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Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Keep a close eye on these 2025 fantasy football ADPs throughout the summer
The NFL Draft is in the books and rosters are largely set. We now turn the page to fantasy football season as we analyze rosters with fresh faces in new places. Here, we'll take a look at some early rankings according to FantasyPros consensus and identify 10 ADPs worth tracking over the next few months. None of these takes, if they even count as takes, are written in pen just yet. Rather, these are storylines and possible market movements to watch from OTAs up to Week 1. I'm extremely fascinated to see where Justin Fields lands in fantasy drafts this summer. No, not when the best-ball sickos are drafting instead of spending time outside in July, but where he lands when regular human beings are ready to draft him come end of August. I wonder if those folks will be itching to take him at the QB12 spot he currently carries in consensus rankings. There are a couple of reasons this one fascinates me. For starters, it's been some years since we got a true non-rookie, late-round-quarterback, rushing-threat steal at the position. Anthony Richardson went in the fifth to sixth round of drafts last year. Lamar Jackson's second season may have been the last occurrence that drafters let a unique rushing threat who wasn't a rookie slip to the double-digit rounds. Say what you want about Fields but he is second among all quarterbacks in scramble yards since he entered the league. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] The second and more selfish reason is that I've been on the wrong side of every single quarterback reclamation project — Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, etc. — the last few seasons. While I have always been a Fields skeptic, and while I'm optimistic about the team's direction under Aaron Glenn, I am not convinced that the Jets match the Vikings or Buccaneers as an offensive ecosystem. However, I want to not completely shut the door on the idea that Fields goes down a Mayfield or Darnold path. I didn't draft Mike Evans in 2023 nearly enough, despite knowing how talented he is, and I would like to avoid that mistake with Garrett Wilson. The Patriots' second-year quarterback might be the other late-round, mobile QB to bet on in 2025. Drake Maye was almost never used as a designed rushing threat as a rookie but I'll bet that changes in Year 2 with Josh McDaniels in town. Maye has already mentioned watching some of the Cam Newton 2020 offense and the designed runs McDaniels cooked up that season. Last year, despite not starting a full season, Maye ranked second behind only Jayden Daniels in scramble yardage among quarterbacks. Those 407 yards made up almost all of his 421 rushing yards. He averaged 3.81 yards after contact per rush attempt, second-most in the NFL behind only Baker Mayfield. There's no question the community is sleeping on Maye's ability to be among the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. Right now, Maye is the consensus-ranked QB18. A summer's worth of steam over new additions to what was one of the worst ecosystems in 2024 could push that up. If it sticks, Maye will be on a ton of my Superflex teams as I'd prefer him straight-up to some of the pocket sloths in his own tier. The Seahawks hired Klint Kubiak in large part to revive a run game that had fallen apart under the watch of previous offensive coordinators. Seattle ranks 26th in rushing success rate over the last three seasons combined. If you can't tell by the last name, Kubiak comes from a coaching tree with a long line of proficient rushing concepts and his Saints ranked 13th in that same stat despite being a banged-up operation. The fantasy community has decided that Kenneth Walker III is the big winner of the Kubiak addition. He currently sits at RB16 in consensus rankings, sandwiched between proven bellcows Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara. Walker's teammate, Zach Charbonnet, is buried at RB36. Yes, previous staffs have deferred to Walker as the starter over Charbonnet when he's healthy. However, this is an entirely new group and Charbonnet finished the season strong. Per Fantasy Points Data, both backs had a much higher success rate on gap runs than zone concepts in 2024, which Kubiak leans into, nor was there a discernible difference in 2023 results. So, I'm not sure there is a clear scheme winner here. I don't have a strong take on this backfield but I'm skeptical the two backs should have such a massive gap in the rankings when new eyes may prefer Charbonnet to Walker or, at the very least, think these two should be in a committee. At the very least, it's a situation to monitor in camp. I've written about RJ Harvey extensively in other areas coming out of the NFL Draft. So I won't go overboard here, but he is the rookie running back I'm most convinced will get steamed by fantasy analysts this summer. As of now, Harvey is the RB23 in consensus rankings. I'll be flat out stunned if he doesn't pass guys like Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard, among others, by the time Week 1 rolls around. I'd love to be in on RJ Harvey this year. The Broncos were 11th in yards before contact per rush attempt on running back runs last season but 28th in yards after contact. Harvey was a broken-tackle machine in college. That's precisely why so many analysts love his game and were quick to assign the fabled 'this year's Bucky Irving' comparison. That last line is reason enough for me to wonder where he ends up going in fantasy drafts. Unlike Irving, Harvey won't be a secret. He was a Round 2 pick to a team desperate for running back help with a head coach known for productive backfields. I'll be shocked if his ADP isn't one of the fastest rising rocket ships this summer. [2025 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers] The Giants took Cam Skattebo in Round 4 with their running back depth chart a bit light coming into the NFL Draft. Their 2024 rookie, Tyrone Tracy Jr., was a fifth-rounder with a solid first season but who didn't turn in any results that would make him untouchable. Tracy is the RB31 in early consensus rankings right now but he's in a large tier of backs who carry no certainty. That's the right way to view Tracy, who not only has to contend with Skattebo but it appears most have forgotten coach favorite, Devin Singletary, is still on this roster. Every fantasy player is looking for a cheap possible starting running back late in drafts. Tracy flashed upside as a rookie and could be a nice candidate. We have to monitor training camp to see if the gap between Tracy at RB31 and Skattebo at RB41 is wide enough or if it needs to become tighter. The Vikings made a savvy trade prior to the NFL Draft and secured a strong running mate to Aaron Jones by acquiring Jordan Mason from San Francisco. Mason was one of the most productive runners in the NFL last season while stepping in for Christian McCaffrey. He was second in the NFL in rushing yards from Weeks 1 to 7 before injuries took a toll. The Vikings invested in the interior offensive line this offseason with the addition of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries in free agency and Donovan Jackson in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Yes, they want to create a pocket for J.J. McCarthy but the combined size of those three players also signals a desire to add more man and gap concepts to what's been a zone-heavy ground game. Mason averaged 