026, which it has committed to, the tax package will be small. So not surprisingly, there are suggestions that the cut might be delayed until July, thereby significantly reducing the cost in 2026. If this transpires, the hospitality sector would have every right to be aggrieved. Restaurants and food businesses are the most crucial element of our tourism product, and many businesses are struggling to stay afloat. Inflation Data released by the CSO last week show that in 2024, Irish food prices are the third highest in the EU-27 and are 12% above the EU average. In the year to May, agricultural output prices increased by 20.7%, with cattle prices up by 48%. These prices obviously feed into restaurant input costs, but the pressures are compounded by labour costs, insurance, water charges, commercial rates etc. I am a supporter of the reduced Vat rate, and I think it is now more appropriate to provide some limited support to a key employer of people all over the country, and a vital part of the tourism offering, rather than to pump money through excessive expenditure into an economy that is still doing quite well. Does the Irish economic cycle need a continuation of out-of-control current expenditure now? I think not. Even if the Vat cut is pushed out, the extent of the easing of the personal tax burden will be miniscule. We should have learned from the past We should have learned our lessons from the pro-cyclical policies of the past. The summer economic statement projects planned expenditure of €108.7bn this year, which is €3.3bn higher than planned in Budget 2025, and it is likely to turn out even higher than this latest projection. Not surprisingly, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council is not happy and has justifiably accused the Government of 'poor planning and budgeting.' Obviously, the ability of the two ministers to deliver the proposed budgetary package, and indeed to deliver the ambitious, but detail lacking, revised National Development Plan, will be heavily contingent on the future performance of the economy, and especially the actions of Donald Trump. Downward creep in projections There is not a lot of detail in relation to economic assumptions in the summer economic statement, but it is interesting to note that for 2025 the Department of Finance is projecting growth of 2% in modified domestic demand (MDD), down from 2.5% in April, and 2.9% in Budget 2025 last October. For 2026, MDD is projected to grow by 1.8%, down from 2.8% in April, and 3% in Budget 2025. There is downward creep occurring in Ireland's economic projections, which seems logical in the context of Trump-induced uncertainty. In relation to the National Development Plan, it is quite amazing that we must await detail on the projected spend until close to budget time. What in the name of God has been happening since January? The aspirations outlined in the revised plan — such as energy, water, housing, transport infrastructure, and climate change — are difficult to argue with, but delivery on time and on budget will be essential. One hopes there will be greater control, transparency and accountability in relation to National Development Plan delivery than we have seen with major infrastructure projects such as the children's hospital and the infamous bicycle shed.
Budapest Times
02-07-2025
- Business
- Budapest Times
Export balance deteriorates
The surplus of the external trade in goods was EUR 739 million in May, the balance deteriorated by EUR 281 million, year-on-year; compared to the same period of the previous year, the export volume grew by 3.2%, that of import by 5.4%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the export volume grew by 3.2%, that of import by 5.4%, while the seasonally and working day adjusted export volume lagged behind the April 2025 level by 0.6%, that of import surpassed it by 2.0%. In May 2025 the value of export amounted to EUR 12.2 billion (HUF 4,927 billion), that of import was EUR 11.5 billion (HUF 4,629 billion). In May 2025 compared to a year earlier the value of export increased by 2.0% and that of import by 4.8% in EUR terms. According to calendar-adjusted data, the volume of export increased by 3.2%, that of import by 5.4%. The balance of the external trade in goods lessened by EUR 281 million. The HUF price level of the external trade in goods increased by 3.1% in export and by 3.7% in import, compared to the same month of the previous year. The terms of trade deteriorated by 0.5%. The HUF exchange rate depreciated by 4.3% against the EUR and improved by 0.1% against the US dollar. The export volume of machinery and transport equipment increased by 6.4%, its import volume by 5.0%. The aggregate commodity group of machinery and transport equipment hastened the volume increase in total turnover by 3.5 percentage points on the export side, and by 2.3 percentage points on the import one. The export volume of manufactured goods decreased by 4.8%, their import volume improved by 3.5%. The aggregate commodity group of manufactured goods slowed the volume increase in total export by 1.5 percentage points and contributed to the growth by 1.3 percentage points in import. The export volume of fuels and electric energy increased by 89%, their import volume by 28%, year-on-year . The growth in the turnover of fuels and electric energy contributed to the volume increase in total turnover by 2.4 percentage points in export and by 2.2 percentage points in imports. The export volume of food, beverages and tobacco lessened by 9.2%, their import volume by 2.6%. The volume change realised by the aggregate commodity group slowed down the total turnover volume increase by 0.8 percentage points on the export side and by 0.2 percentage points on the import one. The volume of export to the EU-27 member states increased by 2.0%, the import from there by 3.7%. Compared to May 2024 the balance of the external trade in goods decreased by EUR 99 million, generating a surplus of EUR 1.0 billion. This group of countries accounted for 75% of exports and 71% of imports. In the extra-EU-27 trade the volume of export increased by 6.2%, that of import grew by 10%. The balance of the external trade in goods with these countries worsened by EUR 182 million, showing a deficit of EUR 279 million. In January–May 2025 compared to one year earlier the volume of export increased by 1.0%, that of import grew by 2.7%. The balance of the external trade in goods decreased by EUR 586 million, the surplus was EUR 6.1 billion. The HUF price level of the external trade in goods increased by 4.8% on the export side, and by 4.4% on the import one, compared to the same period of the previous year. The terms of trade improved by 0.4%. The HUF depreciated against the EUR by 4.2% and by 4.5% against the US dollar.
