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Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty's 25,000 dilemma: Stuck in a 1,000-point range for 19 sessions, Will the index break free?
What's stopping bulls? Live Events Potential trend breakers Q4FY25 3 tailwinds to watch out for How to trade? (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel India's benchmark Nifty index rallied sharply from a low of 21,744 to hit a 2025 high of 25,116 — a gain of 3,372 points or 16%. However, since then, it has remained stuck in a narrow 1,000-point range, struggling to sustain a breakout above the 25,000 mark. Experts caution that this sideways phase could persist amid ongoing market May 9, 2025, Nifty has been fluctuating between 24,000 and 25,000, closing slightly above 25,000 only on a few occasions. The last time it ended above that level was on May 15, when it closed at 25, on Nifty's failure to break this logjam for the past 19 sessions, Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research, Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking, said that Nifty is facing a strong resistance around the 25,050 mark and has continued to consolidate within a narrow range. Jain sees the overall outlook as positive as long as the index holds above the 200-DMA, which is currently placed at 24, Jonagadla, smallcase Manager and Founder at Quantace Research, attributes this to the positioning of CALL and PUT writers in the options chain. "The weight of positioning in the options still favours more sideways drift. The June 26 monthly [monthly expiry] book shows the heaviest pins at 24,000 PE (72,500 lots, 5.4 million shares) and 25,000 CE (69,400 lots, 5.2 million shares). Writers on both strikes collect the maximum theta if Nifty dies somewhere between them, so every intraday push is rapidly hedged back toward the 24,600-24,800 gamma valley where their net exposure is flattest," he India VIX at 15.8, down from 18.1 seen last Thursday, there is little premium to tempt long volume traders into forcing a break, he expects Nifty to oscillate within the 24,000–25,100 range with multiple support levels starting at 24,500, followed by 24, concurred with the view expecting Nifty to move between 24,000 and 25,000 corridor through the June month, arguing consolidation would continue 'unless we see a decisive migration of open interest above 25,000—or a macro shock that jars volatility'.But if Nifty has to cross this hurdle, tech and auto stocks have to fire, opines IT sector carries 11.3% weight in Nifty and is only second to the financial stocks. The Nifty IT index has corrected 1.4% in the past one week, more than the former's decline of 0.5%.After the US-China struck a tariff deal agreeing to a 90-day pause on May 12, IT stocks rallied strongly helping Nifty to sustain above the 24,000 mark. Notwithstanding the past one week's losses, it is still trading 3% up over a 1-month period, outperforming Nifty's 1.1% Nifty Auto is down 0.5% over the past week and with nearly 5% returns in the last month, it has outperformed the broader Nifty index. With a weight of 7.15%, it is the fourth biggest contributor in expectations from both these sectors are more 'meaningful'. 'A decisive breakout will likely require support from IT stocks in the sessions ahead,' he on the other hand, is convinced that a sector mix would push Nifty decisively beyond 25,000. "Domestic defensives and rate-sensitives rather than the heavyweight banks now catching their breath. Non-bank financials—large NBFCs and life insurers—should lead the charge," he added. FMCG and consumption stocks must also throw their weights around, he opined.'Pharma also offers an additional tailwind with slightly weaker rupee which cushions export realisations just as regulatory clearance rates normalise, while sector valuations remain at a discount to long-term averages,' he further global factors count, earnings remain the most important factor for the market's delivered a fourth successive quarter of single-digit net profit growth since the pandemic of 2020 at 3%, according to estimates by Motilal Oswal. Though they were better than 2%, expected by this broad-based analysis reveals 13 sectors exceeding expectations in the 4QFY25 corporate earnings, showcasing widespread outperformance across aggregates. RBI policy: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to slash repo rate by another 25 bps on Friday, making it third in a row. This could be a positive trigger for rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and auto.A record May GST haul and forecasts of an above-normal monsoon both feed rural demand and bolster urban discretionary spending, keeping top-line momentum intact even if global growth wobbles, Jonagadla of Quantace macros: Jonagadla sees Indian macros as supportive but not catalytic. "Q4 GDP surprise at 7.4 %, May GST receipts set a Rs 2.01-lakh-crore record, and a 10-year G-Sec yield just above 7 % signals an RBI easing bias," he model portfolio stance remains unchanged, with a distinct bias towards large-caps and domestic plays, given the current volatile backdrop. 'We are OW (overweight) on BFSI, consumer discretionary, industrials, healthcare, IT and telecom while we are underweight on Oil & Gas, cement, automobiles, real estate and metals," MOFSL said that a bullish signal has emerged with a golden crossover, as the 50-DMA has moved above the 200-DMA. A 'buy on dips' strategy is advisable.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Nifty's 25,000 dilemma: Stuck in a 1,000-point range for 19 sessions, Will the index break free?