5.95 yards per carry on gap runs last year, per Fantasy Points Data. Aaron Jones still has a lot left to offer but is another year older and an injury risk. My early lean is that the rankings of Jones at RB22 and Mason at RB40 should be a bit closer than they are right now. Liam Coen was the architect behind one of the league's best rushing ecosystems last season. A big portion of that was the talent Tampa Bay had on its offensive line and in the wide receiver room, which helped create monstrous space. However, Coen drew up a diverse and weaponized run game that felt dynamic on film every week. He deserves a ton of credit. If he's able to do even a fraction of that in Jacksonville, we're going to care about the running backs on this roster. Travis Etienne Jr. is a holdover from the previous regime and was starting to fall out of favor given his lack of explosiveness. If I had to guess who leads the team in carries, Tank Bigsby, as the best gap-based power runner, would have the best odds. Yet, it's Bhayshul Tuten who was drafted by this new brain trust and brings plenty of speed and passing-game ability to the table. Reports in the coming months will be key in deciphering if the Round 4 pick is going to play a role early on for the new-look Jaguars. Those very same reports could send his ADP well north of his early RB51 ranking. One of the great mysteries of the 2025 season is how volume, playing time and role designations will be handed out to the Bears primary pass-catchers. This offense is getting a full fresh start and an incoming blank slate for the holdovers with Ben Johnson coming into town. Right now, the fantasy community has decided that DJ Moore is the clear-cut lead man in the room. He's ranked as the 39th overall player which is a massive gap over Rome Odunze (81st), Colston Loveland (131st), Luther Burden III (137th) and Cole Kmet (192nd). I think Moore could experience a big revival in Johnson's offense and has the longest NFL resume but there is no way the veteran receiver's 2024 film impressed these new coaches. Be ready to ingest any clue about who will be the in-space pass-catcher, X-receiver or top slot over the next few months. We also need to find out whether this is going to be a 12- or 11-personnel-based team because that will speak to the limited ceiling of either Loveland or Burden. Finding the answers to those hints should cause ADP to be much more fluid than early rankings suggest. Subscribe to on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen. Chris Godwin was one of the correct answers in fantasy football last season. He ranked second in receiving yards behind only Ja'Marr Chase in Weeks 1 to 7 before his injury and paced wide receivers in catches. If he enters Week 1 with no health-based limitations, he is going to inevitably smash his current WR28 ranking and there is little doubt about it. However, we don't know that Godwin is healthy and the selection of Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 adds another talented body to the mix. Egbuka can also handle many of Godwin's power slot duties on offense. That doesn't have to be a bad sign for Godwin's progress but it's a new variable to consider. Egbuka can also win outside and merely send Jalen McMillan to the bench. He and Godwin can exist together. Godwin's ADP could certainly get much higher over the course of the next few months based on his progress. Sometimes summer injury optimism can lead us astray, but there are still so many paths for a big hit with a proven player. Early rankers and drafters don't know what to do with the 49ers wide receivers. The new top trio in a post-Deebo Samuel world of Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are jumbled between WR39 and 45. I'll say this with complete confidence: someone from this offense is outkicking WR39. Identifying who is tricky. Aiyuk was one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in 2023 and deserved the contract that took too long to come his way. Ultimately, that drought negotiation on both sides derailed his 2024 campaign, which was cut short with a major injury in Week 7. The impact of that multi-ligament knee tear could last into this season and drafters should be wary of what the early season may look like, no matter what summer reports hold. However, when he's back to full speed, I have the utmost confidence in the player. We saw Jennings and Pearsall play for much of last season but I'd caution folks who assume the hierarchy will look identical to 2024. Jennings is a good and reliable player but Pearsall was a first-rounder who played excellently in isolation last season once he recovered from being shot. Pearsall has the goods — Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) May 8, 2025 Right now, Pearsall goes last, and since I love his ability, he's the one I'll happily take the plunge with in drafts. He could absolutely lead this room in targets this season. I wonder if the order of these three players remains as it is now once we get to August.
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Keep a close eye on these 2025 fantasy football ADPs throughout the summer
The NFL Draft is in the books and rosters are largely set. We now turn the page to fantasy football season as we analyze rosters with fresh faces in new places. Here, we'll take a look at some early rankings according to FantasyPros consensus and identify 10 ADPs worth tracking over the next few months. None of these takes, if they even count as takes, are written in pen just yet. Rather, these are storylines and possible market movements to watch from OTAs up to Week 1. Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets I'm extremely fascinated to see where Justin Fields lands in fantasy drafts this summer. No, not when the best-ball sickos are drafting instead of spending time outside in July, but where he lands when regular human beings are ready to draft him come end of August. I wonder if those folks will be itching to take him at the QB12 spot he currently carries in consensus rankings. Advertisement There are a couple of reasons this one fascinates me. For starters, it's been some years since we got a true non-rookie, late-round-quarterback, rushing-threat steal at the position. Anthony Richardson went in the fifth to sixth round of drafts last year. Lamar Jackson's second season may have been the last occurrence that drafters let a unique rushing threat who wasn't a rookie slip to the double-digit rounds. Say what you want about Fields but he is second among all quarterbacks in scramble yards since he entered the league. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] The second and more selfish reason is that I've been on the wrong side of every single quarterback reclamation project — Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, etc. — the last few seasons. While I have always been a Fields skeptic, and while I'm optimistic about the team's direction under Aaron Glenn, I am not convinced that the Jets match the Vikings or Buccaneers as an offensive ecosystem. However, I want to not completely shut the door on the idea that Fields goes down a Mayfield or Darnold path. I didn't draft Mike Evans in 2023 nearly enough, despite knowing how talented he is, and I would like to avoid that mistake with Garrett Wilson. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots The Patriots' second-year quarterback might be the other late-round, mobile QB to bet on in 2025. Drake Maye was almost never used as a designed rushing threat as a rookie but I'll bet that changes in Year 2 with Josh McDaniels in town. Maye has already mentioned watching some of the Cam Newton 2020 offense and the designed runs McDaniels cooked up that season. Advertisement Last year, despite not starting a full season, Maye ranked second behind only Jayden Daniels in scramble yardage among quarterbacks. Those 407 yards made up almost all of his 421 rushing yards. He averaged 3.81 yards after contact per rush attempt, second-most in the NFL behind only Baker Mayfield. There's no question the community is sleeping on Maye's ability to be among the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. Right now, Maye is the consensus-ranked QB18. A summer's worth of steam over new additions to what was one of the worst ecosystems in 2024 could push that up. If it sticks, Maye will be on a ton of my Superflex teams as I'd prefer him straight-up to some of the pocket sloths in his own tier. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks The Seahawks hired Klint Kubiak in large part to revive a run game that had fallen apart under the watch of previous offensive coordinators. Seattle ranks 26th in rushing success rate over the last three seasons combined. If you can't tell by the last name, Kubiak comes from a coaching tree with a long line of proficient rushing concepts and his Saints ranked 13th in that same stat despite being a banged-up operation. Advertisement The fantasy community has decided that Kenneth Walker is the big winner of the Kubiak addition. He currently sits at RB16 in consensus rankings, sandwiched between proven bellcows Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara. Walker's teammate, Zach Charbonnet, is buried at RB36. Yes, previous staffs have deferred to Walker as the starter over Charbonnet when he's healthy. However, this is an entirely new group and Charbonnet finished the season strong. Per Fantasy Points Data, both backs had a much higher success rate on gap runs than zone concepts in 2024, which Kubiak leans into, nor was there a discernible difference in 2023 results. So, I'm not sure there is a clear scheme winner here. I don't have a strong take on this backfield but I'm skeptical the two backs should have such a massive gap in the rankings when new eyes may prefer Charbonnet to Walker or, at the very least, think these two should be in a committee. At the very least, it's a situation to monitor in camp. RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos I've written about RJ Harvey extensively in other areas coming out of the NFL Draft. So I won't go overboard here, but he is the rookie running back I'm most convinced will get steamed by fantasy analysts this summer. As of now, Harvey is the RB23 in consensus rankings. I'll be flat out stunned if he doesn't pass guys like Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard, among others, by the time Week 1 rolls around. Advertisement I'd love to be in on RJ Harvey this year. The Broncos were 11th in yards before contact per rush attempt on running back runs last season but 28th in yards after contact. Harvey was a broken-tackle machine in college. That's precisely why so many analysts love his game and were quick to assign the fabled 'this year's Bucky Irving' comparison. That last line is reason enough for me to wonder where he ends up going in fantasy drafts. Unlike Irving, Harvey won't be a secret. He was a Round 2 pick to a team desperate for running back help with a head coach known for productive backfields. I'll be shocked if his ADP isn't one of the fastest rising rocket ships this summer. Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants The Giants took Cam Skattebo in Round 4 with their running back depth chart a bit light coming into the NFL Draft. Their 2024 rookie, Tyrone Tracy Jr., was a fifth-rounder with a solid first season but who didn't turn in any results that would make him untouchable. Advertisement Tracy is the RB31 in early consensus rankings right now but he's in a large tier of backs who carry no certainty. That's the right way to view Tracy, who not only has to contend with Skattebo but it appears most have forgotten coach favorite, Devin Singletary, is still on this roster. Every fantasy player is looking for a cheap possible starting running back late in drafts. Tracy flashed upside as a rookie and could be a nice candidate. We have to monitor training camp to see if the gap between Tracy at RB31 and Skattebo at RB41 is wide enough or if it needs to become tighter. Jordan Mason, RB, Minnesota Vikings The Vikings made a savvy trade prior to the NFL Draft and secured a strong running mate to Aaron Jones by acquiring Jordan Mason from San Francisco. Mason was one of the most productive runners in the NFL last season while stepping in for Christian McCaffrey. He was second in the NFL in rushing yards from Weeks 1 to 7 before injuries took a toll. Advertisement The Vikings invested in the interior offensive line this offseason with the addition of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries in free agency and Donovan Jackson in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Yes, they want to create a pocket for J.J. McCarthy but the combined size of those three players also signals a desire to add more man and gap concepts to what's been a zone-heavy ground game. Mason averaged 5.95 yards per carry on gap runs last year, per Fantasy Points Data. Aaron Jones still has a lot left to offer but is another year older and an injury risk. My early lean is that the rankings of Jones at RB22 and Mason at RB40 should be a bit closer than they are right now. Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars Liam Coen was the architect behind one of the league's best rushing ecosystems last season. A big portion of that was the talent Tampa Bay had on its offensive line and in the wide receiver room, which helped create monstrous space. However, Coen drew up a diverse and weaponized run game that felt dynamic on film every week. He deserves a ton of credit. Advertisement If he's able to do even a fraction of that in Jacksonville, we're going to care about the running backs on this roster. Travis Etienne Jr. is a holdover from the previous regime and was starting to fall out of favor given his lack of explosiveness. If I had to guess who leads the team in carries, Tank Bigsby, as the best gap-based power runner, would have the best odds. Yet, it's Bhayshul Tuten who was drafted by this new brain trust and brings plenty of speed and passing-game ability to the table. Reports over the offseason will be key in deciphering if the Round 4 pick is going to play a role early on for the new-look Jaguars. Those very same reports could send his ADP well north of his early RB51 ranking. Chicago Bears pass-catchers One of the great mysteries of the 2025 season is how volume, playing time and role designations will be handed out to the Bears primary pass-catchers. This offense is getting a full fresh start and an incoming blank slate for the holdovers with Ben Johnson coming into town. Advertisement Right now, the fantasy community has decided that DJ Moore is the clear-cut lead man in the room. He's ranked as the 39th overall player which is a massive lead over Rome Odunze (81st), Colston Loveland (131st), Luther Burden III (137th) and Cole Kmet (192nd). I think Moore could experience a big revival in Johnson's offense and has the longest NFL resume but there is no way the veteran receiver's 2024 film impressed these new coaches. Be ready to ingest any clue about who will be the in-space pass-catcher, X-receiver or top slot over the next few months. We also need to find out whether this is going to be a 12- or 11-personnel-based team because that will speak to the limited ceiling of either Loveland or Burden. Finding the answers to those hints should cause ADP to be much more fluid than early rankings suggest. Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin was one of the correct answers in fantasy football last season. He ranked second in receiving yards behind only Ja'Marr Chase in Weeks 1 to 7 before his injury and paced wide receivers in catches. If he enters Week 1 with no health-based limitations, he is going to inevitably smash his current WR28 ranking and there is little doubt about it. Advertisement However, we don't know that Godwin is healthy and the selection of Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 adds another talented body to the mix. Egbuka can also handle many of Godwin's power slot duties on offense. That doesn't have to be a bad sign for Godwin's progress but it's a new variable to consider. Egbuka can also win outside and merely send Jalen McMillan to the bench. He and Godwin can exist together. Godwin's ADP could certainly get much higher over the course of the next few months based on his progress. Sometimes summer injury optimism can lead us astray, but there are still so many paths for a big hit with a proven player. San Francisco 49ers WRs Early rankers and drafters don't know what to do with the 49ers wide receivers. The new top trio in a post-Deebo Samuel world of Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are jumbled between WR39 and 45. Advertisement I'll say this with complete confidence: someone from this offense is outkicking WR39. Identifying who is tricky. Aiyuk was one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in 2023 and deserved the contract that took too long to come his way. Ultimately, that drought negotiation on both sides derailed his 2024 campaign, which was cut short with a major injury in Week 7. The impact of that multi-ligament tear could last into this season and drafters should be wary of what the early season may look like, no matter what summer reports hold. However, when he's back to full speed, I have the utmost confidence in the player. We saw Jennings and Pearsall play for much of last year but I'd caution folks who assume the hierarchy will look identical to 2024. Jennings is a good and reliable player but Pearsall was a first-rounder who played excellently in isolation last season once he recovered from being shot. Right now, Pearsall goes last, and since I love his ability, he's the one I'll happily take the plunge with in drafts. He could absolutely lead this room in targets next season. I wonder if the order of these three players remains as it is now once we get to August.
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Keep a close eye on these 2025 fantasy football ADPs throughout the summer
The NFL Draft is in the books and rosters are largely set. We now turn the page to fantasy football season as we analyze rosters with fresh faces in new places. Here, we'll take a look at some early rankings according to FantasyPros consensus and identify 10 ADPs worth tracking over the next few months. None of these takes, if they even count as takes, are written in pen just yet. Rather, these are storylines and possible market movements to watch from OTAs up to Week 1. I'm extremely fascinated to see where Justin Fields lands in fantasy drafts this summer. No, not when the best-ball sickos are drafting instead of spending time outside in July, but where he lands when regular human beings are ready to draft him come end of August. I wonder if those folks will be itching to take him at the QB12 spot he currently carries in consensus rankings. There are a couple of reasons this one fascinates me. For starters, it's been some years since we got a true non-rookie, late-round-quarterback, rushing-threat steal at the position. Anthony Richardson went in the fifth to sixth round of drafts last year. Lamar Jackson's second season may have been the last occurrence that drafters let a unique rushing threat who wasn't a rookie slip to the double-digit rounds. Say what you want about Fields but he is second among all quarterbacks in scramble yards since he entered the league. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] The second and more selfish reason is that I've been on the wrong side of every single quarterback reclamation project — Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, etc. — the last few seasons. While I have always been a Fields skeptic, and while I'm optimistic about the team's direction under Aaron Glenn, I am not convinced that the Jets match the Vikings or Buccaneers as an offensive ecosystem. However, I want to not completely shut the door on the idea that Fields goes down a Mayfield or Darnold path. I didn't draft Mike Evans in 2023 nearly enough, despite knowing how talented he is, and I would like to avoid that mistake with Garrett Wilson. The Patriots' second-year quarterback might be the other late-round, mobile QB to bet on in 2025. Drake Maye was almost never used as a designed rushing threat as a rookie but I'll bet that changes in Year 2 with Josh McDaniels in town. Maye has already mentioned watching some of the Cam Newton 2020 offense and the designed runs McDaniels cooked up that season. Last year, despite not starting a full season, Maye ranked second behind only Jayden Daniels in scramble yardage among quarterbacks. Those 407 yards made up almost all of his 421 rushing yards. He averaged 3.81 yards after contact per rush attempt, second-most in the NFL behind only Baker Mayfield. There's no question the community is sleeping on Maye's ability to be among the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. Right now, Maye is the consensus-ranked QB18. A summer's worth of steam over new additions to what was one of the worst ecosystems in 2024 could push that up. If it sticks, Maye will be on a ton of my Superflex teams as I'd prefer him straight-up to some of the pocket sloths in his own tier. The Seahawks hired Klint Kubiak in large part to revive a run game that had fallen apart under the watch of previous offensive coordinators. Seattle ranks 26th in rushing success rate over the last three seasons combined. If you can't tell by the last name, Kubiak comes from a coaching tree with a long line of proficient rushing concepts and his Saints ranked 13th in that same stat despite being a banged-up operation. The fantasy community has decided that Kenneth Walker is the big winner of the Kubiak addition. He currently sits at RB16 in consensus rankings, sandwiched between proven bellcows Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara. Walker's teammate, Zach Charbonnet, is buried at RB36. Yes, previous staffs have deferred to Walker as the starter over Charbonnet when he's healthy. However, this is an entirely new group and Charbonnet finished the season strong. Per Fantasy Points Data, both backs had a much higher success rate on gap runs than zone concepts in 2024, which Kubiak leans into, nor was there a discernible difference in 2023 results. So, I'm not sure there is a clear scheme winner here. I don't have a strong take on this backfield but I'm skeptical the two backs should have such a massive gap in the rankings when new eyes may prefer Charbonnet to Walker or, at the very least, think these two should be in a committee. At the very least, it's a situation to monitor in camp. I've written about RJ Harvey extensively in other areas coming out of the NFL Draft. So I