Budapest Times
30-05-2025
- Business
- Budapest Times
Mixed trends in trade as exports slip and imports gain
The volume of export decreased by 2.3%, while that of import lessened by 0.1% in April 2025, compared to the same period of the previous year. The surplus was EUR 1.4 billion, the balance lessened by EUR 354 million, year-on-year. The adjusted volume of export improved by 3.4% compared to March 2025, that of import increased by 1.1%. In April 2025 the value of export amounted to EUR 12.3 billion (HUF 5,021 billion), that of import was EUR 11.0 billion (HUF 4,460 billion). In April 2025 compared to a year earlier the value of export decreased by 1.5% and that of import improved by the same rate in EUR terms. According to calendar-adjusted data, the volume of export increased by 0.4%, that of import by 2.1%. The balance of the external trade in goods decreased by EUR 354 million. The HUF price level of the external trade in goods increased by 4.4% in export and by 5.2% in import, compared to the same month of the previous year. The terms of trade worsened by 0.8%. The HUF exchange rate depreciated by 3.6% against the EUR and strengthened by 0.9% against the US dollar. The export volume of machinery and transport equipment increased by 0.5%, its import volume by 0.9%. The aggregate commodity group counterbalanced the volume decrease in total turnover by 0.3 percentage points on the export side, and by 0.4 percentage points on the import one. The export volume of manufactured goods decreased by 7.5%, their import volume lessened by 7.4%. The aggregate commodity group deepened the total turnover's volume decrease in export by 2.3 percentage points and by 2.9 percentage points in import. The export volume of fuels and electric energy increased by 39%, their import volume was 43% higher than one year earlier. The growth in the turnover of fuels and electric energy counterbalanced the volume decrease in total turnover by 1.1 percentage points in export and by 2.6 percentage points in import. The export volume of food, beverages and tobacco lessened by 13%, their import volume decreased by 2.0%. The volume change realised by the aggregate commodity group hastened the export volume decrease by 1.0 percentage point, and moved the turnover in a negative direction on the import one by 0.1 percentage points. The volume of export to the EU-27 member states decreased by 3.5%, the import from there by 6.3%. The balance of the external trade in goods improved by EUR 29 million, generating a surplus of EUR 1.4 billion. This group of countries accounted for 74% of exports and 71% of imports. In the extra-EU-27 trade the volume of export increased by 2.8%, that of import improved by 16%. The balance of the external trade in goods with these countries worsened by EUR 383 million, showing a deficit of EUR 41 million. In January–April 2025 the value of exports amounted to EUR 50.0 billion (HUF 20,257 billion), that of imports to EUR 44.6 billion (HUF 18,090 billion). In January–April 2025 compared to one year earlier the volume of export increased by 0.5%, that of import grew by 1.9%. The balance of the external trade in goods decreased by EUR 267 million, the surplus was EUR 5.4 billion. The HUF price level of the external trade in goods increased by 5.4% on the export side, and by 4.8% on the import one, compared to the same period of the previous year. The terms of trade improved by 0.6%. The HUF depreciated against the EUR by 4.2% and by 5.6% against the US dollar.
