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The Sun
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Sun
Trzaskowski: pro-EU polyglot eyeing Polish presidency
WARSAW: Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, running neck-and-neck with his nationalist rival ahead of Poland's presidential runoff, is an avowed Europhile pledging to relax abortion laws and protect LGBTQ rights. Trzaskowski narrowly won the first round of voting on May 18, polling 31 percent against 30 percent for Karol Nawrocki, a historian backed by the conservative opposition. 'I promise you that I will be a president who unites, who is ready to talk to everyone,' Trzaskowski promised a crowd of supporters as he rallied for support a week before the runoff. A former deputy foreign minister, the 53-year-old is also the son of a jazz pioneer and great-grandson of the man who created Poland's first secondary schools for girls. Trzaskowski is backed by the governing Civic Coalition party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and will face off against Nawrocki, the Law and Justice candidate. Trzaskowski narrowly lost his first presidential bid in 2020 to the conservative Andrzej Duda, who backs Nawrocki. - Early start - Trzaskowski comes from an intellectual Warsaw family. His father Andrzej was a famous pianist during the 1950s, when jazz was considered the music of the 'enemy' under the Iron Curtain. Trzaskowski himself started out in politics in a seismic year for the former Soviet bloc -- 1989, when the Berlin Wall came down. A teenager at the time, he quit school and worked as a volunteer campaigning during the first free elections in Poland, which marked the end of the communist era. He graduated from the University of Warsaw, where he later earned a doctorate with a thesis on EU reform. He has also studied in Oxford and Paris, and at the College of Europe outside Warsaw. He speaks English, French, Italian, Russian and Spanish and worked for a time as an English teacher. As a Francophile, he has even earned the nickname 'Bonjour', or hello in French -- a jab from critics who view Trzaskowski as elitist. In 2000, he worked on Poland's accession to the European Union, then became an adviser to the Civic Platform delegation in the European Parliament. He became an EU lawmaker in 2009, and in 2013 joined an earlier government led by Tusk, who went on to become president of the European Council. Trzaskowski first served as technology minister and then deputy foreign minister. As a member of the Polish parliament between 2015 and 2018, he was elected vice president of the European People's Party in 2017. Trzaskowski was elected mayor of Warsaw in 2018 and re-elected in 2024, but critics say he has failed to do enough while in office. - 'Absurd' - Trzaskowski, who is married with two children, has vowed to campaign for women's rights and legalise abortion in the predominantly Catholic country, which has a near-total ban on the procedure. In March, on International Women's Day, he promised to ensure that 'this medieval anti-abortion law becomes a thing of the past'. He has said he would back measures to allow abortion until the 12th week -- a move pledged by the Civic Coalition, which has yet to vote the changes through in parliament. On LGBTQ rights, another hot-button issue in Poland, Trzaskowski has said he backed the idea of civil unions, including for same-sex couples. The European Court of Human Rights has condemned Poland for refusing to recognise and protect same-sex couples, who cannot marry or register their partnerships. In an election debate in April, Trzaskowski said it was 'completely absurd that two people... who are together their whole lives, cannot visit each other in the hospital or inherit from one another'. When he was elected Warsaw mayor, he signed an 'LGBT+ Declaration' promising to protect gay people, angering the country's right-wing nationalists, who campaign against a perceived 'LGBT ideology'. But as he tried to woo voters from across the political spectrum ahead of the runoff, he was photographed chatting over pints with far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen. In a Facebook post he once described his love of old books and stated that he had smoked marijuana in his youth but only 'rarely'. He owns a French bulldog named Babel ('Bubble'), with whom he frequently poses for photos.
