Latest news with #EwaManthey
Zawya
29-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Base metals gain after US court puts brakes on Trump tariffs
Base metal prices gained on Thursday, lifted by market optimism after a federal court halted President Donald Trump's move to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from most of the United States' trading partners. The Court of International Trade blocked most of Trump's tariffs in a broad ruling on Wednesday that found the president had overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports. The Trump administration minutes later filed a notice of appeal and questioned the authority of the court. ING commodities analyst Ewa Manthey said base metals gained because the court ruling boosted risk appetite, though markets were likely to remain volatile as the administration fights the decision. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.4% to $9,603.5 per metric ton, by 1000 GMT. LME copper has rebounded nearly 19% since touching a 17-month low of $8,105 in April after Trump imposed his so-called reciprocal tariffs. Among other metals, LME aluminium gained 0.4% to $2,477.5 a ton, zinc rose 1% to $2,711.5, lead was flat at $1,982 and nickel gained 2.3% to $15,340. Tin was up 0.1% to $31,650. Gains were capped by a firmer U.S. dollar, which rose against major currencies, making dollar-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. Discussing the outlook for copper, Manthey noted that downside risks include prolonged trade negotiations and reduced policy stimulus from China. On the upside, prices could benefit from possible cuts in refined copper production amid ongoing tightness in concentrates, he said. Meanwhile, Chile's state copper commission Cochilco raised its average copper price forecast for this year and next, citing an improved global outlook following a pause in the tariff war between the United States and China. Market attention also remained fixed on Washington's ongoing investigation into potential copper import tariffs, which has kept the COMEX copper premium over the LME benchmark elevated and spurred a surge of metal inflows into COMEX-owned warehouses . U.S. Comex copper futures rose 0.9% to $4.75 a lb., bringing the premium of Comex over LME to $858 a ton. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Joe Bavier)
Business Recorder
13-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Copper up on temporary US-China trade truce
Copper prices rose on Tuesday after the United States said it would cut some tariffs on imports from China, where inventories have dropped significantly, though gains were capped by market caution. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.3% at $9,544 a metric ton as of 0940 GMT. The United States said on Monday it will cut the 'de minimis' tariff on low-value items imported from China, further de-escalating a trade war between the world's two largest economies. The order comes in the wake of Beijing and Washington announcing a temporary truce in their trade spat after weekend talks, with both sides agreeing to unwind most of the tariffs imposed on each other's goods since early April. 'Despite the optimism, there are reasons to remain cautious; the U.S.-China talks are only just beginning,' said ING commodities analyst Ewa Manthey. Manthey added that the tariffs remain significant and could impact raw material consumption, while a continued dollar rally might also pose a hurdle to metals prices. Copper steady ahead of US-China trade talks, focus on tighter nearby supply The dollar held most of its gains, lingering near one-month highs. A stronger U.S. currency makes metals costlier for other currency holders. Citi said in a note that copper prices 'can remain resilient' between $9,000-$10,000 in the coming weeks amid a tightening of China's physical copper indicators until tariff-related demand shocks materialise. Copper stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) stood at 80,705 tons last week, having dropped 70% since the end of February. Meanwhile, stocks in COMEX-owned warehouses rose to their highest levels since 2018. A pending probe in Washington that could lead to new copper tariffs is attracting metal into the United States. Among other metals, aluminium eased 0.2% to $2,474 a ton, zinc fell 0.5% to $2,667, lead gained 0.8% to $1,992.5, nickel fell 0.1% to $15,620 and tin slipped 0.1% at $32,550. Market focus is on U.S. inflation data later on Tuesday for clues to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.