Business Times
26-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Macron's Asean trip showcases EU's Asia pivot
US PRESIDENTS since at least Bill Clinton have sought to re-orientate US foreign policy towards Asia. And more recently, Europe has sought to emulate this 'pivot' to the world's fastest-growing economic region, as showcased this week by French President Emmanuel Macron's big trip to three Asean nations. Macron's visit to Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore, which follows previous trips to the region by other European leaders including Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in April, comes as the 27-member EU is under the threat of 50 per cent tariffs from the US President Donald Trump – now in abeyance following a weekend call between the American leader and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen. In any case, Europe is looking to bolster commercial ties in Asia, including diversifying supply chains. The Asia and wider Pacific region is home to around three-fifths of the world's population. It accounts for some 60 per cent of global gross domestic product, about two-thirds of global growth, around 40 per cent of the European Union's total imports and, together with the EU-27, drives some 70 per cent of global trade too. The big Macron trip began on Sunday (May 25) in Vietnam, the first visit by a French president there in about a decade. He wants to grow the existing 5.3 billion euro (S$7.7 billion) trade relationship with Vietnam, including in areas such as energy, technology and infrastructure, with Hanoi an increasingly important trade partner of Paris. Numerous business agreements have been signed on Sunday and Monday, including a power grid deal between the French Development Agency and Vietnam's National Power Transmission Corporation. In Indonesia from Tuesday, Macron will meet with both Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Asean Secretary General Kao Kim Hourn. The French president's pitch to these two leaders is that France and Europe are defenders of the international rules-based order, in contrast to the Trump team's approach in Washington. Macron then moves onto Singapore, where his agenda includes speaking at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's top defence conference. Reportedly, he will argue that Russia is destabilising Asia by 'making North Korean soldiers fight on European soil against Ukrainians and by supporting North Korea's ballistic and nuclear programmes'. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Macron's visit is only the latest European overture to Asia in recent weeks. The entire European Commission, including President von der Leyen, visited New Delhi recently to kick-start trade talks with India. In July, the EU will also hold its latest annual summit with China in Beijing. The overall goal is to strengthen the partnership between the two regions based on mutual respect and equality, with respect to security, trade, global value chains, digitalisation, the green transition and energy security. The EU's underlying goal of engagement is to build a competitive advantage vis-a-vis other world powers. In von der Leyen's first term as European Commission president, the Brussels-based club agreed on a new Asia-Pacific strategy to reinforce its strategic focus, presence and actions in this region of prime strategic importance. The aim is to bolster regional stability, security, prosperity and sustainable development, at a time of rising challenges and tensions in the region, in a bid to uphold democracy, human rights, the rule of law and respect for international law. The EU's approach and engagement have multiple goals. As Macron is emphasising this week, this includes seeking to foster a rules-based world order, an international level playing field, an open and fair environment for trade and investment, reciprocity, the strengthening of resilience, tackling climate change and supporting connectivity with Europe. On the latter point, one reason that the EU is so keen to engage the Asia-Pacific more deeply is that it is at the cutting edge of digitalisation and technology. The EU has announced its intent to launch a regional branch for the Asia-Pacific region within the Digital for Development Hub with a view to fostering digital cooperation to support sustainable, inclusive digital transformation, plus new digital partnerships based on shared values and a common approach to a human-centric digital transformation Outside of economics, free and open maritime supply routes in full compliance with international law are key, too. Europe is working increasingly closely with key partners in the Asia-Pacific on security and defence, including malicious cyber activities, terrorism, and organised crime. Moreover, the EU has announced the extension of the concept of a coordinated maritime presence in the North-West Indian Ocean. This will allow the EU to further support stability and security in the Asia-Pacific, to optimise naval deployments, to promote coherence of European action and to facilitate the exchange of information and cooperation with partners in the region, including by conducting joint maritime exercises and port calls. Furthermore, the EU reaffirmed its determination to enhance its engagement in security and defence with partners in the region, for example, through strengthening its dialogues and bilateral relationships. Beyond trips of individual leaders such as Macron, European intent towards the Asia-Pacific is manifest in the wider, growing number of EU annual conferences with key emerging market giants such as India, plus major industrialised nations including Japan. This is also already allowing the EU to make headway in the massive region. One example is India, which forms the world's two largest democracies with the EU-27 as a whole, with both keen to forge stronger ties. The Brussels-based club is already India's largest single trade and investment partner, hence why the new proposed bilateral trade deal under discussion is a key potential prize for both parties. There are wider reasons behind converging interests, including a growing need to develop shared defence forums to discuss issues such as maritime security in the Indian Ocean, where two-fifths of bilateral trade passes. Yet, important as Europe's relations are with emerging markets, industrialised nations are important too. With Japan, for instance, the EU enjoys a growing agenda – for instance, the two powers have stepped up their leadership on international trade and the rules-based economic order. Japan is one of Europe's top export markets in the Asia-Pacific region. This agenda was given a fillip in 2019, when the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement entered into force, covering around a third of global GDP and almost 650 million people. The accord took years to agree, and made headlines due to the scrapping of almost all duties on Japanese and European imports, respectively. These examples showcase why Macron, von der Leyen and other key European leaders see such a big opportunity in Asia. The massive region is a growing priority for the EU as it tries to steal a march on others – not least the United States – to try and drive economic and political advantage in the next decade and beyond. The writer is an associate at LSE Ideas at the London School of Economics