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Brexit hasn't hurt productivity. Open borders and costly power have
Life is much simpler if you are willing to blame Brexit for anything that is going wrong in the British economy. This easy road attracts plenty of 'likes' on social media from those who want the UK to rejoin the EU, and column inches in the Europhile press. Unfortunately, it almost always leads you down the wrong path. Take the observation that GDP per head has grown much faster since 2016 in the euro area than it has in the UK – 'nearly three times as fast', according to one cheerful commentator. Does this not 'lay bare the full cost of Brexit'? In reality, no. It is correct to say that the UK has significantly underperformed the euro area on this measure since 2016, after marginally outperforming in the period between 2000 and 2016. However, this raises the question of why the UK has struggled. Here it is much more insightful to compare the performance of the UK with those of individual countries and to cast the net wider to include all the G7 group of major advanced economies. The precise numbers vary according to the source. But using some internationally comparable data from the OECD, UK GDP per head grew by a total of just 4pc in the eight years between 2016 and 2024, compared to 17pc between 2000 and 2016. So far, so bad. None the less, only one G7 economy was able to maintain consistently strong growth in GDP per head across these two periods – and that was the United States. It is surely more useful to ask what has gone right there, rather than focusing exclusively on re-aligning Britain with the European Union. This is especially important when talking about regulatory alignment. IMF research has found that the EU's internal barriers and regulations are equivalent to a tariff of 44pc for manufacturing – compared to just 15pc in the US – and as high as 110pc for services. It is not something we would want to replicate. Admittedly, the exceptional US performance has also been flattered by factors which are not easily replicable elsewhere. Some are not even sustainable in the US – notably the large budget deficits underpinned by previously strong international appetite for dollar assets. But just comparing headline numbers misses these nuances too. Within Europe, the standout performer since 2016 is Italy, which has recorded the second highest growth in GDP per head in the G7 – behind only the US. But this rebound must be viewed in context, as the Italian economy barely grew at all during the first decade after adopting the euro in 1999. Italy's recent impressive performance has also been flattered by a construction and renovation boom, fuelled by tax breaks and other subsidies. That stimulus is fading fast. France serves as a more suitable benchmark for the UK and has also outperformed 'Brexit Britain' since 2016, albeit by much less than Italy. This outperformance can partly be explained by France's adoption of more business-friendly tax and regulatory policies, and the advantage of relatively cheap and reliable supplies of energy. But France's public finances are in an even worse state than those in the UK, so this Gallic exceptionalism may not last long either. Those relying on GDP per head as a measure of the impact of Brexit then have to gloss over Germany's even worse performance. Since 2016, Germany's GDP per head has grown by barely 2pc, compared to 20pc in the period between 2000 and 2016. Was that also due to Brexit? Of course not. Common factors between the UK and Germany include the difficult transition to electric vehicles, relatively high energy costs and policy choices regarding non-EU migration. But perhaps the most interesting comparison is with Canada, where growth in GDP per head since 2016 has been roughly half the pace in the UK, and the weakest in the G7. It cannot be a coincidence that Canada has experienced the highest population growth in the G7 over this period, as successive governments have encouraged immigration to address labour shortages. Does that sound familiar? Indeed, this exposes one limitation of using GDP per head as a measure of underlying economic performance. This assumes that population growth might be expected to translate one for one into growth in output, income and expenditure, so it then makes sense to adjust for that. But this still depends on what is driving the increase in the population. Imagine a scenario where population growth reflects a high birth rate. The population may then increase, but the working population might not. GDP per head could then decrease simply because the same amount of income is shared among more people, but this does not necessarily mean that the economy itself has become less productive. Of course, the recent rapid growth in the UK population has been driven by net migration, not more births. But if a larger proportion of new immigrants are students or dependents, GDP per head could still be lower. And this is in addition to the risk that an over-reliance on cheap labour from abroad can trap an economy in a low-wage, low-productivity equilibrium. To be clear, the uncertainty and new trade frictions created by leaving the EU has had some negative effects on the UK economy. But there are many other factors that together have had a much greater impact on growth in GDP per head – notably mass immigration and high energy costs. Julian Jesop (@julianhjessop) is an independent economist Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