won't go overboard here, but he is the rookie running back I'm most convinced will get steamed by fantasy analysts this summer. As of now, Harvey is the RB23 in consensus rankings. I'll be flat out stunned if he doesn't pass guys like Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard, among others, by the time Week 1 rolls around. I'd love to be in on RJ Harvey this year. The Broncos were 11th in yards before contact per rush attempt on running back runs last season but 28th in yards after contact. Harvey was a broken-tackle machine in college. That's precisely why so many analysts love his game and were quick to assign the fabled 'this year's Bucky Irving' comparison. That last line is reason enough for me to wonder where he ends up going in fantasy drafts. Unlike Irving, Harvey won't be a secret. He was a Round 2 pick to a team desperate for running back help with a head coach known for productive backfields. I'll be shocked if his ADP isn't one of the fastest rising rocket ships this summer. The Giants took Cam Skattebo in Round 4 with their running back depth chart a bit light coming into the NFL Draft. Their 2024 rookie, Tyrone Tracy Jr., was a fifth-rounder with a solid first season but who didn't turn in any results that would make him untouchable. Tracy is the RB31 in early consensus rankings right now but he's in a large tier of backs who carry no certainty. That's the right way to view Tracy, who not only has to contend with Skattebo but it appears most have forgotten coach favorite, Devin Singletary, is still on this roster. Every fantasy player is looking for a cheap possible starting running back late in drafts. Tracy flashed upside as a rookie and could be a nice candidate. We have to monitor training camp to see if the gap between Tracy at RB31 and Skattebo at RB41 is wide enough or if it needs to become tighter. The Vikings made a savvy trade prior to the NFL Draft and secured a strong running mate to Aaron Jones by acquiring Jordan Mason from San Francisco. Mason was one of the most productive runners in the NFL last season while stepping in for Christian McCaffrey. He was second in the NFL in rushing yards from Weeks 1 to 7 before injuries took a toll. The Vikings invested in the interior offensive line this offseason with the addition of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries in free agency and Donovan Jackson in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Yes, they want to create a pocket for J.J. McCarthy but the combined size of those three players also signals a desire to add more man and gap concepts to what's been a zone-heavy ground game. Mason averaged 5.95 yards per carry on gap runs last year, per Fantasy Points Data. Aaron Jones still has a lot left to offer but is another year older and an injury risk. My early lean is that the rankings of Jones at RB22 and Mason at RB40 should be a bit closer than they are right now. Liam Coen was the architect behind one of the league's best rushing ecosystems last season. A big portion of that was the talent Tampa Bay had on its offensive line and in the wide receiver room, which helped create monstrous space. However, Coen drew up a diverse and weaponized run game that felt dynamic on film every week. He deserves a ton of credit. If he's able to do even a fraction of that in Jacksonville, we're going to care about the running backs on this roster. Travis Etienne Jr. is a holdover from the previous regime and was starting to fall out of favor given his lack of explosiveness. If I had to guess who leads the team in carries, Tank Bigsby, as the best gap-based power runner, would have the best odds. Yet, it's Bhayshul Tuten who was drafted by this new brain trust and brings plenty of speed and passing-game ability to the table. Reports over the offseason will be key in deciphering if the Round 4 pick is going to play a role early on for the new-look Jaguars. Those very same reports could send his ADP well north of his early RB51 ranking. One of the great mysteries of the 2025 season is how volume, playing time and role designations will be handed out to the Bears primary pass-catchers. This offense is getting a full fresh start and an incoming blank slate for the holdovers with Ben Johnson coming into town. Right now, the fantasy community has decided that DJ Moore is the clear-cut lead man in the room. He's ranked as the 39th overall player which is a massive lead over Rome Odunze (81st), Colston Loveland (131st), Luther Burden III (137th) and Cole Kmet (192nd). I think Moore could experience a big revival in Johnson's offense and has the longest NFL resume but there is no way the veteran receiver's 2024 film impressed these new coaches. Be ready to ingest any clue about who will be the in-space pass-catcher, X-receiver or top slot over the next few months. We also need to find out whether this is going to be a 12- or 11-personnel-based team because that will speak to the limited ceiling of either Loveland or Burden. Finding the answers to those hints should cause ADP to be much more fluid than early rankings suggest. Chris Godwin was one of the correct answers in fantasy football last season. He ranked second in receiving yards behind only Ja'Marr Chase in Weeks 1 to 7 before his injury and paced wide receivers in catches. If he enters Week 1 with no health-based limitations, he is going to inevitably smash his current WR28 ranking and there is little doubt about it. However, we don't know that Godwin is healthy and the selection of Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 adds another talented body to the mix. Egbuka can also handle many of Godwin's power slot duties on offense. That doesn't have to be a bad sign for Godwin's progress but it's a new variable to consider. Egbuka can also win outside and merely send Jalen McMillan to the bench. He and Godwin can exist together. Godwin's ADP could certainly get much higher over the course of the next few months based on his progress. Sometimes summer injury optimism can lead us astray, but there are still so many paths for a big hit with a proven player. Early rankers and drafters don't know what to do with the 49ers wide receivers. The new top trio in a post-Deebo Samuel world of Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are jumbled between WR39 and 45. I'll say this with complete confidence: someone from this offense is outkicking WR39. Identifying who is tricky. Aiyuk was one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in 2023 and deserved the contract that took too long to come his way. Ultimately, that drought negotiation on both sides derailed his 2024 campaign, which was cut short with a major injury in Week 7. The impact of that multi-ligament tear could last into this season and drafters should be wary of what the early season may look like, no matter what summer reports hold. However, when he's back to full speed, I have the utmost confidence in the player. We saw Jennings and Pearsall play for much of last year but I'd caution folks who assume the hierarchy will look identical to 2024. Jennings is a good and reliable player but Pearsall was a first-rounder who played excellently in isolation last season once he recovered from being shot. Pearsall has the goods — Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) May 8, 2025 Right now, Pearsall goes last, and since I love his ability, he's the one I'll happily take the plunge with in drafts. He could absolutely lead this room in targets next season. I wonder if the order of these three players remains as it is now once we get to August.
