Latest news with #EllieGeranmayeh
Boston Globe
25-07-2025
- Politics
- Boston Globe
Iran starts new talks today over its nuclear program. Here's what to know.
If Iran resists, the Europeans say that they will initiate a procedure to restore severe United Nations and multilateral sanctions on Iran that were suspended under a landmark 2015 nuclear deal because Iran has been violating its terms. Advertisement The agreement, in which Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, expires in mid-October. The Europeans are willing to extend the deadline on restoring the sanctions because once they are restored, they are useless as leverage. What's at stake Little is expected to emerge from Friday's meeting, which is at a lower level and will not include foreign ministers. But some deadlines are looming. The Europeans have said that they will move to restore sanctions by the end of August if Iran does not respond with a serious effort at a new deal. Iran, Europe and the United States all have some leverage in renewed negotiations. The main sticking point, as it has been for many months, is the American insistence that Iran give up enrichment of uranium altogether and Iran's refusal to do so. Though damaged, Iran's nuclear program is hardly destroyed, and it has gained plenty of knowledge about nuclear enrichment that cannot be bombed away. Advertisement Without progress in negotiations to extend the deadline on restoring sanctions, any U.N. restrictions could vanish for decades thanks to the difficulty of achieving unanimity in a Security Council where Russia and China both hold vetoes, said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations. Even an extension would require all the members of the Security Council to agree, including the United States, which may be a hard sell given the deep distrust of Iran in the Trump administration. Geranmayeh has recommended a one-time, one-year extension, to allow 'breathing time for talks with Washington' and for the International Atomic Energy Agency, the nuclear watchdog of the United Nations, to gauge the state of Iran's nuclear program and stockpile of enriched uranium. Where Iran is now This week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of Iran said that the damage to the country's nuclear facilities had been 'serious and severe' and that enrichment had now been stopped, but he vowed, as he has before, that Iran would not give up the right to enrich uranium. The Europeans are trying to use the threat of these 'snapback' sanctions to get Iran to restore cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog and to negotiate a new deal to limit or eliminate nuclear enrichment. Iran has regularly insisted that it is not pursuing a weapon but will not stop enrichment, as it has the legal right to do under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and that it would agree to strict limits on that enrichment of the kind laid out in the 2015 deal. Advertisement Iran has said that if the sanctions are restored, it will leave the Nonproliferation Treaty and stop all cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. For their part, both Israel and the United States have said they are prepared to bomb Iran again to prevent Tehran from making a nuclear weapon. Iran's position was restated in a briefing to reporters at the United Nations on Wednesday by the country's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, who will be at the Istanbul talks. He said Iran was open to further negotiations with either or both the Europeans and the Americans under certain conditions, including a promise not to attack Iran again. Where other powers stand President Donald Trump and the Israelis have insisted that Iran give up any nuclear enrichment, but some of the Europeans are less adamant so long as limits on enrichment are severe and monitored more closely than they are now. But they also are concerned that Trump, faced with the complications of a deal, may have lost interest, believing that the bombing has solved the problem for now, Geranmayeh said. Iranian officials met this week with its allies Russia and China. One topic, according to Iran's foreign ministry, was how to prevent or mitigate the consequences of any restored sanctions. Russia and China both remain members of the 2015 nuclear deal, as do the Europeans, but they could not prevent the restoration of snapback sanctions if the Europeans chose to exercise them. Trump withdrew American participation in 2018. This article originally appeared in
The Guardian
26-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Afraid of Israel, angry at the regime: Iranians on 12 days of war
Before the war, something in Iran seemed to be shifting, says Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations. Years of protests by the opposition had come at a heavy cost – civilians injured, political prisoners, deaths – but the authoritarian government had begun to make concessions. Most visibly, there were reports that as many as one in three women were moving around Tehran with their heads uncovered. And then the Israeli strikes began, and Geranmayeh says 'all of that has now been turned upside down'. Michael Safi hears how Iranians' relationship with the regime has changed in the last two weeks, as people have rallied around the flag, horrified by Israeli and US bombs, and at the same time expressed anger and shock at a government that seems to have been so little prepared for this war. As a fragile ceasefire seems to hold, many are asking themselves the same question: what kind of Iran will come next? With special thanks to the journalist Deepa Parent, who helped to contact people from across Iran.