28-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Brexit hasn't hurt productivity. Open borders and costly power have
Life is much simpler if you are willing to blame Brexit for anything that is going wrong in the British economy. This easy road attracts plenty of 'likes' on social media from those who want the UK to rejoin the EU, and column inches in the Europhile press. Unfortunately, it almost always leads you down the wrong path. Take the observation that GDP per head has grown much faster since 2016 in the euro area than it has in the UK – 'nearly three times as fast', according to one cheerful commentator. Does this not 'lay bare the full cost of Brexit'? In reality, no. It is correct to say that the UK has significantly underperformed the euro area on this measure since 2016, after marginally outperforming in the period between 2000 and 2016. However, this raises the question of why the UK has struggled. Here it is much more insightful to compare the performance of the UK with those of individual countries and to cast the net wider to include all the G7 group of major advanced economies. The precise numbers vary according to the source. But using some internationally comparable data from the OECD, UK GDP per head grew by a total of just 4pc in the eight years between 2016 and 2024, compared to 17pc between 2000 and 2016. So far, so bad. None the less, only one G7 economy was able to maintain consistently strong growth in GDP per head across these two periods – and that was the United States. It is surely more useful to ask what has gone right there, rather than focusing exclusively on re-aligning Britain with the European Union. This is especially important when talking about regulatory alignment. IMF research has found that the EU's internal barriers and regulations are equivalent to a tariff of 44pc for manufacturing – compared to just 15pc in the US – and as high as 110pc for services. It is not something we would want to replicate. Admittedly, the exceptional US performance has also been flattered by factors which are not easily replicable elsewhere. Some are not even sustainable in the US – notably the large budget deficits underpinned by previously strong international appetite for dollar assets. But just comparing headline numbers misses these nuances too. Within Europe, the standout performer since 2016 is Italy, which has recorded the second highest growth in GDP per head in the G7 – behind only the US. But this rebound must be viewed in context, as the Italian economy barely grew at all during the first decade after adopting the euro in 1999. Italy's recent impressive performance has also been flattered by a construction and renovation boom, fuelled by tax breaks and other subsidies. That stimulus is fading fast. France serves as a more suitable benchmark for the UK and has also outperformed 'Brexit Britain' since 2016, albeit by much less than Italy. This outperformance can partly be explained by France's adoption of more business-friendly tax and regulatory policies, and the advantage of relatively cheap and reliable supplies of energy. But France's public finances are in an even worse state than those in the UK, so this Gallic exceptionalism may not last long either. Those relying on GDP per head as a measure of the impact of Brexit then have to gloss over Germany's even worse performance. Since 2016, Germany's GDP per head has grown by barely 2pc, compared to 20pc in the period between 2000 and 2016. Was that also due to Brexit? Of course not. Common factors between the UK and Germany include the difficult transition to electric vehicles, relatively high energy costs and policy choices regarding non-EU migration. But perhaps the most interesting comparison is with Canada, where growth in GDP per head since 2016 has been roughly half the pace in the UK, and the weakest in the G7. It cannot be a coincidence that Canada has experienced the highest population growth in the G7 over this period, as successive governments have encouraged immigration to address labour shortages. Does that sound familiar? Indeed, this exposes one limitation of using GDP per head as a measure of underlying economic performance. This assumes that population growth might be expected to translate one for one into growth in output, income and expenditure, so it then makes sense to adjust for that. But this still depends on what is driving the increase in the population. Imagine a scenario where population growth reflects a high birth rate. The population may then increase, but the working population might not. GDP per head could then decrease simply because the same amount of income is shared among more people, but this does not necessarily mean that the economy itself has become less productive. Of course, the recent rapid growth in the UK population has been driven by net migration, not more births. But if a larger proportion of new immigrants are students or dependents, GDP per head could still be lower. And this is in addition to the risk that AN over-reliance on cheap labour from abroad can trap an economy in a low-wage, low-productivity equilibrium. To be clear, the uncertainty and new trade frictions created by leaving the EU has had some negative effects on the UK economy. But there are many other factors that together have had a much greater impact on growth in GDP per head – notably mass immigration and high energy costs.
