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CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
While gold hogs the headlines, these other metals have promising technical set-ups, says Katie Stockton
Metals prices have shined year-to-date, with most metals having outperformed the S & P 500 Index and gold the standout relative performer. We believe gold's outperformance should persist given the positive long-term momentum that gold possesses in absolute terms and relative to equities. However, while gold seems to get all the press, there are other metals with promising technical set-ups that are worth a look from a technical perspective. Copper prices are higher Monday, unphased by weakness in metals affected by tariff headlines. The generic copper futures are above their 50-day, or ~10-week, moving average MA) in a pending breakout from a triangle pattern. Short-term momentum has shifted positive, increasing the likelihood that the weekly MACD (i.e., intermediate-term momentum) also flips positive, which suggests copper can continue to rally towards long-term resistance near $5.20/lb. Below this level, a long-term trading range is in place, so we feel a neutral long-term bias is appropriate for copper. Support is at the 200-day MA, near $4.43/lb. More important trendline support, near $4.08/lb., was briefly tested in April. Precious metals like gold and silver are in bullish long-term uptrends, but platinum is now on our radar as a potential catch-up opportunity. Last week, platinum confirmed a breakout above long-term triangle resistance, which is bullish for the next several months. Intermediate-term momentum is positive and strengthening per the weekly MACD, suggesting recent digestion will be brief and give way to additional upside follow-through. The next major resistance level we are watching for platinum is $1240/t oz., which is a long-term technical objective. This level is derived by a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which captured the 2021 high. Former resistance, near $1030/t oz., is now initial support. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes and not intended to be, nor construed as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, reflecting the author's current expectations, and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on broad-based indices, market conditions, different types of securities, and cryptocurrencies, using the discipline of technical analysis, which evaluates the demand and supply based on market pricing. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This document is intended for CNBC Pro subscribers only and is not for distribution to the general public. Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Fairlead Strategies undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Any investments made are made under the same terms as nonaffiliated investors and do not constitute a controlling interest. No liability is accepted by Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates, or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein. Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules, or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
CNBC
15-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
We could see a new low relative to the April low, says Fairlead's Katie Stockton
Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why she believes we're in the midst of a bear market cycle, long term outlook, bitcoin price trends, and more.
CNBC
12-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Buy the tech comeback or take profits? Katie Stockton uses charts to find an answer
Technology stocks are high-beta in nature, meaning they tend to lead the market on the upside and the downside, outperforming when the market is strong and underperforming when the market is weak. Given their tendency to lead the market (in both directions) and their 30% weighting in the S & P 500 Index (SPX) , it is important to have an understanding of where the technology sector stands from a technical perspective. Starting with a monthly bar chart, it is evident the Technology Select Sector SPDR has a secular uptrend in place above the rising monthly cloud model. Within that context, long-term momentum has weakened notably per the monthly MACD, which saw a bearish crossover at the end of March. The "sell" signal is the first since early 2022, and it has implications for at least 6 months of corrective price action, suggesting a cyclical bear market has taken hold. While the technology sector has technically entered a bear cycle, we ultimately expect secular bull to regain hold, likely sometime in 2026. Recently, XLK has rebounded strongly off the April low, with today's gap higher allowing the ETF to clear its 200-day moving average (MA): The breakout extends the rally in a near-term positive development, but the deterioration on the monthly chart is an overhang that suggests the rally may lose momentum abruptly. There is an area of supply on the chart in the $228-$241 zone, where XLK traded in a narrow range from early December through much of February. This is a natural place for the rally to stall, leaving former highs intact. As previously mentioned, technology stocks have a tendency to exhibit upside leadership during rallies and downside leadership during downdrafts. The latest upturn in the ratio of XLK to the SPX reflects outperformance while the market has rebounded. Preceding the upturn, the ratio saw a significant downdraft in Q1 that resulted in a breakdown, indicating a bearish shift in XLK's relative strength trend. This makes the current phase of outperformance appear counter-trend in nature, such that it is likely to be short-lived from here. Once there are signs that the relief rally in the major indices is maturing, we would be quick to reduce exposure to high-beta technology stocks. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes and not intended to be, nor construed as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, reflecting the author's current expectations, and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on broad-based indices, market conditions, different types of securities, and cryptocurrencies, using the discipline of technical analysis, which evaluates the demand and supply based on market pricing. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This document is intended for CNBC Pro subscribers only and is not for distribution to the general public. Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Fairlead Strategies undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Any investments made are made under the same terms as nonaffiliated investors and do not constitute a controlling interest. No liability is accepted by Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates, or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein. Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules, or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
CNBC
05-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Charts show this China tech ETF could be a better bet than U.S. tech, says Katie Stockton
Chinese technology stocks have seen a volatile start to 2025, with substantial short-term swings in both directions from ETF proxies like the KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB) . The choppy price action year-to-date is within a constructive long-term context, noting a long-term base has developed for KWEB. This is quite different from U.S. technology stocks, which have trended higher since 2023 and appear relatively overextended. KWEB established a cyclical uptrend after a base breakout late last year. A long-term uptrend line near $28 defines the gradual uptrend. This trendline was successfully tested during the latest bout of volatility, and our intermediate-term indicators have improved with the rally that is now underway. The weekly stochastics have an upturn to suggest that there is an increased likelihood that KWEB can make additional upside progress within the context of its intermediate-term trading range. The 50-day (~10-week) moving average (MA) is an initial hurdle on the chart, above which the top of the range shows resistance near $39. In the ratio of KWEB to the S & P 500 Index (SPX) , a long-term basing phase has a hold, as in absolute terms. This reflects relative stabilization over the past year for Chinese technology stocks versus the U.S. following a sharp phase of underperformance in 2023. The 12-month MAs point higher, suggesting additional outperformance from KWEB over the next year. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes and not intended to be, nor construed as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, reflecting the author's current expectations, and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on broad-based indices, market conditions, different types of securities, and cryptocurrencies, using the discipline of technical analysis, which evaluates the demand and supply based on market pricing. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This document is intended for CNBC Pro subscribers only and is not for distribution to the general public. Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Fairlead Strategies undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Fairlead Strategies or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Any investments made are made under the same terms as nonaffiliated investors and do not constitute a controlling interest. No liability is accepted by Fairlead Strategies, its officers, employees, affiliates, or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein. Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules, or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
CNBC
02-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
S&P 500 rally breaks short-term downtrend, but heavy resistance ahead
Recent chart patterns are indicating some positive trends for the S & P 500 after a volatile month. The broad market index is headed toward nine straight days of gains as of midday Friday — its longest winning streak since November 2004. After Thursday's gains, the S & P 500 was trading above its 50-day moving average for the first time in more than two months, according to Bespoke Investment Group. "The just-ended streak of 47 trading days of closing below the 50-DMA wasn't extreme by any historical sense, but it was the longest streak of closes below that level since July 2022," the firm said. To be sure, Bespoke noted that the S & P 500 still has more upside resistance at the 200-day moving average as well as its mid-March high. In addition, historic trends since 2000 show the performance of the benchmark market index "wasn't particularly impressive" in periods after it ended prior periods of at least two months below the 50-DMA, Bespoke said. "Looking back over the longer term, though, since 1953 (the first full year of the five-day trading week in its current form), forward returns have been positive, although still not particularly impressive, especially in the periods looking out less than a year," the researcher said. Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner Katie Stockton sees the next resistance level for the S & P 500 at 5,783, which was where it traded on Nov. 5, 2024, the day of the presidential election. Looking ahead, she notes that longer-term trends remain weak for the S & P 500 despite the short-term breakout that has reversed the index's losses since April 2, the day President Donald Trump's imposed high tariffs on imported goods. "We did see a breakdown that was more significant than the short-term breakout," said Stockton. "I call it a round trip — despite the recent bounce, the damage to the charts has been done."