New York Times
30-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Dynasty league SuperFlex rookie mock draft, starting with the ‘Magnificent Seven'
Earlier this week, I gave you my Top 30 SuperFlex Rookies. Now, I'm taking that list, overlaying what I'm seeing on social, and assembling my first three-round-rookie SuperFlex mock draft. The key with this exercise is that I'm not simply using my top 30 list to perform the mock. I'm using social discussion, live drafts and momentum to determine when the rookies will be selected, regardless of my personal opinions about them. Advertisement You can find my full set of rankings here on Fantasy Pros. 1.01 Ashton Jeanty, RB, LV We're not getting cute here; Jeanty is going to be the top selection. My take: Jeanty is not without faults. He needs to work on ball security, and his pass protection leaves much to be desired. Additionally, the Raiders' offensive line is anything but stellar. But there's no questioning his dynamic, tackle-breaking ability or workload potential. 1.02 Omarion Hampton, RB, LAC Hampton is on Jeanty's heels for top back in the draft, and it won't surprise me if his numbers exceed Jeanty's five years in the future. Good long speed, three-down ability and excellent pass protection skills behind a plus-level offensive line is as good a setup as you can ask for in terms of early-career production. My take: Travis Hunter could be in play here, and managers may need to be patient as the workload balance with offseason acquisition Najee Harris is determined, but there's little doubt about his long-term runway. 1.03 Travis Hunter, WR, JAX The unicorn is going to be in play for 1.02, but if you aren't playing within an IDP format, there may be just enough risk to downgrade him a slot or two. He's raw as a receiver but with a skill set that can't be taught. Great character, an off-the-charts athletic profile and a tireless work ethic are hard to fade. My take: I still take Hampton at 1.02 unless I'm flush at running back. Cam Ward is also a possibility here. Otherwise, select Hunter and reap what should be a long career of production. 1.04 Cam Ward, WR, TEN No, he's not up to the quality we normally expect at the top of the draft. But, in SuperFlex, if you have a deficit at the position, you can't afford to pass on the opportunity. Ward possesses enough intriguing aspects to be of high-ceiling potential. Advertisement My take: I've seen some mocks with Ward falling below 1.06. Not going to happen. In SuperFlex, quarterbacks remain the coin of the realm, and if you don't have two starters, you need to sell out to obtain them. Yes, 1.04 could be considered a bit rich, but there's little choice if you have a need. 1.05 Tetairoa McMillan, WR, CAR Truly an 'eye of the beholder' pick as multiple running backs, McMillan and even Tyler Warren could be in play with this pick. There are no wrong answers here, as you can expect managers to overlay a healthy degree of 'need' into this selection. My take: There's something about McMillan that doesn't grab me when balanced against the upside of TreVeyon Henderson, who would be my pick. No questioning Tet's role and upside, but Henderson is my choice. 1.06 TreVeyon Henderson, RB, NE Conjuring some Jahmyr Gibbs comps, Henderson is built a bit thicker, though he doesn't quite have the same 'it' factor. He's close enough in comp to hit as long as he garners touches early. He could be a 60-reception back in his rookie season. My take: I would have selected Henderson a slot above and, if solid at quarterback, above Ward at 1.04. I'm not particularly fond of the Patriots' skill players, but I like the direction the team is heading and am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. 1.07 Quinshon Judkins, RB, CLE I have seen Judkins mocked above Henderson due to opportunity. I don't see it. He's a solid back, decent in pass protection, but could well lose out to Dylan Sampson for third-down work. Furthermore, while I've had pushback on this, Jerome Ford still factors — his stats don't lie. My take: Judkins rounds out what I consider to be the 'Magnificent Seven' in this draft, eight if you want to include Tyler Warren. 1.08 Tyler Warren, TE, IND Quarterback quality and scheme fit are an issue here, but Warren projects as a difference-maker and should get plenty of targets to help Anthony Richardson take his next step. Warren's production profiles better with Daniel Jones under center, but I'm not projecting that to start the season. Advertisement My take: I'm not fond of taking rookie TEs early, but I made an exception for Brock Bowers in '24. I won't force a selection of Warren higher, but it fits here at 1.08. 1.09 Colston Loveland, TE, CHI I have concerns about the role and target share aside from being yet another first-round tight end, but I expect to see these two back-to-back in most drafts. My take: I still favor Warren and don't think highly enough of Loveland's drafted situation to select him in the top 10. He's no better than 1.11 on my board. 1.10 RJ Harvey, RB, DEN Social is partying like it's 1999 when it comes to Harvey. Sean Payton's 'Joker' role has received so much press in recent months that any RB selected by the Broncos had built-in momentum. Enter Harvey, a 24-year-old rookie. So much momentum is building that even 1.10 may be too late if you fancy him as a selection. My take: I like Harvey as a back. He was my RB8 before the draft and RB6 following. Age is an issue. Running backs are being faded by many and aging out in their age-27 season in fantasy. His skill set is a good one, but he's undersized, not proficient in pass protection, has competition on the depth chart, and the Broncos could still add another back (Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins) in free agency. He profiles as a complementary piece until proven otherwise. I'm not risking a first-round selection on that profile. To wit, Audric Estime was trending last year at this time, but the sands of time have forgotten. 1.11 Kaleb Johnson, RB, PIT It's a great fit for the big downhill runner. He'll share carries with Jaylen Warren, but the Steelers are a run-first offense, and Johnson should be an early-down producer. My take: I prefer Johnson as a selection later, after the next two receivers, but if you have a need, this selection fills it. Advertisement 1.12 Jaxson Dart, QB, NYG Based on team need, Dart could be in play anywhere from 1.09 on. Managers will need to remain patient, but he'll likely see the field in the second half of 2025. My take: Again, SuperFlex. If you have the need, you roll the dice and take your chances. If anything, it's a stroke of luck he falls this far, so you take it and hope. 2.01 Matthew Golden, WR, GB My take: I trust Green Bay when it comes to receiver scouting. Pittsburgh is a close second. The Packers haven't drafted a receiver in the first round since 2002, so this tells you something. He's a value pick here and should see snaps from Week 1. 