India's benchmark Nifty index rallied sharply from a low of 21,744 to hit a 2025 high of 25,116 — a gain of 3,372 points or 16%. However, since then, it has remained stuck in a narrow 1,000-point range, struggling to sustain a breakout above the 25,000 mark. Experts caution that this sideways phase could persist amid ongoing market challenges. Since May 9, 2025, Nifty has been fluctuating between 24,000 and 25,000, closing slightly above 25,000 only on a few occasions. The last time it ended above that level was on May 15, when it closed at 25,052. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Many Are Watching Tariffs - Few Are Watching What Nvidia Just Launched Seeking Alpha Read Now Commenting on Nifty's failure to break this logjam for the past 19 sessions, Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research, Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking, said that Nifty is facing a strong resistance around the 25,050 mark and has continued to consolidate within a narrow range. Jain sees the overall outlook as positive as long as the index holds above the 200-DMA, which is currently placed at 24,070. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. What's stopping bulls? Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase Manager and Founder at Quantace Research, attributes this to the positioning of CALL and PUT writers in the options chain. "The weight of positioning in the options still favours more sideways drift. The June 26 monthly [monthly expiry] book shows the heaviest pins at 24,000 PE (72,500 lots, 5.4 million shares) and 25,000 CE (69,400 lots, 5.2 million shares). Writers on both strikes collect the maximum theta if Nifty dies somewhere between them, so every intraday push is rapidly hedged back toward the 24,600-24,800 gamma valley where their net exposure is flattest," he said. Live Events With India VIX at 15.8, down from 18.1 seen last Thursday, there is little premium to tempt long volume traders into forcing a break, he opined. Potential trend breakers Jain expects Nifty to oscillate within the 24,000–25,100 range with multiple support levels starting at 24,500, followed by 24,350. Jonagadla concurred with the view expecting Nifty to move between 24,000 and 25,000 corridor through the June month, arguing consolidation would continue 'unless we see a decisive migration of open interest above 25,000—or a macro shock that jars volatility'. But if Nifty has to cross this hurdle, tech and auto stocks have to fire, opines Jain. The IT sector carries 11.3% weight in Nifty and is only second to the financial stocks. The Nifty IT index has corrected 1.4% in the past one week, more than the former's decline of 0.5%. After the US-China struck a tariff deal agreeing to a 90-day pause on May 12, IT stocks rallied strongly helping Nifty to sustain above the 24,000 mark. Notwithstanding the past one week's losses, it is still trading 3% up over a 1-month period, outperforming Nifty's 1.1% uptick. Meanwhile, Nifty Auto is down 0.5% over the past week and with nearly 5% returns in the last month, it has outperformed the broader Nifty index. With a weight of 7.15%, it is the fourth biggest contributor in Nifty. Also Read: Auto Q4FY25 Wrap: Two-wheelers lead PAT surge with TVS Motor, Eicher in front; top 13 counters to buy Jain's expectations from both these sectors are more 'meaningful'. 'A decisive breakout will likely require support from IT stocks in the sessions ahead,' he added. Jonagadla, on the other hand, is convinced that a sector mix would push Nifty decisively beyond 25,000. "Domestic defensives and rate-sensitives rather than the heavyweight banks now catching their breath. Non-bank financials—large NBFCs and life insurers—should lead the charge," he added. FMCG and consumption stocks must also throw their weights around, he opined. 'Pharma also offers an additional tailwind with slightly weaker rupee which cushions export realisations just as regulatory clearance rates normalise, while sector valuations remain at a discount to long-term averages,' he further said. Q4FY25 While global factors count, earnings remain the most important factor for the market's trajectory. Nifty delivered a fourth successive quarter of single-digit net profit growth since the pandemic of 2020 at 3%, according to estimates by Motilal Oswal. Though they were better than 2%, expected by this brokerage. MOFSL's broad-based analysis reveals 13 sectors exceeding expectations in the 4QFY25 corporate earnings, showcasing widespread outperformance across aggregates. Also Read: Nifty's PAT grew 3% in Q4FY25, beat Motilal Oswal's estimates; Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank among top 5 contributors 3 tailwinds to watch out for 1) RBI policy: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to slash repo rate by another 25 bps on Friday, making it third in a row. This could be a positive trigger for rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and auto. 2) A record May GST haul and forecasts of an above-normal monsoon both feed rural demand and bolster urban discretionary spending, keeping top-line momentum intact even if global growth wobbles, Jonagadla of Quantace Research. 