France 24
27-05-2025
- Politics
- France 24
Poland to vote in razor-tight presidential election
The two candidates -- Rafal Trzaskowski, backed by the ruling centrists, and Karol Nawrocki, a political novice supported by the opposition Law and Justice party -- are running neck-and-neck in opinion polls. The latest estimates have them tied at 46.3 percent of voting intentions, spelling a nail-biting final stretch of the campaign. The rivals have been scrambling for the past week to woo voters from across the political spectrum. "I promise you that I will be a president who unites, who is ready to talk to everyone," Trzaskowski told a crowd of supporters rallying in Warsaw on Sunday. Nawrocki held a rival demonstration at the same time -- with tens of thousands of people gathered for both events. Victory for Trzaskowski, 53, would be a major boost for Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief who returned to power in the 2023 parliamentary elections. The result will be closely watched across Europe and beyond as a win for Nawrocki could cast doubt on Poland's staunch support for neighbouring Ukraine. Nawrocki, 42, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has spoken against the benefits given to the one million Ukrainian refugees living in Poland. Chatting over pints Trzaskowski won the first round of the election on May 18 by a razor-thin margin, polling 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki. Far-right candidates received a combined 21.15 percent -- leaving Nawrocki buoyed and with a larger potential pool of votes to draw upon, analysts say. Nawrocki was quick to agree to terms set by far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen, who, shortly after coming third in round one of the election, laid out conditions for a potential endorsement. The eight-point statement signed by Nawrocki live on Mentzen's YouTube channel includes a promise to veto any legislation that would raise taxes, limit free speech or ratify Ukraine's potential NATO membership. His campaign was rocked on Monday by the Onet media outlet's report that Nawrocki was involved in connecting hotel guests with sex workers and escorting them into a Sopot establishment where he was a security guard around 20 years ago. Nawrocki denied the allegations and said he would sue Onet -- one of Poland's main news websites -- calling the report a "bunch of lies". Prostitution is not illegal in Poland, but facilitating it is punishable by up to five years in jail. For Trzaskowski, an avowed Europhile, campaigning has become a delicate balancing act to charm some of the right-leaning voters while not disenchanting the left. Like Nawrocki, the Warsaw mayor also showed up for a conversation with Mentzen on his channel -- where he agreed with some items but declined to sign the statement. He was later photographed chatting over pints with Mentzen at the far-right leader's pub. 'Breaking away' from duopoly The job of the president in Poland is largely ceremonial but comes with crucial veto power. That has stymied Tusk, the prime minister, from delivering on his manifesto that included judicial reforms, changes to the abortion law and introducing civil unions. President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is not eligible to run after two terms in office, has signalled that he would veto such bills. But the ruling centrists have yet to vote them through in parliament. Trzaskowski has pledged, were he to win, to back measures to allow abortion until the 12th week of pregnancy. On LGBTQ rights, another hot-button issue in Catholic-majority Poland, Trzaskowski has said he backed the idea of civil unions, including for same-sex couples. But the pledges failed to convince young voters, who overwhelmingly voted for Mentzen, a Eurosceptic libertarian staunchly against abortion and migrants. According to an exit poll after the first round, Mentzen won in the 18-29 age group with over 36 percent, followed by left-wing candidate Adrian Zandberg with nearly 20 percent of votes. Both Mentzen and Zandberg relied on social media to boost their campaign outreach, and both ran on a platform to end the era of two main parties. Civic Platform and Law and Justice have by turns ruled Poland for the past 20 years. "Young people are breaking away from this duopoly," said Ewelina Nowakowska, a political analyst from the SWPS university. "There is a very strong tendency among them to look for new political parties and new faces," she told AFP.