2.02 Emeka Egbuka, WR, TB My take: Many are calling for the Egbuka to push out 2024 rookie Jalen McMillan in the starting lineup. I don't see it! One look at McMillan's rookie production tells the story. But I love Egbuka, and if you can get him here, run, don't walk! I'm fine with him as high as 1.09, or 1.08 if you have no need at TE. 2.03 Luther Burden, WR, CHI My take: Burden is picking up momentum now, elevating him over the next two names on the list. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago, and I like Burden closer to 2.05. 2.04 Tre Harris, WR, LAC My take: I watched Harris more than any other receiver this past year. He's made for the NFL and, if he can stay healthy, he's a long-term starter. He should be starting from Day 1. 2.05 Cam Skattebo, RB, NYG My take: This is too early for Skattebo, but I acknowledge he's intriguing. He's picking up social momentum, with some calling for him to start over second-year back Tyrone Tracy Jr. I don't see it — I see primarily a short-yardage specialist+. 2.06 Jayden Higgins, WR, HOU My take: Size, speed, and hands are enough for Higgins to be starting across from Nico Collins to begin the 2025 season. He's not a quick-twitch athlete, and his route tree needs work, but he has what it takes to thrive in the NFL. Advertisement 2.07 Jack Bech, WR, LV My take: Bech also continues to gain momentum. Word is he projects as a Day 1 starter. He's not a sexy pick, but neither was Cooper Kupp. 2.08 Mason Taylor, TE, NYJ My take: I'm good with this spot for Taylor, and he's a value play anywhere after this. He should be starting Day 1. 2.09 Kyle Williams, WR, NE My take: Also trending, Williams would be higher on this list if he were drafted into any other situation. He's fluid and productive, something the Patriots haven't had in years. 2.10 Bhayshul Tuten, RB, JAX My take: Tuten lit up the NFL Combine, and his situation is better than it appears, with Etienne likely moving on in 2026, if not sooner, via trade. 2.11 Tyler Shough, QB, NO My take: In SuperFlex, it doesn't have to be pretty. The old rookie could be starting in 2025. Enough said. 2.12 Jaylin Noel, WR, HOU My take: This is the period in the draft where I begin losing interest. I'm lower on Noel than this selection — I prefer him in the mid-third. 3.01 Jalen Milroe, QB, SEA My take: Ultra-athletic. You spin the wheel, you take your chances. 3.02 Jalen Royals, WR, KC My take: Any receiver with Patrick Mahomes receives some wind in his sails. 3.03 Dylan Sampson, RB, CLE My take: He was my pre-draft sleeper pick, and this situation is better than advertised. 3.04 Elijah Arroyo, TE, SEA My take: Noah Fant has underwhelmed. Arroyo could see time as a rookie. 3.05 Trevor Etienne, RB, CAR My take: The situation is fine. If he's healthy, he's a worthy stash here. 3.06 Jordan James, RB, SF My take: The 49ers know running backs. He's rising. 3.07 Terrance Ferguson, TE, LAR My take: Sean McVay mentioned Travis Kelce. In a good scheme, that alone is worth the shot. 3.08 Will Howard, QB, PIT My take: You'll need to be patient, but the setup is a good one. Advertisement 3.09 Jaydon Blue, RB, DAL My take: The Cowboys did little, and that alone raises Blue's stock. Expect a free-agent addition, however. 3.10 Shedeur Sanders, QB, CLE My take: You have to believe Sanders will beat out Dillon, don't you? 3.11 Elic Ayomanor, WR, TEN My take: He's a bit one-dimensional, but his size and drafted situation are worth a shot. 3.12 Pat Bryant, WR, DEN My take: He's been rising since the draft. If this is my mock, he doesn't make the cut. If you have any questions or comments, please leave them below. I look forward to interacting with my readers. And please give me a follow on Twitter and Threads: @DLF_Jeff. (Top photo of Treyveyon Henderson: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
New York Times
17-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
A pick-by-pick guide to the first round of a dynasty league SuperFlex rookie draft
The NFL draft is right around the corner, which means it's my favorite time of the year to talk dynasty. In this piece, I'm taking you pick-by-pick through the first round of upcoming dynasty rookie drafts to let you in on my strategy for each selection. Each draft season has nuance, and 2025 is no exception. The strategy default is for SuperFlex formats. Simply kick the quarterbacks down a round or so if you are playing in a single-QB setup. Advertisement One note before beginning: Please check out my rookie and dynasty rankings here on Fantasy Pros. Pick Projection: Ashton Jeanty, RB Jeanty is as close to a can't-miss prospect as you'll find. Whether he's 'generational' is debatable, but he checks all the boxes in my definition. If this had been a stronger quarterback class, the gap might have been closer, but 2025 is not that year. If Jeanty is selected by the New York Giants, though, my confidence could be shaken. The 1.01 selection should yield 2.5 first-round assets in return in normal years, but Jeanty is so strong as a prospect that I believe the compensation would be three first-round assets in return. Make sure at least one is a known productive asset. The likelihood of my trading this selection is very low. Pick Projection: Omarion Hampton, RB If not for Jeanty, Hampton would be flying high as my 1.01 projection. I like him equally, and it's not out of the question that a surprise poor drafted situation for Jeanty (Giants, who pick third overall), coupled with Hampton falling to the Dallas Cowboys, could alter my strategy. I won't be prioritizing quarterback with this pick, though there will be plenty of dynasty managers looking to add Cam Ward here. I'm an outlier, ranking Hampton as my 1.02. Rookie quarterbacks have typically not fared well in the NFL, and Ward would not be the top prospect in most years. For that reason, I'll take the historically high athletic score of Hampton. Hampton does not possess the premium that Jeanty does at the 1.01, so you'd likely only receive two first-round assets in return for the selection. If trading away this pick, I'm targeting a return pick in the top five plus a 'known' starter. Pick Projection: Cam Ward, QB Ward's selection at the top of the NFL draft has been all but solidified. The Tennessee Titans have done their homework and seem to be comfortable with him. Whether Ward is a typical 1.01 NFL selection is debatable, with most believing he's simply the best prospect in a weak class. I'm of that mindset as well. Advertisement This presents some interesting trade opportunities unless you have a dire need at quarterback, in which case a selection of Ward is warranted. Absent that need, I'd be looking to trade this selection in a similar fashion to 1.02, dropping back no more than three selections and looking for a known asset in return. The existence of Shedeur Sanders and Jaxon Dart is lessening the premium attached to Ward. Pick Projection: TreVeyon Henderson, RB Some prefer Henderson over Hampton, seeking the 2025 version of Jahmyr Gibbs. The 1.04 