3) Indian macros: Jonagadla sees Indian macros as supportive but not catalytic. "Q4 GDP surprise at 7.4 %, May GST receipts set a Rs 2.01-lakh-crore record, and a 10-year G-Sec yield just above 7 % signals an RBI easing bias," he said. How to trade? MOFSL's model portfolio stance remains unchanged, with a distinct bias towards large-caps and domestic plays, given the current volatile backdrop. 'We are OW (overweight) on BFSI, consumer discretionary, industrials, healthcare, IT and telecom while we are underweight on Oil & Gas, cement, automobiles, real estate and metals," MOFSL said. Jain said that a bullish signal has emerged with a golden crossover, as the 50-DMA has moved above the 200-DMA. A 'buy on dips' strategy is advisable. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Economic Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Fear gauge India VIX spikes 8% in a week. Here are 3 tips to avoid a crash
India VIX has spiked over 8% in the past week, with its impact clearly visible on Dalal Street on Tuesday. Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President of Equity Research (Technical and Derivatives) at Centrum Broking, observed that market volatility has remained high over the last two to three sessions, with the India VIX climbing from about 15 to 19. He explained that this spike is largely due to a significant buildup of call writing positions, which is capping any short-covering attempts and establishing a firm resistance around the 25,000 mark. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads What is leading to volatile trade? 3 things that investors should do: India's fear gauge, the India VIX , has surged over 8% in the past week, and the impact was evident on Dalal Street on Tuesday as benchmark indices swung wildly. Selling pressure in auto, IT, and financial stocks added to the volatility ahead of the monthly expiry on Thursday. The VIX jumped nearly 6% during the session, hitting a high of 19.06, as the Nifty moved within a 300-point range and the BSE Sensex fluctuated over 1,100 points between its intraday high and on the day's action, Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking said that volatility in the markets has been quite high over the past 2-3 sessions, with India VIX moving from levels around 15 to 19, today. He attributed this to the presence of high concentration of call writers who are preventing any short covering move and creating a strong resistance at 25, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments the market to likely consolidate around the current levels in the near-term. "A sustained rally will happen only when leading indicators suggest revival in earnings growth. Since mutual funds are sitting on sizeable cash any dip will be bought into and high valuations will trigger selling on rallies," he also decoded the current investor mood, saying that there is a slow accumulation in rate-sensitive sectors like autos in anticipation of more rate cuts which are almost sure to happen since inflation is trending down. The investors are staying invested by way of SIP with a longer time Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its monetary policy (MPC) next week and the outcome will come on June stabilized after President Donald Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs on April 9, triggering a nearly 9% rally in the Nifty. However, fresh concerns emerged following his recent comments on trade negotiations with the European Union, where he claimed the talks were going "nowhere" and threatened to impose a 50% tariff, though he later deferred the decision from June to July. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump also warned of a potential 25% tariff on smartphone makers like Apple and Samsung if they continue selling devices in the U.S. that are manufactured yields are up amid current uncertainties and investors seem to be booking profit after the recent rally in Indian equities and moving to less risky assets, Aamar Deo Singh, Senior Vice President-Equity, Commodity & Currency at Angel One Read: Bitter-sweet ride: 10 sugar stocks outperform Nifty with up to 77% returns, but 18 sink as much as 36% 1) Avoid aggressive bets on index futures & options (F&O), including Nifty and Bank Nifty, Jain said.2) Adopt a stock specific approach and use corrections as a buying opportunity, Jain of Centrum Broking said.3) Angel One's Deo advises investors to buy in small tranches with a long-term horizon. He suggests sector diversification with trusted names like HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL).(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