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- General
- Yahoo
Poland to vote in razor-tight presidential election
Poland votes on Sunday in a hotly contested presidential runoff that will pit the pro-EU Warsaw mayor against a nationalist historian in a tight race that could extend the political deadlock in the NATO member nation. The two candidates -- Rafal Trzaskowski, backed by the ruling centrists, and Karol Nawrocki, a political novice supported by the opposition Law and Justice party -- are running neck-and-neck in opinion polls. The latest estimates have them tied at 46.3 percent of voting intentions, spelling a nail-biting final stretch of the campaign. The rivals have been scrambling for the past week to woo voters from across the political spectrum. "I promise you that I will be a president who unites, who is ready to talk to everyone," Trzaskowski told a crowd of supporters rallying in Warsaw on Sunday. Nawrocki held a rival demonstration at the same time -- with tens of thousands of people gathered for both events. Victory for Trzaskowski, 53, would be a major boost for Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief who returned to power in the 2023 parliamentary elections. The result will be closely watched across Europe and beyond as a win for Nawrocki could cast doubt on Poland's staunch support for neighbouring Ukraine. Nawrocki, 42, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has spoken against the benefits given to the one million Ukrainian refugees living in Poland. - Chatting over pints - Trzaskowski won the first round of the election on May 18 by a razor-thin margin, polling 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki. Far-right candidates received a combined 21.15 percent -- leaving Nawrocki buoyed and with a larger potential pool of votes to draw upon, analysts say. Nawrocki was quick to agree to terms set by far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen, who, shortly after coming third in round one of the election, laid out conditions for a potential endorsement. The eight-point statement signed by Nawrocki live on Mentzen's YouTube channel includes a promise to veto any legislation that would raise taxes, limit free speech or ratify Ukraine's potential NATO membership. His campaign was rocked on Monday by the Onet media outlet's report that Nawrocki was involved in connecting hotel guests with sex workers and escorting them into a Sopot establishment where he was a security guard around 20 years ago. Nawrocki denied the allegations and said he would sue Onet -- one of Poland's main news websites -- calling the report a "bunch of lies". Prostitution is not illegal in Poland, but facilitating it is punishable by up to five years in jail. For Trzaskowski, an avowed Europhile, campaigning has become a delicate balancing act to charm some of the right-leaning voters while not disenchanting the left. Like Nawrocki, the Warsaw mayor also showed up for a conversation with Mentzen on his channel -- where he agreed with some items but declined to sign the statement. He was later photographed chatting over pints with Mentzen at the far-right leader's pub. - 'Breaking away' from duopoly - The job of the president in Poland is largely ceremonial but comes with crucial veto power. That has stymied Tusk, the prime minister, from delivering on his manifesto that included judicial reforms, changes to the abortion law and introducing civil unions. President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is not eligible to run after two terms in office, has signalled that he would veto such bills. But the ruling centrists have yet to vote them through in parliament. Trzaskowski has pledged, were he to win, to back measures to allow abortion until the 12th week of pregnancy. On LGBTQ rights, another hot-button issue in Catholic-majority Poland, Trzaskowski has said he backed the idea of civil unions, including for same-sex couples. But the pledges failed to convince young voters, who overwhelmingly voted for Mentzen, a Eurosceptic libertarian staunchly against abortion and migrants. According to an exit poll after the first round, Mentzen won in the 18-29 age group with over 36 percent, followed by left-wing candidate Adrian Zandberg with nearly 20 percent of votes. Both Mentzen and Zandberg relied on social media to boost their campaign outreach, and both ran on a platform to end the era of two main parties. Civic Platform and Law and Justice have by turns ruled Poland for the past 20 years. "Young people are breaking away from this duopoly," said Ewelina Nowakowska, a political analyst from the SWPS university. "There is a very strong tendency among them to look for new political parties and new faces," she told AFP. mmp/giv