BusinessToday
30-04-2025
- Business
- BusinessToday
Oil Prices Slide Nearly 3% Amid US-China Trade War And Demand Fears
Oil prices tumbled nearly 3% on Tuesday as persistent concerns over weakening global energy demand and escalating US-China trade tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Brent crude futures dropped 2.8% to just below US$64 per barrel by 4pm US Central time, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 3% to US$60 per barrel. Analysts from ING, Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson, said markets remain anxious that the ongoing trade war—spearheaded by the US—could significantly dent global energy demand. 'The latest release of US economic data signalled the slowing of the economy, while China pushed back against US tariffs, once again raising trade war concerns,' they said in a note. Adding to the bearish sentiment, reports suggest OPEC+ may move forward with production increases at its upcoming meeting next week. 'Downside risks for oil prices continue to persist as OPEC+ plans to revive production,' the ING analysts added. Energy consultancy PVM Oil Associates echoed similar concerns, stating that prolonged US-China tensions, coupled with stalled trade negotiations, are fuelling demand uncertainty. It also pointed to political risks involving Canada, noting that the recent electoral victory of the Liberal party led by former Bank of England governor Mark Carney—reportedly with inadvertent help from the US president—could spark renewed tensions with Washington. Further pressuring prices, refinery operations in the Iberian Peninsula were disrupted due to a massive power outage across Spain and Portugal, leading to temporary shutdowns that dented short-term crude demand. Despite the decline in oil, US equities edged higher on Tuesday, though gains remained under 1% as markets digested mixed economic data and corporate earnings. upstream Related
Wall Street Journal
05-03-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Europe's Gas Price Edges Higher After Tuesday's Fall
0923 GMT – European natural-gas prices edge higher in early trading following the previous session's decline, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 0.4% to 43.75 euros a megawatt hour. 'The European natural gas market sold off yesterday with TTF settling nearly 3.9% lower on the day,' ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say. 'We believe that the weakness is overdone given the tighter storage environment.' EU storage levels are currently 37.6% full, well below the five-year average. Meanwhile, growing uncertainties over the path to end the war in Ukraine continue to weigh on sentiment. 'The geopolitical backdrop remains fractured,' ANZ Research analysts say, highlighting that a peace agreement could pave the way for the return of some Russian gas flows. (
Euronews
11-02-2025
- Business
- Euronews
European gas prices spike to 2-year highs as storage levels falter
Just as Europe thought it had moved past the worst of its energy crisis, natural gas prices are surging once again, up 30% in the past month amid dwindling storage levels, colder temperatures, and supply uncertainties. With storage levels at their lowest for this time of year since winter 2022, the big question now is: can Europe refill its reserves in time for next winter? Why is Europe running low on gas? Natural gas futures on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the European benchmark, rose to €59 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday, reaching a two-year high. Winter has been stubborn, dragging on with colder temperatures that have forced homes and businesses to burn through gas supplies faster than anticipated. Across the European Union, storage levels have dropped to an average of 48.48%, as per Gas Infrastructure Europe data, well below where they should be at this point in the year. France, a major energy consumer, has the lowest storage rate in the bloc at just 29.85%, while the UK and Ukraine, both outside the EU, are sitting at even lower levels—25.73% and 9.33%, respectively. In contrast, Portugal's storage is completely full, while Sweden and Spain have healthier reserves at 88% and 69%, respectively. 'The recent price rally was fuelled by colder-than-average temperatures, reduced renewable power generation, and low inventory levels,' said ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. Stockpiling gas is now getting more expensive Normally, natural gas traders would start refilling storage during the spring and summer months when demand is lower and prices are more affordable. But this year, the market is making that strategy increasingly costly. "European gas balances have been much tighter than we expected," said Samantha Dart, a commodity analyst at Goldman Sachs. "To properly rebuild storage this summer, it's not enough for prices to simply remain above coal generation costs. They'll need to rise even higher to attract more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe." Goldman Sachs estimates that LNG imports need to be 8% higher than initially expected if Europe wants to get storage levels back to at least 85% by October. So far, February's LNG import data suggests this is possible—if prices hold near €50 per megawatt-hour ($15.10 per million British thermal units). But there are upside risks to gas prices. If gas demand for power generation remains unusually strong or if Asian buyers ramp up LNG imports, European prices could spike even further—potentially reaching €84 per megawatt-hour, which would be 68% higher than Goldman's base forecast. Germany considers subsidies to boost storage Germany, the EU's biggest economy, is now weighing financial incentives to help gas suppliers refill storage. As reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday, Trading Hub Europe GmbH (THE), which oversees Germany's gas market, is in discussions with policymakers about a potential subsidy scheme to encourage stockpiling. THE's managing director, Torsten Frank, said no decision had been made yet, adding that discussions with the ministry and regulator were still ongoing. He indicated that once the framework was finalised, further talks could take place regarding the timing of the product's launch. The move comes as part of a broader EU effort to ensure energy security. Since Russia slashed pipeline gas supplies in 2022, Brussels has imposed strict storage targets—requiring member states to fill reserves to at least 90% by November. These measures are set to expire at the end of this year, but the European Commission is likely to propose an extension. Could Russian gas return to Europe? One major wild card that could reshape the market is Russian gas. While the EU has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian energy, some gas still flows through Ukraine. If a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv were to be reached, it could open the door for increased shipments—potentially driving down prices. Goldman Sachs estimates that if Russian pipeline flows returned to pre-war levels, European gas prices for summer 2025 could drop between 36% and 56% below the current forecast of €50 per megawatt-hour. However, if supplies remain restricted at 2023-24 levels, the impact would be minimal, with only a 17% downside to 2026 price projections. What happens next? For now, all eyes are on the weather, LNG imports, and policy decisions in Brussels and Berlin. A colder-than-expected spring could further drain storage, while a sharp increase in Asian LNG demand could make restocking even more expensive. On the flip side, if temperatures stabilise and renewable energy output picks up, prices could ease. One thing is clear—Europe's energy security remains a delicate balancing act. As traders and policymakers navigate another volatile year, the fight to refill gas reserves is just beginning.