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First Post
23-06-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Calculated or cornered? Iran's dilemma after Trump's strikes
As Iran has vowed retaliation to US airstrikes on its nuclear sites, here are five options with Iran that range from kinetic action against US troops in the region to blocking the Strait of Hormuz and cyberattacks. There is also the possibility of Iran doubling down on the nuclear weapons programme. read more Iran is bound to respond after US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend. Such attacks are expected to be multi-domain and not just military attacks. The United States on Saturday attacked the Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan . Even as the extent of the damage is not clear, what is clear is that the United States is now party to the Israel-Iran war and an Iranian retaliation is only a matter of time. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iranian attacks against the United States are now 'inevitable' and 'will be swift and multi-layered based on the extent of damage caused by the US strikes', Ellie Geranmayeh, the Deputy Head of the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Bloomberg. However, any Iranian retaliation would depend on the kind of escalation it can absorb and what capabilities remain — as Israel has taken down many Iranian missile launchers and weapons storage sites. Geranmayeh further said, 'Iran knows it cannot win this war, but wants to ensure that the US and Israel also lose.' Here are the many options that Iran may choose to respond to US strikes. Iranian retaliatory strikes on US troops The simplest way to respond would be to attack US interests in West Asia. Iran could do such attacks itself or tell its proxies to do such attacks. The United States has around 40,000 troops in 20 bases in the region. Major US bases are located in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). US soldiers in smaller numbers are also deployed in Syria and Iraq and experts say that these soldiers and their bases are the most vulnerable to any strikes. Iran may mount a calibrated response that may include strikes on US-linked infrastructure but not US troops themselves, Geranmayeh told Bloomberg. Any Iranian strikes on US soldiers and bases would carry the risk of escalating the conflict, so experts say that Iran could telegraph such strikes so as to minimise the damage and make way for an off-ramp for both sides. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Such a retaliation would be most likely, according to Bloomberg Economics Analyst Dina Esfandiary. With such a telegraphed retaliation, Iran would tell the United States where and what it will strike with the likely lack of US deaths allowing the Donald Trump administration to have an off-ramp and impress upon Israel that it must stop its attacks, which could effectively leading to a ceasefire for all parties, Bloomberg quoted Esfandiary as saying. Iranian cyber attacks Iran has well-known cyberattack capabilities and it is expected deploy them against the United States as part of the broader retaliation. The capabilities are such that, CyberAv3ngers, a group said to be linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), carries a $10 million reward. Strait of Hormuz Iran could block or disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. The consequence will be faced by the entire world and not just the United States and its allies. The waterway carries around 20 per cent of the world's all oil and gas supplies. Iran could mine the waterway and attacks ships passing through with boats and missiles. The blockage would mean that petroleum exporting nations dependent on the waterway would find their exports curtailed. Oil and gas prices are set to surge. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices could reach $120 a barrel and US inflation could surge to 5 per cent, according to JPMorgan Chase. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iranian attacks on oil fields In a less likely option, Iran may also strike oil fields of oil-producing countries in the region, which are mainly US allies and partners. In 2019, Yemen's Houthis carried out drone and missile strikes on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities and temporarily took down around half of the kingdom's oil production. Iran may develop nuclear weapon Beside all these options, the ultimate retaliation may be the development of the nuclear bomb. Even as the United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites, the extent of the damage is not clear. There are also analyses that US strikes neither destroyed Iranian capabilities to enrich uranium completely nor stockpiles of near-weapons grade level uranium. With its back to the wall and conventional deterrence eroded, Iran may very well decide to develop a nuclear weapon.
Al Jazeera
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
What is Europe's stance on the Israel-Iran conflict?
Divisions and anxiety rise in Europe over hostilities in the Middle East. The German leader and European Commission president were quick to back Israel as the conflict began with Iran last Friday. The European Union has since called for de-escalation, reflecting growing anxiety over what might happen next. So, what is the thinking in European capitals – and how much influence does Europe really have? Presenter: Neave Barker Guests: Pieter Cleppe – Editor-in-chief at Steven Erlanger – Chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe at The New York Times in Berlin Ellie Geranmayeh – Deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations
Al Jazeera
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Netanyahu derails any 'diplomatic pathway' with Iran attack
Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme, says Israel's strike on Iran has likely derailed any diplomatic path to restrain Iran's nuclear programme.
