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Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dutch NATO math portends uphill battle for Europe on defense spending
PARIS — The Netherlands worked out the costs of meeting NATO's new capability targets, providing a taste of the billion-euro budget challenge European members of the alliance face to boost their military posture in the face of a more aggressive Russia. The Dutch calculate that meeting their share of the targets will cost at least €16 billion to €19 billion ($18 billion-$21 billion) a year on top of the existing defense budget, Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans told parliament in a letter last week. That would amount to about 3.5% of GDP, from 2% now – conveniently also the core defense spending target that NATO leadership is calling for. NATO's Capability Targets 2025, to be formally set at a summit in The Hague in June, will significantly increase the requirements compared to previous targets, according to the Dutch. The CT25 focus will be on ground-based air and missile defense, ground-based fire support, land maneuver units and joint enablers, Brekelmans said. For the larger economies of Germany, France and the U.K., meeting the new targets means 'we're no longer talking about a few billion extra per year, but tens of billions,' said Dick Zandee, senior research fellow at Dutch think tank Clingendael Institute and former head of planning at the European Defence Agency. The three countries have the biggest defense budgets of European NATO members, spending a little over 2% of GDP on their military. The Netherlands is Europe's sixth-biggest spender, lifting its 2025 defense budget to €22 billion euros from €21.4 billion last year. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded NATO countries increase military spending to 5% of GDP, threatening to pull out of the alliance if members don't pay up. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week he expects alliance members to agree to a 5% spending target in The Hague, with a proposal for 3.5% of GDP for direct military spending and another 1.5% for related spending such as infrastructure and cybersecurity. The Netherlands also estimates meeting the new NATO capability targets will require 17,000 to 18,000 more personnel. While the 32-nation alliance typically keeps the capability targets secret, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Adm. Pierre Vandier said in March the alliance will ask members to raise military capability targets by 30% – even with allies already 30% behind on delivering on existing goals. The Dutch say the NATO 'standard path' to fully meet the capability targets has been 19 years, but current threats make a faster build-up necessary, and NATO expects 'a significant part will already be built up in the coming years.' Brekelmans says around €9 billion to €10 billion of the calculated costs and 8,500 to 9,000 of the personnel count are attributable to the Netherlands not yet having fully met NATO's 2021 capability targets. While NATO defense planning is based on the principle that all the capabilities are realized, 'in practice of course, that is never achieved,' Zandee said. Neighboring Germany and Belgium have similar issues as the Netherlands of having to play catch up with the 2021 targets, with personnel shortages partially explaining the shortcomings, he said. 'All countries are coming out of roughly two decades of severe budget cuts, all countries to a varying degree donated to Ukraine, reducing stocks and supplies,' Zandee said. 'The Netherlands is not really in a unique position in this regard.' The calculations by Brekelmans exclude the costs of host nation support, with Dutch responsibility within the alliance for large-scale transfer of military equipment, as well as homeland defense and military activities outside the NATO treaty area, such as the Caribbean Netherlands. That means total defense costs would exceed 3.5% of GDP, according to Brekelmans. The Netherlands has typically been transparent about the costs of NATO targets, according to Zandee. Publishing the figures serves a political purpose in trying to muster broad parliamentary and coalition-government support for a bigger defense budget, a politically sensitive issue in the country, and gain popular support for more spending, he said. Spending 3.5% of GDP on core defense is achievable for a country like the Netherlands with healthy public finances, and also quite doable for Scandinavian countries, Zandee said. For countries in southern Europe with high debt levels 'it does become a big problem,' for example in France, where more defense spending will mean more borrowing. Italy, Spain and Belgium, among the NATO members that spend the least on defense relative to their economy, all have government debt to GDP ratios above 100%. Greece and France, the other European Union countries in NATO whose debt exceeds GDP, have historically been bigger military spenders. By contrast, the Netherlands had a debt to GDP ratio of 43.3% at the end of 2024, while for Germany the ratio was 62.5%. Zandee expects Germany under new Chancellor Friedrich Merz will agree to the 3.5% target, the British as loyal allies will commit despite 'major financial problems,' while the Netherlands will ultimately also go along. 'The problem mainly starts in Belgium and then further south,' Zandee said. 'The French will simply take the budgetary risk, because they are not going to back down. But the Italians and the Spanish in particular will have to perform some fancy maneuvering.' Some countries are already well on their way to meeting the NATO target. Estonia announced in April that it would increase defense spending to 5.4% of GDP already in 2026 and through to 2029, for an additional €2.8 billion of additional budget over four years, with the government saying spending would take into account the NATO capability targets. Meanwhile, Denmark said in February it will spend an additional 50 billion Danish kroner (US$7.6 billion) in 2025 and 2026 to strengthen its armed forces in the short term, also with a view to NATO demands and capability targets, lifting defense spending to above 3% of GDP. Poland is the only NATO country that has already met the new target, spending 4.1% of GDP on defense in 2024, for total spending of around $35 billion. Some countries may agree to 3.5% of core defense spending in The Hague with no intention of ever reaching the target, to keep NATO alive, even if they won't say so publicly, Zandee said. He said the same happened with the 2% spending target agreed in Wales in 2014. 'When it comes to the survival of the alliance and keeping the Americans in, I think even those countries will simply agree to it,' Zandee said. 'That 3.5% is almost a done deal. If Trump can wave that one piece of paper and say, 'I've achieved all this,' then the NATO summit will have been a success, it's as simple as that.'