selection is interesting. Managers may seek to take the first receiver off the board at this spot, though I believe 1.05 is better suited for such a play. With the right drafted situation, Henderson could be highly sought after, especially should he sneak into the bottom of Round 1 to the Chiefs. Henderson's profile is a short stone's throw from that of Gibbs and, thus, may command a premium in trade. If you're flush at running back, there may be an opportunity to trade back, picking up a later first-rounder and a player in return. Henderson or fellow OSU back Quinshon Judkins will likely fall to a less-than-ideal situation, providing more premium for this selection. I'm likely to stick-and-pick with Henderson as my target, letting Sanders fall, but I will entertain offers. I believe there is a high likelihood that the first four picks will comprise the four players I have outlined here, though not necessarily in this order, depending on the team's quarterback need. Pick Projection: Tetairoa McMillan, WR This is where the draft starts with four players clearly in play at this selection, depending on the team's need. I have McMillan and Judkins equally ranked here. The drafted situation will be key in determining which player is off the board first. Advertisement The 1.05 spot is clearly a make-me-an-offer selection. The rights for the first receiver off the board should provide a premium, as would the second quarterback selection. The fourth running back, Judkins, may be situation-dependent given his profile. The wild cards in this round are the landing spots for tight end Tyler Warren and receiver Matthew Golden. There's also an anomaly here in that I have Emeka Egbuka ranked higher than Golden, something you won't see often in the rankings of others. I'm in the market for a known-asset trade here, but I would draft based on need otherwise. Pick Projection: Shedeur Sanders, QB If there's a need at quarterback, it's hard not to select Sanders this late in the first. He possesses a high ceiling and low floor, in my opinion, but when in need, you have few choices in this format. I'll be looking to get out of 1.06 if I don't have a dire quarterback need. The farther Sanders falls, the more offers you should receive for the selection. Work the trade wires hard, looking to trade back one to three selections while picking up additional assets. Pick Projection: Quinshon Judkins, RB There's a lot of pick flux here with Judkins, based on drafted situation and quarterback needs of other managers. In a good situation, he could go as high as 1.05. In a projected backfield time-share role, he may fall to 1.10 or 1.11. I'm high on Judkins' profile. If he's available, I'm likely to make the selection. At this point in the draft, I'm always willing to trade back one or two selections if it means also picking up a second-round selection in return. My target would still be Judkins, so any trade made here would only be finalized if my confidence in Judkins wanes. Pick Projection: Tyler Warren, TE Warren should be neck-and-neck with Golden coming off the board. Warren projects as a Day 1 impact player in the NFL, with some looking for Sam LaPorta rookie numbers. After Sanders leaves the board, the pick premium will dip, though a good opportunity for Jaxson Dart could increase the intrigue. I have my doubts about Golden in the NFL, but Warren projects well. Like pick 1.06, I'm fielding offers. I'll be looking to trade back, or out of the first round entirely, in return for a known quantity. In the absence of that, I'll drop back one to three selections if I can pick up a high second-rounder. Advertisement Pick Projection: Matthew Golden, WR As mentioned, most rank Golden far higher than I do, and there's potential for him to be the first receiver selected, ahead of McMillan, who is occupying the 1.05 slot here. There's no clear-cut WR1 in this draft, but there is potential. I often remind myself not to fall in love with players, but instead, allow other managers to do so, which creates an intriguing arbitrage opportunity. Working in your favor may be the desire for QB3 Dart. I tend to prefer picking at 1.08, often securing better quality players, while managers, instead, give greater priority to where a player is going in the NFL. Because of the quality of players available later in the first round, I'll likely be making this pick unless I'm blown away with an offer. Golden, Egbuka and Dart are all in play, though Dart is ranked decidedly lower in my rankings. Pick Projection: Jaxson Dart, QB In SuperFlex leagues, quarterbacks are the coin of the realm, even if they are the QB3 and possess a lot of risk, which is the case here. The strategy is simply peddling the pick to a quarterback-needy team with few options. Look to pick up a second-rounder and/or a future first-rounder for the right to select Dart. If the team is needy, you can drive even more premium into the selection. For less risk, target a known asset with youth on his side. If you end up making this pick and don't need a quarterback, I favor Egbuka, a receiver in the mold of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Pick Projection: Travis Hunter, WR There's arguably no greater wild-card selection in 2025 than Hunter. If he's labeled as a receiver by his selecting team, he projects as this year's risk-on WR1, or no less than the WR2. Given the risk, a selecting manager must acknowledge that this selection could bust due to limited offensive snaps. If playing in an IDP league, he's in play as the 1.02. If available at 1.10, I'm hard-pressed not to make the selection here and take the risk he's a long-term WR1 with limited defensive snaps. That type of upside is tough to pass up late in the first round. Pick Projection: Emeka Egbuka, WR Egbuka gives off a lot of Smith-Njigba vibes, and it would be hard to pass on the opportunity to add him, especially if selected late in the first round of the NFL draft into a quality quarterback situation. He's not as sudden or crafty as JSN, but he possesses a high WR-IQ and has NFL upside. Advertisement If in the 12-hole, I'm seeking to trade out, either for a 2026 first-round selection or a mid-career productive veteran. Every year, some productive players face a social herd mentality fade. This year, players like Najee Harris, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin, Chris Olave and Kyle Pitts are just some of the names that make for an intriguing addition in return for a late-round selection. The availability of Egbuka here makes for a fine fall-back plan. I hope you enjoyed this look at my strategy for Round 1 of 2025 dynasty rookie drafts. In a week, I will provide the final piece of the puzzle, and my rankings will soon follow. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them below. I look forward to interacting with my readers. Please follow me on Twitter and Threads: @DLF_Jeff. Be happy, be well, and please, be good to each other! (Top photo of Jaxson Dart: Justin Ford / Getty Images)