24-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Between FOMO and fundamentals: Kotak's Shrikant Chouhan decodes the market rally
Edited excerpts from a chat: Live Events What's your reading of retail investor behaviour right now? Have most of them learnt lessons after playing with fire by chasing SME and momentum-heavy smallcaps? Operation Sindoor has also worked like an international defence expo showcasing the might of Indian defence companies. This is also reflected in the dramatic movement in share prices. How strong is the defence story on Dalal Street? With valuations stretched in certain pockets of the market, do you think the Q4 earnings season was strong enough to justify the rally that we are seeing? As an investor today, would you back consumption, capex, or financials in FY26? (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Indian markets have been on a bullish streak despite global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. In this exclusive conversation with ET Markets, Shrikant S. Chouhan, Head - Equity Research, Kotak Securities, shares his insights on what's truly driving the rally - fundamentals or weighs in on the resilience of defence stocks post-Operation Sindoor, the caution warranted by current valuations, and the sectors likely to lead in FY26. With a tempered Nifty target and a focus on select large-caps and financials, he advocates a balanced, opportunity-driven investment are dancing near lifetime highs. How much of this is driven by fundamentals and how much by FOMO?Indian markets have delivered a strong performance over the past one month, despite global uncertainty. The market performance suggests markets to be pricing in the resolution of ongoing trade and tariff issues with the US and geopolitical risks being under control. There are some positives including expected good monsoon, RBI rate cut and lower investors have been steady net sellers in Indian equities directly in recent months and reducing net inflows into MFs, with increasing gross outflows. The average retail investor appears to have turned more don't have active coverage on defence stocks, however, most of these stocks seem to be trading at expensive valuations. Adding ETFs with a view of more than 12 months would be the prudent FY26E/27E net profits of the Nifty-50 Index have seen cuts since the start of CY25. Nifty-50 index is trading at ~22x/19x on FY26E/FY27E earnings. The focus should be in large-caps with select presence in mid-cap and small-cap. In the banking space, we find value in the larger names. For the mid-cap and small-cap, the approach should be stock-specific with focus on growth and valuation are giving priority to financials but we cannot leave the consumption sector, which is attractive with a view of 12 months. For capex related stories, we need to be current earnings momentum, macro tailwinds, and political stability bets, is Nifty 30,000 a realistic target by end of FY26? Nifty target is 26000 that is based on the EPS of ~Rs1300 for FY27E. However, we would like to add that we are observing a steady cut in the EPS, and if that continues then there is a risk to our have been caught between two battlefronts lately — the global trade tariff war and the near war-like tensions between India and Pakistan. Now that both seem to be easing, what are the key takeaways for investors from this double dose of geopolitical anxiety?Both bulls and bears are likely to benefit from the current market momentum, given the volatility. However, investors should consider seeking investment opportunities during dips, as the intensity of news flow has significantly decreased, which will help minimize potential downside risks for the market.
Bloomberg
30-01-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Markets 01/30/2025
"Bloomberg Markets" follows the market moves across every global asset class and discusses the biggest issues for Wall Street. Today's guests are: Oppenheimer Executive Director Of Equity Research Kristen Owen, UPS CEO Carol Tome, Betterment CEO Sarah Levy, PIMCO Portfolio Manager Of Multi-Sector Credit Sonali Pier, and Tribe AI CEO Jaclyn Rice Nelson. (Source: Bloomberg)