Extra.ie
27-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Extra.ie
Popular RTE programme set to disappear from screens within days amid summer schedule shake-up
RTE fans are in for a seasonal shake-up as popular daytime programme 'Today' prepares to go off-air for the summer. The long-running afternoon chat show, fronted by Maura Derrane, Dáithí Ó Sé, and Sinéad Kennedy, has been a weekday staple from 3:30pm to 5:40pm, entertaining viewers for the past nine months. Dáithí Ó Sé and Maura Derrane. Pic: Gerard McCarthy Dáithí co-hosts alongside Sinéad on Mondays and Tuesdays, before teaming up with Maura from Wednesday to Friday. However, the current season will wrap up on Friday, May 30, as the team signs off for their traditional summer hiatus. Sinéad Kennedy confirmed the season's end via Instagram, revealing it was the 'second last week of the season.' She thanked the production team, saying: 'Thanks as ever to the wonderful team I work with week in and week out.' Sinéad returned to the show last September following maternity leave after welcoming her second child, Theo, with husband Conor Kirwan. The couple, who also share a four-year-old daughter, Indie, spent time in Belgium during her leave, where Conor is based with the European Defence Agency. The show is set to return in September as part of RTE's autumn schedule. RTE's shake-up doesn't stop with 'Today'. The Late Late Show also ended its current run earlier this month, with host Patrick Kielty wrapping up his second season on Friday, May 9. The comedian from Co. Down, who took over the reins from Ryan Tubridy and signed a three-season deal, thanked viewers for their support as he now takes a break until September 2025. The Late Late Show host Patrick Kielty. Pic: Andres Poveda His final episode featured memorable guests including RTE broadcaster Joe Duffy, who discussed his upcoming retirement, singer Nadine Coyle of Girls Aloud, and NFL legend Tom Brady. To fill the Friday night slot during the break, RTE will air a selection of films at 9:35pm, offering a lighter summer lineup in place of The Late Late Show.


Spectator
22-05-2025
- Business
- Spectator
Could the EU sideline Britain in its defence loan scheme?
The Security and Defence Partnership which the government agreed with the European Union this week has had more spin applied to it than a thousand cricket balls. The central argument in its favour, apart from vacuous reiki-like attempts to change the 'mood' of relations with the EU, was that it would allow the UK defence sector to engage with the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loan instrument providing €150 billion (£127 billion) for defence procurement over the next five years. It does not do that. You would be hard pressed to realise that the partnership has not succeeded in what many saw as its central purpose. Weasel words came in a pack, and some commentators were openly untruthful, but the 'ambitious' deal says only that 'possibilities for establishing an administrative arrangement between the UK and the European Defence Agency (EDA) will… be explored'. The most positive official statement of the whole summit was a single sentence in the 'Common


Euronews
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
War 3.0: Europe's smart defence challenge
ADVERTISEMENT European armies are increasingly relying on what are referred to as emerging and disruptive technologies to improve their performance, protect themselves better and weaken their enemies. One of the most important of these technologies is artificial intelligence, which is capable of analysing vast data sets to anticipate threats and enable rapid decision-making. Another promising field is robotics, with the development of autonomous systems such as transport robots, and mainly drones. Hypersonic weapons, advanced materials, and quantum technologies are also opening up major opportunities. Our reporter Valérie Gauriat went to Poland, which has made defence a priority during its rotating presidency of the European Union. Like many other member states, the country is exploring the promise of emerging technologies applied to defence. In Warsaw, a recent 'Hackathon' brought together approximately 200 developers from across Europe to design defence-related technology projects in 24 hours. 'We are building a defence innovation network to inspire young people to work on life-saving solutions and address urgent security challenges,' explains Benjamin Wolba, co-founder of the European Defence Tech Hub network, co-organiser of the event. 'Europe must wake up; we need to have the means to defend ourselves,' he insists. The projects presented by multinational teams include a system based on software-defined radios to locate enemy positions, or an initiative combining phage therapy with AI to rapidly treat antibiotic-resistant infections in soldiers. Ukrainian students created an autonomous spherical robot for offensive missions, as well as visually guided munitions to target enemy positions more precisely. 'Europe must turn to autonomous systems, because they are the future', emphasises Illya, who specialises in computer vision. 'This is how we can save lives in the event of war. Robots will fight, not people.' For these young engineers, the challenge goes beyond simple technological prowess. 'We have expertise in systems engineering, navigation, and computer vision, but above all, this initiative echoes our values,' explains João, member of a Portuguese team that came to present a navigation system using artificial intelligence to locate drones in the absence of GPS. 'We are fighting for what we believe in: our freedom as Europeans.' Technological advances also pose new challenges: cyberattacks, the vulnerability of energy infrastructure, and disruptions to space capabilities are all threats that have become real, emphasises Federica Valente, Head of Innovation at the European Defence Agency. Europe must speed up adoption of these technologies to address these dangers, she says. And it must also make up for lost time on the financial front. The fragmented of investment between Member States, the persistent gap between civilian and military technologies, and the lack of access to capital for defence startups are some of the obstacles that need to be overcome, she explains. 'We really need to coordinate and channel investment into innovative action in defence,' concludes Valente.
Yahoo
09-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
European Defence Agency portfolio swells under bloc's defense ambition
THE HAGUE, Netherlands — The European Defence Agency enters its third decade with a beefed-up mandate and record spending, as officials face mounting pressure to transform political ambitions into combat-ready capabilities. The agency now oversees five core tasks – up from three – including joint procurement facilitation and defense innovation coordination, the agency said in its annual report, released this week. The update follows a May 2024 landmark Long-Term Review endorsed by EU defense ministers, who pledged to increase collaborative spending amid concerns over industrial fragmentation and technological gaps. EU defense expenditure was projected to have reached €326 billion, or $361 billion, in 2024 (1.9% of GDP), a 30% increase since 2021. Almost a third (31%) now flows to defense investments, primarily the procurement of new equipment. Nonetheless, Europe still spends less than 0.05% of its GDP on defense research and technology – a fraction of U.S. and Chinese investments. 'Buying together saves money, while developing assets together makes us more independent,' said Jiří Šedivý, the Agency's chief executive, last December. The agency's expanded role includes managing around 200 projects worth €681 million, from the Low Earth Orbit satellite demonstrator to the multinational procurement of 155 mm artillery shells for Ukraine. Ten countries have ordered over €350 million worth of ammunition through EDA's fast-track mechanism, with first deliveries reaching Kyiv in May 2024. 'The European defence base remains fragmented, characterised by a lack of joint procurement and national preferences for defence spending. This results in small, localised markets with relatively low production numbers,' Šedivý told a February 2025 European Economic and Social Committee forum. One of the EDA's key objectives is to neutralize this European disadvantage and instead play to the Union's strengths. The joint procurement of weapons is one example of this, and an entirely new dimension to the EU's capabilities that would have been unthinkable until Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was formalized as one of the EDA's tasks in May 2024. Brussels's joint purchase of shells was the first time that the bloc had jointly made an arms purchase. Since 2022, the European Union has become more assertive in the defense space and has made decisive moves towards increasing Brussels' role in military matters. Just last month, EU leaders greenlit a new defense spending scheme. Closer collaboration with Switzerland, Norway, Ukraine, and the United States – albeit based on pre-Trump trends – was also in the cards, according to the EDA report. Four landmark letters of intent were facilitated by the European Defence Agency last year. The flagship amongst them—literally—is an agreement to develop a common European combat vessel by 2040. The ECV is meant to 'protect trade routes to ensure the uninterrupted flow of goods to and from EU territory,' the Agency said in its report. The other three big new projects cover loitering munitions, electronic warfare and an integrated air and missile defense for the continent, with the Agency working to coordinate procurement and conduct research into disruptive technologies to give Europe a leg up on threats only just beginning to emerge. Despite the increase in scope and subsequent back-patting in its annual self-assessment, some challenges do remain for the EDA. For one, the EU's stated goal to make 35% of all defense procurements collaboratively is likely still ambitious, with the most recent numbers from 2021 putting it at 18%. 'The urge to swiftly address capability shortfalls through readily available military equipment has led to a surge of national off-the-shelf acquisitions, causing a temporary slowdown of collaborative procurement,' the EDA wrote in its end-of-2024 report last December. As the Agency prepares to move into its brand new, purpose-built Brussels headquarters by 2027, its test will be converting ministerial declarations into deployable capabilities. With the European Defence Fund allocating €1 billion for 2025 R&D projects – including AI-enabled systems and dual-use technologies – the agency will see growing importance, but also increased pressure to deliver strategically relevant results. 'As Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine enters its fourth year, the need for a strong, resilient, and coordinated European defence is greater than ever,' Šedivý said in his recap of the past year. The EU must be able to defend itself, he added -- 'alone, if necessary. This new era demands bold decisions and action.'